Web Hosted by Huntingdon College: Political Science program and Public & World Affairs Club. Notes and Links on Guests and Speeches, 2008-09, Alabama World Affairs Council Affiliated with WACs of America by Jeremy Lewis; revised 3 Nov. '08 with new speaker notes.

Maps index | Latin America | Asia

Alabama's developmental model of attrcting car assembly factories is being discussed in Europe.

Woodrow Wilson insisted on the Versailles Treaty iwth his 14 points.  (Clemenceau remarked even God only had 10 points.)  The US is Wilsonian, always fighting the war to end all wars.

US election campaign:

McCain has to hold the states of Bush in 2004 whereas Obama has only to add to Kerry's total, Iowa and New Hampshire plus one battleground state (from OH, CO, VA and NV).

Bush (43) administration foreign policy in context of Republican administrations of twentieth century

Obama would pursue pax Americana differently.

Previous Secs of State considered: Acheson, Kissinger, Schultz, Baker (faced Gulf 1).

Condi Rice wanted Israel to continue to victory in Lebanese war.  W. Bush is still seeking agreement in Palestine.

Iran: US was willing to accept freeze on nuclear weapons for freeze on sanctions -- but Iran could not accept, because Ahmadinejad had informed crowd in advance.

Georgia and Russia: Rice received mixed reviews.  Too enthusiastic publicly for Sakaashvili.

Turkey: very unlucky with its neighbors.  Unlikely to join EU via unanimous vote.  Russia has stopped some trucks fom entering Turkey, which has reciprocated despite the scale of oil flow and trade.  Putin wants to control Baku pipeline, whereas US did not want a pipeline via Iran or Russia.  Russia doesn't like US ships in Black Sea, even though allowed 21 days under treaty.

North Korea: Rice flew to Pyonyang to get Carter's Framework agreement back on track.  2001 sumit with W. Bush: Bush astonished then by openly distrusting Kim Dae Jung, undercutting him in South Korea.  2005 intelligence saw fuel for perhaps 8 nuclear weapons, compared to 4 in 2001.  W. Bush agreed to talks, North Korea shut down the reactor and allowed inspections.  There was concern over $25 million in laundered money in an Asian bank -- so Kim paused talks.  IN 2006 NK tested 7 missiles, then a nuclear weapon.  Rice restarted talks with assistance from a Russian bank.  After destroying a cooling tower, North Korea slowed its progress again.  Now Kim Jong-Il may have had a stroke, while lacking a successor, leading to fears of refugees and chaos.  US retains 22,000 troops in South Korea.  Five nations should present the same viewpoint in negotiations, but differ. Japan still wanting the return of kidnapped citizens.

North pole: could potentially save 3-4 shipping days with a channel -- but could also lead to conflict.  US has not yet ratified the law of the sea , a disadvantage.  Russia left a flag in the sea there.  Other nations are eyeing claims.

W. Bush has enjoyed good relations with Japan and some of Latin America, some of Eastern Europe -- but has destroyed some foreign relations.  Next president will need to repair some and rebuild military.

Talleyrand: above all, not too much zeal.

• Cuba?  Raoul less flamboyant but not much change.
• Journalism?
• NYT and WSJ will survive but many papers are in trouble.  Need younger readers but then lose older readers who want real news.  Lifestyle and trivia predominantly.
• Murdoch is retrenching on coasts of WSJ -- reduced foreign coverage.
• India/ Paki?
• Pakistan may not be dangerous at present.  W. Bush has promised weapons for India, controversial.    Congress may not approve.  Don't know who is in control of nuclear weapons.  Zadari in government, Sharif status is unclear.
• Ukraine entry to NATO?
• sitting duck.  Eastern part is ethnic Russian.  West is European.  Sebastopol harbor could be barred to Russian ships and lead to conflict.  France, Germany, Spain dubious about admitting Ukraine.
• Subprime mortgage collapse?
• could outlaw kickbacks as incentives for shorter term payback; could require credit check before mortgage.  Some regulation needed but not too much.
• Mexican /European immigration?
• yes, serious concern and will likely block Turkey from EU.
• W. Bush and Condi Rice: from your remarks, and historical examples, are they in foreign policy the weakest Republican President and among weakest Republican Secretaries of State in twentieth and twenty first centuries?
• yes -- but Rice unlucky with the president she served.  Bush weakest Republican president in foreign policy. [Conclusion]

• Maps index | Europe | Middle East | Asia

• Worked in LBJ white house, for Douglass Cater Jr of Montgomery.  During Selma – so mindboggling so see how far we have come as a society with the [diverse] candidates this year.  Raises respect abroad for our society.
• Knew Virginia Durr, inspiration of Rosa Parks.
• Two extraordinary men nominated by the two parties.  [Will Rogers anecdote about belonging to no organized party.]

• Foreign policy of next president in principle is to be strong at home and abroad.
• Global economic crisis, and getting economy back to envy of world.
• Much to McCain’s comment that fundamentals of American economy are strong – people.  Those abroad worry that we might not be able to lead and provide those things they need from us – the ‘indispensable nation’ even for French.
• Two wars in Iraq and Afghanistan –
• we have to validate what they have done with our own security strengthened and a path to peace.  Whoever is President, will wind down wars because we have achieved most of what we desired – and reduction of risk to troops will follow.
• Elections renew American society –
• Ulysses passed by island of Sirens – lash yourself to the mast until past the American elections.
• Afghanistan product of 9/11.  Seared into memory like Pearl Harbor.
• Issue of bringing Islamic countries into modern world and isolating those few criminals.
• Competition for hearts and minds; getting to point where average person in Afghan will see it is better to get involved with own govt than with AQ.  We need involvement in development, governance, AID.
• Recruiting Sergeants of terrorism rely on poverty and ignorance – idea from W. Bush.
• Challenge to get others to work with us.
• Blessed are the peacemakers for they shall never be unemployed.
• New security structure in Gulf.  Step one is Iraq.  Two is Iran.  Step 3 is Israeli conflict.  Step 4 is ?.  Step 5 is Saudi.  Work of a generation – whichever is President.
• Feb 1942, new CNO, Adm. King – when people get in trouble, that’s when they send for us SOBs.
• Far better to work with allies whenever we can, do it alone when we must.  Security multiplier with European allies.
• First security system since Charlemagne where every country could play if they accepted the rules.
• Russians overstepped bounds but they need us more than we need them.  Russians really losers in Georgia – contrast with what China achieved in a week at Olympics.
• American foreign policy only works when it is bipartisan – president must sell policy to Congress.
• Next president needs a few top foreign policy officials from opposite party (gave historical examples such as Stimson).
• Collapse of Soviet internal and external empires.
• W. Bush policy to ensure commitment to Europe and ensure WW2 cannot happen again.
• Take Central Europe off chessboard – lock them into NATO, successful.  Reach out to Russia.  Even Iceland (lacking army) sent nurses to war effort.
• New strategic partnership with EU (?) to dry up recruiting sergeants of terrorism.
• Reshape societies like Europe post WW2 and post Soviet in Central Europe, vibrant development.
• We have strong societies with strong governments and joining societies.  Every tourist or businessman is an ambassador for the US abroad.
• Democracy, good governance, US health care system is equivalent to 7th economy of world(!)
• Both presidential candidates: human rights, empowerment of women – US will be working on human trafficking etc under either president.  Same with global spread of diseases.  Build better structure around world.
• Nuclear weapons spread: talk to Iran, Europeans and even Israelis do it.
• Future of China and India.
• With Chinese have complex and interdependent relation: they hold a Trillion dollars of US paper.  Depend upon US for selling stuff.  Great Wal-mart of China.  Need their future to be developed without their becoming a military superpower.

• US: talented people and vibrant political system, regardless of messy elections.
• Need to modernize global financial system.
• Succeed regardless of next President.

• NATO expansion, even to North Africa?
• Demonstrates NATO’s success in transforming societies and embeds purpose of US.  Be cautious.  NATO is about security of countries when attacked.  ‘3 Musketeers’ alliance: all for one.  So only bring in countries if prepared to defend them.  Sakaashvili poked bear unwisely and Putin responded.  Georgia not to be defended – and some Balkan countries likewise.  NATO historically makes decisions unanimously – and then never defaults.  When Hunter Amb., 16 countries, now 26.  Keep NATO where it is and use as springboard.  Develop other structures.
• Working with muslim countries?
• Not confrontation between us and muslims – no concentration camps post 9/11.  Muslim societies have suffered from terrorism themselves.  Europeans have large muslim immigration now, and US has learned how to integrate more than Europeans have.  Pressure from European allies to aid middle east peacemaking, to do all the time, big challenge.  But if this were bar to European aid, they wouldn’t be in Afghan.  US, Brits and Canada, Dutch, Poles and Estonians – plus France – have been taking casualties in Afghan.  When French with you, really with you.  But they may not spend enough money.
• Believer in UN -- they do a lot of good stuff.  US is right to desire UN mandate but to go ahead anyway if they do not.
• Rebuilding International Banking sector?
• In Iraq, US reputation sank, especially with populations rather than governments.  Post 9/11 European governments came to our aid.  Even Le Monde said “We’re all Americans.”    This problem is worse in some ways – Europeans have long assumed US strong financial sector – shaking them to their boots.  Revolution in HR last Monday – Lehman executives were picking up golden parachutes in $10Ms – but we are good at bringing in new SOBs – started wth Reps. Hearing from constituents.
• Pakistan?
• Most problematic: dysfunctional government, nuclear weapons, society fractured, does not even control tribal pathan areas, refuge for Taliban and AQ.  Pakis couldn’t do more even if wanted to .  We are losing more casualties now in Afghan than Iraq.  New agreement (even though bipartisan) with India for access to peaceful nuclear power – mistake because Pakis complain.  Should have given Pakis more money than the $10Bn.  Don’t need more democracy – new leader had to shoot at UAVs to show his patriotism.
• Abu Dhabi has indoor ski slope shows floating in money.  We protect them against AQ and Iran.  We will continue in Iraq, no matter who is President.  We can demand a big check for reconstruction teams – all 3 star generals say that.  They can pay for other countries security in return for our free security to them.
• Iran blasting Israel off the map?
• Both McCain and Obama have said Iran will not be allowed to obtain nuclear weapons.  Even Israeli negotiates with them.
• Ahmadinejad’s inflammatory remarks: “Gotcha” journalism is a nuisance.  Hunter co-wrote Carter briefing book for Ford debate [1976] and did not even think E. Europe gaffe as a mistake.  Iran actually offered to clean up behavior in return for guarantees – but ignored by US and assistant did not even show it to Condi Rice.  Financial Times, 17 March 2003 had story, but not US press.  Brit, French and Germans negotiated with Iran to stop US attacking Iran.

Prior to joining the Council, Mr. Korb served as Director of the Center for Public Policy Education and Senior Fellow in the Foreign Policy Studies Program at the Brookings Institution; Dean of the Graduate School of Public and International Affairs at the University of Pittsburgh; Vice President of Corporate Operations at the Raytheon Company; and Director of Defense Studies at the American Enterprise Institute.

Dr. Korb served as Assistant Secretary of Defense (Manpower, Reserve Affairs, Installations, and Logistics) from 1981 through 1985. In that position, he administered about 70 percent of the defense budget. For his service in that position, he was awarded the Department of Defense's medal for Distinguished Public Service. Mr. Korb served on active duty for four years as Naval Flight Officer, and retired from the Naval Reserve with the rank of captain.

Dr. Korb's 20 books and more than 100 articles on national security issues include The Joint Chiefs of Staff: The First Twenty-five Years; The Fall and Rise of the Pentagon; American National Security: Policy and Process, Future Visions for U.S. Defense Policy;Reshaping America's Military; and A New National Security Strategy in an Age of Terrorists, Tyrants, and Weapons of Mass Destruction. His articles have appeared in such journals as Foreign Affairs, Public Administration Review, The New York Times Sunday Magazine, Naval Institute Proceedings, andInternational Security. Over the past decade, Mr. Korb has made over 1,000 appearances as a commentator on such shows as "The Today Show," "The Early Show," "Good Morning America," "Face the Nation," "This Week," "The News Hour with Jim Lehrer," "Nightline," "60 Minutes," "Larry King Live," "The O'Reilly Factor," and "Hannity and Colmes." His more than 100 op-ed pieces have appeared in such major newspapers as The Washington Post, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Times, Los Angeles Times, The Boston Globe, The Baltimore Sun, The Philadelphia Inquirer, and The Christian Science Monitor."

Maps index | Europe | Middle East | Asia | Latin America | Caribbean

Korb was actually the first speaker at AWAC.

• “Challenges faced by the Next Administration.”
• Foreign policy as driving at night.
• Changes in international environment.
• Age of American hegemony is over.
• Fukuyama, end of history, democratic capitalism universal.  Hyperpower.
• Was ending but we hastened it.
• Rising China India, resurgent Russia, Brazil.
• Had to rely on these states to bail us out [in recent financial crisis.]  No longer able to control destiny all by ourselves, must learn to deal with others.
• Inability to do things ourselves.
• Contrast with Working with China for Reagan on Taiwan issue.
• Suppose crisis over Taiwan, then China has ability to sell US bonds.
• Opinion polls around world show US does not rank highly any more.
• Youth in favorable third world elites more interested in experiencing Australia than US.
• Age of Reagan: government to stand back and allow markets to work.  Government as problem, not solution.
• Now saying the reverse, with Bush bail out of banks.
• For national security, budgets will therefore be tighter.
• Both candidates talking about health care, an expensive area.  $1.6 Trillion committed to bail out – and deficit was half Trillion before this.
• Bush doctrine now repudiated even by Bush.  2002 National Security Strategy.
• 1. US going from preemption to preventive war. Underlying this premiss was American exceptionalism and US power.  God’s gift to humanity – not building an empire.  But British had same outlook with their empire in Iraq.  In war, the other side takes advantage of our weaknesses.  Saddam’s failure in Gulf 1 led to better resistance tactics in Gulf 2.
• 2. Unilateralism. Bush dismisses EPA administrator, dropped Kyoto protocol; dropped biological weapons protocol, ABM limitations with Russians.  Shields: last liberal president (EPA, OSHA) was Nixon.  Rumsfeld dropped idea of allies assistance after 9/11.
• Must work with rest of world.  Nixon: multilateral if we can, unilateral if we must.  W. Bush is reverse.
• 3. Democracy is wave of future, even if it means regime change.  Axis of evil speech: Iran, Iraq, NK.  But Woodrow Wilson intended to make world safe for democracy, not actually democratic.  Reagan: tear down this wall – did not tear it down himself.
• Takes long time to build institutions.
• Our army is now having a terrible time, small volunteer army with competitive salaries.  Army develops fewer transferable skills than navy – so recruitment is costly.
• Reserve & Guard is strategic reserve, not operational reserve – but draft has no support.
• Deal is two periods at home for each one abroad – but now less time at home than abroad.  Spousal abuse, leaving service, and suicides all up.  Army cannot continue to fight if American people do not support – and 10% of recruits last year were convicted felons, given “moral waivers”.
• Ending of period of supplemental appropriations covering much of budget – modernizing equipment will have to come out of regular budget in next administration.
• $375 - $505 Billion DOD.  Costs $150,000 per trainee.
• Health care costs for all $57 Billion per year, 10% of defense budget.  Retirees care now replaces medicare for many – has expanded, benefits have improved in several ways, all of them costly.
• USAF is $100 Billion short for next three years for existing programs. Navy (short of ships compared to plans) just cancelled new destroyer, army cancelled info satellite system.  USAF tankers short and KC 135 is old, based on 707.
• Can we do it?  Not easy.  Be honest with American people, first war without draft or tax increases.  We went to war, you went to Wal-Mart.
• Military said avoided destroying Iraq -- but had no idea how bad shape the Iraqi infrastructure was in.
• Need Sec Def who understands military as professionals.  Of course, those in each service for career, believe in their missions.
• Rumsfeld needed to respect experienced officers disagreeing with him (like Shinseki).
• Need deputy who can manage large enterprise.
• 1969 Nixon has secret plan to get out of Vietnam, high interest rates, still conscription.  Health plan was more radical than Sen. Clinton’s, but Dems blocked it.
• Melvin Laird astute and understood military – persuaded to manage the post Vietnam decline.  Services needed to choose among weapons systems – and opened up to women in new volunteer service. Services hated McNamara who had raised their budgets – loved Laird who had cut them.
• Frank Carlucci was a good civilian government manager.  Put Korb in charge of C-17, needed new lift.  Kept $2 Billion separated and offered to USAF only for C-17s instead of fighters – they accepted.
• Rumsfeld treated work like hostile takeover.  Wolfowitz deputy smart but not an organizer.
• Marines do not need amphibious vehicles for assault now, have not since Inchon.
• Need someone competent and not ideological.

• Concern over national guard and reserves, in present use?
• Policy is only one year in 6 on active duty – but if use as active reserve, have problem.  If guard not here, homeland security becomes an issue.  Guard was not structured to fight long war.  Now working for small companies, absence causes problems in workplace and reduces recruitment.
• Issue of democratic administration respecting military?
• Stereotypes of liberals.  Actually quite different.  Sen. Hegel might be Obama’s Sec Def, for example.  Also could be McCain’s.  Nat sec for years was not a partisan issue.
• Political strategy in Gulf  war 1.
• Go to UN for authorization.  Then collect money and troops from other nations.  Then wait till after election before attacking Iraq.  Promised Congress low casualties.
• Eisenhower tough on military in 1950s.
• Bush 2000 promised to raise defense budget over next ten years.
• But Rumsfeld was planning wholesale cuts before 9/11 – including two army divisions.
• Wealth distribution, social security and medicare?
• RWR appointed Dole, Moynihan and Greenspan commission to look at aging population, set up Social Security trust fund for future.
• Clinton handed $5 Bn surplus to Bush in that.
• Bush then cut taxes.  Now Bush has spent trust fund.  $200 Billion of the current $450 Billion deficit was earmarked for SSA.
• Nixon in 1969 kept LBJ surcharge to cover war.  Dropped tax cutting ideology because of war.
• Biden issue: would inexperienced Obama be tested by foreign power?
• Not by a major nation but by AQ type challenge.  JFK learned much at Vienna, handled missile crisis better next year.
• Iran actually held moment of silence after 9/11.
• At CFR, received dinner invite from Iranian embassy – did not like AQ sunnis, Taliban, drugs in Afghan – offered help.  Iran supported Karzai in power because Pashtun, made conference successful.  Then Bush put them into axis of evil.  Egypt, Turks and Qatar have been convening regional conferences recently without US lead.
• Next National Security strategy?
• Supposed to happen annually from each president.  Bush only 2 in 7 years.  2002 and 2006.  Bush doctrine is most readable and brief.
• Next president has to evaluate threats; army says likely from failed states.  But also AQ types and long term rise of great powers.
• DOD spends $13.2 Bn on missile defense but whole coastal defense is only $9 Bn.  May need to fund diplomacy also.
• Nixon’s opening to China meant could build military just for Soviet threat.
• If counterinsurgency is strategy, then need forces for that purpose.  But Sec. Gates has not made choices.
• How long is War on Terror going to last?
• Wrong term – actually going to war with enemies.  Terror is only a tactic.

Maps index | Middle East | Asia | Latin America | Caribbean

Maps index | Cuba | Latin America | Caribbean

Maps index | Middle East | Asia | Latin America | Caribbean