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PSC 305: Presidency & Congress | PSC 311: Voters, Parties & Elections | Charts of '07-'08 Polls

National projections, 10pm CT:

With polls closing in west, ABC, NBC and CNN project Obama President-elect

Sen. McCain called Obama to concede, then spoke 10:17pm, recalling (for contrast) the invitation a century ago of TR to BTW to dine in the WH, which then caused outrage.

National projections, 9pm CT:

Dems +4 in Senate, plus the 2 independents

Iowa, for Bush in 2004, plus Florida, to Obama this time.

Indiana, Arizona and Virginia, still too close to call

Nebraska and Connecticut Senate seats won by Democrats.  Chris Shays, the last Republican in NE, lost.office.

Rep. John Murtha survived in PA some unfortunate remarks about racists and rednecks.

Sen. Landrieu (D) in MS still not safe.

Texas and Mississippi for McCain

National projections, 8:30pm CT:

New Mexico, Ohio (20 electoral votes) for Obama

AL for McCain

National projections, 8pm CT:

Michigan (high unemployment), Wisconsin, New York, Rhode Island for Obama

Kansas and N. Dakota, Wyoming, West Virginia for McCain

Arizona (McCain's home state) still too close to call

NH: Jeanne Shaheen (D) to US Senate, over Sen. Sununu (R), a fourth Senate seat icked up by Dems.

National projections, 7pm CT:

Pennsylvania, contested by McCain last week, but usually a Democratic state, is projected for Obama.

New Hampshire, the state that helped McCain, favored Obama, especially among highly educated voters, independents, and even among a majority of men.

A group of east coast states closed their polls at 7pm Central Time, but most could not be projected immediately, for lack of actual vote totals.  CNN declined to project based on exit polls alone.

National projections, 6pm CT:

Virginia elected Mark Warner (former Governor, D) Senator to replace the retiring John Warner (R, no relation).  Republicans seemed to be in trouble throughout VA

Vermont was first to choose Obama, with 3 electoral votes.

Kentucky with 8 electoral votes, was the first for McCain.  But Mitch McConnell (Repub. leader of Senate) was in race of his life, within one percent.

In early results from Indiana, before the cities of Indianapolis and Gary reported, Obama was faring well even in conservative rural counties. Obama was taking 2/3 of new voters there.

Maine: Sen. Susan Collins survived a challenge.

In North Carolina, Kay Hagan was running ahead in early returns of Elizabeth Dole, projected to win former seat of Jesse Helms.

Pennsylvania

Obama began nightly meetings with to campaign aides after losing PA to CLinton by ten points in primary.  Obama made only gaffe before that, "bitterly clinging to guns and religion".

Unions coordinated major campaign to persuade members to vote for first black Dem. nominee in general election.

E. PA wealthy counties (Bucks and Montgomery) for Obama

North Carolina

Mecklenburg County around Charlotte, has suffered from the banking meltdown recenlty.

New Hampshire

South is populous, north rural and conservative.  Cities Manchester, Nashua and Portsmouth all in S and SE. Jean Shaheen (D) needs to carry these to offset John Sununu (R) strength in rural areas.

Virginia

VA has been Republican for president in the last ten elections (40 years).

VA has Obama voters in rapidly growing DC suburbs, with conservative Christian and military voters in SE coast.  West is rural voters.

So, need results from varied areas in order to project.

Florida:

battleground is mostly in central area, I-4 corridor, compared to conservateive North and democratic South FL.

By 9pm CNN found overwhelming majority of Latinos voted for Obama, heavily disapproved of Bush

By 7pm CT, Florida youth and hispanic voters were down compared to 2004, but older voters turning out better than for 2004.

Indiana: McCain by 7pm CT is underperforming in Republican areas (rural) where he needs to offset Obama's strength in cities and universities.

Stephanopoulos: VIgo county in west IN is a bellwether county for last century.

Rowland Martin: Obama's inauguration on 20 Jan '09 is on anniversary of foundation of NAACP after race riot in Springfield IL, where Obama got his start in politics.

Peter Hart: 3 narratives: Turnout highest since 1960, youth participating, economy eclipsed other issues.  Very different from beginning of year.

Gergen:

95% of change voters are voting for Obama, so McCain unable to break identity with Bush

Senate candidates were running independently of McCain and Bush.  In Oregon, even featuring Obama in ads.

George WIll (ABC) "sound of ice cracking all over America" as states that have gone the same way in 40 years become competitive.

Cokie Roberts: not the longest election in US history, that was 1824.

Donna Brazile: Democrats did reunify after primaries for a strong campaign in the Fall.  Obama put together the best Dem. organization in memory.

Charlie Gibson and Matthew Dowd, ABC: debates successfully made him seem presidential.

Ohio has voted with the winner since 1964.

David Plouffe, Campaign mgr for Obama: expanding the electorate was central to strategy, with numerous volunteers.  GOTV had to work better than Republicans', for a change.

Primary results among independent voters showed Obama's appeal in several marginally Republican states such as IN adn VA, became part of strategy via a leap of faith.

IN: McCain had no offices in early October, contrast with Obama.

First real internet campaign (even though started with Howard Dean 2004).

Amendment 1 to establish rainy day funds for the education and general budgets, would help to cover the shortfall in taxes this year, and spread it over 6 years.

333,000 new registrants in AL this calendar year.

8pm CT: Supreme court race close, Baxley's comeback with good name recognition.

57% (NBC) and 62% (ABC) found the economy to be the salient issue.  It is rare for one issue to be cited by so many respondents.

ABC, 10pm: exit polling shows Democratic ID 39%, Repubs 33%, Indeps 28%.  Shows shift from Repubs to Dems

Few voters cite the country being on the right track.  SC: overwhelmingly divided between black and white, with McCain projected by CNN winning.

The consensus of commentators on TV channels and in national newspapers recently has been:

 

• Presidency: for Obama to win with around 51-54% of the vote nationally, and 300-330 electoral college votes.
• McCain, if he loses Virginia, does not seem to have any likely combination of states that would reach the 270 needed for victory.  Without VA, even if he wins all toss-up states according to the surveys up to Friday, would still achieve no more than 268 in the electoral college.  If he wins, it would be a remarkable upset compared to the polls of the last three weeks.
• Toss up states are those within the margin of sampling error of most polls.  However, the sheer number of polls showing similar projections gives us confidence even in pretty close margins this year, at least that Obama is likely to win the national vote as well as electoral college.
• In the Senate, Democrats are believed likely to take about +8 (D) seats, from the 51-49 balance currently, leaving them still short of the 60 needed to close debate.
• The Alaskan race is affected by the financial scandal and seven recent convictions of Sen. Ted Stevens (R).
• In NC, Liddy Dole, a household name for twenty years, is in trouble, and may lose to a little-known democrat.
• In the House, the consensus is around +28 (D) seats, remarkable for the second election in a row.  It has a 236-199 Democratic majority going in to the election.
• In Alabama, even our second (open) and third districts (Republican held over many years) are competitive this year.
• The 5th district is an open seat.  Reps. Everett and Cramer are retiring.  Look for those districts  to be featured briefly in national coverage tonight.
• Look for a surge in African American voting, including that in Montgomery.
• 11 Governorships are up for election, with Republicans hoping to reduce the Democrats' 28-22 majority by winning close contests in NC and WA.  Democrats are likely to win the open seat in MO.
• In 2010, 80% of Governors' seats will be contested before the 2012 redistricting process.
• The Washington state governorship was won in 2004 by only 134 votes.
• The VT Governor's three-way race requires over 50% -- so may not be settled until January when the state legislature decides.

Results to listen for on election evening:

Exit polls results will be available late afternoon, before the evening voters (especially on the west coast) have had their say.  Of particular interest is how much of the vote is against president Bush rather than focussed on the the current candidates.

Indiana, Republican for president since 1964, is a dead heat in surveys, and closes polls at 5pm CT

Pennsylvania, where Obama leads in surveys even though McCain has been campaigning there for the last week, closes polls at 7pm CT.  If Obama exceeds the 412,000-vote win of John Kerry in 2004, if could signal a win across the country. -- Politico.com

If Obama wins any of these, it would be difficult for McCain to win.: Ohio (6:30 pm CT), Virginia (6 pm.), North Carolina (6:30 pm) or Florida (7 pm).

The presidential winner, whoever it is, will make history.

• The next president will be the 16th US Senator to win, and will either be the first African American and (I believe) the fifth youngest -- or will be the oldest at first inauguration and the first born outside any US state or Puerto Rico (McCain was a Panama Canal Zonian by birth).
• Although McCain would not be the first shot-down flier to serve (Bush 41 was) or the first partially disabled president (FDR was) -- he would be the first tortured POW to serve.
• Obama almost certainly (whether he wins or loses) will hold the record for the most funds raised and spent on a presidential campaign (eclipsing Bush 43).
• McCain would be the second graduate of USNA (Annapolis), after Jimmy Carter, to become president.
• This is the first presidential campaign in 24 years without a Clinton (1992, 1996) or a Bush (1988, 1992, 2000, 2004) heading the ticket.
• Further, a Bush was VP (1980 & 1984) -- not to mention a Governor of Florida.

Look for a much higher electoral turnout this year.

Since 1960, turnout has gradually declined to about 52%, the equal lowest among developed nations (with Switzerland).

A turnout above 54% of eligible voters would be considered quite high by modern US standards (though still very low by European standards, let alone Australia's 95%).

About 8% are still responding to pollsters that they have not yet made up their minds.  Contrary to news speculation that they could break strongly for McCain (because they tend to fit his voter profile) -- in past years they have tended mostly not to vote at all.  So, the late deciders for McCain effect is likely to be weak.

The surge in African American turnout that has been much talked about this year, will likely be fulfilled.  Early voters have been surging, they have been encouraged by the Obama campaign, and they have Obama voters' profile.

Although there has been speculation about a "Bradley effect" where the leading African American candidate loses in a sudden white backlash vote at the polls -- there has been no sign of that this year, so far.

 Although there was speculation about Palin's raising turnout among women, about 60% of women polled recently disapprove her candidacy.  Men are (on average) more impressed.  It does look as though she still might raise turnout slightly among Republican moral-right base voters.

Turning points in the campaign:

October: Obama continues to appear on track and confident, described as "presidential", continues to rise slightly in surveys of most states.

October: Palin suffers from comic impressions by Tina Fey on Saturday Night Live.

October: Palin suffers lower ratings after poor performance in ABC and then CBS interviews.

October: McCain "suspends" his campaign and flies to Washington where he seems unable to affect negotiations already under way for the rescue package.

October: more financial services companies reported being distressed, some needing rescure from teh US government.

15 Sep. McCain argued (reassuringly) the fundamentals of the economy were sound -- a damaging sound bite as economic distress rapidly became the salient issue.

29 Aug. McCain picked Palin as running mate.  Initially this was a success in Convention.  However, over two months she produced disapprovals among swing voters.

Obama had already rejected federal funding, in order to raise and spend more than the federal limits.

If the Jeremiah Wright videos had surfaced only in October rather than earlier, they might have undercut some of Obama's rise.

Issues: Look for "economic" voting and general "mood for change" voting in this year's exit polling.

Speculation will probably be confirmed on both counts.  Exit polls (with 11,000 sample size) tend to be highly accurate and can tell us much about how subgroups voted, as well as why they voted one way or another.

CNN-ORC issues tracker based on pre-election polling, 30 Oct. - 1 Nov., N=714, sampling error +/- 3.5 points.

Economy 57%

War in Iraq 13%

Health care 13%

Terrorism 10%

Illegal immigration 5%

This recalls the 1992 election "haiku" of the Clinton campaign's War Room, attributed to James Carville:

Change versus More of the Same

Don't forget health care

It's the Economy, Stupid!

Opposition to the war in Iraq is less salient now than it was a few months back.

Opposition to Obama's association with a radical pastor (and others) is less significant because of the economic downturn.

The "October Surprise" of the major bankruptcies and government bail out of the financial services sector turned the electors away from other issues and squarely onto the economy.

Much voting against McCain will turn out to be really voting against the party of president Bush, who is highly unpopular owing to both the long war in Iraq and the poor economic news.

Both McCain and Obama have been strikingly strong candidates, with both personal appeal and great vigor.

While Obama has announced moderate protection from foreign competition, and McCain is more in favor of free trade, Congress will face the same pressures from local unemployment in the midwest next year, regardless of the presidential winner.

While both candidates have health care reform plans, voters have a difficult time understanding the complexities of health care reforms other than covering more people and requiring lower premiums.

Adaptation of the parties during the year after the election

The losing side will face recrimination, learn lessons and modify itself to appeal to voters in 2010.  The winning side will be well advised to do the same.

Neither side can really blame its candidate.  Both presidential candidates have performed well.

Obama could have repudiated his pastor faster, and McCain could have avoided assuring the electorate that the fundamentals of the economy were sound just when the financial services companies were in difficulties.  Both gaffes cost them unfavorable media attention -- but both of these were understandable.

Many new members of Congress, who depended on an electoral tide to wash them into Congress, will risk losing their seats in two years when the tide ebbs.

Consider the example of the Republicans who won seats in 1994, only to have to cling to them in 1996.

The winning side will face serious difficulties next calendar year: a large budget deficit, a poor economy, the decline of international trade, an overextended military, and two long wars to wind down.

Regardless of the winning president, it will be difficult to make great changes in the wars:

the Afghan war will need greater effort and perhaps new strategy, because the enemy is already doing the same.

Given the huge scale of forces involved (around 300,000 public and private troops) the Iraq war cannot be wound down quickly

Many guardsmen and regulars have already served multiple tours, the tours are longer (15 months) than planned, and the forces are all-volunteer.

The state of politics in Iraq -- like the local army and police forces -- is only improving slowly.

Wars are expensive (Iraq is estimated to cost $10 Billion per month) and tax revenue is suffering in the recession.

Troops can be withdrawn in orderly fashion, but only at about one brigade (5,000-6,000) per month.

NBC Saturday Night Live sketches,

McCain and Palin sell on QVC network

Gov. Palin Message, "threatening" NBC, on Presidential Bash

Sen. McCain on Weekend Update, strategizes as reverse maverick

The MontgomeryAdvertiser.com endorsed the following candidates for the general election:

President: Barack Obama, Democrat
U.S. Senate: Jeff Sessions, Republican
U.S. House, 2nd District: Bobby Bright, Democrat
U.S. House, 3rd District: Josh Segall, Democrat
Alabama Supreme Court: Greg Shaw, Republican
Criminal Appeals Court, Place 1: Clyde Jones, Democrat
Criminal Appeals Court, Place 2: Aimee Cobb Smith, Democrat
Civil Appeals Court: Bill Thompson, Republican
Public Service Commission President: Twinkle Cavanaugh, Republican
State Board of Education, District 3: Stephanie Bell, Republican
State Board of Education, District 5: Lula Bridges, Republican
Montgomery County Circuit Judge: Randy James, Republican
Montgomery County District Judge: Jimmy Pool, Democrat
Montgomery County Revenue Commissioner: Jane Mardis, Republican
Montgomery County Commission, District 5: Reed Ingram, Republican
Montgomery County School Board, District 1: Heather Sellers, Republican
Autauga County School Superintendent: Greg Faulkner, Republican
Amendment 1: Yes

League ofWomen Voters has a page for the Appellate judges, and

the Birmingham News at AL.com has a page for candidates.

True to form, the Montgomery Advertiser does not allow free access to its voter guide without paying for the archive of past stories.

By late October, Obama was rising in the polls in almost all the battleground states, and taking small leads in most polls.  McCain's forces moved out of some in order to defend some Republican states, based on the 2000 and 2004 elections.

Both candidates in the last days campaigned in the Atlantic seaboard and middle western battleground states, then hopped west across country to reach the others.

Obama did make a side trip to Hawaii, owing to the declining health of his grandmother.  (She died just before the election).

In early September, it looks like each candidate has a reasonable chance of winning the following “battlegrounds,” which collectively account for 121 electoral votes: New Hampshire (4), North Dakota (3), Montana (3), Nevada (5), Colorado (9), Iowa (7), Virginia (13), North Carolina (15), Florida (27), Michigan (17), Ohio (20), New Mexico (5). -- Dautrich and Yalof, Political Perspective, 5(8).

Because they are far-flung, with the votes divided among some small states as well as populous states, parties cannot really concentrate their resources.

Electoral-Vote and Pollster are both, in calculating the electoral college based on polling trends, showing the presidency still in the balance.

Pollster shows (8 Sep.) 179 R, 116 tossup, 243 D.  This is based not on averaging polls alone, but on regressing and extrapolating trend lines from polls.

Top state supporting Obama? Likely to be Hawaii plus the District of Columbia.

Top state supporting McCain? Likely to be among the plains states: Idaho at 68%, followed by Kansas, Oklahoma and Nebraska.

By the end of July 2008, Barack Obama had raised a total of $390 million, and John McCain raised $174 million.  Obama’s campaign opted to forfeit the $85 million in public money that would have been available to him after the Democratic convention, and press ahead with private fundraising.  Remarkably, in 2008 it is the Republican who needs public funding.

By late September, let alone November, Obama had shattered all records for fundraising, in addition to the number of small contributors.

Conventions used to be lengthy, deliberating bodies making a real choice of presidential nominee.  Since the 1960s, however, the nominees have been essentially predetermined by the delegate count from the primaries and caucuses.

The first day is taken up with the platform debate over issues, the first and second evenings with introductions, keynotes and testimonials about the party, the candidate and his or her family; the third night with vice presidential nomination; and the final night with presidential nomination (usually anointment).  Junior leaders have their moments in prime time to speechify.

A weakness of US conventions is their loose connection to actual policies in office -- they are better seen as political theater.

Media network coverage used to be blanketing, but nowadays involves only an hour or two of prime time per evening.

This time, speeches are also available online

Surprise choice of Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska dominated the coverage.  She emerged as a lively speaker with a common touch, appealing to "hockey mom" mothers, gun owners, and the right wing of the culture wars.

A political science major from Idaho, and a Miss Congeniality in a state pageant, with a mid western twang, she has a remarkably strong speaking style, and was comfortable with teleprompters.

Her large and appealing family were telegenic, including the infant with Down's syndrome.

Her attacks on Obama's lack of executive experience compared to her own small-town mayor's experience, played well to the crowd, but will seem less significant in time.

Her attacks on Obama's policy and tax plans were popular but really far-fetched -- see the fact-checking service, Politifact.com.

Her audience ratings were almost as high as Obama's, at 37 million.

She came with two known vulnerabilities: she had supported the "bridge to nowhere" until it was clearly failing; and her 17 year old daughter Bristol was acknowledged as being pregnant.  These she brushed aside, well, in her speech.

McCain's speech, although clear and policy oriented, was not such a crowd pleaser as the VP nominee's.

Since McCain is better at "town hall meetings" than a formal speech, the podium was moved into the audience.

"We have lost the trust" of the American people in corruption and must earn it back.

Strong foreign policy with regard to terrorism and Iran, knows how to stand up to world leaders.

"Build the foundation for an enduring peace."

McCain's personal story of being tortured was introduced (again) humbly with a theme of the self-centered youth learning modesty and patriotism.  He was saved by fellow prisoners.

"Fight with me." "Stand up and fight."  "We never fight history, we make history" -- his final lines to fire up the troops.

The theme of the convention was "Country First".  Leading politicians were introduced but President Bush appeared only by video.  The party -- let alone the current war in Iraq -- was hardly mentioned in speeches.

Strikingly, the leading females (Laura Bush, Sarah Palin, Cindy McCain in speeches and a video) were a huge success.

Cindy McCain's adopted daughter from BanglaDesh, the dark-skinned target of smears in the 2000 South Carolina Republican primary, was introduced by video and in person.

Cindy McCain herself successfully emphasized her global charity work, and her parents humble roots, rather than the fortune she inherited.  Her presentation of self included a softer hair style than previously,

Successful warm-up speeches on Thursday before the VP nominee acceptance speech: Rudolph Giuliani and (to some degree) Fred Thompson, who both performed better with a Teleprompter than they had on the campaign trail.  Mitt Romney, a competent speaker as before, did not add originality to his credentials.

Obama picked Sen. Joe Biden as his running mate, seemingly in order to balance the ticket with longer Washington experience (especially in foreign policy) and an ability to attack the opposition.

Obama's riveting acceptance speech was watched by about 38 million people live and many more online later.  It was considered one of the great convention speeches.

Hillary and Bill Clinton spoke eloquently in support of Obama.

There was little survey "bounce" this time, no doubt because the Republican convention cleverly dominated news coverage the next week.