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Election Campaign 2008: Discussion and Debate Notes | Primary Blog | General Blog

For my students.  Revised 16 Oct. 2008, by Dr. Jeremy Lewis, Professor of Political Science.

A memorial to Prof. Milton C. Cummings Jr, of the Johns Hopkins University, 
award-winning teacher, author, and my former tutor in psephology, who died in Fall 2007.
He would have loved this election season.
CNN Politics (votes, delegates) | Real Clear Politics (polls) | Economist | Politico | Time (primaries) | Reuters-CSPAN-Zogby Polls | USA Today (Results & Polls)
FactCheck | Politifact Truth-o-Meter | Snopes.com | Wash. Post Fact-Checker |
Calculate Electoral College outcomes of opinion surveys: Electoral-Vote | Pollster |


CONTENTS:

 
  • Candidate Notes on John McCain
  • Candidate Notes on Mitt Romney
  • Candidate Notes on Mike Huckabee
  • Candidate Notes on Barack Obama
  • Candidate Notes on Hillary Clinton
  • Reliable Sources, Howard Kurtz, CNN, 6 Jan. '08
  • NBC Meet the Press, 6 Jan. '08: John McCain
  • New Hampshire debate 5 Jan. '08, ABC News, St. Anselm College.
  • First presidential debate, 26 Sep. '08
  • Vice Presidential debate 2 Oct. 2008
  • Second Presidential debate, 7 Oct. 2008NEW
  • Third presidential debate, 15 Oct. 2008 NEW
  • HC political science students watch third presidential debate, Ashley Hopkinson, "Collegians Bring Critical Eye to Debate," 15 Oct. '08, in Montgomery Advertiser  [Local] New

  • Candidate Notes on John McCain

    (CNNPolitics.com)
  • Why Conservatives dislike McCain, a claim checker article from PolitiFact.org
  • Bio:
  • Career:
  • Further info:
  • Awarded the Silver Star, the Bronze Star, the Legion of Merit, a Purple Heart and the Distinguished Flying Cross after his release as a POW in Vietnam.
  • McCain's father and grandfather were both U.S. Navy admirals. They were the first father and son to achieve that rank.
  • He is often described as a "maverick" for his independent and sometimes divisive stances on issues.
  • In 2002, he became the first sitting U.S. senator to host "Saturday Night Live."
  • He is author of "Faith of My Fathers" (1999); "Worth the Fighting For: A Memoir" (2002); "Why Courage Matters" (2004); and "Character Is Destiny" (2005).
  • Issue Positions:
  • Abortion: Opposes abortion rights except in cases of rape, incest or to protect the life of the mother.
  • Immigration: Co-sponsored Bush-backed immigration reform legislation, which would have increased funding and improved border security technology, improved enforcement of existing laws, and provided a legal path to citizenship for some illegal immigrants. Voted to authorize construction of a 700-mile fence along the U.S.-Mexican border.
  • Iraq: Voted for use of military force in Iraq. Supported Bush veto of war spending bill that would have withdrawn most U.S. troops by March 2008. Was an early proponent of sending additional American troops to Iraq.
  • Same-sex marriage: Supports definition of marriage as a union between a man and a woman, but opposes a constitutional amendment banning same sex-marriage. Says individual states should decide the issue. Says a federal marriage ban might be appropriate if courts overturned state marriage laws. Supports legal benefits for same-sex partners.
  • Social Security: Supports Bush plan to allow workers to divert some Social Security payroll taxes to private retirement accounts.
  • Taxes: Voted against 2001 and 2003 Bush tax cut laws, but later voted in favor of extending tax cuts through 2010.
  • Advisers:
  • Rick Davis, Campaign manager, Served as campaign manager for McCain's 2000 presidential run.
  • Phil Gramm, Campaign co-chairman, U.S. representative and senator from Texas from 1978 to 2003.
  • Tom Loeffler, Campaign co-chairman, Lobbyist, former U.S. representative from Texas and Reagan administration official, national finance co-chair for Bush's 2000 campaign.
  • Funds Raised (FEC):
  • TOTAL as of 12/31/2007
  • Raised:  $42,094,077
  • Spent:  $39,145,649
  • Cash-on-Hand:  $2,948,427


  • Candidate Notes on Mitt Romney

    (CNNPolitics.com)
  • Bio:
  • Filed a statement of candidacy with the FEC on January 3, 2007
  • Current job: Term as Massachusetts governor ended in January 2007
  • Birth date: March 12, 1947; Detroit, Michigan
  • Family: Married Ann Davies (1969-present); five children
  • Religion: Mormon
  • Education: Brigham Young University, B.A., 1971; Harvard University, M.B.A., J.D., 1975
  • Campaign Web site: www.mittromney.com
  • Career:
  • 1978-1984: Vice president at management consulting firm Bain & Company Inc.
  • 1984: Founded Bain Capital, a venture capital and investment company.
  • 1994: Ran unsuccessfully as the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate against incumbent Ted Kennedy.
  • 2002: With the 2002 Winter Olympics mired in controversy, he took over as president and CEO of the Salt Lake Organizing Committee.
  • 2002: Elected governor of Massachusetts. He did not seek a second term in 2006.
  • Further info:
  • His father, George Romney, was a three-term governor of Michigan and made an unsuccessful run for the GOP presidential nomination in 1968.
  • Romney is the author of "Turnaround: Crisis, Leadership, and the Olympic Games" (2004).
  • Issue positions:
  • Abortion: Opposes abortion rights except in cases of rape, incest and to protect the life of the mother. Supported abortion rights as a 1994 Senate candidate.
  • Immigration: Opposes Bush-backed guest worker plan, saying it goes too far in expanding future immigration levels. Calls for a better system for employers to verify legal status of workers. Opposes allowing illegal immigrants to gain legal status apart from existing procedures available to all non-citizens. Opposes in-state tuition breaks for illegal immigrants. As governor, authorized use of state police for immigration enforcement.
  • Iraq: Supported Bush veto of Iraq war spending bill that would have withdrawn most U.S. troops by March 2008 at the latest. Opposes troop withdrawal. Supported the president's plan for additional troops in Iraq.
  • Same-sex marriage: Opposes same-sex marriage. Opposes civil unions, though had supported a Vermont-style civil unions law for Massachusetts.
  • Social Security: Has suggested creating an independent panel to formulate a plan to reform Social Security.
  • Taxes: Supports Bush tax cuts.
  • Advisers:
  • Beth Myers, campaign manager, Served as Romney's gubernatorial chief of staff.
  • Carl Forti, deputy campaign manager/political director, A former communications director at the National Republican Congressional Committee.
  • Matt Rhoades, communications director, A former research director at the Republican National Committee.
  • Alex Castellanos, senior advisor, Has worked for several GOP presidential campaigns including that of President Bush; principal in the Alexandria, Va. Firm National Media Inc.
  • Kevin Madden, national press secretary, A former spokesman for House majority leaders John Boehner, R-Ohio, and Tom DeLay, R-Texas; a spokesman for President Bush's 2004 presidential campaign.
  • Alan Philp, head of "Idea Factory", Policy director for then-Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, director of anti-Democrat Colorado 527 group, executive director of the Colorado Republican Party
  • Vin Weber, policy chairman, Chair of National Endowment for Democracy and CEO of Clark & Weinstock, former U.S. representative from Minnesota
  • Sally Canfield, policy director, Policy adviser to then-House Speaker Dennis Hastert, former deputy chief of staff at Department of Homeland Security
  • Funds raised:
  • TOTAL as of 12/31/2007
  • Raised:  $90,076,402
  • Spent:  $87,644,955
  • Cash-on-Hand:  $2,431,447

  • Candidate Notes on Mike Huckabee

    (CNNPolitics.com)
  • Potential vulnerabilities for Huckabee:
  • Adam Nossiter and David Barstow, "Charming and Aloof, Huckabee Changed State" NY Times, 22 Dec. 2007
  • Gov. Huckabee took numerous gifts and attacked any critics
  • Gov. Huckabee commuted sentences of numerous convicts, gave few reasons, and was angry at critics. He appeared gullible to stories of redemption and conversion.
  • Gov. Huckabee allied with democrats to close numerous redundant schools in rural areas, antagonizing small towns with football team identities.
  • Bio:
  • Career
  • Further info:
  • Huckabee is the author of several books, including "From Hope to Higher Ground: 12 STOPS to Restoring America's Greatness" (2007), "Quit Digging Your Grave With A Knife And Fork" (2005) and "Living Beyond Your Lifetime" (2000).
  • In 2003, Huckabee was diagnosed with Type 2 diabetes and lost more than 100 pounds over the next year.
  • Issue Positions:
  • Abortion: Opposes abortion rights.
  • Immigration: Supports Bush-backed immigration plan that provides a path to citizenship for some illegal immigrants. Believes some Republican plans to deport illegal immigrants are "unworkable."
  • Iraq: Has offered qualified support for Bush Iraq policy, saying the president has access to military and diplomatic information that is not publicly available. Opposes congressional resolutions that express opposition to the president's plan to increase the number of American troops in Iraq. Opposes proposals to cut funding for the war.
  • Same-sex marriage: Opposes same-sex marriage.
  • Social Security: Supports Bush plan allowing workers to divert some Social Security payroll taxes into private retirement accounts.
  • Taxes: Supports a "FairTax" plan.
  • Advisers:
  • John "Chip" Saltsman, campaign manager, Senior political advisor for former Sen. Bill Frist's VOLPAC, chairman of the Tennessee Republican Party.
  • Kirsten A. Fedewa, communications consultant, Communications director and press secretary to the National Republican Governors Association, vice press secretary for the National Republican Congressional Committee, owns communications/strategy firm.
  • Alice Stewart, press secretary, Huckabee's gubernatorial press secretary, weekend anchor and reporter for KARK-TV in Little Rock, worked at several television stations in the South.
  • J. French Hill, finance chairman, Chairman and CEO of Delta Trust & Banking Corp. and a director of Delta Trust & Bank. Served as a special assistant to President George H.W. Bush for economic policy.
  • Eric Woolson, Iowa consultant, President and CEO of the media and government relations firm The Concept Works, communications director on then-Gov. George W. Bush's Iowa caucus campaign, communications director for Gov. Terry Branstad.
  • Dick Dresner, political consultant, Principle in the GOP consulting firm Dresner, Wickers & Associates, clients include former California Gov. Pete Wilson, Vermont Sen. Jim Jeffords, Minn. Sen. Norm Coleman, Nebraska Gov. Mike Johanns as well as Russian President Boris Yelstin, New York Democratic Sen. Daniel Patrick Moynihan and then-Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton.
  • Gov. Mike Rounds, chairman of the National Steering Committee, South Dakota's governor since 2003
  • Funds raised:
  • TOTAL as of 12/31/2007
  • Raised:  $8,990,477
  • Spent:  $7,107,364
  • Cash-on-Hand:  $1,896,445



  • Candidate Notes on Barack Obama

    (CNNPolitics.com)
  • Obama's strength is his rhetoric:
  • Famous keynote speech at 2004 democratic convention
  • Barack Obama videos on YouTube
  • Potential vulnerabilities for Obama therefore lie in the details that undercut the dream:
  • Janny Scott, "Obama’s Account of New York Years Often Differs From What Others Say", NY Times, 30 Oct. '07
  • Obama's memoir leaves out much of his New York experience, omits people around him [strange in a future politician] and gives a different perspective about his work than colleagues recall -- widespread poetic license is used in his memoir.
  • Dan Armstrong, who worked with Mr. Obama at Business International Corporation in New York in 1984, blog corrects Obama's memoir of work in NY city, although supportive (search for Obama).  "But when Barack Obama invents facts in a book ranked No. 8 on the NY Times nonfiction list, it not only fails to be noticed but it helps elevate him into the national political pantheon."  The company was an informal business publisher, not a formal consultancy.
  • His aloofness as a young man is echoed by his keeping at arms length the press on the campaign bus.
  • Note on his voting "present" in Illinois legislature on anti abortion measures, equivalent to "No".  From PolitiFact.org
  • Obama's strength is his rhetoric:
  • Famous keynote speech at 2004 democratic convention
  • Bio:
  • Current job: U.S. senator from Illinois
  • Birth date: August 4, 1961; Honolulu, Hawaii
  • Family: Married Michelle Robinson (1992-present); Children: Natasha (2001) and Malia Ann (1999)
  • Religion: Christian; attends Trinity United Church of Christ in Chicago
  • Education: Columbia University, B.A., 1983; Harvard University, J.D., 1991
  • Campaign Web site: www.barackobama.com
  • Career:
  • Further info:
  • 1990s: Practiced civil rights law and taught constitutional law at the University of Chicago Law School.
  • 1997-2005: Illinois state senator, representing the 13th District.
  • 2000: Ran for a U.S. House seat but lost primary to former Black Panther Bobby Rush.
  • July 27, 2004: Delivered keynote address at the Democratic National Convention.
  • November 2004: Won the U.S. Senate seat in Illinois, defeating Alan Keyes. It was the first time in history a Senate general election race was between two African-American candidates.
  • He is author of "Dreams From My Father: A Story of Race and Inheritance" (1995); "The Audacity of Hope: Thoughts on Reclaiming the American Dream" (2006) and "It Takes a Nation: How Strangers Became Family in the Wake of Hurricane Katrina" (2006).
  • Obama won a Grammy Award in 2006 for best spoken album for his reading of "Dreams From My Father." In his 1995 autobiography, Obama confessed to experimenting with marijuana and cocaine as a teenager.
  • In 2006, he toured five African countries, including a visit to Nyangoma-Kogelo, Kenya, his late father's hometown.
  • He was the first African American to be president of the Harvard Law Review.
  • Issue Positions:
  • Abortion: Supports abortion rights.
  • Immigration: Supported Bush-backed immigration reform legislation, which would have increased funding and improved border security technology, improved enforcement of existing laws, and provided a legal path to citizenship for some illegal immigrants. Voted to authorize construction of a 700-mile fence along the U.S.-Mexican border.
  • Iraq: Opposed use of military force in Iraq. Voted for war spending bill that would have withdrawn most U.S. troops by March 2008. Supports phased redeployment of U.S. troops. Opposed Bush's plan to send additional troops to Iraq. Had once called for troop withdrawal to begin by the end of 2006.
  • Same-sex marriage: Opposes same-sex marriage, but also opposes a constitutional ban. Supports civil unions.
  • Social Security: Opposes Bush plan allowing workers to divert some Social Security payroll taxes into private retirement accounts.
  • Taxes: Opposed extending 2003 Bush tax cut law through 2010. Supports eliminating marriage penalty and extending child tax credit. Supports scaling back capital gains and dividends tax cuts and re-examining tax benefits for the top one percent of earners.
  • Advisers:
  • David Axelrod, Senior strategist, A former Chicago Tribune political reporter who advised Edwards during his 2004 presidential bid.
  • David Plouffe, Campaign manager, Former executive director of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and senior aide to House Minority Leader Richard Gephardt.
  • Pete Rousee, Chief of staff, Former chief of staff to Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle
  • Julianna Smoot, Finance director, A former finance director for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, raised more than $25 million in the first fundraising quarter of 2007.
  • Jim Margolis, Senior advisor, A media strategist with close ties to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.
  • Steve Hildebrand, Campaign adviser and strategist, An "early state" expert who served as Iowa director of Vice President Al Gore's presidential run
  • Robert Gibbs, Communications director, A former communications director at the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee
  • Betsy Myers, Chief operating officer, Clinton administration official, sister of former Clinton press secretary Dee Dee Myers
  • Funds raised (FEC)
  • TOTAL as of 09/30/2007 (more out of date than the other reports)
  • Raised:  $80,256,427
  • Spent:  $44,169,236
  • Cash-on-Hand:  $36,087,191


  • Candidate Notes on Hillary Clinton

    (CNNPolitics.com)
  • Bio:
  • Career:
  • Further info:
  • Issue Positions:
  • Abortion: Supports abortion rights.
  • Immigration: Supported Bush-backed immigration reform legislation, which would have increased funding and improved border security technology, improved enforcement of existing laws, and provided a legal path to citizenship for some illegal immigrants. Voted to authorize construction of a 700-mile fence along the U.S.-Mexican border.
  • Iraq: Voted for use of military force in Iraq, but now says she would have voted differently "if we knew then what we know now." Supports de-authorizing the war. Voted for war spending bill that would have withdrawn most U.S. troops by March 2008. Opposed Bush plan to increase the number of American troops in Iraq. Supports a phased redeployment and a cap on the number of American troops in Iraq.
  • Same-sex marriage: Opposes same-sex marriage but supports civil unions. Says states should ultimately decide the issue. Opposes a constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage.
  • Social Security: Opposes Bush plan allowing workers to divert some Social Security payroll taxes into private retirement accounts.
  • Taxes: Opposed 2001 and 2003 Bush tax cuts. Opposed extending tax cuts through 2010.
  • Advisers:
  • Patti Solis Doyle, Campaign manager, An advisor for Clinton who started working for the senator when she was the first lady of Arkansas
  • Mark Penn, Pollster, with additional strategic duties.
  • Terry McAuliffe, Campaign chair, A longtime Clinton confidante and former Democratic National Committee chair
  • Howard Wolfson, Communications director, A former executive director of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and partner in a Washington public relations firm.
  • Mandy Grunwald, Media consultant, A political aide long associated with the senator and President Clinton
  • Jonathan Mantz, Finance director, A former chief fundraiser for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.
  • Ann Lewis, Senior adviser, women's outreach, Communications director for Sen. Clinton's PAC, counselor to President Clinton, chair of DNC's Women's Vote Center, Planned Parenthood executive
  • Peter Daou, Internet director, Edited "Daou Report" on Salon.com, online communication adviser to Sen. Kerry's 2004 presidential campaign
  • Funds raised (FEC)
  • TOTAL as of 12/31/2007
  • Raised:  $118,301,659
  • Spent:  $80,353,785
  • Cash-on-Hand:  $37,947,874


  • Reliable Sources, Howard Kurtz, CNN, 6 Jan. '08

  • Differential coverage of candidates?
  • Candidates' Debate last night
  • Top of Page

  • NBC Meet the Press, 6 Jan. '08: John McCain

  • Questioned by Tim Russert, John McCain is patient and reasonable in explanations.
  • M: Nation has lost confidence in government in part because of Bush actions -- and Sec. Rumsfeld, who should have resigned earlier.
  • McCain did oppose tax cuts -- because without spending cuts, unlike in Reagan years.
  • Illegal immigration?
  • No amnesty, but 2M here, those who committed crimes must be deported.
  • Cannot be rewarded for illegal behavior, must secure borders first.
  • Deportation selective -- may have grandchildren locally, must be humane and compassionate.
  • Temp. worker program to fill jobs -- mass deportation would hurt economy.
  • Is there animosity toward Romney? No, only about his negative advertising. Would support him in general election.
  • OBL?  Would not have pased up opportunity to get him at Tora Bora, and I will get him.
  • OBL is instructing recruits in terrorism, a continuing threat, not merely holed up somewhere.
  • I have relationship with Musharraf, would not attack OBL at expense of Musharraf.
  • Longterm force in Iraq?
  • Yes, so long as none being killed or wounded (examples of South Korea, Kuwait, Saudi), but depends on relations with local governments.
  • Permanent bases OK, if local conditions fit.  Depends on nat sec threat.  AQ is on the run and surge has succeeded.
  • Problem with Iraq was not going in, it was mishandling afterwards.  We had causes (listed) of war, other than WMD.  Lawlessness, disorder and Abu Ghraib scandal helped recruit for AQ.
  • TV ad shows terrorism from evening news, suggests Romney lacks foreign policy experience, McCain does.
  • Presidents who were Governors (RWR, JEC) without foreign experience?  RWR did have some experience abroad.
  • Declined to say would drop out if did not win NH.
  • Discussion session followed with strategists from both parties, Murphy (R) and MacMahon (D).
  • Change exchange in last night's debate, Edwards provoked Clinton into angry and aggressive response but she did better when relaxed in second part of debate.
  • Possibly a mistake to Clinton campaign in IA, but would have had to decide some time ago.
  • In any other year, turning out 72K voters in IA for Hillary would have been hugely successful.
  • Meet the Press was turned down by several candidates this week.
  • Several states this week, followed by Super Tuesday.  Cannot win 5 Feb. without early wins to raise good buzz and money.
  • Obama will start to win black vote, which is currently loyal to Clinton.
  • NH poll, recently:
  • 32 McCain, 25 Romney, 12 Huckabee -- H has no bounce from IA.
  • Independents are heavily for McCain, important in NH -- like Obama among democrats.
  • NH gives high negatives to Huckabee -- NH doesn't like southerners with belt buckles.
  • Michigan coming up, native state for Romney.
  • Last night's ABC debate:
  • McCain called Romney candidate of change -- R has changed all positions.  Others do not like Romney, do not see him as authentic.  They ganged up on him in debate.  He has not had to suck up to donors as they have.
  • Huckabee embraced Obama, unlike other Republicans -- H has great ear for voterspeak.
  • Obama and McCain will be nominees, say both consultants.
  • Top of Page

  • New Hampshire debate, 5 Jan. '08, ABC News, St. Anselm College (paraphrased).

  • Summary of impressions
  • Gibson drew out candidates well, giving them seated format with chances to debate each other, with limited interventions by moderator.  Second part was questioning by Gibson and a local TV reporter, Scott Spradling.
  • Republicans: McCain clearly attacked Romney for having changed his positions during campaign.
  • Democrats: Edwards attacked Clinton on issue of agent of change -- positioned himself with Obama rather than against him.
  • Neither Giuliani nor Clinton established themselves as dominant executives in the debates.
  • ABC partnered with Facebook for the debate, though that part was a spurious online polling and commenting page, with low quality discussion.
  • Top of Page
  • Republicans, prompted by Charlie Gibson
  • Top of Page
  • Democrats Debate, prompted by Charlie Gibson
  • Nuclear terrorism not much discussed this year, video by Brian Ross. Would Obama go into Pakistan and go after them?
  • O: would cooperate with government of Pakistan, encourage democracy -- but if they would not do so and we had actionable intelligence, we should strike.  Worked by Sen. Lugar on foreign relations in Senate. Rebuild nuclear nonproliferation policy.
  • O: would strike if actionable intelligence, even in Pakistan.
  • Edwards: presently ad hoc policy, nation by nation, but this does not work in long term.
  • Richardson: use diplomacy first, avoid inflaming muslim world, policy of principles and realism. We have leverage to get Musharraf to step aside for a caretaker government.
  • Clinton: tried years ago to take out OBL with missiles, based on oactionable intelligence.  Failed.  We lacked enough troops to capture OBL in mountains.  When missiles launched, Pakistani government has to know because of paranoia there about india.
  • Richardson: we are paying for support of Shah in past in Iran.  Must be on side of people not dictator, have opportunity to get Musharraf to step aside.  $11 Bn assistance he has not used against terrorism -- has diverted.
  • O: flaw in Bush program was going after those who did not attack US -- iraq a distraction.
  • actions after any nuclear terrorist attack?
  • E: would ahve to strike back
  • O: would ahve to retaliate against a nuclear attack, but need to rebuild NPT after Bush administration.
  • C: there would be no safe havens, every state that harbors terrorists must know we would retaliate.
  • R: as Sec of Energy, securing nuclear stockpiles in USSR was part of job.  Now has been eroded, and port security is weak.  ALso environmental challenges (listed) but Bush believes in unilateralism and preemption.
  • Domestic policy and spending, entitlements, Betsy Stark on video, Social Security by 20xx will start paying out net, Medicare earlier, by 2017.   How, based on recent statements by C, does O not have experience for change?
  • C: O has proposed different plans on health care, we all need scrutiny.
  • O: entirely consistent, would design system from scratch, our system costs twice as much per capita as any other nation.  Problem is not people avoiding health care, they can't afford it.  Need to raise payroll tax ceiling so rich pay it also.
  • C: you have changed positions over 3 yrs, voted for Patriot Act after saying against it.  Charges against Edward and myself apply to you also.
  • O: mandate health care for children because they have no choice -- but adults do.  We have legitimate differences.
  • E: Both O and I are for change, and we came top in IA.  Forces of status quo always attack those who rep. change.  We have differences, but now we are attacked by Sen. C. when she is no longer ahead.
  • H: real change is children in NH having health care from my plan. 35 years of change.  Need to deliver change. [Forceful]
  • R: I have been in hostage negotiations that have been more civil [laughter.]  I love change, but examine record.
  • E: fight for middle class.  Corps can be good or bad.  Need to take on entrenched special interests.
  • O: government transparent and accountable, greatest reforms since Watergate.
  • Surge you all opposed has signs of working -- video by Terry McCarthy, on decline of US and local deaths in last few months.  Political progress frustratingly slow.  Has surge worked?
  • C: still skeptical because purpose of surge was to give time for political solution but Iraqis are not doing what they need and we should bring the troops home.  Will start withdrawal within 60 days.
  • R: 3900 Americans lost lives, 60,000 wounded including mentally.  No reconciliation or oil revenue sharing. Zero.  Maliki government training, end to terrorist activities, No.  Until we end war, cannot talk about issues at home.  Bring all troops home within a year.  [Impassioned]
  • O: it was a mistake to go in from the start, cost over $1 Tn, lost troops, not safer as a consequence, surge did improve security.
  • E: would listen to uniformed military directly, but Brit withdrawal led to reduction of violence.  No political progress made under US security.  In first year, will pull out 40-50K troops, then rest over 9 months.  Will listen to military on tactics.  Must end occupation.
  • R: bring troops back within a year.  Sick of flying flags at half staff on a death, as Gov.  Health care, schools, children.
  • C: intensive dipomatic efforts, reverse Bush policy, must deal with Iraqis who helped us, eg translators.   Last spring, mandated Bush administration tell us about planning for end of war, they are not and we must.
  • [Break before new format, questioning session.]
  • Scott Spradling, experience vs change, why do people like Obama more?
  • C: That hurts my feelings [laughter, great comic timing].  Bush was president people felt they would enjoy a beer with, and not in power what he seemed.  35 yrs of change.  Like and respect E and O -- but experienced.
  • O: did not focus on Repubs attacks, was switching between them and football game (Redskins lost).  Set up searchable database of spending to embarrass people who support bridge to nowhere.  Can draw independents into coalition.
  • R: I'm only one who has negotiated with NK and Saddam, has highest nat sec clearance.
  • Scott Spradling: remember you came to Boston as Energy Sec., but now same debate over energy -- failure?
  • R: we need (list of energy improvements, fuel efficiency, mass transit) and list of attempted achievements in past.
  • Prior executive experience, relative youth a disadvantage?
  • E: used to fighting irresponsible corporations, deeply personal fight for middle class.
  • Scott Spradling: 6 yrs in Senate, what accomplished?
  • E: patient's bill of rights was first act of new Dem majority in Senate. Natalie Sarkesian denied medical insurance payout till died.  Need a president who will take these people on.  Did so with McCain, proud of enactment.
  • O: agree, and prohibited lobbyists from taking Reps to meals, or gifts.  Bundling money is disclosable.
  • C: reality break.  Patient's bill did get through Senate but not House and Bush killed it.  Lobbyist is chair of Obama's NH campaign.  Energy bill 2005 was larded with give aways I voted against it & Obama voted for it.  Words are not actions, even beautifully presented, must translate talk and feelings into reality.
  • C: special ed act years ago, worked for health care for kids in WH.
  • C: President Clinton changed deficit and took on special interests.  [impassioned again]
  • E: no corp lobbyists working for me in WH.  Teddy Rvt took on monopolies, busted trusts.
  • O: Bill Clinton did take on interests but we have not built in majority coalition.  Sometimes there is a moment for inspiring change [impassioned].
  • R: Washington bickering is frustrating.  As Governor, I feel the same way.  Gave college for one year of national service.
  • E: a fight for the American people against special interests.
  • None of you, unlike Dodd and Gore, has favored a carbon tax.  Is it a bad idea?
  • R: need mandate to reduce emissions by a certain target, cap and trade system.  Carbon tax is passed on to consumers.
  • O: have to combine it with 100% option, to charge polluter for every emission.  Can invest proceeds in environment.
  • C: ...
  • Talking about letting Bush tax cuts lapse? 2 Professors here would make $200K threshold.
  • C: no only on the rich, not only the middle class.
  • O: change
  • Scott Spradling: health insurance and businesses, economy
  • R: need line item veto, end to corp welfare, energy incentives, education.
  • What said in campaign you would like to take back?
  • C: one or two moments I would have taken back, but Dem stands in contrast to Repubs, who are not talking about issues that will really face the next president.
  • R: Whizzer White not a good SC hero.
  • E: teasing Hillary about jacket.
  • O: many things but we have more in common, differences with Repubs.
  • Top of Page



  • First presidential debate, 26 Sep. '08
    Paraphrasing, unedited notes.

    financial crisis?

    Obama: worst financial crisis since Great depression | move swiftly and wisely | taxpayers must have chance of getting money back | help homeowners | no pay for failed executives.  Tied to failures of Bush.
    McCain: greatest fiscal crisis in our time | bipartisan effort | should give loans to businesses rather than Gov taking over loans.  Only the end of the beginning | end dependence on foreign oil.
    O: have not seen plan yet, but optimistic | 2 yrs ago I warned about subprime lending mess.  Last yr I wrote to Sec of Treasury about problem.  How have shredded so many regulations, not set up 21st C regulation.
    M: I also warned about FannyMae and FreddyMac and CEO greed.  Ike wrote out two letters before D-Day -- one of resignation in case of failure.  We need accountability.  Problem is excess, greed not accounted for.
    Lehrer urges cands to argue to each other directly.
    M: earmarking is a gateway drug, Reps in prison for corruption.  I will veto earmarks.  Obama has got those projects.
    O: he is right about excesses but I suspended earmarks until system cleaned up.  But a few million.  M urges $300 Bn in tax cuts -- really important. Beter than policies of Pres. Bush which M is following.
    M: Obama had $932 m in earmarks in 3 yrs in Senate and only suspended after he ran for President.  I have had a career against earmarks.  O also proposes new spending.
    O (cutting in) I will close corp loopholes, offer health care. I will go line by line to eliminate earmarks -- but your tax policies help those doing well.
    M: business taxes too high here compared to Ireland, 35%.  Want every family to have a tax credit for every dependent.
    O: 95% of you will get tax cut, below $250K income.  Business tax rates are high but so many loopholes, some written by M -- effectively low taxes. M wants to tax your health benefits -- not a good deal.
    M: walk the walk /talk the talk.  I voted against energy bill giveaways, O voted for it.  O has shifted -- has voted to increase taxes on people earning lower incomes.
    Priorities?
    O: energy independence, alternative energy, health care insurance, caussing bankruptcies, must compete in education, rebuild infrastructure.
    M cut spending, O has most liberal spending record in Senate.  Eliminate ethanol subsidies.  Do away with cost-plus contracts at Defense.  I save by fighting contract of Boeing -- people ended up in federal prison.
    No major changes from financial bailout?
    O invest in energy, but we do need cuts. Wildly Liberal -- just oppoisng Bush policies.
    M spending freeze except on defense.
    O increase early ed -- but cut Iraq war, Iraq Gov has money.
    M must have offshore drilling and nuclear power.  45 new nuclear power plants by 2030.
    How adjust governance for financial crisis?
    M must cut spending, and restrain.  We owe China $500 Bn.
    O it is your president, you agree with 90% of the time.  You voted for almost all of his budgets.
    M I have not been elected Miss Congeniality in US Senate I have opposed President on Gitmo, way war was conducted. Maverick.
    Lessons of Iraq?
    M cannot have failed strategy. War was badly mishandled but I went 2003 and called for fundamental change of strategy -- this has succeeded we are winning, will come home with victory and honor.  We will see a stable ally in region.  Consequences of defeat will be increasing Iranian influence, and US might have to come back.  Thanks to Gen Petraeus.
    O fundamental difference.  Whether we should have gone in in  the first place.  I opposed when it was risky to do so.  Haad not finished job in Afghan, put AQ to rest.  $600 B spendt, 4000 lives, 30,000 owunded, AQ now resurgent, we took eye of the ball.  Iraq has $79 B surplus.  We must use mil. wisely.
    M next pres will not decided whether we went in -- but what we do next.  O says would still have opposed the surge -- chairs ctee oversees NATO, has never requested meeting with Petraeus.
    O these issues do not go thru my subctee -- but thru Biden's SEn FR ctee.  War started in 2003 nto in 2007.  On quick & easy, WMD, You were wrong.
    M O does not ustd diff btwe tactic and strategy.  Reenlistment mtg, troops said let us win, they are winning.  Sen O refuses to ack we are winning.  strategy of clearing and holding, peace and prosperity.  Sen promised not to cut off funds to troops, but incredibly so.
    O M said we have been successful in Afghan, so end war resonsibly in phases but in 16 mos should relieve troops and families and bolster Afghan.
    M Adm Mullen and Gen Pet both said withdrawal dangerosu.  Snatching defeat from jaws of victory.
    Afghan?
    O: TB emboldened, need 2-3 additional brigades -- in Iraq four times as many troops but nobody in 9/11.  Poppy crop a problem.  With $10B to Paki, they have not removed AQ.
    M first will not repeat mistalke of leaving region after first Afghan war.  Not prepared to cut off aid to Paki so not prepared to threaten.  Must have support of people.  Must not announce things (over border).  I have been to Waziristan, tough land.  O does not ustd strategy in these areas.  They have intermarried with Aq there.  20,000 additnoal troops -- but strategy that will succeed.  I will not publicly state that atacks -- but M has sung about bonmb iran, talked of threat to NK.  We alienate Pak pop by supporting dictator, spend $10B but they weren't going after TB.
    M: Paki was a failed state before Musharraf.  I opposed marines in Lebanon.  I supported Bosnia, right thing to do.  I supported Kosovo because ehtnic cleansing.  I opposed turning Somalia into peace making force.  Involved in nat sec issues.  Wear bracelet for a son killed in Baghdad. Military will recover from failure.
    O wear bracelet too (hestitted over name).  We took eye off Afghan and folks who perpetrated 9/11.  Take AQ seriously.
    M might think O would have gone to Afghan.  I have travelled to these places.  I know our sec needs.  Need strategy in Afghan.  But Pet predicts failure in Iraq if we follow O's strategy.
    Iran?
    M propose dleagues of dems, sharing common values, could impose snactions on Iranians.  They have lousy gov and econ despite oil revenue.  With Fr, Br, Ger can affect Iranian behavior.  iran nuclear weapons threat to world.  They are arming and training groups in Iraq.  Obama said labelling Rev Guard sponsors of terror would be provocative.
    O: REv Guard terrorist but measure I opposed was to braoden measures in Iraq.  Iran has continued to dev centrifuges.  Nuclear Iraq canot tolerate.  Ra and China not dems.  NOt talking to people to punish them has not worked.
    M: talk to Admadinejad who espouses wiping out state of Israel?  Legitimizes him -- Reagan and Nixon talked only after pre-conditions, prior work.
    O: Kiss just said we should meet with Iran without pre-conditions -- not for tea but for negotiations.  I awas called naif when I raised talks with Iran -- but Bush has recently sent a diplomat.  NK we cut off talks, axis of evil -- they quadrupled nuclear capactiy, tested nuckes, pulled out of NPT.  M declined talk wit Spain -- a NATO ally.
    M: Kiss only said lower level meetings.  O doesn't ustd -- Admad has called Israel a stinking corpse.  NK broken every agreement.  SK population 3" taller than NK.
    O: Bush.
    M only parsing words when he says preparation not pre-conditions.
    Russia?
    O: actions in GA unacceptable.  Rns have to remove selves. Reaffirm nations of E. Europe (listed).  GA & Ukraine free to join NATO. Deal with Russia not on staring into eyes or soul but with sharp response.
    M: O's first st was both sides should show restraint.  Doesn't ustd -- Ra is a KGB.  I looked into Putin's eyes and saw K-G-B.  No longer dem.  That was about pipeline -- energy.  Flew to Tblisi, showed solidariety.  US will supoprt GA and Uk in NATO by natural process.  I went to South Ossetia, saw poster of Putin-our president.  We want to work with Rns but expect them to behave, respect norms and borders.
    O: must anticipate these problems -- I warned admin about Rn peacekeepers in GA -- but was not done.  Energy: Ra resurgent and putin powerful because of petrodollars.  Cannot drill our way out of problem.  Need energy plan.  26 yrs M voted 23 times against alt energy.
    M: O is for nuclear but against reprocessing and storage.  I suporting Nunn Lugar legis to take
    Chance of another 9/11?
    M; much less now, safer if not safe.  I have worked across the aisle.  Got commission, opposed by this administration.  More than 40 recommendations, got most written into law.  Bipartisan, reaching across the aisle.  Go to do better on human intell, better interrogations, no torture, work closely with alies, I know tham. America is safer today -- and largest reorg of Gov since DOD.  Still long way to go.
    O: safer in some way, airport security, securing targets -- but harden chemical sites, transits, ports, biggest threat is not a missle it is a suitcase.  Need missile defense for Iran and NK -- but only spending millions on nuclear defense.  Root cause is AFghan not Iraq.  Less respected now, must restore shining beacon on a hill.
    M: O still doesn't ustd consequences of defeat in Iraq.  Success is fragile we cannot withdraw as O wants.
    O: Cost of Iraq, with economy declining cannot maintain war.
    9:30 pm (90 minutes up)
    M: I do not believe O has exp, incl. reaction to GA, seen stubbornness before this admin in falure to ack surge.  I know vets and will take care of them.  Reform, prosperity and peace.  I do not need, on the job training.
    O: My father in Kenya wrote letters to come to the US -- valued country in world.
    M: resolve POW MIA issues with VN.  I know how to heal wounds of war, deal with adversaries.
    END.
    PBS commentators: M's phrase was Sen. Obama doesn't ustd -- but should have looked at O.  M better at leadership issues -- O better in exchanges.  O doesn't show emotion -- M managed to limit his emotion.  Actually debated issues like K school -- not just sound bites. O still professorial.  No standout moments.  O attacked unpop presi and party and econ but M was on offensive most of time -- it tends ot work (JFK 1960, RWR 1980).
    Top of Page


    Vice Presidential debate 2 Oct. 2008
    paraphrasing, unedited notes
    Gwen Ifill moderator, Sen. Joe Biden and Gov. Sarah Palin



    90 secs each for question, 2 mins each for responses.  No applause.
    First exchange rather quiet, Biden subdued.
    Palin: Obama has voted along party lines -- McCain bipartisan.  Americans craving something new
    Mortgage crisis
    [animation and varied intonation] McCain reformer of mortgage market.  You betcha; darned right; deception and greed in mortgage lending, corruption.  Joe Six Pack and Hockey moms band together, never get exploited again.  Learn a heck of a lot of good lessons.
    Biden: "John" deregulated, Republican reform.  Anecdote of guy who can't fill tank.
    Palin: darned right, 94 times Obama voted for tax increases or against reductions.  Tax relief needed.  Obama voted to raise taxes on average American families.
    Biden untrue, McCain voted same way.  Gov. did not answer the question on deregulation.
    Palin will not not answer the way you want but talk directly to the American people.
    Ifill, time is up.
    Tax proposals
    Biden: fairness to middle class,
    Palin: patriotic is not paying taxes it is telling government to get out of the way.  Trillion dollars in new spending.  Obama mandates health care and federal government plan.  McCain $5,000 credit.
    Biden: not redistribution but fairness.  M's health care plan taxes your employer's plan, straight to health care.  Ultimate bridge to nowhere.
    Energy
    Palin: M does not tell one thing to one group and one to another.  Energy plan -- In great state o fAK I had to take on oil companies, break up monopoly, people come first.  Do what is right for America, rscue lan with massive oversight.
    Biden: John adding large tax cut for Mobil -- Gov. did give back money to folks but M does not support windfall profits tax.  Hope Gov. can persuade McCain.  Give her credit for it in AK.
    P: thanks M for at least warning people, putting politics aside.
    Mortgage holders in bankruptcy reform
    B we won't get into complications -- but Obama warned.  M said surprised.  Should let bankruptcy courts adjust not justs payments but also principal you owe.  I ustd M does not support, nor Bush administration.
    Climate change
    P refused to answer next question and talked about energy.
    P unclear answer on effect of man, do not want to argue about causes but how we positively impact, clean up planet, was first Gov. to form climate change sub-cabinet.
    B clearly manmade.  Fundamental difference between tickets.  Look at facts.  M has voted 20 times agaisnt funding alternative energy sources.  O believes in clean coal and safe nuclear.  China building dirty coal plants every week.  M believes only answer is drill, drill -- but it will take ten years for effect.
    P: In AK, We have clean, green natural gas.
    Ifill prompted to answer on cap carbon emissions.
    Biden: The Gov. and John.
    Same sex couple's rights:
    B only fair for couples to have visitation rights in hospitals.  Same as in AK.
    P do not support spread.  But am tolerant, diverse family and friends some do not agree with me.  None would propose loss of rights. DO not support gay marriage.
    B similar.
    Plan in war
    P surge pushed by great American hero Petraeus and M.  Obama against and I respected B for opposing Obama's oposition to that.  Have got to win in Iraq, and now down to pre-surge numbers.
    B only one left out is John.  Timeline to shift respo to Iraqis, they have surplus funds.  Fundamental difference: we will end this war.
    P: White flag of surrender.  O still cannot admit surge works.  YOu also said Obama worng to cut off funding.  Respect for sons serving.
    B: John also voted against the funding amendment because fo timeline.  I said we would   God love him but he has been dead wrong.
    Iran and Pakistan -- greater threat.
    B both threats, but Pak already has nuclear weapons.  Iran getting them would be destabilizing.  Both would be game changers.  Threat in hills of Pakistan -- needs stable gov, needs schools to compete with 7,000 madrassas on border.
    P nuclear armed Iran, Ahmad termed Israel a stinking corpse, not sane or stable, NK, Castro brothers -- O statement beyond naviete.  Should not speak without preconditions.
    Diplomacy
    P: dictators; diplomacy is hard work by serious people.
    B simply not true about Obama.  He did not say he would talk with Ahmad.  Ahmad does not control Iranian security.  5 former Secs of State advice talking.  M said we would not sit down with Spain a NATO ally.  Incredible.
    Israel
    P: Two state solution top of agenda.  Israel strongest and best ally.  WIll not allow a seoncd holocaust.  Embassy in Jerusalem.
    B: this admin abject failure.  President insisted on elections on West Bank -- and Hamas won.  We said move NATO into Lebanon but now Hesbollah in control.  Thoughtful real live diplomacy.
    P glad we agree.  Huge blunders about this administration (smiling) but for a ticket for change they are talking about past.  We will bring change.
    B: haven't heard how John's policy will be different from Bush's.  We will make significant change.
    P: can we talk about Afghan?  Policies would not be the same.  Surge in Afghan principles would be the same.  Not true we are attacking villages, we are building schools.
    B facts matter, Gwen.  Cmnding General: surge principle will not work in Afghan.  We need more troops. gov building.  We spend more money in 3 weeks in Iraq than 7 yrs in Afghan. Obama reached out to Lugar to legis on nuclear weapons.  John M opposed.
    P: McClellan did not say definitively principles would not work.
    Intervention in Bosnia, etc, Biden record
    B yes, saved lives and worked in Bosnia
    P: I'm not a Washington insider.  [Smiling] Americans craving straight talk.  You opposed this before you supported it.  Should end atrocities in part of world.
    B: when country harbors terrorists, they forfeit right to say you cannot intervene.  I held hearings and said we would not be greeted as liberators -- John M was in lockstep with Cheney.  Wrong.
    P: Tomorrow morning pundits will have proof of some of this.  M knows to learn from blunders in Iraq.  How o win a war.
    Heart beat away.
    You disagree with Obama on some issues.
    B: I would carry out Obama policies: middle class health, tax breaks, education, energy policy, foreign policy engage allies, reject Bush doctrine of preemption and regime change with cooperation.  Most important since 1932.  I agree with every major initiative.
    P: we're mavericks, disgree on ANWR, he never asked me to check opinions at the door.  Put govt on side of people.  Need reality from Wasilla main street to wash DC.  O increasing taxes.
    B: ask yourself if there is a single issue where M disagrees with Bush.  Walk in my neighborhood.
    P. Prefaced whole comment on Bush admin.  Looking to past.  Education and schools must be ramped up, teachers in family (hi to 3d grade).
    Role of VP?
    P: lame attempt at joke on both sides.  Constn more auth for VP (with Cheney) in working in Senate.  Reform and working with children with special needs.
    B: john not support education.  Barack asked me to do.  Record of.  Turned down a portfolio but will give Barack presence in meetings, constructive role in change.
    P: Founders allowed flexibility in VP, agenda cooperative with President's agenda.  Admin plkans needed for this nation.  Executive experience.
    B: VP Cheney the most dangerous in American history.  Art. I executive role, support president.  Bizarre notion invented by Cheney.
    Weakness
    P. Energy producing state.  Connection to heartland of America, son in war.  America nation of exceptionalism.
    B: 32 years of exp.  Know what it is like to be a single parent, lost wife, raised sons.  Know what it is like to nearly lose son (emotional pause).
    P change and M has taken shots from his own party.  Man to lead.  Tumultuous times.  Economy, greed in Wall St.  When both parties in charge, R & D, problems.
    B: M no maverick on important issues -- not on health, education, war -- anything that effects people.
    B: led fight against Judge Bork, his ideology counts. Changes in career.  First chair of Judiciary ctee to state openly that ideology counts in judge.
    P: as Gov. did not have to compromise btu work together in AK, birnging both sides together.
    Bipartisanship, how to change tone?
    B  respect because I respect others.
    P: walk the walk, don't just talk the talk.  Diverse family with folks of all political persuasions.  They increase taxes and spending and say no to energy independence.
    P: I enjoy speaking to American people without filter of media.  Fight for American I know what the hurts are and the joys, we are blessed, proud to be American.
    B: pleasure getting to meet you.  Need for fundamental change.  Whether can send kid to college, pay mortgage, send kids to fight.  Neighborhood, respect, women and men, could accomplish anything.  If you are knocked down, get up.  We are ready. God Bless.  May God protect our troops.

    PBS reactions:
    Brooks and Shields: Republcians wil be quite pleased, she held her own on foreign policy.
    Shields and Brooks: relentlessly colloquial with metaphors, no major mistakes on both sides.
    Highlights? Well at mentioning McCain all the time, got in mentions of energy.  Norman Rockwell and Hallmark
    P cut loose the Bush admin, blunders, P does not feel need to support Bush.
    Biden seemed coached, but when choked up over death of wife a view into his soul.
    Beschloss: Adlai and LBJ both tried to distance themselves from prior admin -- but not like this.  Lef them behind in the snow.  But White flag of surrender went beyond the norm.
    Fitzpatrick: Unlike Ferraro, palin made feminine references constantly.  Sea change in politics of gender.  P raised these as qualifying her.  Folksy populism, complex problems faced with common sense.
    Beschloss: rules helped both, shorter answers and less interaction between candidates.  P got through without damage, but Bidn gave a sense of more human, confessed human errors.

    CNN reactions:

    Rollins: P will be used on stump again, local interviews but no national, taped interviews.
    Crowley: friendly atmosphere and candidates did not attack each other, only the top of the ticket.
    King: Palin role was to reinvigorate ticket, and she succeeded.  May not shift tide of independents.  VP cand rule is first, do no harm.  Both candidates lucky no Ross Perot on ballot -- people fed up with Washington.

    Palin arrives at large, excited crowd at rally.  It seems to validate the comments that she is reinvigorating.


    CNN focus group of voters, with Soledad O'Brien
  • What resonated with men and women?
  • dialometer graph shows women approval of Biden rises as Biden talks about ending war -- but Palin's white flag of surrender caused dials to sink.
  • polling shows 64% thought Biden did better than expected -- much more than for Palin.  Surprising, but it will take three weeks for reactions to develop.
  • Top of Page



    Second Presidential Debate 7 Oct. 2008, in Town Hall Meeting format
    Sponsored by Commission.on Debates

    80 uncommitted voters, who gave question to moderator (Tom Brokaw) for selection.  One minute follow-up.
    CNN showed Dialometer lines from uncommitted men and women, Ohio voters.  These consistently were higher for Obama, especially from women, and consistently lower when attacks made, low when McCain stressed his military experience, higher when bulleted plans revealed in upbeat tone, and when optimism or patriotism expressed.



    Economy on downturn, what is fastest solution?
    O: recognizes most serious since Depression, caused by stripping away regulations and let market run wild.  Policies of Bush and McCain.  Strong oversight, taxpayers get money back, cracking down on bonuses and golden parachutes.  Demand money back from AIG executives’ junket.  Must set up road and public works projects to keep up jobs.  Washington to think about middle class.
    M: Americans angry, upset and a little fearful.  Energy independence, taxes low, not raise on anybody, stop spending spree, $500 Bn we owe to China.  Need reform package.  Must do something about home values of retirees, people no longer afford mortgages – Treasury to buy up bad mortgages and let people stay in homes.  Stabilize home values to get jobs back.  My proposal to get America working again.  [Warmer, more personal style]
    Who do you have in mind for Treasury Sec. post?
    M: not you, Tom.  Must be someone you can trust.  Warren Buffet supporter of Obama.  Meg Whitman was CEO of small Company, now eBay.  Someone must inspire trust and confidence.
    O: Buffet a good choice but key is helping middle class, not just trickle down.  For many of you, wages and incomes have flatlined.  Middle Class tax cut to 95% of Americans, working two jobs, struggling.
    Tom Brokaw: reminder of one minute discussions.
    Bailout package – how will it help people out?
    M: main street was paying heavy price.  I suspended my campaign.  [gentle one, and dialometer for men drifted down.]  Loans that people could not pay back. Two years ago said we have got to stop this.  O was second highest recipient of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac money in history.  Must buy up bad loans.   [Men rose on plan, women lower].
    O: Oliver, let me tell you what’s in it for you.  Firms may not make payroll.  Adverse effect on everybody.  Correct M’s history.  Biggest problem was deregulation.  2 years ago I said re-regulate and nothing happened.  [facing M] I never promoted Fannie Mae.  But [to audience] you’re not interested in politicians pointing fingers – but solutions [dials rise].  Plan for ordinary families [dials very high]
    Tom Brokaw: will economy get worse before it gets better?
    M: depends on what we do.  Get rid of cronyism. We Senators warned of this crisis, but O not on that letter.  American workers best in world, must give them chance.
    How can we trust either of you with our money?
    O: I  frustration, lot of blame to go around.  When Bush came to office, surplus but now deficit, and debt almost doubled.  M voted for 4/5 of Bush budgets.  I’m going to cut more than spend.  [Men sank, women still high].
    M: O has never taken on leaders of his own party.  Most liberal big spending in US Senate.  O proposes $860 Bn in new spending and voted for every new spending, nearly a billion in earmark.  Includes overhead projector on planetarium.  [Dials both low]  [quiet tone in criticism]
    Drilling offshore [dials both rise high on plan]
    Priorities health care, energy and education?  Entitlements.
    M: [no priorities mentioned] sit down across table like Reagan and Tip .  I know how to do it.  Nuclear power plants, alternative fuels, clean coal, can take on mission and overcome.  [dials rise on plan]
    O: bad for family budget and national security – Russia and Iran, countries benefit.  JFK said make it to moon.  Priority 2 is health care.  3 is education to make young people competitive in global economy.  [Dials high, esp women]  criticized bush [women fell].
    Question [unheard]?
    M: examine every agency to see what not working.  Saved billion on AF tanker.  Eliminate earmarks.  [women high] spending freeze except for defense and veterans affairs.  We’ll get to work right away.
    O: quiet criticism, missed opportunities [dials low] American people hungry for leadership [dials rise] need to everyone to think about how we use energy [dials rise] restore nuclear energy and save in our homes, incentives, fuel efficient car made in America.  Require effort from everyone, [v high dials] double peace corps – renewing America, leadership in Washington.
    Tom Brokaw: did Wall St and American Gov get drunk?
    O: starts with Washington must show we have good habits. Earmarks count for only $18 Bn of our budget.  M’s tax cuts to CEOs would be bigger, not sharing burden.  Hard to tell teacher to cut when people richer are not.  Everyone to sacrifice.  Disagree  with across the board freeze.
    M: O’s tax plans like nailing jello to wall.  Last Pres to raise taxes in recession was Hoover.  [Dials low]  O’s tax raises on small businesses.  Won’t be able to raise jobs.  [dials low on criticism].  Not in favor of tax cuts for wealthy – but leaving tax rates low.  [uplift, getting jobs again – women dials very high].
    Tom Brokaw: Obama not to respond, stick to rules.
    Reform Social security and medicare?
    O: Straight talk express lost a wheel on tax plans.  I want tax cut for 95% of Americans, less than $1/4 M, your taxes will go down.  Only a few percent of small business will not get tax cut.  [high among women, rising among men] M wants tax cut to largest corporations.  Then deal with Soc Sec and Medicare .. because stable and solvent for all.
    M I will answer question.  Social Sec not hard to solve, saw it done before by Reagan and Tip.  I’m not too popular with my own party.  Have a commission of smartest people, like Base closing commission, have an up or down vote.  Sen Obama has voted 94 times against tax cuts – never proposed Sen legislation to tax cut [dials sink when attacking]
    Greenhouse gases?
    M: we forced votes on this, though we lost, was on Navy ships with nuclear power, safe and creates jobs.  We can do it to. O opposes that.  Green technologies, battery powered cars, create millions of jobs, best innovators.  [dials rise with optimistic tone]
    O: big challenge of our times, create 5m new jobs, engine that drives us into future like computer before [dials rise] make some investments in solar, wind, geothermal, favor nuclear power as one component.  M there 26 years and voted 23 times against alt fuels.  M talks a lot about growth but we use 25% of world’s oil and cannot drill our way out.  Have to come up with alternatives, government to work with private sector to develop clean energy for others
    Tom Brokaw: way over time lights.
    M: just wave to us.
    M got to drill offshore to get price down.
    Health care coverage profitable but should it be a commodity?
    O: most frequently asked issues, breaking family budgets, small business crushing burden, moral commitment to do something [dials rise] if you have care already, keep your plan, we work with employer to reduce your premiums.  Reduce errors and cost.  If don’t have insurance, you can buy same insurance we have as senators, huge pool gives lower cost.  M would tax your employer’s plan.  [women sink on criticism] Chamber says taxing employer plans would unravel US system.
    M: Health records online, walk in clinics for efficiencies.  Fundamental difference – O for government, O will fine you as a business, parents O will fine you.  My $5,000 refundable tax credit you can take across state lines [men sink lower than women].  I might need hair transplant [joke – but women dipped]
    Tom Brokaw: health care privilege, right or responsiblity?
    M: resp, we should – but government mandates I am always nervous about.  Americans  resp.  [rising dials]  O never mentioned how much fine would be.  [dials sank]
    O: keep plan, choice of doctor, no mandate.  Small business get tax credit.  Mother had cancer without care.  Ou have to make sure child has health care.  M voted against S-CHIP. [Men dipped].  Crack down on Insurance Cos that cheat [women v high, men moderate]
    US Peacemaker?
    M nations strong militarily need strong economy as well.  America is greatest force for good in history of world [dials rise] we are peacemakers [dials v high] need judgment to know when national security at risk.  Record to stand.  O wrong on surge and on Russia and in short career does not  national security challenges [dials sink].
    O: some things I don’t  – how we invaded country that did not attack us – [dials rise] wrong judgment and costly to us.  Enormous debt of gratitude to troops but $700 Bn spent and will be well over Trillion.  $10Bn per month spent and Iraqis have surplus – need to put people back to work.  Agree greatest nation – but never a nation economy decline and maintain military superiority.  M and Bush foreign policy has not worked.
    Tom: establish Obama and McCain doctrine on use of Force where national security not at risk (Rwanda etc). Humanitarian purposes.
    O: must consider where possible, Darfur etc. … [dials high]
    M: O would have brought our troops home in defeat [dials low]  In Somalia tried to be peacemakers and had to withdraw.  I opposed Lebanon deployment, and marines were killed.  American’s most precious asset, blood, in harm’s way.  Have to say no to holocaust but not take lightly [fairly high]
    Pursue AQ into Pakistan or respect allies?
    O: difficult but made bad judgment in Iraq, distracted from AQ.  Plan to insist they go after OBL [dials rise, especially women] even if Pakistan unable, go in and kill and crush [men rise].
    M: plans and discussion [low dials], talk softly and carry a big stick. [O seems angry]
    O: I want follow up – Tom Brokaw: this is against rules – allows, O rambles in response.
    [Dials low but gradually rise.]
    M then has follow up, opposed telegraphing punches, disagreements – [dials remain low.]
    Tom: Afghan senior Brit leaders say we are failing in Afghan, need acceptable dictator?
    O must w/draw gradually but need government responsive to Afghans and not now. [high]
    M: Petraeus now has command, Afghan army, work with Paki, same strategy – O will not admit he was wrong about strategy in Iraq [dials sink, stay low]
    Pressure to Russia without a cold war?
    M: no cold war but Ra behavior is outside norms.  Warned about Putin, saw in eyes three letter K-G-B.  Most aggressive behavior in GA, Ukraine now in sights of Putin.  Show moral support for GA and UK, membership in NATO.  [dials v high] Activities not acceptable, with our allies.
    O: GA has enormous economic challenges, must see around corners [more halting in this discussion of GA].  We have been reactive, rushed into Iraq, M and Bush cost us dearly in Afghan and OBL.  Reduce energy consumption will reduce Russia’s oil revenue [and influence].
    Yes or No?  Russia Evil Empire?
    O: have evil behavior.
    M: maybe – Russians we can deal with but they must  firm US.
    Defend Israel or wait for UN security council?
    M: can’t wait because Russia and China in UNSC.  Iran nuclear weapons other countries would acquire too.  O with out preconditions wants to sit down and negotiate.[dials high but sank on this criticism]
    O: Never take military options off the table.  Reduce consumption [high dials stay high] to put squeeze on Russians – let them rejoin community of nations.  NK and Iran quadrupled nuclear capability when we stopped talking to them – must talk.
    Brokaw: What don’t you know and how would you learn it?
    O: challenges in presidency unknown.  Learn from my wife (joke) modest single mom, grandma scrimping [women v high, men sink] dream has diminished in 8 years, young people have drive for college but don’t have money.  Need fundamental change.  [women v high, men ¾ level]
    M:  served country, father served, mother raised family, rely on others in tough times, comrades put you back in fight, believe in this country [dials rose on that] need steady hand on tiller, honor to put country first.

    CNN analysts responses:
    Blitzer: more conflict this time.
    Malveaux, Obama supporters wanted him to fight back.
    Gergen: disagree -- flat debate, repetitious.  McCain better on domestic policy but less so on foreign policy this time.  Obama made many comments effective with women and came out modestly ahead overall.
    Campbell Brown: more interesting and more engaged, format worked for Obama as well as McCain.
    King: McCain started walking to audience earlier than Obama.  M had a new plan for Treasury, but otherwise not new.
    James Carville: they don’t like each other.
    Bennett: admire McCain but his campaign is not equal to the story, he needed to break through tonight and didn’t.
    Castellanos: M wants to give everyone a house and O health care.  But M behind and did not catch up.
    Consensus is that McCain, 6 points behind, did not catch up.
    Borger: health care was Obama’s best response.
    Gergen: Obama also did better than before on talking about how people live.
    Dana Bash: McCain did point out once that his proposal was not Bush’s.



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    Obama and McCain third presidential debate
    Format: Three way table, close seating, with Bob Schieffer.
    Raw, unedited notes.

    Analysts afterwards made much of McCain's 21 references to Joe, a disgruntled plumber who had recently confronted Obama over taxes.

    McCain: help for mortgage payments, homeowners first.

    Obama: create jobs, tax cuts below 200K, access IRA without penalty, get homeowners to renogiate mortgages.  Health and education systems.
    M O met a plumber, Joe, wants to buy business – O put in higher tax bracket.  Joe I wil help you buuy that business, taxes low and health care. [directly to camera]
    O – who we cut taxes for.  Three times the tax relief for the middle class.  SZmal businesses make less than 200K.
    M: need to spread the wealth around.  [McCain effectively kep t focused on Joe the plumber.]
    Cost of proposals?  Both ignoring reality?
    Obama: Pay as You Go plan – cut subsidies to insurance programs, and cut across federal budget.  Invest in America.
    McCain.  Energy independent, nuclear, gas, etc.  Create millions of jobs.  Spending freeze.  Hatchet and then scalpel.  Save billions in defense.  Obama’s overhead projector.
    Obama: earmarks only half percent of federal budget.  Surplus when Bush took office – now deficit of half Trillion.  M voted for 4/5 Bush budgets.
    M new direction.  Obama voted twice for tax increase.  Balance budgets.  Stand up to leaders of party.
    O stood up on tort reform, charter schools, clean coal – history of reacing across aisles.  Even Fox nesws disputes M claim on taxes.  On core issues you have been vigorous supporter of President Bush eight more years of same thing.  Respect you on torture.
    High road campaign?  (examples of negatives)
    M Remarks by John Lewis so hurtful – and I have repudiated remarks made by Republicans.
    M obama has spent record on negative advertising.
    M: Attasck ads on health care, stem cell research – false on M position.  Unprecedented.
    O – John Lewis not connected to my campaign.  Your running mate did not stop “Terrorist” calls.
    O – Lewis comparison with civil rights movement not appropriate.
    M proud of people who come to our rallies – but I have repudiated calls.
    O disagree without being disagreeable.
    M need to know full extent of relation with old washed up terrorist and with ACORN.
    O Aires has become centerpiece of their campaign.  Despicable when I was 8 yrs old and I have condemned.  Others on Board were respectable including Republicans.  ACORN did apprrently register people [wrongly] and not connected.  MY work with them was on motor voter law.
    McCain – you sent thousands to ACORN.
    Running mates?
    O: Biden one of finest, foreign pooilcy expertise, never forgotten we came from Scrfanton, father lost his job.  Fight for little guy.  Eight ears of failed policies.  Invet in American People.
    M Palin role model to women, reformer, took on Gov of own party, money back to taxpayers, cut government, $40 Billion.  Ustds special needs families and autism on the rise.
    O: Palin commendable on that – but will ned funding and freeze will prevent that.
    M is qualified but has been wrong on foreign policy – voted against firs tgulf war, wanted to divide Iraq into three countries.  Why so we always have to spend more – O has asked for 860 Bn of newe spending.
    Energy? Climate change.
    M said would unilaterally renoegite NAFTA – you can’t tell countries that.
    O borrowing from China and sending to Saudi.  Alternative energy types.  Fuel eft caar made here in USA.
    M not just “look at” but actually drill now.  I am free trader.  ‘Obama has never travelled south of our border.‘
    O labor leaders in Colombia have been targeted for assass – have to ensure rights in free trade.  Peruvian FT agreement was well structured, I supported.
    M – O wants to restrict trade and raise taxes – last president to do that was Herbert Hoover.
    O two women had just been laid off without health insurance.  If you have health insurance, keep it.  Just lower costs for you.  $2500 per year lower premium.  Cheapest prices on drugs.  Eliminate bureaucracy.  Prevent childhood diseases, over long term save the federal budhget.
    M: painful, co pays go up, escalating cost, inflicts pain on working families.  [List of problems, programs…]  and $5,000 tax credit for choice of health care.  Joe the plumber.  O wants single payer system.
    O I exempt small businesses.  Large busineses provide health care or … average family pays 900 year in higher premiums because of unemployed.  M ‘s plan problem is only younger people get insurance for $5000 – older folks out on own.  Average policy costs $12,000.
    M: Joe, you’re wealthy, you’re rich … and will have to pay a fine if you don’t take Obama’s plan.
    Sen. Obama wants government to do the job.  Govt has grown too much in pst four years.
    O – under M’s plan chamber says employer based care could unravel.
    Nominate to Supreme Court who disagrees with you. On Roe v Wade?
    M wants federal solution.  O voted against Breyer and Roberts on ideological grounds.  Will support strict adherence to constitution.  No litmus test.
    O: no litmus test.  Roe v Wade was rightly decided.  Constitution does have right to privacy, not subject to state refereundums – any more than other rights are.  Judges with outstanding judicial record but have a sense of what real folks are going thru.  Ledbetter had been paid less than men.  Judges said too late – but she didn’t know about it.  McCain opposed our efforts to give better guidance to judges.
    M proudly pro life.  O voted against ban on partial birth abortion, and in IL voted present.
    O not true.  {M raises eyebrows.]  Already law on books required life saving treatment for early baby.  Required also by Hippocratic oath.  Law had no exception for mother’s health and life.  Need education for youth, adoption.  In Dem platform for first time this year.
    O eloquence of Obama – health of mother is stretched to extreme – Cindy and I adopted.
    US spends more on education than any other country but on almost all measures does worse?
    O recruit army of new teachers, higher pay and accountability.  Make college affordable.
    M civil rights issue of twenty first century.  Have achieved equal access to schools – but need choice.  Charter schools.  Competition.
    Federal larger role in schools?
    O NCLB – left money behind. Agree with charter schools and bad teachers (they need to move on).  Disagree on vouchers.  M’s record – his advisor said cant ive money to every interest group – America’s youth are not an interest group.
    M vouchers in DC schools, 9,000 parents wanted.  Head Start reform was blocked by Dems.  Need accountability and transparency.  Expensive education in America needs reform.
    O -- DC schools superintendent support s chareters.  Centerpiece of M is to increase vouchers in DC by 2,000 slots – leaves others out.
    M so if not enough vouchers we should nt do it even if its working!
    Final remarks.
    M: spending has mortgaged your childrens futures.
    [O is looser, M was rigid in final discussion.]

     
     

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