Alabama World Affairs Council: Notes, 2010-11These notes by Jeremy Lewis do not represent the views of AWAC, its Board, or other members.
Bret Stephens, key points of speech to AWAC, YouTube, 3'
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Drs. Burgess and Nathan, 10 May
Drs Conversino and Burgess, 10 May
28 September 2010: Gen. Tom McInerney, conservative commentator on Military affairs
26 October 26 2010: Amb. Ivan Barbalic, Ambassador of Bosnia and Herzegovina to the United Nations
16 November 2010: Dennis Lockhart, "The Dollar, The Economy: Does the Fed Matter?" President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
1 February 2011: Future of Korea, panel of speakers [Biographies]: Ambassador Charles (Jack) Pritchard, President, Korea Economic Institute; Mr. Greg Scarlatoiu, Director of Business Issues and Public Affairs, Korea Economic Institute; and Aloysius O'Neill, consultant, Office of Korean Affairs, U.S. Department of State. Play Voice track
8 March 2011: Charlie Kupchan, "Enemies Into Friends: How Peace Breaks Out," Professor of International Affairs at Georgetown University
15 March 2011: Col. Andrew Bacevich, PhD, will give the annual Stallworth lecture at Huntingdon College. President West warmly invites AWAC members to this free event, 7pm in Ligon Chapel.
10 May 2011: Senior Air War College Instructors report on their regional tours
28 September 2010: Tom McInerney, conservative commentator on Military affairs
NOTES ON SPEAKERSIntroduction: speaker, notably, was involved in the 'reinventing government' reforms under which technology was applied to the military in quest of administrative efficiency.
Fox News military analyst President, consulting firm, Government Reform through Technology (GRTT) 1996-1999, President, Business Executives for National Security (BENS) 1994-1996, Vice Pres, Command and Control, Loral Defense Systems-Eagen 35 years as combat pilot, commander, and strategic planner in USAF BS, United States Military Academy, 1959; MS, GeorgeWashington University, 1972
Prepared RemarksWhen in USAF involved in many parts of world other than Middle East.Question Time
Wrote article in 1998 about the need to eliminate Osama Bin Laden (OBL).
1986 involved in Counter Terrorism (CT) to prevent a major terrorist event.
Jwari, global war against radical Islam, ideology as evil as Nazism, fascism and communism.
Islam as ideology rather than religion. The Hajj, the words of the prophet, and Sharia law which violates US constitution: honor killings, etc.
War is not merely “overseas contingency”. 15,000 attacks – but US national security (NS) adviser avoids using “war”. Jihad, spiritual struggle, means war.
Where is collective voice against radical Islam in Muslim world? They have a responsibility as citizens of world to voice that.
Conflict between Islam and radicalism. Should hold nations responsible for costs.
What are rules of engagement for Taliban and AQ? Or for Palestinian mother to send son (Walid) off to (unsuccessful) suicide mission? Gen. met son once released, who then married a Catholic and became an apostate living undercover.
Iraq, down to 50,000 troops, mixed signs; PM has been unable to form a government effectively for 6-8 months.
Afghanistan. 3 years ago Gen. Petraeus was assailed by leading Democrats in Senate – seen as Gen. "Betray us" (MoveOn organization's slur) but now seen as Gen. “Save Us”. Shopkeepers unable to reopen because of threat of beheading. Change rules of engagement for US and ISAF troops; have lost troops owing to reduction of ammo expended from aerial missions – now only used in 10% of missions. Unlike VN when expended on 100% of missions. Target date needs to be pushed back. Do not tell enemy about a target date, fails to create resolve needed to win a war. President has made a drastic mistake.
Petraeus cannot win without Muslim nations – ISI created and sustained Taliban. So President using dramatic increase in drone attacks.
Iran will have nuclear capability within a year, and this administration will not attack. Solution is covert action. IDF did strike out but by cyber warfare, new version of Syrian attack when radar did not spot them. Israelis will have to go with all out war, Syria is back and Israelis will have to use armor. Syria is arming at such a rate, 40 Scuds went through Bekaa valley a month ago. Medvedev announced would not sell sophisticated S-300 SAMs, but F-22 needed for stealth attack has been cut back by US administration.
Threat is that Islamic terrorist group could deliver nuclear weapons to US cities – not seen in NY Times, but in Jihadis' words.
Does deterrence work with Iran?
Cannot deter that ideology. Head of state makes statements. Have already gone through Kabuki of their protocol and announced intentions to West.Given Obama's strong opposition to Bush's plan for preemptive strike, what will be done?
Encourages rogue nations to use nuclear weapons.Afghanistan, taken down easily in OEF, but now why tougher?
Afghans have never seen this much money but Taliban responding with death threats to locals. Will be collateral damage but the goal is victory. Building schools and hospitals will not defeat enemy.Solutions or alternatives, after decade of war?
Must understand ideology. Put responsibility on moderates such as Saudi and Turkey. They help covertly but not enough.Why not many suicide bombings already in US?
Have been some attempts, but did not want to get Americans riled up. Should have asked US army major (who shot colleagues at an army base) whether he believed in Sharia law, which is against our Constitution. 80% of mosques in US funded by Saudi Wahabis. Islam has responsibility to take care of this, needs dialogue.Radical Islam has misstated jihad.
Not sure West should reach out; Islam should reach out.Recommend to President covert operation on Iran (mostly Persian, ¼ Azaris, partly others, who do not all like mullahs).
Can use twin large bombs to penetrate structures.Impact of [opium] poppies on failed states?
May sink assets in them. Would take out poppy fields, even though hard on farmers.Fareed Zakaria's point that US exaggerated post 9/11 the Islamic threat?
Looking for an excuse to not hold Islamic states accountable. Zakaria did not say so then. Cannot live in rear view mirror. [Some mistakes made by US after invasion.] An army division commander thought we would only be there 6 months; then Bremer tried to create Jeffersonian democracy. Division that came in used different techniques, not combat trained.[Partly audible. Can Sharia law be recognized and blended in West?]
Sharia law has (quick) death penalty, not US constitution.[Inaudible question about strategy or tactics in Afghanistan]
What does NATO have to do to let you [citizens of Afghanistan] win? How do we help you?Officer ["Joe"] spoke: just returned from 19 months in Afghanistan where no truly central state. Taliban has sanctuary in Pakistan, and no way round without Pakistan ending that sanctuary; conducting operations against Pakistan Taliban. Will lose war to corruption in Afghanistan before we lose it in operations. 10-15 year enterprise.
How prepared are we in homeland for Iranian threat?
Ahmadinejad has threatened all out war if we stop Iranian nuclear program. Appeasement not effective need tit-for-tat on covert basis. They can and will unleash Hezbollah – [issue is whether] on Israeli terms or Iranian. Iranian people can take their country back but we gave no support when they had green revolution. President Carter should not have let Shah fall, great mistake, needed to keep CENTO active – Iran has been great instigator in region since then.
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26 October 26 2010: Amb. Ivan Barbalic, Ambassador of Bosnia and Herzegovina to the United NationsAmb. Barbalic, introduction
Ambassador representing Bosnia-Herzegovina to the United Nations One of youngest ambassadors to the U.N. Expert on European integration issues Worked for United Nations Development Program for several years BS from University of Bridgeport, Connecticut; MS from University of Sarajevo and University of Bologne Balkan mapsPrepared remarks: Theme will be that glass is half full. Youngest president of UN Security Council (UNSC) for 2 year term. Academic, entrepreneur, diplomatBosnia independent 1992, 4.5 million people: Muslims, Catholics and orthodox Christians.Early 1990s conflict in north Yugoslavia, moved to Bosnia 1992-95.Whole world was watching, cities surrounded, amid end of cold war. Time when UN was reconfiguring its own organization, so provided opportunity for UNSC to provide some answers.Lessons of Bosnia applied all over the world in the 15 years since.
UNSC could make policies for first time, bringing many countries on board with international intervention, protecting women and children in conflict (Resolution has lasted, changed perception of wars and conflicts).
Established principle of State building after conflict, that was not enough to send peace-keeping troops.
Dayton negotiation led to accords and Bosnian constitution. 60,000 troops and others entered Bosnia to secure police, soon training military & police. Non-Government Organizations (NGOs) entered, eventually a huge intervention.
Elections took place immediately after war.War crimes, and dealing with past in order to deal with future – has been repeated elsewhere since then.Common goal is for Balkans to become part of EU. If Bosnia joins NATO, will ensure security. UN needs to complete project of 15 years, ensuring Bosnia integrates into Western world.
Hague war crimes trials mandated by UN and persisting in the Hague, sent a message to potential perpetrators around the world.
Experience was difficult but has been shared with others since.
Biggest reconstruction effort since Marshall plan – but there is lesson of limited absorption capacity, because so much came so soon before institutions were developed, and when they were ready, funding had been spent. Project has to be completed to the end.
Infrastructure rebuilt, return of property to refugees, central government strengthening relations with different levels of government.
Wrong to believe Balkans always divided. Balkans victims of Nazism, but also contributed in united fashion against Nazism. 1984 reunited for Sarajevo Olympics – despite being a meeting place of borders of religions and cultures.UNSC dealing with peace-keeping in Somalia, Sudan, Haiti – we forget what kind of achievements have taken place.Question Time
Dayton left internal divisions, political parties representing one ethnic group only, delivering different messages to each and not building consensus.
In last few years, though, a consensus party has won a majority of votes. Will help with European integration, consensus party permitting constitutional arrangements.
Slovenia, to North?Conclusion
Most developed, first to have referendum on independence, did not suffer much in war, and became a member of EU some years ago. Much space is there for cooperation with EU.Economy and corruption?
While rest of Eastern Europe had to cross from socialist economy to free market, Bosnia had multiple transitions. From war to peace, socialist to free market, industry destroyed by war, brain drain, lack of newest Know-how. Difficult to reorganize economy postwar, amid other problems. Postwar parties winning were based on army – beginning of democracy, people trusted leaders who grabbed companies for themselves in first wave of [privatization. Now have more constructive system with European help, more focused on development (may privatize energy and communications). Croatian and Serbian economies are stronger.Bosnian government's position on Kosovo?
Still a burning issue in Bosnia, didn't deal with it on presidential agenda, did not vote on whether to recognize it.No port on Adriatic sea?
Used to use Croatian port of Plocha, but now only had 20 km of coast, not a good place for port. In discussions with Croatia over port.How much cooperative trade among the Balkans, and how much competition?
Competitive, but first wave of cooperation has emerged.What role do women play in society and economy?
Strong role; obvious cultural traditions and gaps, but participation of women is increasing. NGOs have helped.Reputation of Tito?
Still Sarajevo's main St is Tito St – people rejected attempt to rename it. Tito as leader against Fascism and in unity was good, but historical crimes may have to be considered.Does Serbia accept the peace accords, or have eyes on other parts of country?
Serbia has progressive, pro-Euro government at present, even though they have some conservative elements, which makes it difficult at election times for progressives.What kind of government?
Set up by Dayton accords. Nine ministries in central government, and two entities: Serbska Republic, and another entity with the two other groups in ten cantons, and own two governments. At least 13 governments. Sometimes difficult to make it function, but it does provide services to citizens.Entry into EU?
Turkey is a separate issue, long period of probation – but EU sent strong message that whole of SE Europe might be integrated, has not been questioned by any leaders since. Timing has not been set, though, so issue is when reforms can be established to aid entry.Experiences at UN and on Security Council?
Great honor but many unknowns, not having embassies in many countries. Had to create new staff and function 24/7, with assistance, but delegation does not have the same knowledge that permanent members have from 50 years compared to Bosnia's 2 years.What is attitude of citizens towards assistance in past and future?
Quite positive view of international community, helped economy and restructuring military. But some skepticism now, some wish international community would leave earlier than others, but important that international community stay and finish the job.US Sec of State has called for Bosnia-Herzegovina to grow stronger, build state institutions. Needs to create capacities so when EU comes knocking there is someone to answer. There needs to be space for constitutional reform.
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16 November 2010: Dennis Lockhart, "The Dollar, The Economy: Does the Fed Matter?" President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of AtlantaDennis Lockhart, introduction
CEO of Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta since 2007 Supervises banks in the Southeast, including Alabama Member of Federal Reserve Board's (Fed's) Open Market Committee (FOMC), overseeing America's monetary policy Served on faculty of Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service and Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies Has served as chairman of U.S. Export-Import Bank Lieutenant in U.S. Marine Corps Reserve, 1966-1974 NPR and Slate magazine reproduce the Federal Reserve's post-election notice, 3 November 2010, of a $600 Billion cash injection to the economy -- together with a layman's translation.First chair of new WAC of AtlantaPrepared remarks
Views expressed are his alone.3 Nov. FOMC announced purchase of $600 Bn of Treasury notes.Question time:
Normally purchasing and selling small quantities of Treasurydebt but now interest rates are low and expected to remain so for extended period. Small scale purchases cannot now affect money supply but need large scale.
I supported ‘QE2’ quantitative easing. Term best reserved for expansion of bank reserves – so really this is more like last year's asset purchasing program – so I will not use QE2 term.
Max employment and price stability – two goals of Fed.
Ultimate sellers of Treasury bills and notes will tend to push up prices of assets they then buy, hence lower yields, hence lower cost of borrowing for businesses.
Decision to buy was made amid considerable uncertainty, risks & rewards and cost & benefits. Every policy option available has risks, there are no riskless options. Controversial decision both here and abroad.
Varying characterizations of motivations and even of terms used.
4 views of critics, each one answered.
1. Fed. is monetizing federal debt – historically has led to higher inflation and harmed holders of Treasury bonds. Not our objective to inflate away government debt – but to maintain objective of low target inflation, and will adjust as goals are met. Purchase program is conditional and will be reevaluated when conditions cease. Independent of fiscal considerations.
2. Fed. is devaluing dollar – normally I defer to US Treasury on matters related to $ – but no intent to prompt dollar appreciation. Prices of many assets are affected by this – but price of $ in foreign exchange markets not a goal. Best for $ is long term stability of strong economy.
3. Maybe inflation down road – that this is unconventional and unfamiliar. True that we are not targeting Fed. funds rate (short term rate for banks). Uncertainty true – revolves around scale and lags. Perceived risks of overshooting inflation must be weighed against risks of inactions, chiefly inflationary relapse tipping into spell of deflation. Signs in summer of disinflation that could lead to inflationary expectations. Our experience of dealing with inflation and deflation is not symmetrical. Deflationary spiral far less familiar for policymakers.
4. This easing won't work. Will fail to foster growth and price stability. I don’t have outsize expectations, see it as precautionary measure. Some incremental positive effect on overall demand. Should counter to some extent the econ headwinds. TIPS spreads over similar Treasuries without inflation protection were declining over the summer, and now have recovered to previous levels. Deflation probabilities have fallen to prior level. Will ensure inflation expectations remain in desired zone. Summer, first considered, economy was not in such good shape to avoid the danger zone as now. Outlook is of deliberate pace of improvement. I expect recovery to strengthen for coming year. Recovery is still constrained by cautious credit, ongoing deleveraging by businesses and households, restructuring of commercial real estate, uncertainly of government policy. Now households and businesses have improved their balance sheets. Businesses cash holdings have improved. Modest, measured and well calibrated action program can be calibrated as circumstances evolve. Asset purchase program will need to be reversed eventually and Fed. has tools to do this.1. speech posted on Atlanta Federal Reserve web site “Toward a Faster Recovery and Reduced Risk ...”
2. Where did Fed. get its money to buy the assets? Central bank has rare powers, can draw check on itself and check will clear. We can create the money – and when we sell the assets back we destroy money.
3. Removing half of mandate to ensure full employment? Recent proposal from Senator – so political issue, unable to comment, will continue to work with the two existing mandates.
4. Prior QE1 money still sitting in banks' balance sheets, so why new one? We refer to it as $1.7 Trillion in balance sheets of banks with Fed Res, level has remained unprecedentedly high at about $800 Billion, latent resources. Two economists at Jackson Hole [conference] argued let existing reserves flow instead of new QE2 (or Large assets program). We interact with banks on their lending standards, and they are more cautious than before, but we reinforce that. Banking system is healing but consequence of cautious posture is high level of reserves that have not yet turned into loans. Much credit is done through shadow banking system of mortgages and care loans, not as regulated. Additional liquidity should bring that system back to its full potential.
5. How will banks survive massive number of foreclosures that now we understand were truncated by ‘robosigning’ problem and AG lawsuit? Only affects some banks, so too early to draw conclusions, will eventually allow some banks to resume, but we have not yet seen enough to predict.
6. Why is price of gold going up? Because not going down! No expert on gold, but is seen as both a monetary asset and a real use asset, commodity of mixed roles. More equivalent investment decision than during high interest rate period. Indian Delali holiday requires giving gold as gift currently.
7. Are we headed for liquidity trap? Would mean lots of money but no one using it. No, but we are certainly having to make adjustment and it’s taking some time to soak up liquidity. Currently banks aggressively seeking to loan, and other signs of recovery.
8. Argument made abroad that US is competitively devaluing, stoking it’s exports. US is 25% of global GDP, so all interested in its recovery – but not the intent to affect exchange rate.
9. Atlanta international city – do you deal with other central banks directly, or defer to Bernanke? Substantially Board of Directors of Governors of Fed. plus special role of NY Federal Reserve. Atlanta does have some interactions over payment systems connected via central banks to other countries, first of which was Mexico, needed payment system to Mexican people.
10. David Brooks in this morning's New York Times column, writes US economic model more appropriate to developing countries than developed. Who keeps this economic model? Frustrated with use of “model”, not an economist, they talk about conceptual models, likely what this means, rather than econometric model. We ran 7 or 8 different models to see how they work. Brooks is probably talking about structural model of [high] consumption % versus [low] investment % of economy.
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1 February 2011, "The Future of Korea," with a panel of speakers [see Biographies]:
Ambassador Charles (Jack) Pritchard, President, Korea Economic Institute;
Mr. Greg Scarlatoiu, Director of Business Issues and Public Affairs, Korea Economic Institute; and
Aloysius O'Neill, consultant, Office of Korean Affairs, U.S. Department of State.
MapsMaps of Korean peninsula | HiRes | LKL's Korean war mapCountry briefing, atlas and encyclopedia dataThe Economist, "The World In Figures: South Korea," Nov. 2010Trade issues
The Economist, leaders and articles on North Korea, 2010-11
CIA World Factbook: Korea, South (Atlas-type database)
CIA World Factbook: Korea, North (Atlas-type database)
Wikipedia entry on South Korea (true to form, this is one of the more carefully researched and written entries)Economics Analysis of US-South Korean relations from Dr. Cinzia Balit-Moussalli, Huntingdon College, 31 Jan 2011Recent news"Sailors free after SKorea launches ‘high-tech’ raid," Myanmar Times, Jan.31-Feb.6, 2011 [Counter-piracy assault succeeds off Somalia]Korean conflict, 50th anniversary
Reuters, "Satellite images support North Korea reactor claim," 19 Nov. 2010
J.J. Sutherland, "Images Show North Korea Building New Nuclear Reactor," NPR, 19 Nov. 2010 | Satellite image, annotated
"North Korea-- 2010 Overseas Diplomatic Directory for Europe and Central Asia," US Open Source Center, December 29, 2010 (at FAS).
CNN, Teaser video (18 Feb. 2011) for Wolf Blitzer, "Six Days in North Korea" documentary video of trip with Gov. Richardson, first shown Sat. 19 Feb. 2011US DOD, 50th Anniversary of Korean War, site | Global Security: Summary of the Korean War, 1950-53 |Images of Korea
Learn Korean Language site, Korean war timeline & mapGlobalSecurity.org: Night images contrasting lit up South with dark North
Travel-images: South Korea | North Korea | FotoSearch | Life in Korea | Flickr | Cheju Island resort (spectacular)
Greg Scarlatoiu: Korea’s spectacular economic development and US-SK relations.Per capita income only $67 postwar, but now Hyundai employs 2500 in Mgmy alone. 15th economy in world. Rags to riches in 20 years that took others 200 years.Al O’Neill, Cooperation SK-US abroad:
US provided security that allowed Han river miracle. 35K US and $40 Bn lost in war, then $24 Bn aid postwar.
Now SK is a provider of aid to to others. Peace Corp volunteers in 1960s, but now provides own peace corps to others.
SK now engages in FDI abroad. 1975 32% of exports 25% of imports from US.
Work, innovation, entrepreneurship, economic miracle a source of great pride.
Trouble on peninsula though would affect world economy, though in response to NK provocations, SK is responsible and restrained.
Now pc income $17,175 by World Bank.
Shipbuilding 2d to China. Banker for LDCs #1. #5 in automobiles. 12th largest importing and same for exporting. $321 Bn imports, 2009.
1960s-70s government led switch from import substitute industries to export industries. Light, then a decade later, heavy industries developed. From textiles and shoes … to steel, ships and high tech products.
Most wired country in world, 2d in broadband users.
Joined OECD 1996. Overcame Asian financial crisis in 1997. FIFA 2002, 2010 G20 in Seoul.
One of E.Asia’s largest liberal democracies.
Park Chung Hee and other leaders did make financing available for entrepreneurs. Some collusion between bureaucrats and business, but bureaucrats untainted by Asian standards.
1960s-70s set export targets as performance measures. Economic ties with US have always been strong.
US now seeking bilateral free Trade Agreement (FTA) and will build momentum for both. Important US interests involved in regaining market share (ex. Agriculture, wine – to recover from Chile’s taking over wine supply when signed FTA w/ SK)
AL will benefit from FTA exports have increased greatly to SK in the past decade (examples); and tariffs will be phased out over a decade, following some immediate benefits.
Shared values among US, AL and SK.anti-piracy; Afghan; reconstruction; economic cooperation in APEC & G20; nuclear security; pandemic disease prevention.Amb. Pritchard, President of KEI. (Served under Clinton and Bush, and served in Asian affairs in NSC. Negotiator with NK.)
100K students in US at all levels. Comparable to Chinese and Indian student numbers.
2m Korean US residents (though hard to pin down). More Koreans here than in other Asian countries.
Rep. Giffords (recently shot) was treated by K-Am surgeons at both hospital trauma centers.
US security on K peninsula. Defense Treaty is cornerstone of relationship since postwar period.
NK has often expressed desire to engage with US but has not always lived up to agreements. Has tested 2 nuclear devices and developed technologies since signing nuclear agreement.
Naval corvette sunk last year with sailors lost. Objective scientific, international investigation showed only convincing possibility is that she was sunk by torpedo from NK sub.
Nov 2010 NK revealed Uranium enrichment at nuclear facility. Dr. Hecker of Los Alamos was shown centrifuges for enrichment for fuel for LWR. Some reconfiguration could permit highly enriched uranium (from 3% fuel to 90% weapons grade.) Existence of facility puts them in violation of UN Resolution 1718 and 1784 post their tests 2007 and 2009. Also violates agreements 2005.
Chinese have given signals recently of concern over DPRK enrichment – called for resumption of 6 party talks, via Hu Jintao statement.
Shelling incident on island near NK coast, first time NK attacks have killed SK civilians (2) since airliner was shot down. Hardened SK public opinion.What can you expect this coming year from NK? Have been there 11 times.Question time
Kim Il Sung died 1994 and about to turn 100.Seen as demagogue, not a deity, though his presence lingers on in statuary.NK leadership is there to perpetuate leadership, not welfare of people. Kim Il Sung groomed own son to take over – but was not deity so would need years to build power through promoting generals.
Masons are now exporting talents to LDCs.
Still president of the country, despite being dead.
Anecdote about Madeleine Albright's visit to his body.
He did not prepare for succession, but now 69 and stroke hit a few years ago. Survival plan was 3rd son to be heir apparent, unusual in Asia. Oldest fell out of favor about 2002, when wanted to go to Tokyo Disneyland, with fake passport, then banished to Macao to gamble away his time. Middle son seen as effeminate. Younger son is 26 and NK fixing his birth certificate to make him 30. Looks like grandfather.
Changed constitution (National Defense Commission, rather than workers party, more or less runs country), expanded NDC led by brother in law.
Kim Jung Il made a general and made sister a 4 star general.
Devaluation by 100 factor, banned foreign currency – caused backlash, discontent, forced government to backtrack on devaluation.
No agreement on maritime boundary , five islands close to NK above the natural line extension, but US unilaterally declared them to SK. 1999 & 2002 incidents. One NK patrol boat strayed south and was shot up.
Rock bottom relations. For 10 years SK sunshine policy under 2 administrations, criticized for getting nothing in return.
New conservative administration with poorer relations, 2010.
NK trying to rally own people at cost of external relations, 26 March attacks and November. Ship and Island attacks are being falsely credited to heir apparent.
US is rebuffing NK, telling them to talk with SK first.
Why attack and then offer talks? NK has pushed envelope with PRC, and PRC not thrilled – they do not want collapse but they want to restrain.
NK wants to be a prosperous nation by 2012 100th anniversary. But noone will invest with behavior like last year.
SK has already changed rules of engagement and will react far more muscularly – NK has to change behavior.
Next week, there will be a meeting of military N&S at Colonel level to prepare for Generals.
Nothing successful will come out of 6 party talks – NK will not give up on nuclear weapons during a succession period – need expanded agenda. If father dies within 2 years, I do not believe son will have built power base and uncle may take power away from him.Greg: in times of crisis in world markets, Korean exports suffer, but SK also exports tools and capital to China so takes a second hit. Korea is always squeezed between low Chinese prices and high Japanese quality. SK manufacturers have made spectacular progress on quality (e.g. Hyundai motors).
Korean restructuring post 1997 Asian financial crisis? Banks in Hong Kong kept lending on short term while SK investing in longterm. The bubble burst. Chaebols an issue, eg Daewoo had tried to grow in E. Europe but this was not sustainable – power of chaebols was curbed. Cross-ownership was disallowed, allowing more balanced development with smaller and medium enterprises.
NK charm offensive? NK has given SK a policy shift. It is in SK hands to determine whether NK is sincere, then SK can signal to US whether to rejoin talks. Pritchard – fear they are changing goalposts, SK are sensing upper hand, making it more difficult for NK to move the talks forward. But if we do not take advantage of charm offensive, [leadership transition window may close]
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8 March 2011: Dr. Charles Kupchan, "Enemies into Friends: How Peace Breaks Out"Professor of International Affairs at Georgetown UniversityLinks
Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations
Served on the Planning Staff at US State Dept and on National Security Council staff
Taught politics at Princeton, educated at Harvard and Oxford universities
Authored numerous books and articles on national security and geopolitics"How Enemies Become Friends With Charles Kupchan", Mortara Center, Georgetown University, PodcastPrepared remarks
Kupchan's biographical page at the Council on Foreign Relations
Kupchan's biographical page at Foreign Affairs
Kupchan, Charles A.. 2010. "Palestinians Should Just Say Yes", New York Times, 15 Sep. 2010
Book event for Charles Kupchan at New America Foundation, with video of presentation, 26 May 2010
"Andrew Moravcsik: A Reply to Charlie Kupchan" The Washington Note, Blog, 10 June 2006.
Clemons, Steve. "Charles Kupchan on How Nations Make Peace". [Video of conversation]
Canadians relaxed about their long border, completely undefended since 1906 when British regulars withdrew.Searched historical cases where peace broke out among longstanding rivals. Not merely ‘not war’ (like cold war).
Magical moments when peace breaks out, demilitarized relationships also found on French-German border, geopolitically inconsequential border, only 50 years after conflict.
How I investigated, what I found, and a few kernels of truth.
Brazil and Argentina not at war, but were rivals in C18th. Looking for peace breaking out.What starts process, makes it develop and forms conclusion?
Earliest 1291 AD pact in Switz when 3 cantons formed confederation.
Iroquois confederation: 5 tribes 1450 AD gathered around camp fire, and drafted orally the great binding law. Not one died in battle thereafter. Previously captives were shown to women, to either be joined to tribe or cooked for dinner. Confederation split over US revolutionary war between Americans and British.
1895 & 1906 Rapprochement between US & UK. Previously main enemies till 1815.
Strategic necessity, not altruism, among 20 selected cases. Generally, one country finds itself with too many enemies, and needs diplomacy to move an enemy into the friend column.“Take aways:”
1895 dispute between British Guiana colony & Venezuela – US sent Monroe doctrine note, asked for neutral court to arbitrate. UK rejected the note, there was talk of war in Congress, and war fever was reported by the British ambassador. British cabinet called in the war office and the admirals, and learned they did not have enough resources in face of rivalry from the US, Germany, Japan and Boers – leaving not only colonies but also the home isles exposed. Lord Salisbury wrote to accept US note; and Arthur Balfour recognized Monroe doctrine in Parliament. The US recognized this as a peace offering. The UK backed down, then the US backed down on sealing in the Bering straits. This marked the beginning of a relationship.2nd stage allows 2-3 yrs. The US & UK agreed on the Canadian border, then made a pact for the Panama canal. The UK then supported the US alone on disputes. This showed their mutual desire to step away from rivalry.
Fictional illustration of sending peaceful signals: in the film The Hunt for Red October, the US attack submarine boat signals the USSR’s defecting submarine boat by reversing her propeller, causing cavitation noise, thereby giving away her position and showing benign intent.
Other signals: Brazil allowed Argentina to build HE dam. Norway & Sweden allowed forts built on mutual border.
In first few stages diplomatic & leaders hide moves from public. Lord Salisbury didn’t tell Parliament or the public, when removing the US from the ‘2 power standard’ for the size of the Royal Navy.The final stage narrative is about each other: Teddy Roosevelt says war between US and UK would be a civil war, and begins talk of kinship on both sides. War plans on both sides were torn up.
Then leaders take issue to society: an Anglo-American business society met for dinners, with reverence for both anthems and both flags. Tourism then picks up; finance, trading & the publication of novels pick up, then deeper societal roots develop.
The special relationship began in the Halifax meeting of Churchill & Franklin Delano Roosevelt – but its roots were in 1895.
1. Whether engagement is appeasement or good diplomacy – usually is good. Most conflicts come to an end not when one forces the other into -- submission but when they seek change. Exceptions do occur where one, like Al Qaeda or Nazis, is dedicated to destruction of the other.
2. The elixir is the practice of strategic restraint. This may include dismantling border installations or settling the Panama canal issue; in general, finding ways to step back from mutual competition.
Efforts to deconcentrate power:3. regime type doesn’t matter. We see democracies as good, autocracies as bad – but the research found autocracies were reliable in peace.
(eg concert of Europe 1815 was dominated by Britain and Russia, but empowered the Austrians and others.)
Washington DC was placed in a swamp to locate it between Northern & Southern states.
European politicians likewise put the EEC’s capital in a safe location.
The Swiss were badly divided among protestants and catholics, so they made one capital rotate among their cantons.
Suharto, despite being one of the great thugs – was a peacemaker in Asia.4. economic interdependence doesn’t really matter in these cases – a surprise.
Brazil and Argentina when they made peace in 1979, were both ruled by military juntas.
The Concert of Europe managed to bridge the gap between constitutional monarchy and autocracies.
The was only 1 case, that of German states during the 1815-1871 unification. Otherwise it was important only after political issues were settled by diplomats. The research shows core political issues must be solved first.5. Culture matters.
British made peace with China in 1902, in order to bring battle ships back to UK water, because of the threat posed by the new German battleship Tirpitz. Did not work as well with the Japanese as with the US. Australia & New Zealand were not in ASEAN, because of cultural differences. It is easier to ally within a culture, than across cultures.6. Domestic politics blocked some on path of peace, and stopped some efforts at rapprochement.
Syrian rapprochement in 1958-61 with Egypt, was blocked by merchants’ resistance to Egypt’s pan-Arabist leader Nasser. Nationalists at other times stop the move towards peace.The US today: the signature policy of President Obama is to engage and talk with the enemy. The only success so far is with the Russia ‘reset button.’ Cooperation has occurred on nuclear arms controls and reduction. The US Senate, though, was close to rejecting the START Treaty, and that would have scuttled relations. Change in relations with Havana faces domestic resistance, and the country is polarized now, the most since 1910.
This supposes competent governments, what about weak states?
The analysis above is relevant to tribes making concessions within countries – like Afghanistan. The US should be careful about getting involved militarily in these tribal situations. The US overinvested troops and treasure over 150 members of Al Qaeda in Afghanistan. The lesson from Iraq is to be careful about expecting the locals to greet us – avoid intervention in Libya to arbitrate among factions in a civil war.China since Nixon’s rapprochement is prospering, now developing navy, will there be a war with China or development of a business partnership?
Probably a decade to develop relations, China has generally developed sense of serving its people, if not a free country (or even likely to become free in 30 yrs) and his coopted its middle class. The US should fashion mutual accommodation now – later it will get ‘dicier’ in the South China sea, when China develops its own Monroe doctrine. By 2020 they will have naval platforms and a tussle for naval supremacy would be tougher.How should the US deal with Iran?
The Obama administration has generally handled Iran well, made its initial peace offering, is willing to talk about a nuclear enrichment program, to enrich uranium abroad and return it to Iran. The Stuxnet virus set back Iran’s nuclear program, messed up the centrifuges, and the completion date was pushed back from about 2011 to about 2013. Either bombing or living with Iranian nukes is unattractive.Are there parallels with India & the US?
Relations are burgeoning, especially under the W Bush administration’s deal with the civilian nuclear program, which turned around the relationship, and made Bush a ‘rock star’ in India. President Obama was treated with skepticism until his trip there, in Nov 2010. India shares our democratic values, and our concern over the rise of China. But a deep relationship is not there, since they disagree with us on various issues – and agree on only 20% of votes in UN Security Council.Did you include Ireland and N. Ireland in 20 case studies? No. Why did they cease hostilities? Not an expert.
Have you considered as causal factors, race, ethnicity & religion?
When shared, they are helpful to peacemaking, but a language barrier is not a strong factor. The bar is higher to making peace across a cultural divide. Europe today, unlike N Ireland, has no longer an ethnic conflict, and culture is no longer a barrier to peace.Is technology of communication a factor?
Yes, President Obama is quickly heard around the world, but no longer has the ability to address a single audience. Wikileaks is a perfect example of the way in which if you say something, you must assume it will become public in weeks, if not months. A backdoor channel might be able to find an opening -- but it is extremely difficult to conduct it with an enemy, and runs the risk of exposure.Will there be peace & stability in the Balkans?
Yes, have probably seen their last serious war. Bosnia is still divided along ethnic lines, had internal incentives, but did not deal with deep political issues. Needs a constitution, for example. Macedonia still sees itself as a Slavic nation but will soon have a majority of ethnic Albanians. Serbia is quietly backing down in relations with Kosovo, though still needs several more years. Will accept that Kosovo is no longer a province of Serbia.Will peace break out on the Korean peninsula?
North Korea not likely to last a long time, because of neighborhood. Likewise Balkans live in good neighborhood, and countries are integrating into EU. North Korea is an island of idiocy, in a part of world that is doing quite well. The Middle East is less safe, because current uprisings and the Shia/Sunni split remain troublesome. We should wait out North Korea, they will tank and there will be reunification.
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15 March 2011: Col. Andrew Bacevich, PhD, Stallworth Lecture at Huntingdon College, 7 pm in Ligon Chapel, to which AWAC members are warmly invited. Links on Dr. Bacevich.
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10 May 2011: Senior Air War College Instructors report on their regional tours as part of the AWC Regional and Cultural Studies ProgramPresenters:13 different courses followed by two weeks of field study.
Dr. Stephen Burgess: Southern Africa (also South Asia)
Dr. Mark Conversino: Russia
Dr. Burgess: we emphasize culture of Africa, so different from students’ experiences.South Africa, Zambia at peace, DR Congo a failed state, and all have strategic minerals.Dr. Conversino on Russia at a Crossroads.
Cobalt, manganese and rare earth (cut off recently by China, hence may become a weapon in future), platinum mine in South Africa, cobalt mine in Zambia.
HIV AIDS has killed 5M South Africans. Thabo Mbeki denied the existence of AIDS and South Africa did nothing for human security for ten years.
Mugabe has run Zimbabwe into the ground over ten years, in dispute with white farmers.
A number of countries intervened in DRC and benefitted from the minerals. Rail map shows a hundred years of development based on routes to minerals deposits. 75% of world platinum is based in South Africa in very specific locations. China heavily involved in strategic investments for ore. US concerned about manganese.
Although free markets work in South Africa, issues of control of resources and of nationalization. Issue of black economic empowerment, developing black entrepreneurs – but process is being abused and Chinese are supplying funding.
Infrastructure: electricity shortages, did not plan enough for expansion of industry; need more rail lines to export minerals.
Cobalt is located in Congo Katanga province, bordering on Zambia – so Chinese investment may deprive US of ore in future. DRC agreed to export millions of tons of copper and cobalt to China.Foreign officers tour the US while US officers are abroad -- this time they included Hawaii.Question Time:
Medvedev may run for second term instead of Putin returning to Presidency – Duma has now extended Presidential term.
Russians realize they are a resource dependent economy, lost 12% of GDP in crisis compared to US 3%. Hostage to commodity prices.
Very corrupt, at all levels from getting a driving license to top levels of government.
Nationalism under Putin and modernization under Med; United party has 2/3 of Duma.
Russians amused at handwringing over death of OBL, because Putin has built career of brutal nationalism.
Chechnya is now relatively stable, though ironically some violence in neighboring republics. “Russia does not negotiate with terrorists. It annihilates them.” Rebel leaders have been killed, backed by new law. 3 assassins were returned from Qatar. Black widows in gassed cinema were shot. Some blowback attacks from Islamic insurgency. Russians say internal issue, and until you in US have had suicide bombers in your rock concerts and planes, don’t judge our violations of human rights.
Role of Pakistan in harboring Bin Laden.Strategy for 30 years has used jihad as weapon against Soviets, India and even US. Bush policy was for or against us, Pakistan for -- but played a double game and sponsored jihadis who attacked Mumbai. Growing nuclear weapons program, over 100 weapons with threat to use them in event of Indian invasion or blockade. US mostly supplies 100,000 in Afghan via Pakistan. US has to remain engaged with Pakistan over Waziristan also. Powerful ISI (running jihadis) separate from army, and President Zidari’s elected government has limited power vis-a-vis powerful military. US & Pakistan are “frenemies”.Development of China.China needs to be at $15,000 per cap income to reach full industrial state, still a long way to go. US needs to modify Chinese behavior via WTO and other organizations to ensure access to minerals. Struggle for resources was part of cause of WWI and cold war.Russia: demographics and economy?Single most important issue they face: CIA says Russian population dropping half percent per year, life expectancy of men is 59 from drink and heavy smoking, and AIDS now spreading, rampant, and strokes, diet and violent culture. Pop now is 139M, but 3x as many Chinese living in each border province compared to Russians east of Urals. Offering bonuses to women, conception day, and cash prizes 9 months later. But too few housing units.What is in US interests, aggressive nationalist Russia -- or failed state which is oil rich?
Xenophobia against dark skinned foreigners on streets, skinhead neo-Nazi gangs. Labor shortage cannot be filled easily by immigrants for this reason. Next year will not have enough males to maintain force structure, let alone healthy males. Other Slavic republics likewise facing low birth rate and high death rate. We were relieved when USSR expired quietly, but by mid century they may be down to 120M pop .In short term we must deal with Russia – they want respect and do not feel they lost cold war, just removed from USSR as Russia – and they still have largest stock of nuclear weapons and ruthless security services. Using oil to drive a wedge between US and allies. Cash registers are ticking in Moscow from oil.Arab spring.Dr. Sorenson took a group to Tunisia, Egypt and Yemen; and Dr. Hemmer to Syria just before the crackdown, and to Turkey (a model for Arab spring) and Israel. Tunisia has a modern economy and civilian government with military remaining in barracks. Still uncertain where Tunisia will end up; totally new experience. Egypt similar but has strong military role; Libya now in second month of war with rebels now approaching Tripoli. Now US dealing with fluid situation, and Israel (our major ally in middle East) is concerned. Iran has nuclear program.Russian officers at AWAC.Russian officers used to come to AWC, but one woman wanted to stay; others who studied in west had careers ended, because of suspicion. History of Russian officers who chased Napoleon back to France, then led Decembrist revolution – and governments have been suspicious of foreign travel ever since among military. Still much resentment of US in cold war, and do not anticipate Russians being sent to AWC in future.China:uprisings of Uighurs in NW both in demonstration and with violence, suppressed by Chinese government. They also face jihadi movements in NW.Arab spring?Bush strategy was democratization in middle East, developing outlets for expression that reduces opportunity for extremist movements. Bubbling up from below, using social media and high tech. Positive development, but what can US and others do to encourage this democracy, and prevent these new regimes falling under influence of jhadis? More difficult for Israel than when dictatorships ruled.Ukraine:top generals and former minister of defense educated at AWC – Ukrainian military did not behave as Libyan military did in upheavals.[Statement from member on floor about having hosted Russian officers and supplied a used car for one who later defected.]Putin was exactly what Russia needed when Russian ex-apparatchiki were looting, breakdown of law and order, withdrew from Chechnya. Russian people demonstrated in support of their government, and they could not understand hesitation to attack Bin Laden. The men who run Russia also own Russia. Unlike other foreign students at AWC, they have not gone to high positions.Korea?Tour did go to Korea, but had to divert from Japan to Taiwan. North Korea has been playing this game of an extortion racket, using threat of nuclear weapons to obtain aid. Talks ultimately failed and policy of US and South Korea is no longer to engage with NK until nuclear weapons program is terminated. NK now using highly enriched uranium instead of plutonium. NK has undertaken provocative actions of sinking ship and shelling island. Succession crisis of Kim Jong Il to third son.AFRICOMcreated 2 years ago, engaging military to military, partnerships, helping Africans create regional peacekeeping forces, but Chinese well ahead and very aggressive, have turned some local regimes from pro-west to pro-Chinese.
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