The Americas
Huntingdon College Political Science, Public Affairs, 
and International Studies Programs.
World Affairs Councils of America.
Participants' Notes of the
NATIONAL CONFERENCE, January 2002:

THE FUTURE OF THE AMERICAS
(Under construction by Jeremy Lewis, PhD, Montgomery Council; 
notes compiled from various members; additions and corrections welcome;
last revised 23 Jan '02.)

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FRIDAY, JANUARY 18: 

9:00 The War on Drugs. 
William Brownfield, Dep. Asst. Sec. of State for Western Hemisphere.  At OAS.
Will Brownfield awaiting confirmtn Amb. To Chile.
Notes by Prof. Jeremy Lewis, Montgomery Council.
 
  • Will focus on foreign policy implications only.  E.g. Noriega.
  • Why Care?
  • Distorts way of life & environment.
  • Small states of 50k population can be greatly affected.
  • Insurgencies
  • $62.4Bn illegal drug industry in US - Major impact.
  • Consumer & producer & transit nations.
  • Producers: Colombia had growth before US cut drug ind in Peru & Boliviia 1999. First time threat in source zone could overwhelm a major government.
  • Transit zone eg Haiti already in difficulties
  • Plan Colombia developed from Pastrano government for economic, guerrilla & drug wars. US funded in part only -- 2000, so early stages.
  • Andean Regional Initiative gradual shift of support beyond Colombia &-hard support (law enforcement) to soft (development) support.
  • Democracy, Development, Drugs (now Security)
  • Legalization? No - doesn't solve problem. Victims are underclass. Freeing prisons not enough benefit.
  • Expect another generation of drug war.
  • Question Time:
  • southern nations have no drug product & little transit.
  • US farm subsidies do affect non Andean region - but not drug producers.
  • Pesticide use is below EPA levels.
  • US open to 3d party monitoring spraying process.
  • FARC now blocking Colombian peace - & coca production in FARC region growing sharply.
  • Development - Congress failed to renew Andean trade preference to encourage legal production.
  • Military option?
  • Aircraft intellection collection used but term "war" is misleading -- will take generation.
  • Constant contact w/Colombia. DMZ expires soon.  US usually in agreement .
  • Guyana  becoming small transit zone.

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    10:45 Free Trade Area of the Americas
    Amb. Peter Allgeier, Dep. US Trade Rep. responsible for WTO & FTAA, ex Asia.
    Hall of the Americas of the OAS.
    Notes by Prof. Jeremy Lewis, Montgomery Council.
     
  • FTAA in progress 2001 before September economic cutback - summit in Managua. 
  • Now global trade negotiations underway but needs promotion law reported out now by Senate Finance committee.
  • Now near end of negotiation with Chile & other countries requesting.
  • Transparency, openness, fairness in trade of FTAA model -- 34 countries.
  • Textiles protected but reducing by 2005 - & imports increasing rapidly.
  • Steel also protected but reducing.
  • Brazil will co-Host negotiations with US.
  • Brazil liberalizing now but in measured way because of consequences for economic sectors.

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    12:30 Luncheon. 
    Doing Business in Latin America.
    Hall of Flags of the US Chamber of Commerce
    Notes by Prof. Jeremy Lewis, Montgomery Council.

    Thomas "Mack" McLarty, Kissinger McLarty Associates.
    - will need more social safety net to help adjust 
    - be careful out there in trade
    - buyers & exporters
    - involved in NAFTA & 1st summit of Americas in Miami
    - democratic rights & property rights go together
    - now have open democracies & trade but neither fully developed.
    - Mexico & Brazil most important markets.
    - stick to business you know
    - pick partners carefuly
    - gateways in Miami, LA, Houston & N.Orleam with out having to move to S.America.
    - need sustained engagement with region

    Joseph Ha, Vice-President, Nike Corporation
    we pick manufacturing & distribution countries by conditions for business.
    - Mexico now distributor for N.America, encouraged by new regime of Fox.
    - use surprise inspections to keep quality.
    - with micro loan program
    - need to legalize gray market small entrepreneurs in latin Amer.

    Edward Young, Senior VP, Verizon
    Half of world has no phones (Maibach: only 20% in Latin America.  1988 Deregulation unbundled in US - BUT not to export this model- use WTO model instead. Open regime for competition.
    Question Time.
    Ha: half of latin sales of Nikes are fake. Need legalization of under ground economy.
    Hernando de Soto book Spirit of Capital.
    Mack - tax collection also disadvantaged by informal sector.
    Ha - need to find lady beavers for micro loans


    3:00 Discussion Groups and Workshops. At Hotel

    Group 9: Terrorism in Latin America - Steve Monblatt (State)
    State Department Deputy Coordinator of of Counter Terrorism.
    Launched world net US Govt; Faculty US War College; OAS chair of counter Terror ctee.

    Notes by Prof. Jeremy Lewis, Montgomery Council.

    Some years ago, US diplomats kidnapped and ransomed in Brazil & Mexico.
    Afghan war:
    * mopping up -- CC destroyed , heart stilled if not killed.
    * treasure of intell -- some from WSJ reporter who bought AL Qaeda computers from bazaar & US read HD.
    * phase of seeking other cells.  Analyzing next place to go -- & implications for allies.  May be economic or other, not just military attack.  Tracing cells.
    * Isolate terrorists, slow money movemens.
    * May get both Osama as well as finances, but money more imp. 
    * Reduce his ability to fund raise around world.
    * Latins' response among best.  OAS was meeting on 9-11, invoked Rio Ty for self defense - & boosted priority of counter terror committee.
    * Draft Treaty but still no definition of terror.
    * Homeland Security council will include Canada & Mexico, and US has long exchange on security with Canada.  Cooperation with Mexico probably would have been harder before Fox.
    * No indicaton of any Qaeda cell in Latin America. 
    * Other groups like Hisbollah & Islamic Jihad have developed fundraising nets eg triangle of Brazil Argentina & Paraguay.
    * Terror biggest issue in Colombia but US law limits US to counter drug action. 
    * FARC has accepted kidnappees from other groups.
    * Shining Path regrouping in Peru.
    * Fundraising in Chile also.
    * Ease of crossing borders in Latin has let some enter US; document forgery is a persistent problem for drugs & terror.  Informal border crossing common.
    * Committee now dealing with these two issues.  Information clearinghouse & emergency hotlines for technical experts.  Training eg for banks to spot laundering.  Add modules to existing courses.
    * Training for crisis  resp;onse for each country, finding auth and numbers.
    Question Time:
    Jane Wales -- dangers coming from small states.
    * Now database linked to interpol for border checks, installing 14 in 2 yrs in several countries. 
    * But coop with Mogadishu difficult -- govt only controls downtown, not rest of country. 

    *Iraq as bad guy case?
    Steve was in Pentagon command center when crash happened. But incandescent rage is not basis of policy.  Iraq developing weapons & is threat to Kuwait, shooting opponents.   No claim of organized link to Qaeda. 
    Problem with Iraq predates Qaeda.
    No connecton between Ramzi Youssef and Terry Nichols, different methods.
    Reid shoe bomb bothers us because small sophisticated device like Ramzis.  See Qaeda as evil Foundation -- but grantees are autonomous.
    * Qaeda approach is like Turner diaries, and like best business school practices for delegation. 
    * Steve's default is more open information is better but actionable intelligence eg biological agents, bright line must not be crossed.   Current flights of US planes from air base sometimes revealed. 
    * Afghans saying best when governed least.  Qaeda ran off with Afghan national bank, has resources.
    * Ashcroft rules on trials have not had repercussions from allies yet but no actual trial yet.  Seeking charges under law & method of trial.  Grey area between war and criminal problem. 
    * Probably a variety of solutions some repatriated but others court martialled with appeal rights and others military tribunal like WW2 but with rules to be decided.  Protects intel and judges.
    * Crime & drugs are larger problems in Latin than terrorism.
    * Dealing with actions brings consensus but 
    Definitions:
    state: threatened acts of violence by subnational groups intended to bring political ends perpetrated against civilians.
    * Kidnappings for politics rather than money are terrorism. 
    * IRA was on terrorist lists of State till joined peace negot like PLO -- but now would have funding cut off if returned to action. 
    * Pakistan now trying to register religious schools -- and improve secular education.
    Madras schools have funding trails to some extent. 
    * Saudi madrases are not alternative to secular system -- religion is mandatory curriculum. 
    Jane Wales:
    * amorphous problem
    * new phase entails risk of fall off of support
    * foundation is formidable foe


    Group 10: Brazil: Regional Superpower? - Paolo Sotero (Sao Paolo journalist)
    Group 11: Human Rights: Improving or Not? Jose Vivanco (HRW)
    Group 12: Democracy in Latin America: Real or Apparent? - Howard Wiarda (CSIS)
    Group 13: Hemispheric Migration & Immigration - Susan Martin (Georgetown U)
    Group 14: Megacities and Urbanization - Ellen Brennan-Galvin (UN Population Div.)
    Group 15: Microenterprise: Lending to the Poor-Maria Otero (Accion)
    Group 16: Operations Wrkshp: Relations with State & Congress – Jerry Leach 




    4:30 The Future of Colombia. 
    Colombian Perspective - DCM Juan Orduz Estaban
    American Perspective - Amb. Charles A. (Tony) Gillespie 

    Notes by Prof. Jeremy Lewis, Montgomery Council.

    DCM Juan Esteban Orduz (Colombian charge')

  • Colombia stable economy but divided by Andes - poor south has drugs, illegal Groups. 
  • Pastrano won '98 election on peace - gave dmz over large area & 100K pop. 
  • National Liberation Army newer, blows pipes & electricity. Also narco paramilitary forces are wealthy. 
  • DMZ was in law before Pastrano. 

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    Amb Tony Gillespie (army, diplomat, Colombia 1986, now Scowcroft group)

  • Arrived before M-19 debacle & volcano erupted. Poll showed population sought liberty above all.  Then cocaine became hot topic after Len Bias died.
  • President Barco tried to press narcos but no coherent plan till recently -- and did work with US on Plan Colombia.
  • M19 turned to politics & were shot by paramils.
  • FARC got coca $ & devd good army for a developing country. Demands Vacunas (vaccination)  protection money.
  • Paramilitaries brutal  & reaching further.
  • Economy declined, low confidence in justice system.
  • Hard measures not enough, & justice program lost to Criminal division of Dept - TURNED HARD. money being used for mil eguipment. 
  • Pastrano knows his military cannot take on FARC, ELN & Paramils -- wants to leave ,
  • Orduz - govt has increased army from 15K towards 60K during Plan pgriod. Now bigger than FARC. 

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    Gillespie-- Salvador had 10-1 superiority before  got peace settlement. 



     
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