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Chinese culture may indicate an energetic
people in need of a better governmental system.
Chinese abroad are industrious, successful,
well travelled and linguistic.
Chinese culture has confucian belief in education,
one key to rapid development.
Origins of post revolutionary system of
China & Taiwan:
1911 Sun Yat-Sen overthrows imperial system,
forms ROC and KMT
1921 CCP founded
1927 civil war breaks out
1934 Mao Zedong leads CCP
1937 Japan invades China
1947 uprising on Taiwan by local Formosans
repressed by KMT from mainland.
1949 Nationalists establish harsh dictatorship
on Taiwan
October 1949, Chinese People's Republic
formed.
Republic of China continued under Chiang
Kai-shek and KMT
1950 Korean War interests US in preserving
Taiwan.
1958-60 Great Leap Forward
1966-76 Great Cultural Revolution
1976 Mao dies
1978 Deng XiaoPing leads CCP
1989 Tiananmen Square protest and massacre
Jiang Zemin heads CCP
1998 President Clinton visited Tiananmen Square
Chinese Atlas of success:
Slightly larger area than US
Population over 1.2 Billion
Total GNP over $1 Trillion
GNP per capita $860 -- but at PPP, $3,600
-- almost Mexico.
Annual growth 8.9%
Exports 1/5 of GDP
1/3 urbanized
Infant mortality 38 /1,000
Life expectancy 71 female, 67 male.
Human development ranking 106th.
United Nations recognizes PRC:
1971 UN security council seat switched
from ROC ro PRC.
one of 5 permanent members, leads third world.
e.g. at 1992 UN Rio Conference on environment
China has MFN status in UN but often contested
over human rights.
China points to it success on subsistence
-- contrast with US homelessness, crime and racism.
Chinese arms sales to nations in conflict
with West cause tension with US
Taiwan's economic development prospered:
US aid, (Madame Chiang a Wellesley graduate,
fine diplomat)
KMT's local land reform and rural development,
attracted foreign investment, export-led growth.
Taiwan became a model NIC by 1970s.
Modernized infrastructure: roads, ports,
health & education systems among best
in world
Taiwan's political development slower:
1975 Chiang died, succeeded by son Chiang
Ching-kuo till 1988.
surprisingly, permitted oppositin and dissert
gave some positions to local Taiwanese.
1988 Taiwanese VP succeeded: Lee Teng-Hui
as head of KMT.
Repealed laws of repression of dissidents
& media censorship
Open multiparty elections from local to island
wide positions.
1996 Lee won 54% in 4 way race.
Advocating independence is no longer treasonous
act.
Atlas of success
One third land of Virginia.
22 million population
84% ethnic Taiwanese, mainland Chinese 14%.
GDP per capita nearly US$15,000
Life expectancy male 74, female 81
Infant mortality only 7 /1,000 live births.
High Literacy 86%
Despite technical state of war, economic trade
with PRC:
negotiations ongoing about possible reunification
limited by wide differences in political and
economic systems.
US Legal Framework: 1979 Taiwan Relations
Act:
US accepted Taiwan as part of China (PRC).
US provided defensive arms to prevent one
China being imposed by force.
US monitors human rights in Taiwan but not
China.
US rep. in Taiwan (AIT) has to sit separately
from diplomatic corps.
Path of Coexistence:
Taiwan has flourished economically since then,
even as trade with the PRC has multiplied.
Path of Nationalism and conflict:
There is always a risk of beating the nationalist
drum in Taiwan -- or in the PRC if it disapproves the winner of an election.
Young Chinese are nationalist rather than
communist.
The US's mistaken bombing of the Chinese embassy
in Belgrade was a difficulty.
So was the Chinese forcing down of a US surveillance
aircraft in spring 2001.
Some Senators want the US to defend Taiwan
from China on a blank cheque system -- very risky.
Congress has found Chinese espionage was active
in the 1990s.
US needs a peaceful and properous PRC -- and
Taiwan continues to be a strategic issue in which the US seeks to
avoid Chinas's angry isolation.
China, social & economic assessment:
despite population control, has 16 Million
increase in population per year.
China may in future need food imports from
the US.
China needs $750 Billion infrastructure, lacks
a national road system, lacks standard railway gauge.
PRC policy is to prime the economy beyond
the "meagre" 8% growth rate.
PLA army (though large) is poorly equipped,
and the AF varies. Neither will threaten the US for some years.
China's rational deployment of power capabilities:
Central foreign policy goal is to prevent
independence of Taiwan.
UN and US also consider Taiwan integral part
of China.
Taiwan's KMT Government since 1949 has claimed
to represent all of China.
KMT took refuge when losing the civil war.
Many Taiwanese now favor independence.
PRC has declared it will wage war if Taiwan
declares independence.
PRC may lack the ability to invade Taiwan,
but could inflict immense damage.
1996 PRC war games, fired missiles over sea
near Taiwan. US responded by sending two aircraft carriers as a warning.
Taiwan's strategy of diplomacy: lobbies
Congress, requests admission to UN and world bodies, grants aid to countries
recognizing Taiwan
(about 27 small, poor nations, half in Caribbean
& Central America).
1999 Taiwan's president declared relations
w/ China would be on a state-by-state basis (closer to independence).
Taiwan has cultivated Panama, invested in
container port, encouraged hiring (T.) guest workers.
Chinese diplomatic reaction:
Breaks relations with countries recognizing
Taiwan.
Punishes any moves toward independence of
Taiwan.
Is a major user of Panama canal, ownership
having reverted from US to Panama in 1999. China leverages panama's
access to port of Hong Kong -- and hints that her ships registrations can
switch from Panama to Bahamas.
Bahamas switched from recognizing Taiwan to
China 1997 after a Hong Kong conglomerate invested in a container port
there.
Two of five vetoes exercised by China in UN
Security Council blocked peacekeeping forces from countries that recognized
Taiwan.
1999 Macedonia (had received $1 Bn Taiwanese
aid.)
But China acts separately on other world issues
did not veto UN Gulf War resolution 1990.
In cold war, balanced between 2 superpowers
claimed to lead the third world during cold
war
Chinese system of government
Dual government: formal institutions
at each level from national down to local are responsible both to the body
above them and to the CCP.
Courts are responsible to legislature,
and hence to CCP.
Informal positions may signify real power:
e.g.
Deng Xiao Ping
Market Leninism of 1990s: economic
freedom without political freedom.
Local and regional governments have
some measure of politics and autonomy.
1999 Falun Gong cult was repressed, but 10,000
protested peacefully.
Some interest in democracy among urban areas
and intellectuals.
China has some favorable conditions for
democracy given its level of income:
low inequality
high literacy
higher industrialization and urbanization
but hardliners could still step in
when economy falters.
Favorable changes under Deng in 1992
and 1997- Jiang Zemin (engineer):
Urban incomes tripled in 1990s.
Foreign trade doubled in 1990s.
National income tripled in 1990s.
decentralization of politics and economics
early 1980s Communes replaced by family
responsibility system
TVEs established in rural areas (township
& village enterprises, factories)
-- though corrupt, and local safety net has
new holes
by 1997, private owned businesses 18% of industrial
output
another 18% from foreign and mixed-ownership
organizations.
Chinese human development indicators almost
at level of Mexico, $3570 per capita.
mandatory retirement age and term limits for
all officials
younger, better educated leaders acceding
increasing role of National People's Congress
competitive elections in rural villages
spread of semiautonmous NGOs.
strengthening and reduced politicization of
legal system
tolerance of wider range of artistic and cultural
expression
new freedom of individuals to be apolitical.
increasingly exposed to global economy and
political trends
Taiwan's 1990s democratization showed
multiparty elections at all levels up to top are compatible with Chinese
culture.
Taiwan held free elections at all levels in
March 2000.
BUT risks for PRC's development:
economic or political stability could result
in coup
disputes between party and people could result
in civil war
increasing class differences could divide
country
separatist movements -- e.g. Tibet
Stability:
Chinese culture is unifying force not
experienced in old USSR.
Chinese elite has always served development,
not simply hogged resources to itself.
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