President Bush, above right, spoke
to the 2002 WACA national conference; image courtesy of Terry Wofford.
The other images are by Jeremy Lewis, from AWAC meetings.
28 September 2010: Gen. Tom
McInerney, conservative commentator on Military affairs
26 October 26 2010: Amb.
Ivan Barbalic, Ambassador of Bosnia and Herzegovina to the United Nations
16 November 2010: Dennis
Lockhart, "The Dollar, The Economy: Does the Fed Matter?" President
and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
1 February 2011: Future
of Korea, panel
of speakers [Biographies]:
Charles (Jack) Pritchard, President, Korea Economic Institute;
Greg Scarlatoiu, Director of Business Issues and Public Affairs, Korea
Economic Institute; and Aloysius O'Neill, consultant, Office of
Korean Affairs, U.S. Department of State. Play Voice
8 March 2011: Charlie
Kupchan, "Enemies Into Friends: How Peace Breaks Out," Professor of
International Affairs at Georgetown University
March 2011: Col. Andrew Bacevich, PhD, will give the annual Stallworth
lecture at Huntingdon College. President West warmly invites
AWAC members to this free event, 7pm in Ligon Chapel.
10 May 2011: Senior
Air War College Instructors report on their regional tours
NOTES ON SPEAKERS
28 September 2010: Tom McInerney, conservative
commentator on Military affairs
Fox News military analyst
President, consulting firm, Government Reform
through Technology (GRTT)
1996-1999, President, Business Executives for
National Security (BENS)
1994-1996, Vice Pres, Command and Control, Loral
35 years as combat pilot, commander, and strategic
planner in USAF
BS, United States Military Academy, 1959; MS,
GeorgeWashington University, 1972
notably, was involved in the 'reinventing government' reforms under which
technology was applied to the military in quest of administrative efficiency.
When in USAF involved in many parts of world
other than Middle East.
Wrote article in 1998 about the need to eliminate
Osama Bin Laden (OBL).
1986 involved in Counter Terrorism (CT) to prevent
a major terrorist event.
Jwari, global war against radical Islam,
ideology as evil as Nazism, fascism and communism.
Islam as ideology rather than religion. The Hajj,
the words of the prophet, and Sharia law which violates US constitution:
honor killings, etc.
War is not merely “overseas contingency”. 15,000
attacks – but US national security (NS) adviser avoids using “war”. Jihad,
spiritual struggle, means war.
Where is collective voice against radical Islam
in Muslim world? They have a responsibility as citizens of world to voice
Conflict between Islam and radicalism. Should
hold nations responsible for costs.
What are rules of engagement for Taliban and
AQ? Or for Palestinian mother to send son (Walid) off to (unsuccessful)
suicide mission? Gen. met son once released, who then married a Catholic
and became an apostate living undercover.
Iraq, down to 50,000 troops, mixed signs; PM
has been unable to form a government effectively for 6-8 months.
Afghanistan. 3 years ago Gen. Petraeus was assailed
by leading Democrats in Senate – seen as Gen. "Betray us" (MoveOn organization's
slur) but now seen as Gen. “Save Us”. Shopkeepers unable to reopen because
of threat of beheading. Change rules of engagement for US and ISAF troops;
have lost troops owing to reduction of ammo expended from aerial missions
– now only used in 10% of missions. Unlike VN when expended on 100% of
missions. Target date needs to be pushed back. Do not tell enemy about
a target date, fails to create resolve needed to win a war. President has
made a drastic mistake.
Petraeus cannot win without Muslim nations –
ISI created and sustained Taliban. So President using dramatic increase
in drone attacks.
Iran will have nuclear capability within a year,
and this administration will not attack. Solution is covert action. IDF
did strike out but by cyber warfare, new version of Syrian attack when
radar did not spot them. Israelis will have to go with all out war, Syria
is back and Israelis will have to use armor. Syria is arming at such a
rate, 40 Scuds went through Bekaa valley a month ago. Medvedev announced
would not sell sophisticated S-300 SAMs, but F-22 needed for stealth attack
has been cut back by US administration.
Threat is that Islamic terrorist group could
deliver nuclear weapons to US cities – not seen in NY Times, but
in Jihadis' words.
Top of Page
Does deterrence work with Iran?
Cannot deter that ideology. Head of state makes
statements. Have already gone through Kabuki of their protocol and
announced intentions to West.
Given Obama's strong opposition to Bush's plan
for preemptive strike, what will be done?
Encourages rogue nations to use nuclear weapons.
Afghanistan, taken down easily in OEF, but now
Afghans have never seen this much money but Taliban
responding with death threats to locals. Will be collateral damage but
the goal is victory. Building schools and hospitals will not defeat enemy.
Solutions or alternatives, after decade of war?
Must understand ideology. Put responsibility
on moderates such as Saudi and Turkey. They help covertly but not enough.
Why not many suicide bombings already in US?
Have been some attempts, but did not want to
get Americans riled up. Should have asked US army major (who shot colleagues
at an army base) whether he believed in Sharia
law, which is against
our Constitution. 80% of mosques in US funded by Saudi
Islam has responsibility to take care of this, needs dialogue.
Radical Islam has misstated
Not sure West should reach out; Islam should
Recommend to President covert operation on Iran
(mostly Persian, ¼ Azaris, partly others, who do not all like mullahs).
Can use twin large bombs to penetrate structures.
Impact of [opium] poppies on failed states?
May sink assets in them. Would take out poppy
fields, even though hard on farmers.
Fareed Zakaria's point that US exaggerated post
9/11 the Islamic threat?
Looking for an excuse to not hold Islamic states
accountable. Zakaria did not say so then. Cannot live in rear view mirror.
[Some mistakes made by US after invasion.] An army division commander
thought we would only be there 6 months; then Bremer tried to create Jeffersonian
democracy. Division that came in used different techniques, not combat
[Partly audible. Can Sharia
law be recognized
and blended in West?]
Sharia law has (quick) death penalty,
not US constitution.
[Inaudible question about strategy or tactics
What does NATO have to do to let you [citizens
of Afghanistan] win? How do we help you?
Officer ["Joe"] spoke: just returned from 19
months in Afghanistan where no truly central state. Taliban has sanctuary
in Pakistan, and no way round without Pakistan ending that sanctuary; conducting
operations against Pakistan Taliban. Will lose war to corruption in Afghanistan
before we lose it in operations. 10-15 year enterprise.
How prepared are we in homeland for Iranian threat?
Ahmadinejad has threatened all out war if we
stop Iranian nuclear program. Appeasement not effective need tit-for-tat
on covert basis. They can and will unleash Hezbollah – [issue is whether]
on Israeli terms or Iranian. Iranian people can take their country back
but we gave no support when they had green revolution. President Carter
should not have let Shah fall, great mistake, needed to keep CENTO active
– Iran has been great instigator in region since then.
26 October 26 2010: Amb. Ivan Barbalic,
Ambassador of Bosnia and Herzegovina to the United Nations
Amb. Barbalic, introduction
Ambassador representing Bosnia-Herzegovina
to the United Nations
One of youngest ambassadors
to the U.N.
Expert on European integration
Worked for United Nations Development
Program for several years
BS from University of Bridgeport,
Connecticut; MS from University of Sarajevo and University of Bologne
Prepared remarks: Theme
will be that glass is half full.
Youngest president of UN Security
Council (UNSC) for 2 year term.
Academic, entrepreneur, diplomat
Early 1990s conflict in north
Yugoslavia, moved to Bosnia 1992-95.
Bosnia independent 1992, 4.5
million people: Muslims, Catholics and orthodox Christians.
Lessons of Bosnia applied all
over the world in the 15 years since.
Whole world was watching, cities
surrounded, amid end of cold war. Time when UN was reconfiguring
its own organization, so provided opportunity for UNSC to provide some
UNSC could make policies for
first time, bringing many countries on board with international intervention,
protecting women and children in conflict (Resolution has lasted, changed
perception of wars and conflicts).
Established principle of State
building after conflict, that was not enough to send peace-keeping troops.
Dayton negotiation led to accords
and Bosnian constitution. 60,000 troops and others entered Bosnia
to secure police, soon training military & police. Non-Government
Organizations (NGOs) entered, eventually a huge intervention.
Elections took place immediately
Common goal is for Balkans to
become part of EU. If Bosnia joins NATO, will ensure security.
UN needs to complete project of 15 years, ensuring Bosnia integrates into
War crimes, and dealing with
past in order to deal with future – has been repeated elsewhere since then.
Hague war crimes trials mandated
by UN and persisting in the Hague, sent a message to potential perpetrators
around the world.
Experience was difficult but
has been shared with others since.
Biggest reconstruction effort
since Marshall plan – but there is lesson of limited absorption capacity,
because so much came so soon before institutions were developed, and when
they were ready, funding had been spent. Project has to be completed
to the end.
Infrastructure rebuilt, return
of property to refugees, central government strengthening relations with
different levels of government.
Wrong to believe Balkans always
divided. Balkans victims of Nazism, but also contributed in united
fashion against Nazism. 1984 reunited for Sarajevo Olympics – despite
being a meeting place of borders of religions and cultures.
UNSC dealing with peace-keeping
in Somalia, Sudan, Haiti – we forget what kind of achievements have taken
Dayton left internal divisions,
political parties representing one ethnic group only, delivering different
messages to each and not building consensus.
In last few years, though, a
consensus party has won a majority of votes. Will help with European
integration, consensus party permitting constitutional arrangements.
Slovenia, to North?
Most developed, first to have
referendum on independence, did not suffer much in war, and became a member
of EU some years ago. Much space is there for cooperation with EU.
Economy and corruption?
While rest of Eastern Europe
had to cross from socialist economy to free market, Bosnia had multiple
transitions. From war to peace, socialist to free market, industry
destroyed by war, brain drain, lack of newest Know-how. Difficult
to reorganize economy postwar, amid other problems. Postwar parties
winning were based on army – beginning of democracy, people trusted leaders
who grabbed companies for themselves in first wave of [privatization.
Now have more constructive system with European help, more focused on development
(may privatize energy and communications). Croatian and Serbian economies
Bosnian government's position
Still a burning issue in Bosnia,
didn't deal with it on presidential agenda, did not vote on whether to
No port on Adriatic sea?
Used to use Croatian port of
Plocha, but now only had 20 km of coast, not a good place for port.
In discussions with Croatia over port.
How much cooperative trade among
the Balkans, and how much competition?
Competitive, but first wave
of cooperation has emerged.
What role do women play in society
Strong role; obvious cultural
traditions and gaps, but participation of women is increasing. NGOs
Reputation of Tito?
Still Sarajevo's main St is
Tito St – people rejected attempt to rename it. Tito as leader against
Fascism and in unity was good, but historical crimes may have to be considered.
Does Serbia accept the peace
accords, or have eyes on other parts of country?
Serbia has progressive, pro-Euro
government at present, even though they have some conservative elements,
which makes it difficult at election times for progressives.
What kind of government?
Set up by Dayton accords. Nine
ministries in central government, and two entities: Serbska Republic, and
another entity with the two other groups in ten cantons, and own two governments.
At least 13 governments. Sometimes difficult to make it function, but it
does provide services to citizens.
Entry into EU?
Turkey is a separate issue,
long period of probation – but EU sent strong message that whole of SE
Europe might be integrated, has not been questioned by any leaders since.
Timing has not been set, though, so issue is when reforms can be established
to aid entry.
Experiences at UN and on Security
Great honor but many unknowns,
not having embassies in many countries. Had to create new staff and
function 24/7, with assistance, but delegation does not have the same knowledge
that permanent members have from 50 years compared to Bosnia's 2 years.
What is attitude of citizens
towards assistance in past and future?
Quite positive view of international
community, helped economy and restructuring military. But some skepticism
now, some wish international community would leave earlier than others,
but important that international community stay and finish the job.
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US Sec of State has called for
Bosnia-Herzegovina to grow stronger, build state institutions. Needs
to create capacities so when EU comes knocking there is someone to answer.
There needs to be space for constitutional reform.
16 November 2010: Dennis Lockhart,
"The Dollar, The Economy: Does the Fed Matter?" President and CEO of the
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Dennis Lockhart, introduction
First chair of new WAC of
Views expressed are his
3 Nov. FOMC announced purchase
of $600 Bn of Treasury notes.
Normally purchasing and selling
small quantities of Treasurydebt but now interest rates are low and expected
to remain so for extended period. Small scale purchases cannot now
affect money supply but need large scale.
I supported ‘QE2’ quantitative
easing. Term best reserved for expansion of bank reserves – so really
this is more like last year's asset purchasing program – so I will not
use QE2 term.
Max employment and price stability
– two goals of Fed.
Ultimate sellers of Treasury
bills and notes will tend to push up prices of assets they then buy, hence
lower yields, hence lower cost of borrowing for businesses.
Decision to buy was made amid
considerable uncertainty, risks & rewards and cost & benefits.
Every policy option available has risks, there are no riskless options.
Controversial decision both here and abroad.
Varying characterizations of
motivations and even of terms used.
4 views of critics, each
1. Fed. is monetizing
federal debt – historically has led to higher inflation and harmed
holders of Treasury bonds. Not our objective to inflate away government
debt – but to maintain objective of low target inflation, and will adjust
as goals are met. Purchase program is conditional and will be reevaluated
when conditions cease. Independent of fiscal considerations.
2. Fed. is devaluing
dollar – normally I defer to US Treasury on matters related to $ –
but no intent to prompt dollar appreciation. Prices of many assets are
affected by this – but price of $ in foreign exchange markets not a goal.
Best for $ is long term stability of strong economy.
3. Maybe inflation down
road – that this is unconventional and unfamiliar. True that
we are not targeting Fed. funds rate (short term rate for banks).
Uncertainty true – revolves around scale and lags. Perceived risks
of overshooting inflation must be weighed against risks of inactions, chiefly
inflationary relapse tipping into spell of deflation. Signs in summer
of disinflation that could lead to inflationary expectations. Our
experience of dealing with inflation and deflation is not symmetrical.
Deflationary spiral far less familiar for policymakers.
4. This easing won't
work. Will fail to foster growth and price stability. I don’t
have outsize expectations, see it as precautionary measure. Some
incremental positive effect on overall demand. Should counter to
some extent the econ headwinds. TIPS spreads over similar Treasuries
without inflation protection were declining over the summer, and now have
recovered to previous levels. Deflation probabilities have fallen
to prior level. Will ensure inflation expectations remain in desired
zone. Summer, first considered, economy was not in such good shape
to avoid the danger zone as now. Outlook is of deliberate pace of
improvement. I expect recovery to strengthen for coming year. Recovery
is still constrained by cautious credit, ongoing deleveraging by businesses
and households, restructuring of commercial real estate, uncertainly of
government policy. Now households and businesses have improved their balance
sheets. Businesses cash holdings have improved. Modest, measured and well
calibrated action program can be calibrated as circumstances evolve.
Asset purchase program will need to be reversed eventually and Fed. has
tools to do this.
1. speech posted on Atlanta
Federal Reserve web site “Toward a Faster Recovery and Reduced Risk ...”
Top of Page
2. Where did Fed. get its
money to buy the assets? Central bank has rare powers, can draw check on
itself and check will clear. We can create the money – and when we
sell the assets back we destroy money.
3. Removing half of mandate
to ensure full employment? Recent proposal from Senator – so political
issue, unable to comment, will continue to work with the two existing mandates.
4. Prior QE1 money still
sitting in banks' balance sheets, so why new one? We refer to it as $1.7
Trillion in balance sheets of banks with Fed Res, level has remained unprecedentedly
high at about $800 Billion, latent resources. Two economists at Jackson
Hole [conference] argued let existing reserves flow instead of new QE2
(or Large assets program). We interact with banks on their lending
standards, and they are more cautious than before, but we reinforce that.
Banking system is healing but consequence of cautious posture is high level
of reserves that have not yet turned into loans. Much credit is done through
shadow banking system of mortgages and care loans, not as regulated.
Additional liquidity should bring that system back to its full potential.
5. How will banks survive
massive number of foreclosures that now we understand were truncated by
‘robosigning’ problem and AG lawsuit? Only affects some banks, so too early
to draw conclusions, will eventually allow some banks to resume, but we
have not yet seen enough to predict.
6. Why is price of gold
going up? Because not going down! No expert on gold, but is seen as both
a monetary asset and a real use asset, commodity of mixed roles.
More equivalent investment decision than during high interest rate period.
Indian Delali holiday requires giving gold as gift currently.
7. Are we headed for liquidity
trap? Would mean lots of money but no one using it. No, but
we are certainly having to make adjustment and it’s taking some time to
soak up liquidity. Currently banks aggressively seeking to loan,
and other signs of recovery.
8. Argument made abroad
that US is competitively devaluing, stoking it’s exports. US is 25%
of global GDP, so all interested in its recovery – but not the intent to
affect exchange rate.
9. Atlanta international
city – do you deal with other central banks directly, or defer to Bernanke?
Substantially Board of Directors of Governors of Fed. plus special role
of NY Federal Reserve. Atlanta does have some interactions over payment
systems connected via central banks to other countries, first of which
was Mexico, needed payment system to Mexican people.
10. David Brooks in this
morning's New York Times column, writes US economic model more appropriate
to developing countries than developed. Who keeps this economic model?
Frustrated with use of “model”, not an economist, they talk about conceptual
models, likely what this means, rather than econometric model. We
ran 7 or 8 different models to see how they work. Brooks is probably
talking about structural model of [high] consumption % versus [low] investment
% of economy.
1 February 2011, "The Future of Korea,"
a panel of speakers [see Biographies]:
Ambassador Charles (Jack) Pritchard,
Korea Economic Institute;
Mr. Greg Scarlatoiu, Director of
Business Issues and Public Affairs, Korea Economic Institute; and
Aloysius O'Neill, consultant, Office
of Korean Affairs, U.S. Department of State.
of Korean peninsula | HiRes
| LKL's Korean war map
Country briefing, atlas and encyclopedia data
Economist, "The World In Figures: South Korea," Nov. 2010
Economist, leaders and articles on North Korea, 2010-11
World Factbook: Korea, South (Atlas-type database)
World Factbook: Korea, North (Atlas-type database)
entry on South Korea (true to form, this is one of the more carefully researched
and written entries)
Analysis of US-South Korean relations from Dr. Cinzia Balit-Moussalli,
Huntingdon College, 31 Jan 2011
free after SKorea launches ‘high-tech’ raid," Myanmar Times, Jan.31-Feb.6,
2011 [Counter-piracy assault succeeds off Somalia]
Korean conflict, 50th anniversary
"Satellite images support North Korea reactor claim," 19 Nov. 2010
Sutherland, "Images Show North Korea Building New Nuclear Reactor," NPR,
19 Nov. 2010 | Satellite
Korea-- 2010 Overseas Diplomatic Directory for Europe and Central Asia,"
US Open Source Center, December 29, 2010 (at FAS).
video (18 Feb. 2011) for Wolf Blitzer, "Six Days in North Korea" documentary
video of trip with Gov. Richardson, first shown Sat. 19 Feb. 2011
DOD, 50th Anniversary of Korean War, site | Global Security: Summary
of the Korean War, 1950-53 |
Images of Korea
Korean Language site, Korean war timeline & map
Night images contrasting lit up South with dark North
South Korea | North
Korea | FotoSearch
| Life in Korea
| Flickr | Cheju
Island resort (spectacular)
Korea’s spectacular economic development and US-SK relations.
Al O’Neill, Cooperation SK-US
Per capita income only $67 postwar,
but now Hyundai employs 2500 in Mgmy alone. 15th economy in world.
Rags to riches in 20 years that took others 200 years.
US provided security that allowed
Han river miracle. 35K US and $40 Bn lost in war, then $24 Bn aid
Now SK is a provider of aid
to to others. Peace Corp volunteers in 1960s, but now provides own
peace corps to others.
SK now engages in FDI abroad.
1975 32% of exports 25% of imports from US.
Work, innovation, entrepreneurship,
economic miracle a source of great pride.
Trouble on peninsula though
would affect world economy, though in response to NK provocations, SK is
responsible and restrained.
Now pc income $17,175 by World
Shipbuilding 2d to China. Banker
for LDCs #1. #5 in automobiles. 12th largest importing and
same for exporting. $321 Bn imports, 2009.
1960s-70s government led switch
from import substitute industries to export industries. Light, then
a decade later, heavy industries developed. From textiles and shoes
… to steel, ships and high tech products.
Most wired country in world,
2d in broadband users.
Joined OECD 1996. Overcame Asian
financial crisis in 1997. FIFA 2002, 2010 G20 in Seoul.
One of E.Asia’s largest liberal
Park Chung Hee and other leaders
did make financing available for entrepreneurs. Some collusion between
bureaucrats and business, but bureaucrats untainted by Asian standards.
1960s-70s set export targets
as performance measures. Economic ties with US have always been strong.
US now seeking bilateral free
Trade Agreement (FTA) and will build momentum for both. Important
US interests involved in regaining market share (ex. Agriculture, wine
– to recover from Chile’s taking over wine supply when signed FTA w/ SK)
AL will benefit from FTA exports
have increased greatly to SK in the past decade (examples); and tariffs
will be phased out over a decade, following some immediate benefits.
Shared values among US, AL and
Amb. Pritchard, President
of KEI. (Served under Clinton and Bush, and served in Asian affairs
in NSC. Negotiator with NK.)
anti-piracy; Afghan; reconstruction;
economic cooperation in APEC & G20; nuclear security; pandemic disease
100K students in US at all levels.
Comparable to Chinese and Indian student numbers.
2m Korean US residents (though
hard to pin down). More Koreans here than in other Asian countries.
Rep. Giffords (recently shot)
was treated by K-Am surgeons at both hospital trauma centers.
US security on K peninsula.
Defense Treaty is cornerstone of relationship since postwar period.
NK has often expressed desire
to engage with US but has not always lived up to agreements. Has
tested 2 nuclear devices and developed technologies since signing nuclear
Naval corvette sunk last year
with sailors lost. Objective scientific, international investigation
showed only convincing possibility is that she was sunk by torpedo from
Nov 2010 NK revealed Uranium
enrichment at nuclear facility. Dr. Hecker of Los Alamos was shown
centrifuges for enrichment for fuel for LWR. Some reconfiguration
could permit highly enriched uranium (from 3% fuel to 90% weapons grade.)
Existence of facility puts them in violation of UN Resolution 1718 and
1784 post their tests 2007 and 2009. Also violates agreements 2005.
Chinese have given signals recently
of concern over DPRK enrichment – called for resumption of 6 party talks,
via Hu Jintao statement.
Shelling incident on island
near NK coast, first time NK attacks have killed SK civilians (2) since
airliner was shot down. Hardened SK public opinion.
What can you expect this coming
year from NK? Have been there 11 times.
Kim Il Sung died 1994 and about
to turn 100.
Seen as demagogue, not a deity,
though his presence lingers on in statuary.
Masons are now exporting talents
Still president of the country,
despite being dead.
Anecdote about Madeleine Albright's
visit to his body.
NK leadership is there to perpetuate
leadership, not welfare of people. Kim Il Sung groomed own son to
take over – but was not deity so would need years to build power through
He did not prepare for succession,
but now 69 and stroke hit a few years ago. Survival plan was 3rd
son to be heir apparent, unusual in Asia. Oldest fell out of favor
about 2002, when wanted to go to Tokyo Disneyland, with fake passport,
then banished to Macao to gamble away his time. Middle son seen as
effeminate. Younger son is 26 and NK fixing his birth certificate
to make him 30. Looks like grandfather.
Changed constitution (National
Defense Commission, rather than workers party, more or less runs country),
expanded NDC led by brother in law.
Kim Jung Il made a general and
made sister a 4 star general.
Devaluation by 100 factor, banned
foreign currency – caused backlash, discontent, forced government to backtrack
No agreement on maritime boundary
, five islands close to NK above the natural line extension, but
US unilaterally declared them to SK. 1999 & 2002 incidents.
One NK patrol boat strayed south and was shot up.
Rock bottom relations.
For 10 years SK sunshine policy under 2 administrations, criticized for
getting nothing in return.
New conservative administration
with poorer relations, 2010.
NK trying to rally own people
at cost of external relations, 26 March attacks and November. Ship
and Island attacks are being falsely credited to heir apparent.
US is rebuffing NK, telling
them to talk with SK first.
Why attack and then offer talks?
NK has pushed envelope with PRC, and PRC not thrilled – they do not want
collapse but they want to restrain.
NK wants to be a prosperous
nation by 2012 100th anniversary. But noone will invest with behavior
like last year.
SK has already changed rules
of engagement and will react far more muscularly – NK has to change behavior.
Next week, there will be a meeting
of military N&S at Colonel level to prepare for Generals.
Nothing successful will come
out of 6 party talks – NK will not give up on nuclear weapons during a
succession period – need expanded agenda. If father dies within 2
years, I do not believe son will have built power base and uncle may take
power away from him.
Top of Page
Greg: in times of crisis in
world markets, Korean exports suffer, but SK also exports tools and capital
to China so takes a second hit. Korea is always squeezed between
low Chinese prices and high Japanese quality. SK manufacturers have
made spectacular progress on quality (e.g. Hyundai motors).
Korean restructuring post 1997
Asian financial crisis? Banks in Hong Kong kept lending on short
term while SK investing in longterm. The bubble burst. Chaebols
an issue, eg Daewoo had tried to grow in E. Europe but this was not sustainable
– power of chaebols was curbed. Cross-ownership was disallowed, allowing
more balanced development with smaller and medium enterprises.
NK charm offensive? NK
has given SK a policy shift. It is in SK hands to determine whether
NK is sincere, then SK can signal to US whether to rejoin talks.
Pritchard – fear they are changing goalposts, SK are sensing upper hand,
making it more difficult for NK to move the talks forward. But if
we do not take advantage of charm offensive, [leadership transition window
8 March 2011: Dr. Charles Kupchan,
"Enemies into Friends: How Peace Breaks Out"
Professor of International
Affairs at Georgetown University
Senior Fellow at the Council
on Foreign Relations
Served on the Planning Staff
at US State Dept and on National Security Council staff
Taught politics at Princeton,
educated at Harvard and Oxford universities
Authored numerous books
and articles on national security and geopolitics
Enemies Become Friends With Charles Kupchan", Mortara Center, Georgetown
biographical page at the Council on Foreign Relations
biographical page at Foreign Affairs
Charles A.. 2010. "Palestinians Should Just Say Yes", New York Times,
15 Sep. 2010
event for Charles Kupchan at New America Foundation, with video of presentation,
26 May 2010
Moravcsik: A Reply to Charlie Kupchan" The Washington Note, Blog, 10 June
Clemons, Steve. "Charles Kupchan on How Nations
Make Peace". [Video
Canadians relaxed about their long border, completely
undefended since 1906 when British regulars withdrew.
Magical moments when peace breaks out, demilitarized
relationships also found on French-German border, geopolitically inconsequential
border, only 50 years after conflict.
How I investigated, what I found, and a few kernels
Searched historical cases where peace broke out
among longstanding rivals. Not merely ‘not war’ (like cold war).
Brazil and Argentina not at war, but were rivals
in C18th. Looking for peace breaking out.
Earliest 1291 AD pact in Switz when 3 cantons
Iroquois confederation: 5 tribes 1450 AD gathered
around camp fire, and drafted orally the great binding law. Not one
died in battle thereafter. Previously captives were shown to women,
to either be joined to tribe or cooked for dinner. Confederation
split over US revolutionary war between Americans and British.
1895 & 1906 Rapprochement between US &
UK. Previously main enemies till 1815.
What starts process, makes it develop and forms
Strategic necessity, not altruism, among 20 selected
cases. Generally, one country finds itself with too many enemies,
and needs diplomacy to move an enemy into the friend column.
1895 dispute between British Guiana colony &
Venezuela – US sent Monroe doctrine note, asked for neutral court to arbitrate.
UK rejected the note, there was talk of war in Congress, and war fever
was reported by the British ambassador. British cabinet called in
the war office and the admirals, and learned they did not have enough resources
in face of rivalry from the US, Germany, Japan and Boers – leaving not
only colonies but also the home isles exposed. Lord Salisbury wrote
to accept US note; and Arthur Balfour recognized Monroe doctrine in Parliament.
The US recognized this as a peace offering. The UK backed down, then
the US backed down on sealing in the Bering straits. This marked
the beginning of a relationship.
Fictional illustration of sending peaceful signals:
in the film The Hunt for Red October, the US attack submarine boat signals
the USSR’s defecting submarine boat by reversing her propeller, causing
cavitation noise, thereby giving away her position and showing benign intent.
Other signals: Brazil allowed Argentina to build
HE dam. Norway & Sweden allowed forts built on mutual border.
2nd stage allows 2-3 yrs. The US &
UK agreed on the Canadian border, then made a pact for the Panama canal.
The UK then supported the US alone on disputes. This showed their
mutual desire to step away from rivalry.
In first few stages diplomatic & leaders
hide moves from public. Lord Salisbury didn’t tell Parliament or
the public, when removing the US from the ‘2 power standard’ for the size
of the Royal Navy.
Then leaders take issue to society: an Anglo-American
business society met for dinners, with reverence for both anthems and both
flags. Tourism then picks up; finance, trading & the publication
of novels pick up, then deeper societal roots develop.
The final stage narrative is about each other:
Teddy Roosevelt says war between US and UK would be a civil war, and begins
talk of kinship on both sides. War plans on both sides were torn up.
The special relationship began in the Halifax
meeting of Churchill & Franklin Delano Roosevelt – but its roots
were in 1895.
1. Whether engagement is appeasement or good
diplomacy – usually is good. Most conflicts come to an end not when
one forces the other into -- submission but when they seek change.
Exceptions do occur where one, like Al Qaeda or Nazis, is dedicated to
destruction of the other.
2. The elixir is the practice of strategic
restraint. This may include dismantling border installations or settling
the Panama canal issue; in general, finding ways to step back from mutual
3. regime type doesn’t matter. We see democracies
as good, autocracies as bad – but the research found autocracies were reliable
Efforts to deconcentrate power:
(eg concert of Europe 1815 was dominated by Britain
and Russia, but empowered the Austrians and others.)
Washington DC was placed in a swamp to locate
it between Northern & Southern states.
European politicians likewise put the EEC’s capital
in a safe location.
The Swiss were badly divided among protestants
and catholics, so they made one capital rotate among their cantons.
4. economic interdependence doesn’t really matter
in these cases – a surprise.
Suharto, despite being one of the great thugs
– was a peacemaker in Asia.
Brazil and Argentina when they made peace in
1979, were both ruled by military juntas.
The Concert of Europe managed to bridge the gap
between constitutional monarchy and autocracies.
5. Culture matters.
The was only 1 case, that of German states during
the 1815-1871 unification. Otherwise it was important only after
political issues were settled by diplomats. The research shows core
political issues must be solved first.
6. Domestic politics blocked some on path of
peace, and stopped some efforts at rapprochement.
British made peace with China in 1902, in order
to bring battle ships back to UK water, because of the threat posed by
the new German battleship Tirpitz. Did not work as well with the
Japanese as with the US. Australia & New Zealand were not in
ASEAN, because of cultural differences. It is easier to ally within
a culture, than across cultures.
Syrian rapprochement in 1958-61 with Egypt, was
blocked by merchants’ resistance to Egypt’s pan-Arabist leader Nasser.
Nationalists at other times stop the move towards peace.
The US today: the signature policy of
President Obama is to engage and talk with the enemy. The only success
so far is with the Russia ‘reset button.’ Cooperation has occurred
on nuclear arms controls and reduction. The US Senate, though, was
close to rejecting the START Treaty, and that would have scuttled relations.
Change in relations with Havana faces domestic resistance, and the country
is polarized now, the most since 1910.
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This supposes competent governments, what about
The analysis above is relevant to tribes making
concessions within countries – like Afghanistan. The US should be
careful about getting involved militarily in these tribal situations.
The US overinvested troops and treasure over 150 members of Al Qaeda in
Afghanistan. The lesson from Iraq is to be careful about expecting
the locals to greet us – avoid intervention in Libya to arbitrate among
factions in a civil war.
China since Nixon’s rapprochement is prospering,
now developing navy, will there be a war with China or development of a
Probably a decade to develop relations, China
has generally developed sense of serving its people, if not a free country
(or even likely to become free in 30 yrs) and his coopted its middle class.
The US should fashion mutual accommodation now – later it will get ‘dicier’
in the South China sea, when China develops its own Monroe doctrine.
By 2020 they will have naval platforms and a tussle for naval supremacy
would be tougher.
How should the US deal with Iran?
The Obama administration has generally handled
Iran well, made its initial peace offering, is willing to talk about a
nuclear enrichment program, to enrich uranium abroad and return it to Iran.
The Stuxnet virus set back Iran’s nuclear program, messed up the centrifuges,
and the completion date was pushed back from about 2011 to about 2013.
Either bombing or living with Iranian nukes is unattractive.
Are there parallels with India & the US?
Relations are burgeoning, especially under the
W Bush administration’s deal with the civilian nuclear program, which turned
around the relationship, and made Bush a ‘rock star’ in India. President
Obama was treated with skepticism until his trip there, in Nov 2010. India
shares our democratic values, and our concern over the rise of China.
But a deep relationship is not there, since they disagree with us on various
issues – and agree on only 20% of votes in UN Security Council.
Did you include Ireland and N. Ireland in 20
case studies? No. Why did they cease hostilities? Not an expert.
Have you considered as causal factors, race,
ethnicity & religion?
When shared, they are helpful to peacemaking,
but a language barrier is not a strong factor. The bar is higher
to making peace across a cultural divide. Europe today, unlike N
Ireland, has no longer an ethnic conflict, and culture is no longer a barrier
Is technology of communication a factor?
Yes, President Obama is quickly heard around
the world, but no longer has the ability to address a single audience.
Wikileaks is a perfect example of the way in which if you say something,
you must assume it will become public in weeks, if not months. A
backdoor channel might be able to find an opening -- but it is extremely
difficult to conduct it with an enemy, and runs the risk of exposure.
Will there be peace & stability in the Balkans?
Yes, have probably seen their last serious war.
Bosnia is still divided along ethnic lines, had internal incentives, but
did not deal with deep political issues. Needs a constitution, for
example. Macedonia still sees itself as a Slavic nation but will
soon have a majority of ethnic Albanians. Serbia is quietly backing
down in relations with Kosovo, though still needs several more years.
Will accept that Kosovo is no longer a province of Serbia.
Will peace break out on the Korean peninsula?
North Korea not likely to last a long time, because
of neighborhood. Likewise Balkans live in good neighborhood, and
countries are integrating into EU. North Korea is an island of idiocy,
in a part of world that is doing quite well. The Middle East is less
safe, because current uprisings and the Shia/Sunni split remain troublesome.
We should wait out North Korea, they will tank and there will be reunification.
15 March 2011: Col. Andrew Bacevich,
PhD, Stallworth Lecture at Huntingdon College,
7 pm in Ligon Chapel, to which AWAC members are warmly invited. Links
on Dr. Bacevich.
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10 May 2011: Senior Air War College
Instructors report on their regional tours as part of the AWC Regional
and Cultural Studies Program
13 different courses followed by two weeks of
Dr. Stephen Burgess: Southern
Africa (also South Asia)
Dr. Mark Conversino: Russia
Dr. Burgess: we emphasize culture of Africa,
so different from students’ experiences.
South Africa, Zambia at peace, DR Congo a failed
state, and all have strategic minerals.
Cobalt, manganese and rare earth (cut off recently
by China, hence may become a weapon in future), platinum mine in South
Africa, cobalt mine in Zambia.
HIV AIDS has killed 5M South Africans. Thabo
Mbeki denied the existence of AIDS and South Africa did nothing for human
security for ten years.
Mugabe has run Zimbabwe into the ground over
ten years, in dispute with white farmers.
A number of countries intervened in DRC and benefitted
from the minerals. Rail map shows a hundred years of development
based on routes to minerals deposits. 75% of world platinum is based
in South Africa in very specific locations. China heavily involved
in strategic investments for ore. US concerned about manganese.
Although free markets work in South Africa, issues
of control of resources and of nationalization. Issue of black economic
empowerment, developing black entrepreneurs – but process is being abused
and Chinese are supplying funding.
Infrastructure: electricity shortages, did not
plan enough for expansion of industry; need more rail lines to export minerals.
Cobalt is located in Congo Katanga province,
bordering on Zambia – so Chinese investment may deprive US of ore in future.
DRC agreed to export millions of tons of copper and cobalt to China.
Dr. Conversino on Russia at a Crossroads.
Foreign officers tour the US while US officers
are abroad -- this time they included Hawaii.
Medvedev may run for second term instead of Putin
returning to Presidency – Duma has now extended Presidential term.
Russians realize they are a resource dependent
economy, lost 12% of GDP in crisis compared to US 3%. Hostage to
Very corrupt, at all levels from getting a driving
license to top levels of government.
Nationalism under Putin and modernization under
Med; United party has 2/3 of Duma.
Russians amused at handwringing over death of
OBL, because Putin has built career of brutal nationalism.
Chechnya is now relatively stable, though ironically
some violence in neighboring republics. “Russia does not negotiate
with terrorists. It annihilates them.” Rebel leaders have been
killed, backed by new law. 3 assassins were returned from Qatar.
Black widows in gassed cinema were shot. Some blowback attacks from
Islamic insurgency. Russians say internal issue, and until you in
US have had suicide bombers in your rock concerts and planes, don’t judge
our violations of human rights.
Role of Pakistan in harboring Bin Laden.
Development of China.
Strategy for 30 years has used jihad as weapon
against Soviets, India and even US. Bush policy was for or against
us, Pakistan for -- but played a double game and sponsored jihadis who
attacked Mumbai. Growing nuclear weapons program, over 100 weapons
with threat to use them in event of Indian invasion or blockade.
US mostly supplies 100,000 in Afghan via Pakistan. US has to remain
engaged with Pakistan over Waziristan also. Powerful ISI (running
jihadis) separate from army, and President Zidari’s elected government
has limited power vis-a-vis powerful military. US & Pakistan are “frenemies”.
Russia: demographics and economy?
China needs to be at $15,000 per cap income to
reach full industrial state, still a long way to go. US needs to
modify Chinese behavior via WTO and other organizations to ensure access
to minerals. Struggle for resources was part of cause of WWI and
What is in US interests, aggressive nationalist
Russia -- or failed state which is oil rich?
Single most important issue they face: CIA says
Russian population dropping half percent per year, life expectancy of men
is 59 from drink and heavy smoking, and AIDS now spreading, rampant, and
strokes, diet and violent culture. Pop now is 139M, but 3x as many
Chinese living in each border province compared to Russians east of Urals.
Offering bonuses to women, conception day, and cash prizes 9 months later.
But too few housing units.
Xenophobia against dark skinned foreigners on
streets, skinhead neo-Nazi gangs. Labor shortage cannot be filled
easily by immigrants for this reason. Next year will not have enough
males to maintain force structure, let alone healthy males. Other
Slavic republics likewise facing low birth rate and high death rate.
We were relieved when USSR expired quietly, but by mid century they may
be down to 120M pop .
In short term we must deal with Russia – they
want respect and do not feel they lost cold war, just removed from USSR
as Russia – and they still have largest stock of nuclear weapons and ruthless
security services. Using oil to drive a wedge between US and allies.
Cash registers are ticking in Moscow from oil.
Russian officers at AWAC.
Dr. Sorenson took a group to Tunisia, Egypt and
Yemen; and Dr. Hemmer to Syria just before the crackdown, and to Turkey
(a model for Arab spring) and Israel. Tunisia has a modern economy
and civilian government with military remaining in barracks. Still
uncertain where Tunisia will end up; totally new experience. Egypt
similar but has strong military role; Libya now in second month of war
with rebels now approaching Tripoli. Now US dealing with fluid situation,
and Israel (our major ally in middle East) is concerned. Iran has
Russian officers used to come to AWC, but one
woman wanted to stay; others who studied in west had careers ended, because
of suspicion. History of Russian officers who chased Napoleon back to France,
then led Decembrist revolution – and governments have been suspicious of
foreign travel ever since among military. Still much resentment of
US in cold war, and do not anticipate Russians being sent to AWC in future.
uprisings of Uighurs in NW both in demonstration
and with violence, suppressed by Chinese government. They also face
jihadi movements in NW.
Bush strategy was democratization in middle East,
developing outlets for expression that reduces opportunity for extremist
movements. Bubbling up from below, using social media and high tech.
Positive development, but what can US and others do to encourage this democracy,
and prevent these new regimes falling under influence of jhadis?
More difficult for Israel than when dictatorships ruled.
[Statement from member on floor about having
hosted Russian officers and supplied a used car for one who later defected.]
top generals and former minister of defense educated
at AWC – Ukrainian military did not behave as Libyan military did in upheavals.
Putin was exactly what Russia needed when Russian
ex-apparatchiki were looting, breakdown of law and order, withdrew from
Chechnya. Russian people demonstrated in support of their government,
and they could not understand hesitation to attack Bin Laden. The
men who run Russia also own Russia. Unlike other foreign students
at AWC, they have not gone to high positions.
Tour did go to Korea, but had to divert from
Japan to Taiwan. North Korea has been playing this game of an extortion
racket, using threat of nuclear weapons to obtain aid. Talks ultimately
failed and policy of US and South Korea is no longer to engage with NK
until nuclear weapons program is terminated. NK now using highly
enriched uranium instead of plutonium. NK has undertaken provocative
actions of sinking ship and shelling island. Succession crisis of
Kim Jong Il to third son.
created 2 years ago, engaging military to military,
partnerships, helping Africans create regional peacekeeping forces, but
Chinese well ahead and very aggressive, have turned some local regimes
from pro-west to pro-Chinese.
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