of guest speaker events at ALWAC
Jeremy Lewis, PhD
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NOTES ON SPEAKERS, 2018-2019
All programs are from 5:30 - 7:30 pm, Gold Room, 2nd Floor, Whitley Hall,
Troy University Montgomery, 231 Montgomery St. Montgomery, AL
Tuesday 11 September
2018: Dr. Pano Yannakogeorgos, “A World at War With Itself: The Cyber
Threat and Globalization”
advancement has resulted in a compression of time and space. The
consequence has meant an unprecedented global interconnectedness and
interdependence never before known among peoples and locales. A
vulnerable and unstable cyberspace infrastructure is the critical
underpinning of this hyper-interconnection. The integrity of this domain
is essential to national security, public safety, and modern civic
intercourse worldwide. The aim of this talk is to familiarize the
audience with conflict that takes form in cyberspace. It is always
evolving, the terrain is blurred between public and private entities,
the weaponry is in a constant state of upgrade, and adversaries are
indistinct and ubiquitous.
Dr. Pano Yannakogeorgos (Ph. D. Rutgers University) is the founding Dean
of the Air Force Cyber College at Air University. His expertise includes
the intersection of cyber power, national security, and military
operations; international cyber policy; and Eastern Mediterranean
security. His most recent publication is The
Cyber Threat and Globalization: The Impact to National and
International Security (Rowman Littlefield, 2018).
Globalization and Prosperity
barriers no longer limit connected activity, unlike in Alexander the
Great’s empire [map].
have national borders like any other domain
likely to have military control of the whole battlefield.
penetration trends increasing between 2010 and 2016 [on side by side
broadband has become more affordable of fixed broadband in countries
below top level of income.
age cohort coming into internet, and most involved age in cyberattacks.
that military, corporate and criminal organizations seek to recruit.
tech increasingly connected e.g. for power grids, reduces costs.
remote control increases vulnerability.
of Things (IOT) to alleviate hunger, increase health care [image of
solar powered wifi enabled soil moisture sensor to farmers; improves
human condition in poorer world but vulnerable].
vehicles of all kinds now mean millions of lines of code.
vulnerabilities and Threat proliferation
software rushed out before tested for vulnerability.
known and unknown.
exploit; exploit kit; markets for selling exploits; tools for finding
a search engine for vulnerable things.
lead to Advisory notices being circulated as warning.
exploit of SSL layer; as of today thousands of devices vulnerable in US
vector is people: spearphishing.
botnets from networks of compromised machines.
spam, DDoS, stealing data, fraud – but taken down via their Command and
Control (C & C).
robust criminal law enforcement to disrupt criminal threats.
are now joined by groups trying to disrupt political activity.
spectrum attacks are only feasible by nation state actors.
is for IT sector to build more robust defenses.
not a network but a loose set of tribes around the world, hacktivists
trying to change political practices.
falsely tweeted explosion at WH, stock market affected – Syrian E-army
used phishing attack.
web is small compared to dark web hacker networks.
create alternative domain name in onion network.
activity using bitcoin and blockchain to avoid law enforcement.
response to investigation.
finds Belarus a black hole, Aussie cooperative and EU protective of
stealing corporate secrets for profit. Hacking into banks.
misuse of web. US using law enforcement tools to pressure foreign state
2007 attacked Estonia that uses online ID card, crippling country for a
time. NATO however responded by setting up a cyber center in Estonia.
issue. Who downed the MH17 Malaysian Boeing? Estonians answered
according to whether watching Russian TV and most said USA responsible.
shipping line, Ukrainian power system.
C-130 lost when essential files were accidentally wiped.
Iranians indicted for DDoS attacks on hydro-electric systems.
industry now developing more secure products.
all defensive – what about US hostile approach? Best is still
defensive, reducing vulnerabilities, keep military trained for going
back to basics using paper if system disrupted.
Protection Regulations? A cultural angle. OPM was breached but response
was that breach did not result in losses. Same with Experian. Europe
different because of sensitivity to 1930s when governments caused harm
to citizens. Cookie notices are result of GDPR.
cyber equivalent of nuclear deterrent? Defense science board report
2013: deterrence by punishment, denial and resilience. Attributing
actions to individuals is difficult but used as a deterrent. PETYA went
worldwide but not controlled. Nation states use proxies to hide their
tracks, so hard to counter attack them with force. Should not take
aggressive action because US is vulnerable.
the impact of different media outlets on end of net neutrality on
happening in Montgomery? Gunther annex is base of defense info systems,
a key hub for internet activity. Corporate internet exchange locally to
speed business connections.
generation internet (5G) is more than previous increases in speed, is
revolutionary change in tech – and for first time, China
leading this stage – previously US and Europe vying for tech
will be able to protect consumers from insecure products and companies
that suffer breaches.
Tuesday 16 October 2018: Dr. Grant Hammond, “The
Revolution in Security Affairs” [Brought forward to here]
Over the last twenty years, the ends, ways and means of providing for
national security have changed dramatically as the result of a
combination of changes in the strategic landscape and technology. We are
in an era of “unrestricted warfare” declared by China in 1999 in which
we are in competition, conflict and combat 24/7/365 around the globe, in
space and cyber space. This presentation will examine how and why this
has happened as it has and the implications, now and in the future.
Dr. Grant Hammond (PhD SAIS, Johns Hopkins University) recently retired
from the USAF Center for Strategy and Technology after 29 years of
federal service and as President of ALWAC. He is the author of 3 books (Countertrade
Offset and Barter in International Political Economy; Plowshares into
Swords: Arms Races in International Politics; The Mind of War: John
Boyd and American Security), editor of a fourth (John Boyd’s
Discourse on Winning and Losing) and has two more in progress. One
is on this topic and the other on Crisis Decision Making in the
Nixon Administration in October 1973.
Began with a brief video. At CST, living in the future for twenty years.
The development of tech, Sagan style to show expanding horizons and
Revolutions in Tech and their impacts [slide]
C19th industrial Revolution
C20th total war
Numeracy, algorithms, big data, automation
Big shift [slide]
C21st digital rev and AI super-computing
Integrated circuit (IC) chip and internet by 1990
2007 smartphone, empowerment of non-state actors
Tech adoption rates [slide] time taken for 25% of US pop to adopt each
technology – smartphones only took 5 years, dramatically shorter than
previous technologies in the home.
FANG corporations (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google)
Google created in 1998, Facebook in 2004, YouTube in 2005
Transparency [slide] now we can see the rest of the iceberg. Hard to
keep strategic secrets.
Kenyan tribesmen with cell phones [slide] and doing cellphone banking is
Facebook by 2017 had 2.13 Bn users (1/3 of humans). Zuckerberg had 1 Bn
more followers than the Pope.
YouTube: 1.3 Bn users watch 6 Bn hours of video [daily?]. [slide]
Everything is “Glocal” now, both Global and local. [slide]
Hyundai in AL allowed to export to Mexico under NAFTA. [Other examples
Cuban relations when questionable made manufacturers in AL nervous
because it was an emerging market.
IOT [slide] by 2020 likely 50Bn devices. Many devices in each home will
be connected soon. One demo has hacked a computer from a refrigerator.
Who provides security against what threats? [slide]
Progression from Soldier> malware defenses> metal detectors >
Bio attack (by bacteria or virus that has been weaponized) is the most
likely threat even though nonlethal, because cheap and easy to develop
and hard to attribute – and if nobody dies, is it really war?
Unrestricted warfare [slide]
China will compete by non-military, military and trans-military means,
and cyber spans them all.
“Lawfare” like warfare, involves Chinese sponsored conferences on the
internet, invites Liliputian microstates and UN, then get majority vote
of members that has effect of a UN resolution.
Do other countries have to play the game the same way?
1s and zeros can be deadly [slide] can turn off equipment in hospitals,
airports and power grids; even cars, having multiple computers, are
Biological threats [slide] map of health threats, viri and fevers that
are known. But smallpox can be mail ordered and using CRISPR9, a
scientist can tweak them to attack specific types of people.
Global data flows [slide] a zeta byte is 1 with 21 zeros, total of all
books in Library of Congress.
Changing nature of military intelligence [slide] from tiny percent
classified to overwhelmingly open source – e.g., tweet in real time from
a civilian about a helicopter over Abbottabad during Bin Laden raid.
Networks and messaging [slide]
Tribalism and Truth Decay [RAND] by Cavanaugh and Rich. Human society,
experiments with kids 4-6, into red and blue tee shirts, show video and
ask them what they think of people with red and blue shirts in video.
Kids evaluate the subjects according to color of tee shirt. Universal
Mattis [slide] quote, “capturing perceptions of foreign audiences” is
new alternative to terrain.
Old warfare [slide] breaking things and killing people.
The new pen is real time streaming video shared to military purpose.
Harder to kill an idea, mightier than sword. Primacy counts. He who
posts first, wins.
Non-kinetic, non-lethal warfare [slide] 3.7 Bn have access to Internet,
¼ of humanity has Facebook account, 500 M tweets per day, 7 hrs of
consumers’ video uploaded per second.
David Parikarakotas, War in 140 characters book, about
Ukraininan woman who started housewives’ group online to supply
Ukrainian brigades with coats and basic needs.
Cognitive warfare and assault on knowledge [slide] perception of reality
is most contested battle-space. Extreme partisan views, confusion, “what
Tom Nichols, The Death of Expertise. Book. Reports are not true
unless you choose to believe.
Fake news, alternative facts, the big lie.
Johnathan Swift quote [slide] 1710. “Falsehood flies, and the truth
comes limping after it, so that when men come to be undeceived, it is
too late …”
Old war not going away, but less affordable, less prevalent. Wars in
cold war were on periphery and by proxy.
New weapons are small, swift, cheap, remote, robotic – unlike US
practice of holding big, costly long-term weapons systems.
Security no longer left to law enforcement.
Leon Trotsky “you may not be interested in war, but war is interested in
Big Question of Future [slide]
Perhaps 38% of US jobs may disappear by 2040 (c.f. 10% is considered a
recession, 20% is a depression).
Destined to be replaced by automation: Truck drivers, forklift truck
operators, checkout counters, and many others.
We are largely silent observers in this process.
Is there still truth? There are standards of what constitutes truth and
either act with integrity to support that or not.
Jobs to be gained? True, but at present we have 7 M jobs unfilled for
lack of skills, and a bar on immigration. Future jobs will not convert
truck drivers to computer jobs.
Program took WV coal miners kids and taught them to code – unfortunately
Guaranteed minimum wage for employed or unemployed – a bad idea in a
Invest in public education and mid-career retraining programs, carefully
Director of cybersecurity in White House, unfortunately, was eliminated
Is war outdated as a way to settle disputes? Too expensive now to wage
war. Arms race with USSR without using weapons was not so expensive. DOD
is more an offensive department than defensive. One of two unarmed
interceptors on 9/11 was flown by women whose father was flying for AA.
Google just declined to work for DOD projects – what if others do
CRISPR kits available for low prices ($140, according to audience
member). Even though US is vulnerable and needs cyber defense, must
develop offensive cyber capabilities.
Stefan Schlüter, “Rising
Anti-Semitism and Populism in Europe,” Luncheon speaker (special event),
Schlüter is the Program Director, Diplomatic Academy in Berlin. He is a
former German Consul General and will also address US-German relations.
Sponsored by the American Council for Germany
Recent history of Jews in Germany
In 1934 there were 550K Jews in Germany, though many left before 1939;
In 1945 15K Jews were left and some arrived in displaced person camps.
Grew slowly till 1990s, 30K. 1991, Berlin Wall came down and many
Eastern European Jews went to either Israel or Germany.
Now about 120K in congregations, 200K in total, mostly from Russia. Some
young Israelis in Berlin staying from months to years.
Diplomatic relations established with Golda Meir’s government in 1964.
In 1950s under the radar, although Germany forbidden by US to sell arms
to Israel, gave them free.
Special relationship because not merely diplomatic but friendship. 600K
Germans and Israeli student exchange, city, university and army
partnerships. Tall ship of navy visited Israel 1988.
Cabinet meets annually in Jerusalem or Germany with Israeli
Modern problems of anti-Semitism.
No less than in other European countries. Some on right but also some on
Left. Immigrants from Middle East do arrive with hatred of Jews.
2017 about 1500 felonies anti-Semitic, painting Swastikas type – but
growth is in attacks on Jews, 98% by young arrivals from Middle East.
New post of commissioner to try to reduce these.
Huge task to integrate refugees from Middle East. 850K immigrants
arrived in two weeks, very hard to manage. No vetting, surprised Bill
Kristol. Yes, terrorists came in with asylum seekers, but have many
other means of entry. Difficult to check on refugees from war-torn
areas. Some immigrants do bring totally different set of values and
attitudes to LGBT and women. Giving language and customs classes. Many
problems with family treatment of girls, etc.
Denmark: usual for all parents to let kids be taken to free pre-school,
made available to all – but NYT criticized it as tearing kids away from
AfD has 94 seats in 600-member Bundestag (parliament) [and 7/96 in
European Parliament – ed] but for now far away from having to be
25% of influx of refugees are already employed or in training programs
from 2015 intake. Some of the rest do have poor education and language
Merkel did not actually open the border but decided not to close the
border; and had liberal asylum laws (orig. for Jews) and refugees.
Hoping a substantial portion can return home after war runs down.
Economic refugees though have attraction to benefits – but still expect
some to return home.
The 75% not engaged do have government housing and benefits at the same
level as German citizens.
Sadly, insult of “you Jew” is an insult once again, e.g., in schools.
Commissioner trying to refine statistics, to separate (many) painting
signs from (few) physical attacks.
Reaction to rise of Trump and nationalism? Germany does not criticize US
over slavery, but Germans were shocked by Trump’s good people on both
sides comment after Charlottesville.
New US ambassador in Berlin announced he would support populist
movements – another shock. Also Steve Bannon set up office in London to
AfD not strongly anti-Semitic and has a group of Jews within
organization. Likewise, in French FN.
Merkel now in office 16 years and was expecting to step down before 2016
– but refugee crisis prevented that, did not want to leave after the
decision of immigrants.
AfD found more on economic populism against Euro and power in Brussels –
but slowly edged out by radicals.
Many Germans felt refugees were guests and reluctant to tell them
values. Forced marriages, equality of women, primacy of religion in
life. Belief in executing those who renounce Islam.
New CSU governor of Bavaria decreed cross displayed in every government
Violent incidents very small number but committed by immigrants; nearly
all incidents are nonviolent and not increasing.
Incidents in UK after Brexit vote against foreigners surged.
Thursday 15 November 2018, change of speaker and
date: Dr. Joshua Busby, "Climate Change and National Security: What Do
Joshua Busby is a distinguished scholar at the Strauss Center,
nonresident fellow with the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, and a
senior research fellow at the Center for Climate & Security, LBJ
School of Public Affairs, University of Texas at Austin. Dr. Busby has
published widely on climate change, global health, transnational
advocacy movements and U.S. foreign policy for various think tanks and
academic journals, including International Security, International
Studies Quarterly, Security Studies and Perspectives on
Politics. His first book, Moral Movements and Foreign Policy,
was published by Cambridge University Press in 2010. His second book, AIDS
Drugs for All: Social Movements and Market Transformations, with
co-author Ethan Kapstein, was published by Cambridge University Press in
2013 and won the 2014 Don K. Price Award (the American Political Science
Association’s award for the best book on science, technology and
environmental politics). He was one of the lead researchers on a
five-year, $7.6 million project funded by the Department of Defense
called “Climate Change and African Political Stability” (CCAPS). He is
the principal investigator of another DOD-funded project, “Complex
Emergencies and Political Stability in Asia” (CEPSA) — a three-year,
$1.9 million grant. Dr. Busby is a life member in the Council on Foreign
Relations. He received his Ph.D. in political science in 2004 from
who emphasizes he is a political scientist, not a natural scientist, has
been a reviewer on the NSC assessment of climate change.
his article on which these remarks are based, has been published in Foreign
anomalies since 1980 have been increasingly common, on track for average
to be 2 degrees Fahrenheit above the century's average.
have been dramatically increasing [the "hockey stick" effect graph]
graph of increasing average global surface temperature on land and sea.
security threats traditionally come from one state to another -- but a
better definition is a problem so severe as to be existential.
change poses both direct and indirect threats.
islands are facing a sea level rise as early as 2040.
seats of government are vulnerable to severe coastal weather.
resources are already subject to disputes over flag-planting, sea lane
control and hydrocarbon resources.
US bases will have to be adapted to climate change, including Norfolk,
resources are being diverted to internal threats of hurricanes and
fires. Storm Harvey in Texas took 700 vehicles, many helicopters and
thousands of personnel.
Rico was left without power for months after hurricane Maria. 20,000
soldiers served in logistics, water supply, ports and airports, but
still about 3,000 civilians died. Delivered 1.4 million meals [slide].
floods killed 2,000, where US sent $390 Million in relief.
Haiyan brought a US response of 2400 tons of relief supplies.
change is a threat multiplier, as in NSC's 2008 exercise, NIA.
climate change roadmap, 2009
water security report, 2012
these report there will be problems and stresses over the next couple of
decades, but not extremely risky till 2030 or 2040.
Adaptation Roadmap 2014 -- expects further need for relief missions
Memo Sep. 2016, Climate Change and National Security
Gen. Mattis testimony
NDAA "Climate Change is a direct threat to the national security of the
Coates: long-term trends ... likely to fuel economic and social
discontent, and possibly upheaval, through 2018.
we know? Academic works
Fifth Assessment: "Evidence on effects ... is contested." There is
little academic agreement about the direct effects.
this point, our file of copious notes was damaged and unreadable.
Apologies to our readers.]
[There followed a lively exchange; unfortunately this section of the
notes was also damaged and unreadable.]
Tuesday 12 February
2019: Dr. William "Drew" Wagstaff, "China Ascendant"
China has grown rapidly since the late 1970s when Deng Xiaoping first
began implementing radical reforms. Today, China challenges the United
States militarily in the region and diplomatically around the world. How
are we to understand this rise? This presentation provide the context
for understanding what China’s growth means for the international
community, how Chinese leaders view their place in the world and what
problems they must surmount to achieve those goals.
Dr. William “Drew” Wagstaff (PhD, Emory University) is an Assistant
Professor of International Security for the Blue Horizons Program within
the USAF Center for Strategy and Technology at Maxwell AFB. Dr. Wagstaff
has a number of on-going research projects on terrorism, military
effectiveness, peacekeeping, and Chinese politics. Proficient in
Mandarin, Dr. Wagstaff has enjoyed traveling China, including cities
such as Wuxi, Shanghai, Nanjing, Suzhou, Tianjin, and Beijing.
Tuesday 12 March 2018:
Dr. Adam Segal, “Technology and Innovation”
Segal holds the Ira A. Lipman Chair in Emerging Technologies and
National Security; and is Director of the Digital and Cyberspace Policy
Program, Council on Foreign Relations CFR).
An expert on security issues, technology development, and Chinese
domestic and foreign policy, Segal was the project director for the
CFR-sponsored independent task force report Defending an Open,
Global, Secure and Resilient Internet. His book, The Hacked
World Order: How Nations Fight, Trade Maneuver and Manipulate in the
Digital Age (Public Affairs, 2016) describes the increasingly
contentious geopolitics of cyberspace. His work has appeared in the Financial
Times, The Economist, Foreign Policy, The Wall Street Journal, and
Foreign Affairs, among others. He currently writes for the blog,
Tuesday 9 April 2018:
Ms. Sarah Chayes, "Corruption and its impact"
Senior Fellow, Democracy, Conflict and Governance, Carnegie Endowment
for International Peace.
Sarah Chayes is the author of Thieves of State: Why Corruption
Threatens Global Security. She is internationally recognized for
her innovative thinking on corruption and its implications. Her work
explores how severe corruption can help prompt such crises as
terrorism, revolutions and their violent aftermaths and environmental
Before joining the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Chayes
served as special assistant to the top US military officer, Chairman
of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Mike Mullen. She focused on
governance issues, participating in cabinet-level decision-making on
Afghanistan, Pakistan and the Arab Spring; and traveling with Mullen
frequently to these regions. Chayes was tapped for the job after her
work as special adviser to two commanders of the international troops
in Afghanistan (ISAF), at the end of a decade on the ground there.
Tuesday 7 May Air War
College Professors, Regional Reports
The last program each year is a report from professors at the Air War
College on visits to different areas of the world as part of the
Regional and Cultural Studies portion of the curriculum. Three
professors will report on their findings from their travel in March
and entertain your questions.
Special Programs and other Activities
Spring term, offered late January - mid March, the FPA's
Great Decisions Program
at ALWAC.org for this seminar series, featuring excellent readings and
lively, local speakers. Topics and study booklets (with expert
articles, maps and photos) are produced by the Foreign Policy
Association and published the first week in January. The program
begins in 23 January and runs for 8 consecutive weeks, on Wednesdays,
2-3:30 pm, with approximately 20 enthusiastic people
participating. Location is 106 Bartlett Hall, behind our usual Whitley
building at 231 Montgomery St. Discussion leaders come from the
faculty of Air University and other local colleges.
Collaboration with Global Ties Alabama
educational, charitable institution based in Huntsville which assists
the U. S. Department of State in arranging and hosting participants in
the Fulbright Scholars exchange and visitors program and placing
visiting groups of scholars and students with those in the local area
for dinners or brief home stays as they visit the Capitol, historic
sites in the Montgomery area, the Southern Poverty Law Center, the
Alabama Shakespeare Festival and local universities.
Interaction with some of the International Officers stationed at Maxwell
AFB for a year and their families
Revised 12/30/18 by Jeremy Lewis