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Old, elite, empire based diplomacy
ended in 1918 with fall of empires:
"New, open, multilateral diplomacy"
of C20th new powers: reforms but also drawbacks.
expanded to world, parliamentary,
open and public (except negotiations.)
leader-to-leader diplomacy.
multilateral diplomacy: congress system,
global conferences, UN.
Clash of civilizations (Islam v West)
implies political rather than military needs.
Bush's policy, from Jan 2001, was unilateralist
both in tone and substance.
US as sole superpower -- therefore
a hegemon?
dominance: armed forces equal to next
strongest 13 nations.
Wolfowitz, Rumsfeld, now Bush: use
force now against evil, regimes.
others: behave in moderation,
look to future.
France and Germany: return to balace
of power policy, cannot trust hegemon.
Turkey, Saudi, Pakistan -- friendly
regimes at risk from street reaction.
Britain -- Blair may fall from power
unless war won quickly.
Jim Nathan -- even British empire in C19th
wasn't this arrogant, had its Gladstone.
Before 9/11/01: Lack of interest in
environmental (Kyoto) or arms control treaties (ABM), or
war criminals (ICC).
Initial reaction to Sep 11 atrocity
was to use unilateral force.
Pres. Bush's need for moral clarity
in dealing with evil.
No
US nation building (implies UN).
Bush demands "forward leaning" posture,
urgency in building force in Afghanistan.
All presidential speeches on Al Qaeda were
directed towards US public, until the UN speech, Nov 2002.
State Dept under Colin Powell, multilateralist.
CIA's need for intelligence
on Al Qaeda networks required at least multiple bilateral deals (Indonesia,
Pakistan, France, Germany, UK, Syria).
Defense Department's need for forward basing
led to multiple bilateral agreements, e.g. Uzbekistan, Qatar, UAE, Bahrain.
Bush is isolated on his goal.of
action on Iraq being regime change -- even British PM Blair's public
goal has been reduction of Weapons of Mass Destruction, as regime change.
Unilateralism risks winning a war at the expense
of political losses elswhere.
European public reaction to Bush
initially has been unfavorable.
European Union: Iraqi conflict during
expansion and tension.
Foreign Policy:
Tensions with US (e.g., ICC) -- France,
Germany
Partnership with US -- UK, Spain
EU leadership potential -- may be lost
in schism.
History of development
Functional integration (1950s) strong but
narrow
Economic cooperation (1960s - 1970s) broad
but shallower
Single market, Maastricht agreement (1992)
Euro (developed 1992-2002)
Political Integration: (1990s-?): broad
but shallow
Federalism versus Subsidiarity,
Elites pro-European v masses' nationalism
Supranational Commission versus Intergovernmental
Councils.
Eurocrats versus democratic deficit.
EU negotiations are uninspiring politically
Occasional referenda on membership
(political cover for elites?)
Current period like EU's previous decisive
leaps,
e.g. 1989-91 with Fall of USSR.
Enlargement certain -- but nature of
integration?
Collective Sovereignty (federalism)
versus international cooperation (Intergovernmentalism).
15 members rising with new 10 to total
25, reaching to Russian border.
Others waiting: Bulgaria, Romania & Turkey.
Federal institutions: Euro, Central
Bank (ECB), Court of Justice (ECJ).
Germany, Italy (pre-Berlusconi) plus small
countries.
Intergovernmental: foreign policy,
security, defense.
UK, France, Italy (under Berlusconi)
core: "reinvigorated Franco-German couple"
[not looking so good since Feb. 2003 Iraq war issue.]
Democratic Deficit:
Convention on Future of Europe (Giscard)
2002-2003 will plan.
Euro: Stable prices, parity w/ Dollar:
Euro likely to become a global reserve currency.
12 of 15 members joined Eurozone (Not UK,
Sweden & Denmark.)
ENLARGEMENT & REFORM:
Big bang of 10 members 2004, assuming negotiations
conclude on:
budget, agri subsidies, structural-cohesion
(regional) funds
Languages: 21 officially would need
420 combinations of translation.
Few East Europeans speak French =>> English
& German.
Real seats of power at present:
Commission
Council of Ministers
Includes Euro Council (heads) & Council
of Foreign Ministers.
COREPER (15 ambassadors.) -- less effective
if enlarged?
BUT: smalls can veto
on taxation, foreign affairs, spending on infrastructure.
Changing system:
Small countries to grow from 10 to 19
Population will be 2/3 in large countries.
Enlargement tensions:
by 2006, new members may qualify for Eurozone.
economic goals of growth inflation and debt
may vary.
Qualified majority vote must be re-balanced.
French plan of core cabinet & periphery.
Immigration and labor market major tension.
Welfare shrinking, population aging,
low econ. growth
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