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PSC 305: Presidency & Congress | PSC 311: Voters, Parties & Elections | Charts of '07-'08 Polls
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an award-winning teacher, author, and my former tutor in psephology, who died in Fall 2007. He would have loved this election season. |
Revised 6 Nov. 2008, by Dr. Jeremy
Lewis, Professor of Political Science.
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Alabama: 22 precincts sampled as part of whole exit poll (margin of sampling error is therefore larger) "Key findings from the Alabama exit poll"11/4/2008, 11:41 p.m. ET, The Associated Press via AL.com AP, "Exit Poll Shows Alabama Voters Worried About Economy" 4 Nov. 2008 1,000 AL voters, by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky, 20 precincts sampled, +/- 5 points. [Must be subsample of national exit poll] US: 17,244 voters, including telephone polling of 2,407 people who voted early, and a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 1 percentage point for whole sample. From http://www.etaiwannews.com/etn/news_content.php?id=781201
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Ted Anthony, "A worried America chooses its course for change," International Herald Tribune, 5 Nov. '08National exit polls: To get first black president -- virtually all blacks Presidential appointments to the Supreme Court -- 6 in 10 Affordable Health Care -- 2 in 3, of whom 6 in 10 for Obama Economy is in bad shape -- 9 in 10 Economy is most pressing issue -- 6 in 10
US President: Obama + Biden 60.5% | McCain + Palin 38.7% AL was one of McCain's top states in the nation, others being the South, mountain states and plains states, most reliably Republican. Funds raised in Alabama: unlike the nation, McCain seemingly raised more, $1 M from Birmingham alone. Both candidates raised most in Alabama from the cities and suburbs. US Senate: Jeff Sessions reelected with 1.3 M votes (63.5%) over Vivian Figures 746,000 (36.5%) Figures took only the black belt counties across the state, with large majorities. Montgomery county gave her 55.3%. US House: district 1: Bonner (R) district 2: Bobby Bright (D) 143,997 50.3% | Jay Love (R) 142,231New (open seat) district 3: Mike Rogers (R) 141,100, (53%) | Josh Segall (D) 124,399, (47%) district 4: Aderholt (R) 74.8% district 5: Griffith (D) 51.5% New (open seat) district 6: Bachus (R) district 7: Davis (D) New Deal water projects area (NW) and high tech area (north), Black belt (middle) and wiregrass (SE) returned democrats. Suburban and white rural areas returned Republicans. Two republican seats were replaced narrowly by democrats. They may return to office in two years' time. Bright is the first democrat since 1962.. -- figures from Gannett Segall closed the gap from 21 points to 8.5 points a week before the election, not bad for a 29 year old newcomer. -- figures from Gannett Montgomery County Commission: Reed Ingram 12,900 votes (50.7%), | Randy Rushton 12,537 (49.3%) Jill Nolin, "Ingram retains County Commission seat," Mgmy Adv. 5 Nov. '08. From 2004 to 2007, the county's debt grew from $48.3 to $148 million. New bond issues, were used for the following: $2 million for new election equipment, $73 million for Annex III and jail expansion; $5 million for renovations at Annex II; and $28 million for Montgomery Public Schools' building projects. Montgomery County revenue commissioner: Janet Buskey (D) 59,970 (60%) | Jane Mardis (R) 39,125 (40%). The job begins in Oct. '09, the new fiscal year. Buskey, a replacement (D) candidate, is outreach director for Lt. Gov. Jim Folsom Jr., but she was internal auditor for the Alabama Department of Education and Department of Rehabilitative Services. AL Public Service Commission: Lucy Baxley (D) 1,006,479 votes | Cavanaugh (R) 995,722 votes. Recount required under state law, to begin 25 Nov. -- figures from Gannett Courts: Republicans won all four appeals court races, including an expensive Supreme court race, giving them all seats on the appellate courts, except Chief Justice. Supreme Court: Greg Shaw (R) 50.4% defeated Deborah Bell Paseur (D) "We are going to wait until every last vote is counted," campaign manager Marion Steinfels said Wednesday. [Phillip Rawls, AP, 5 Nov.'08] -- Marion is a 2003 political science graduate from HC. A recount is triggered by law if the race is within a half point. Court of Civil Appeals: incumbent Bill Thompson (R) defeated Kimberly Drake (D) . open seat, Court of Criminal Appeals: Beth Kellum (R) beat Clyde Jones (D), open seat, Court of Criminal Appeals: Mary Windom (R) defeated Aimee Cobb Smith (D) . The four winning court candidates toured all 67 counties in a brightly painted RV, stopping in about 100 small towns. Paseur raised $2.42 million from the state Democratic Party and lawyers, while Shaw raised $1.60 million from business groups. Spending by Citizens for Individual Freedom on ads praising Shaw helped him equal Paseur's." [Phillip Rawls, AP, 5 Nov.'08] Montgomery Cty. Circuit Court: Johnny Hardwick (D) 60,366 (60%) | Randy James (R) 39,826 (40%) James accused Hardwick of a backlog of cases. Hardwick is an African American appointee of Gov. Sigelman's.
David Espo, "'Defining moment': Obama challenges America to hope, dream," The Associated Press, 5 Nov. 2008 Nearly 80% of whites voted for McCain | blacks virtually all voted for Obama Republicans have won the presidential vote in Alabama since 1980. Jimmy Carter (D), won in 1976. Voters under $50,000 income; and young voters, were split between the candidates. Voters over $100,000, economic voters, and women, all favored McCain Doug Abrahms, "Sessions gets 3rd term in Senate", Mgmy Adv., 5 Nov. '08 US Sen. Jeff Sessions has focused on veterans' needs, Iraq and social issues, including immigration. Sessions won easily and raised $5.2 million for his re-election by Sept. 30 compared to $303,000 for Vivian Figures. Sessions held $4.1 million in cash on Sept. 30 that he could have used. Figures only had about $13,000 at that point. In three polls this fall, Sessions led Figures by at least 29 points.
Results: demographic shifts from exit polls: map slideshow NEW US President (270 electoral votes needed) Obama + Biden 349 electoral votes | McCain + Palin 147 Obama + Biden 63 M popular votes (52.4%) | McCain + Palin 56 M (46.4%) Although not a landslide in the popular vote, the electoral college made the win convincing -- and historic. The total vote at 119 million, increased over 2004. Funds raised by FEC report, 20 Oct.: Obama $639 M | McCain $330 M = $1 Bn US Senate Democrats 54 seats plus two independents | Republicans 40 4 seats still in doubt Democrats will likely still not have 60 votes for cloture of debate, unless they attract a few Republican votes. They may not pick up the expected 24-28 seats. US House Democrats 252 seats (was 236) | Republicans 172 (was 199) Democrats had been predicted to pick up more than 20 seats, perhaps 28 seats. State Governors State legislatures
Missouri: Obama 49.3 | McCain 49.5 All counties still in doubt on 6 Nov. Since 1992 has been going from mostly Democratic counties to mostly Republican, except for the few urban areas. See NY Times map Colorado: Obama 52.5% | McCain 46.4% New Mexico: Obama 56.7% | 41.9% Florida: Obama 50.8% | 48.4% North Carolina: Obama 49.9% | McCain 49.6% -- closest states South Carolina: Obama 44.7% | McCain54.1% Virginia: Obama 51.8% | 47.3% Michigan: Obama 57.3% | 47.1% Indiana Obama 49.9% | 49% -- closest states Ohio Obama 51.3% | 47.1% Pennsylvania: Obama 54.6% | 44.3% Montana: Obama 50.1% | 46.7% New Hampshire: Obama 54.8% | 44.4% Arizona 44.5% | McCain 53.7% Nevada Obama 55.1 | 42.7% New Hampshire had given McCain a primary victory -- but not Obama South Carolina had voted against McCain memorably in the 2000 primary, favoring W. Bush -- but it had given Obama a primary victory in 2008.
17,244 voters, including telephone polling of 2,407 people who voted early, and a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 1 percentage point for whole sample. http://www.etaiwannews.com/etn/news_content.php?id=781201 White voters: 55% for McCain (split outside South; South 67% for McCain, same as 2000 & 2004.) Under 30s: 69% Obama, and high at 20% of voters, equalled over 65s Party ID: 40% said Democrat, historic high, 25% indeps, favored Obama. Seniors 65+: half for McCain, but this time they only equalled youth at 20%. White, working class: heavy for McCain but less than in 2004 Enthusiastic for candidate? 60% of Obama supporters but under 30% of McCain's. Scared of other candidate? Half of Obama and half of McCain supporters. Women: strong majority for Obama Men: slim majority for Obama New voters: 20% black, 20% hispanic, 67% under 30 Independents: 1/3 and favored Obama Republicans: only 20% Palin was an important factor? 40%, but they split between candidates Of Republicans saying Palin important: 90% for McCain Economy most important: 60% Also Worried about health care: 67% Also Worried about terrorism: same