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Bret Stephens, key points of speech to AWAC, YouTube, 3'
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24 September 2013: Tom Timberman, "Nation Building in Wartime: Why it's Difficult," a trainer/advisor on Iraq/Afghanistan reconstruction.
22 October 2013: Maurice McTigue, "Challenges of the 21st century world," Vice President, Mercatus Center
12 November 2013: Rex Adams, "The State of the World Economy," Chairman, Invesco, Inc.
21 January 2014: Dr. Lawrence Korb, "New Financial Constraints & US Foreign Policy," Senior Fellow, Center for American Progress
25 February 2014: Dr. Itonde Kakoma, "Current African Wars and the State of Ongoing Diplomacy—A View from the Ground," Assistant Director, Jimmy Carter Presidential Center [Images, Hi-Res] [Images, Lo-Res]
15 April 2014: Rep. Donald Manzullo, President, KEI, "The Future of Korea," with Korean & US diplomatic speakers.
13 May 2013: Senior Air War College Instructors, "Report to Alabama" on their recent trips to areas of interest around the globe as part of the AWC Regional and Cultural Studies Program.
NOTES ON SPEAKERS
24 September 2013: Tom Timberman, "Nation Building in Wartime: Why it's Difficult," a trainer/advisor on Iraq/Afghanistan reconstruction
Timberman, a retired foreign service officer, has for 45 years been managing nation building programs in Vietnam, Bosnia, Croatia, Kosovo, Iraq and Afghanistan. Currently a partner is a Washington consulting group, he is chair of the Graham Perry Foundation which serves families of wounded US soldiers.Introduction: Tom Timberman (hereafter, TT) previously visited for invasion of Iraq, first AWAC event, 20 years ago.
Introduction to nation buildingTV interviewer once asked TT asked about Iraqi war as strategy to obtain oil versus State dept. line of merely rescuing Kuwaitis. In service, unable to agree.Early US nation building efforts
Great powers doing nation building for 2000 years, a feature of Roman empire and later European empires, and US involved in it with first colony of Philippines.
In Vietnam, best organization and delivery I have ever seen.
US lowest donor among major countries as percent of GDP, for international development – though we do other stuff too. Data in handout.
Nation building not a popular term in US – other terms more acceptable in congress. Nation coopting term used in small groups – to influence and if possible coopt. Not the money that makes it unpopular but the other things.
After a mistaken year at Westpoint, went to law school and briefly to Wall St. then foreign service.
Vietnam (hereafter, VN) 1968-70.
115 years of nation building (hereafter, NB) but US seems to rediscover it each time.
Human community sharing a common identity is nation – Timberman.
The moment when US forces have stabilized countries and then introduced an enduring democracy. – alternative.
Lucian Pye: NB is diffusion of world culture. (Did not look like that in VN).
NB is what nations do to other countries to get them to do what the donor country wants.1898 begun for US with TR and boss Gen. Leonard Wood founded rough riders in US war on Spain.Recent half-century history of US nation building efforts
NY Times called for a nation brave enough to sort out Cuba. (echo today over Syria).
Governments only source of NB because need taxes to achieve it.
Non Governmental Organizations (hereafter, NGOs) much more focused e.g. Gates foundation on education or health. Governments try to serve cosmos of country to make it stable ally with democracy.
Roman empire a global organization that needed more bureaucrats abroad because Roman staff not enough for colonies. Coopted selected slaves and taught them Latin, trained them for administration, later becoming citizens. Some locals observed and wrote down, and centuries later used the same tactics against the Romans.
US history of nation building from 1898.
TR encouraged Gen Wood to become Government of Cuba, had congress declare that US would not stay long but would provide health, education. Wood successful and left for Philippines in 4 years but country was not stable and US revisited a number of times.
McKinley president, Sec Navy took time off at time of war fever with Spain. TR alerted Commodore Dewey to the impending war with Spain, congress passed declaration of war with Spain. President surprised with Dewey’s message delivering the Philippines.
First Government of Philippines declared US only ever US colony, but prepared them to govern themselves. Arthur MacArthur followed by Will Howard Taft who concentrated on democratic institutions. Despite coups and other problems, democratic institutions and missionary work proceeded. Path breaking because US had to innovate. 10,000 constables who fought Japanese alongside US even after US surrendered and continued guerrilla and intelligence activities from hills.In VN US did not refer to older experience, developed from 100 advisers and Bob “Blowtorch” Comer, convinced LBJ to create a NB organization, civil-military in each province to work intimately with VN people – unlike modern rivalry, inability to work together. William Colby replaced Comer and later DCI. Experts in urban planning etc., tailored programs to localities – not done since. AID much smaller now and supervises contracts with NGOs. They take off the shelf programs, not customized, and NGOs hire local labor to implement. Has not worked since VN.Conclusions
TT wrote Hamlet Evaluation system, evaluated each local program – fallacy with Sec Defense aligned with technology, who decided (2500 officers) team leaders would rate the level of pacification for each village, so each officer rated it slightly higher than predecessor to show progress -- inflation led to total pacification, despite continuing war.
Vietnam gold standard, Iraq silver, and Afghan no standard at all.
2003 planning invasion of Iraq, army found old records of civil-military reconstruction teams, put in charge sub officers and AF pilots – no army officer serving in combat zone was going to serve in civil programs.
2006 Military said to WH need civilians for NB, because need COIN strategy. But few in civilian agencies would take assignments to these teams.
Nov 2007 most embarrassing moment, when Condi Rice as Sec + DG of foreign service decided to get tough and direct foreign service officers to go to teams or resign. Huge mistake because had invited media who saw senior officers revolt, to the point where security had to be called. Officers in military around TT (embedded in a combat brigade) in Iraq could not conceive of such rebellion, but then Condi Rice reversed herself. Only 8 volunteered to be team leaders, so TT was recalled to service to fill out the required 10. Sea change in expectations of staff – some even sued Sec State.Major problems? Not money, always available in a war zone. Lack of understanding of the selfish operation of NB, so congress does not authorize. Lack of strong competent agency to implement. No agencies prepared for expeditionary assignments as duty – need to reinsert not just the legal basis (still there) but the leadership basis.Question Time
No US desire now to do programs linked to political development. AID was a target of Representatives, reduced from 60,000 to 1200 staff and now only function as contract supervisors.
Why can’t we just learn? Why rely on disciplined military instead of civilians qualified to do so. I have already volunteered for Syria (humor).Throwing money down rat hole only because not doing it competently – not because it is a worthless project.
Nation building or nation renovation? Agreed with questioner about difficulty of NB and the term renovation. Military good at building infrastructure but does not have expertise beyond that. Physical construction shows on standard data reports. Dept. Ag is capable on ground though eradicating poppy cultivation was misguided.
One problem is US recreating American experience but in C16th conditions. 23M of Afghans live in villages, terrain impossible, except around Kabul. Isolated; 90% of villagers did not know who was President of Afghan, even in 2010. One villager thought TT was a Soviet because a foreigner.
We took cookie cutter plan for a strong central government – Afghan has never had one. This was not 1860 in Europe; 80% of population was illiterate – astronomically dumb plan. Religion a secondary aspect; the social organization is based on human relationships – they are puzzled because not understanding the concept of a constitution. Trusting a government unseen or allegiance to a paper document rather than local person did not make sense to them. Loyalty of man to family is highest Afghan moral imperative – so lecturing on corruption is not received well. Duty to protect and advance members of family.
Was told to stop lecturing about corruption in MD, because US policy is to project pristine image abroad, no matter how unrealistic.
Afghan future? General consensus is that it will collapse when US troops withdraw. Did achieve education especially for women, data are amazing from 3,000 in schools under Taliban to a million now. Especially grade schools plus American U in Kabul with many women students. 2 generations have grown up under presence of W Euros and US staff; had worked with many under 35s who had taught themselves languages where schooling not available. Skilled youth do not want to leave Afghan, interested in staying to form a political movement; still in touch and have formed youth associations.
Besides education, US nation building efforts have affected the ambitions of a generation and a half of youth.
22 October 2013: Maurice McTigue, "Challenges of the 21st century world," Vice President, Mercatus Center
NZ has performance bonus for civil servants finding waste.Purpose of being elected is to do a job– should not be deterred by bad press. More should act like soldiers. Mrs. Thatcher not an easy lady to work with – but first campaigned to put Great back in Great Britain. On re-election, RWR won every state but 1. Both Benazir Bhutto and Indira Gandhi were assassinated, but leaders take consequences. Churchill, when set back, said he was happy to get 75% done.
Top of Page
12 November 2013: Rex Adams, Chairman, Invesco, Inc.
• Chairman and director of Invesco Ltd, a worldwide investment company with clients in 150 countriesNot CEO but Chair of Board of Investors
• Served as dean of Fuqua School of Business at Duke University
• Had 30-year career with Mobil Corporation
• Served as chairman of Public Broadcasting Service (PBS)Crash caused by excess leverage, mortgage sector in US, Ireland, Spain. Unsustainable credit markets, collapse of Lehman brothers …INVESCO helping clients manage portfolios.
Central banks’ emergency measures + fiscal stimulus from government (eg US TARP) to facilitate unwinding of leverage. Quantitative Easing followed, Federal Reserve and Bank of England. US $800 M >> $3 T, Treasuries <2%.
System of financial repression to drive towards longer term investment, away from risky assets. Long term rates did lower & housing in US market.
Improved bank balances without the inconvenience of taxes. Trickle-down economics did nothing to tackle the inequality of incomes.Trend away from active fund management to alternative products such as property. Increasing use of computer trading – over 50% of trades now. Invesco in 9/10 largest markets, with clients in 100 countries, $45 B of assets, mostly outside US.United States
Need knowledge of most economies of world.Invesco expects of US in 2014 2% growth with 2% inflation (more conservative than most analysts) with some volatility of bonds. Evidence is that US is growing less compelling because of political dysfunction.Eurozone less optimistic.
US in 1970-2012 declining attraction to FDI as corporate spending cut back but profit margins improved and there were share buybacks. $1.7 T surplus capital is held offshore to defer US taxes, because [nominal] corporate tax rate at 35% is the highest in world, a major drag on US competitiveness for investors.
Fracking and horizontal drilling are leading a US breakout, with low energy costs, helped the US current account trade balance. Helped especially the petroleum industry but too soon to know how sustainable this is.Mario Draghi stated in 2010 would do anything to hold the bond market up. The Euro rose against the dollar and the yen. Spain and Ireland achieved a trade surplus - but despite these positive indicators, Eurozone has a way to go. ECB will do much more serious audits than prior ‘stress tests’. Banks are still holding much bond debt instead of writing it down. Eurozone lending to institutions is falling.Japan:
Adjustment has barely begun.
Basel3 capital requirements will exacerbate this because national banks will have to put money with ECB, “shooting themselves in foot”. Greece, Cyprus and Italy are hopeless cases.
Germany has more energy costs and nonperforming loans.
UK GBP has appreciated but exports and output are stuck – UK doesn’t make anything to sell. Unemployment stands high, also inflation. Bank of England bought bonds, about 20% of GDP. Financial sector still unable to use the funds. Mortgage rates down 1% point and house prices are up; new mortgage numbers and retail and car sales indicators are all up. Consumer demand should raise business.20 years of stagnation but Abe administration is expected to achieve 2% growth – though inflation will miss the target. QE driving down the Yen and stimulating business, three arrows of Abenomics. Debt is 245% of GDP, the highest in developed world.BRICS:
Abe proposes a sales tax increase for revenue of 8 T Yen, for public works. Outlook is uncertain because of high debt. Population is aging and shrinking because Japan limits immigration. Energy costs are high because of shut down nuclear plants. There is manufacturing competition from China and South Korea.
Brazilhas spectacular growth under Lula da Silva, exports being especially rising. Stock market rose 4x in 2 terms. Economy suffered since, falling from 7.5% growth down to 1% recently. Inflation rose to 6% (evoking memories of hyperinflation). Poor public services, slums, unimproved roads, poor education system, no new airports. Public pensions are extravagant, receive 70% of pay at 54 years old. Widespread corruption. 2014 World Cup, then Olympics – funding stadiums. Oil discovery is only good sign; Petrobras though, argued for 5 years over penal terms for foreign oil companies – even though Brazil lacks domestic capability and only one consortium bid on the fields. Batista’s 10 Bbl reserve was empty, and reserves will not be cash positive for 5-10 years. Invesco does NOT invest in Brazil (alone among top ten markets).RussiaOil and gas supply 50% of federal budget; now deficit on trade balances; Putin lowered the growth target and stimulus from rainy day fund. Population is aging and declining, life expectancy is low and judiciary is a problem. Large population is under-served by consumer goods, though education is good and the workforce is competitive with Europe.IndiaGrowing population >1B, fractious politics and corrupt bureaucracies. GDP growth above 9% a year, helped by reforms by the Singh administration, though now faltering. Deficit is 49% of GDP and FDI is lacking. India has backtracked in opening to foreign finance. Walmart has given up on investing there. The Congress party has no business-friendly leader, but the outcome of elections is uncertain. New ex-IMF economist now at Indian Central Bank, is raising rates to control inflation. The “licence Raj” reigns.ChinaReally a category to itself. New leaders are in place, the population is aging and shrinking, though competitive on labor cost with Vietnam and others. Growth is slowing, and the export model has diminishing returns. SOEs return has declined, a classic case of capital destruction. Misallocation of capital is problem. Rates are held by government; smaller banks are ‘troubled’ by this which helps the large banks which have government guarantees. There is talk of a free Trade zone in Shanghai. A recent report by Merrill Lynch on central banks boosting shows it ran up equity market but did not cause much growth. Be very careful in 2014.Question TimeFracking technology surmounting problem of contaminants? I do not see the US becoming energy independent, but less dependent. Environmental tensions are always there with the oil industry, unless you own the land. E.g. shale oil in Pennsylvania where the locals want the royalties.
Russia modernizing despite the dependency on extraction industry? Have to fix the local corruption and public health problems (alcohol & tobacco). Have an educated workforce; need new foreign technology; problem of being run by oligarchs like the Mob.
Five-year odds of emerging from economic difficulties? Can pull out of institutional problems, but the EU sickness is driving down Japan. US political trouble is holding the economy back, and we need a new generation of politicians around the world [best applause].
Wildcards? Most are negative. The Middle East remains a tinder box. US policy is not helpful. Rise of Iran needs to be fixed. South Africa is no longer hopeful, owing to labor strife and street protest. Brazilian politics is a mess. Political risk generally is a serious wildcard.
Transatlantic partnership? One of the most hopeful developments is the relations among the EU, US and Canada. The CAP is still anathema to US farmers.
China? Some argue China should lead the effort to dethrone the US dollar as the reserve currency, but no other currency is likely because of the rich nature of the US economy. The Euro needs more effort on viability.
21 January 2014: Dr. Lawrence Korb, "New Financial Constraints & US Foreign Policy," Senior Fellow, Center for American Progress
Senior Fellow at American ProgressIntroduction to speaker:
Senior Advisor to Center for Defense Information
Former Director of National Security Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations
Former Dean, Graduate School of Public and International Affairs
Former Assistant Secretary of Defense for Manpower, Reserve Affairs, Installations, and LogisticsForemost expert of civil military relations, managed most of military budget in Reagan administration. Chair of policy studies recently at CFR for a long term. Has served in academic jobs and Raytheon. Now at Center for American Progress (CAP).Prepared remarks:Cannot spend for every contingency.So how to alter strategy to fit?
Defense budget was agreed recently and defense to receive sum ($500 Bn?) higher than that spent in cold war ($470 Bn in real terms) and post Vietnam $430 Bn.
RWR first term budget went up but in second term deficit forced it down 10% under Gramm Rudman Hollings law. Now a similar situation. First time had a second budget for war fighting, a supplemental. Raised issue for military as to what should include in that. Obama asked for $540 Bn but it was cut $20 Bn; then McCain found missile defense in supplemental. Game of placing other lines into supplemental.
Military compensation increasing percentage of budget, including $430 / year for medical. Stable for many years. Murray/Ryan deal to end the sequester : military age retirees not going to get the COLA until 62 years old.
Procurement process is out of control.
Korb worked for the Reagan, Bush & Obama campaigns. Said focus on Dep. Sec. of Defense. Eg for Rumsfeld was Wolfowitz; known well but [not an organizer by nature]. Littoral combat ship example of program where only 3 of planned 32 were built for the price.
David Packard ran the business side of Defense well; GM executives have run it well; but academics not a good preparation.
Will have to modernize all three legs of the triad simultaneously, and part of budget for nukes is in DOE. Will cost $350 Bn over 10 years. Personnel costs also – but budget will stay flat.
Sequester was spread over departments but compromise falls into difficulty of current Republican party being isolationist, like Taft -- not Eisenhower. Rand Paul, like Taft jr., does not like any kind of government. So $520 for DOD for next decade.Classic issue going to Ike period, balanced budget and military would get remainder. Budget did go up in last 2 years after sputnik. JFK increased DOD, but RMN used military savings to increase domestic initiatives. Mark Shields (PBS commentator): RMN was our last liberal president.Question Time
Army is service most in trouble – not sending large forces to Syria, Egypt, like Nixon doctrine which was no more landwars in Asia – not going.
Odierno said recently reserves are not that good; but army will be down to 420,000 and reliant on guard & reserves; reserves did well in Iraq and Afghan. Politically, bet on guard (as shown by A-10 procurement, USAF could not kill it). Cutting down on nuclear weapons, lessens conflict. Triad a good insurance policy and land based not expensive. Will go down to 1,000 nukes, likely. Should not say are pivoting to Asia, affects others elsewhere. Strategy of Air-Sea battle not a good term because makes it to obvious to Chinese they are target. Air-Land-Battle under Nixon outraged Navy who demanded 600 ships. But not likely to send large land armies into third world. Navy and AF will be on top. 11 carriers required by law (unlike air wings) but new Ford class carrier is over budget and will not keep 11 carriers.
We do not have an existential threat. Terrorists have different agendas from each other – not the same. T is still weapon or tactic of weak. Africa – French in there and we have forces in Somalia, + AFRICOM. No equivalent of Soviet Union. DOD hoped sequester would not happen, but then hit by lack of travel, by furloughs – and will affect compensation. USAF will get F35 but navy does not want it – prefer later and more cost effective version of FA18. Marines will be all right, have wide respect. Should ask before ordering action about the cost of doing it.
How to develop cyber defense - with reserves?We have done it with Stuxnet, ourselves. I would not keep NSA and cyber command together but it looks as though president will do it. Whatever you think of DOD, they do get things done compared to other agencies. Should emphasize defensive war games rather than going on offense.Intelligence costs & surveillance scandal?
Deficit peaked in 2009, last months of Bush administration. Raised taxes under Reagan with Social Security tax increase. Need to means test Medicare – not pay expenses for rich. Should not keep kicking cans down road. Roads need maintenance, Ike’s proudest achievement.About $70 Bn, public now. ODNI was not given full power over budget, and Panetta at CIA was able to overrule in early years of office. In Iraq cannot get perfect intelligence. Gen. Tony Zinni, in Desert Fox when launched cruise missiles, pointed out if you don’t where Iraqi missiles are you can’t attack them.If China making carriers obsolete, what to build?
Clapper denied to Rand Paul that NSA spied; someone must be in charge of intelligence.Destroyers better use, and build 17 littoral combat ships.Unilateral action?
Carter doctrine to keep open sea lanes for oil – other countries free riders but now Chinese have common interest in oil flowing.After 9/11 W. Bush policy was unilateral if we can, multilateral if we must. Now the reverse – US flew the French to Mali.Effects of Gates book?Harmful in a number of ways. Family of serving soldiers hurt if sons served in vain; don’t say criticize Karzai even when true. When Korb in RWR, Gates oriented towards predicting worst case; book will give him reputation he deserves. Harold Brown and Mel Lair did not write memoirs till after 2000. Criticism of Hillary Clinton [acting political] while being a great Secretary of State – why criticize a politician on those grounds?Procurement of new fighter plane?Navy wants FA 18 E&F for half price of F35 – but problem was concurrent development of projects. We developed Apache for attacking the 5,000 Russian tanks – what is the target of the new aircraft? Army will comply with SecDef, USAF eventually, navy however ignores. Navy does not want F35; but would have to be told to choose between F35 and keeping the carriers.
25 February 2014: Dr. Itonde Kakoma, Assistant Director, Carter Center, "Current African Wars and the State of Ongoing Diplomacy—A View from the Ground"
—Assistant Director of Conflict Resolution Program at Carter Center in AtlantaIntroduction of speaker
—Manages Center’s peace initiatives in Sudan and South Sudan
—Briefs international community on political and security affairs in region
—Played key role in peace initiatives in Liberia
—Currently guest editor for the Journal of Religion, Conflict, and PeaceWorks with President Carter in mediation; extraordinary that private citizens in NGOs can achieve so much in Africa, the continent with the high growth rates.Prepared remarks
IntroductionKey issues of the small world of the Carter Center[Sudanese separation]
President Carter: war is the greatest human rights violation. Conflict resolution as pursuit of human rights.
Carter pressed for ICC statute.
Work involves working with individuals who may be involved in gross violations of human rights. Seeking balance of Justice with Peace. Spent much of November-January talking with all parties, particularly with those who can affect the lives of many. Gen. Bashir for example is under indictment of ICC and on basis of Rome statute, many governments refuse to communicate directly with the leader of Sudan. Our own country uses it as a pretext for non-communication with Bashir. That tension between justice and peace may not be easy for us, we will meet with those needed for peace
Thabo Mbeki and a prominent academic coauthored an op-ed piece in the NY Times, concluding courts cannot solve civil wars, a critique of the ICC intrusion into politics.On 9 July 2011, the Republic of South Sudan was created; independence was the fruit of a long struggle and the culmination of the 2005 peace agreement, mediated by the former head of the Kenyan military. In the event that the unity of Sudan cannot be made attractive, it read, then the people will be granted a referendum on self-determination. The referendum therefore indicated that unity was not achieved. Independence did not mean peace – a contrast with the euphoria of January 2011 when Sudanese politicians were almost competing to nominate Bashir for a Nobel peace prize. The ICC is important for process of achieving just societies - but here the former enemies were upholding Bashir. The post ICC world is different.[After independence day]South Africa saw Mandela and De Klerk together at the end of the negotiations - but it is different in South Sudan. Mutual destruction was the policy of the Sudanese after independence, trying to destabilize government including the lifeline of oil, 97% of South Sudan's revenue. South cut off its own source of revenue in order to hurt the North. That culture of antagonism has changed, and it is seen that the viability of one is the viability of the other. Bashir and Kir, both presidents, were actually working together - though whether they have the support of other leaders is another question. In Dec. 2013 South Sudan was imploding; violent conflicts erupting, but by December 2014, level of conflict became worrisome for a rebel leader, claiming ethnic discrimination, emerged to topple South regime. A 30 year culture of war, furnished a current climate of extreme hostility.[Attempts at intervention]EGAD agency for eastern and northern Africa quickly convened, appointed special envoys and convened meetings - but did not have a concerted strategy for neighboring regimes. Ugandan troops did secure the airport and secure displaced people - but they maintained a presence in location, worrying the South government because of history of interventions and proximity to oil fields. This is a problem of putting party above nation. Hard to find any ideology in rebellion, lack of vision for nation building is a problem. Stuffing pockets with resources and self interest in political power are prevalent. Crisis of Blue Nile along borders of South Sudan; Nuba mountain people felt had not shared the benefits of the peace agreement. Attempts to disarm led to conflict in Nuba mountains. Logic of war internally will not bring about sustainability; form of government including armed groups, may be emerging.Question time
Three key factors: borders, identity and resource wars.
Various tribal related conflicts, but part of Sudan is an ancient land with even older pyramids than found in Egypt, so history of periods of these conflicts is lengthy. Who is a southerner is both a legal and a cultural question. Territorial issue of South is partly based on colonial times, but most were non-Arab peoples, so there is an ethnic identity but some of those groups also found in North. South is majority Muslim, and role of religion not only in society but also in governing nation is an issue. Used to have a sharia law system but autonomous South was not under Sharia, was partly Christian and made up of multiple nations, somewhat like Ethiopia.Oil in South Sudan as proportion of Sudan's total?Vast majority of oil is in South, the flood plain of the Nile. Egypt is utterly dependent on Nile for its existence. Economists are waiting on fertile and underdeveloped South , for there is potential.Nation building realistic for Sudan with infrastructure building?Infrastructure and more than that. National vision and infrastructure may follow from that. Unified Sudan was no longer on table, but vision of what nation building will entail has not been developed. Does not have roads, consistent access to water - real problems, but access to basic goods and services is even more important than ability to express grievances.Risk of genocide?There are still targeted killings in South; recognized as problem by EU and UN, and Netherlands speaker from the Hague argued some of actions might be war crimes. When does ICC-type language and action jeopardize resolving conflict?Oil revenue sharing agreement and planned pipeline financed by Chinese?A challenge. Just before 15 Dec 2013 when crisis erupted, South Sudan hosted international investment conference - but 2 weeks later South erupted. Courting business partners, but questions of transparency and corruption. Environment has not been conducive to investment. If referendum is on self determination of individuals - but whether same philosophy applies to internal politics is an issue. Any form of sustainable peace in South will require a national conversation . Oil revenue sharing is a very difficult issue; there have been post conference talks, facilitated by a high level panel. Have attempted to face unresolved issues. Borders have not been agreed, oil sharing has not been agreed; citizenship has not been settled; security had not been resolved - independence euphoria neglected these arrangements. Agreements have been laid down on all except security - delayed by cessation of support to one another's rebels. Oil has been flowing again, and both sides know it hurts them if it is shut down. Chinese agreed to step in to build port in Kenya. This cost is projected to be too expensive when reserves are expected to be depleted in a decade. So, this is a political decision rather than an economic one.Water issue of use in Nile susceptible to legal structure?Nile river initiative. Laws from period under Anglo Egyptian condominium. Hard position of Egypt in holding onto colonial law, is now shifting to support of renaissance dam in Ethiopia because it will benefit Sudan also. Water will be major concern for military - great lakes region of Africa recently prone to threat of war over islands and gas resources present.More specifics on comprehensive peace agreement? What about the Why? (causal) questions?
CPA partners signed off on agreement even with recognized issues - need to answer Why? Questions, after 6 decades of bloodshed?Would recognize value of a roundtable here, because of expertise of audience. Troika of US, UK and Norway had focus and purpose - but post independence saw none of this focus on need for sustained investment. Constantly in limbo because of US foreign policy towards Sudan - not in interests of US or Sudan to see destabilization. Worst spoiler now is Khartoum. Shortsighted relation to Khartoum - why would US want to leave the country isolated, knowing how it can destabilize region. Needs constructive engagement.Secession within South?Sectarianism is long part of human history, and conventional wars are not the principle concerns now - but sectarian and secessionist movements are common now. Can governing systems get back to managing diversity? Democratic process means allowing some group to win for at least one term.
15 April 2014: President Manzullo, KEI, "The Future of Korea," with Korean diplomatic speakers.
Korea Economic Institute, Facebook pageIntroduction by Grant Hammond, USAF Center for Strategy and Technology
A three-person panel of experts will address political, security, economic, and financial issues pertaining
to the Korean Peninsula, and U.S.–Korea relations.
—Former Congressman Donald Manzullo, President of the Korea Economic Institute
—Bridget Lines, Korea Desk Officer, U.S. State Department
—June, a lawyer who facilitates contacts between SK and US businesses
Rep. ManzulloKEI in Washington DC has 8 FT employees, established 31 years ago to make closer the alliance between the two countries.Bridget Lines is from Korea desk at Department of State, newcomer of 8 months, with several years of experience in Afghanistan including 1 year alongside ROK provincial reconstruction team (300 SK troops training police, & managing hospital. Counterpart in SK embassy now was on that team in Parwan Afghanistan. 2003 was 60th anniversary of US-SK relationship.
6 Party simulation talks, with 3,700 students, role playing, representing 6 countries in talks.
Academic paper series, publishing and presenting in Washington DC. Manzullo on Foreign Affairs Committee of HR, interested in car manufacturing. SK began with only 18 PhDs in whole of country postwar, but now 5th largest manufacturing industry, growth now 3.9% (considered low by SK standards).
40 years ago President Park called in 2 friends to develop shipping and car building - they took one each. SK has 3 of largest shipbuilding companies - but created from scratch with no experience since 1519 (when defeated Japanese with ironclad ships).
400 Korean students now in AL; spending $5.5M.
Hyundais building in AL with imported parts.Economically US-SK FTA $130 Bn annually, brings down prices for consumers in both countries.Diplomatically milestones in 2014 were President Park’s trip to DC and VP Biden’s trip to SK, with Obama trip in near future.June ____ is a partner in Atlanta firm, with clients in AL, drives 30,000 miles per year. Troy University education studies and taught Troy elementary school then middle school in Georgia; now facilitates transactions between business in Alabama and SK.
SK in Iraq as well as Afghan. Cooperation on issues ranging from humanitarian assistance to climate change.
Combined effort to respond to threat of NK and denuclearization. No daylight between President Park and Obama administration.
No signs that NK is to become a responsible member of international community. Launched 2 SRBMs and 4 LRBMs. Plutonium reactor slowly developing. NK has not lived up to commitments especially to denuclearize. Will not tolerate NK as a nuclear state. Diplomats have travelled to partners in Asia recently in support of SK relations. SK-NK has risen to top of list of discussions with China. Shift in attitude of China towards NK is real.
Highlights human rights in NK, commission established to report on HR in NK provided irrefutable evidence of crimes against humanity. Amb. Davies working now to follow up and ensure world shares concerns with NK. Bound together by shared values of democracy, peace along border.How to do business with different cultures. Communication more than facts make or break transactions. Cars, students with high tests scores, restaurants. People expect different things, that you will think like I do (like Mars/Venus distinction). Not rational to expect other nation to speak, think and have body language like you.Question Time
We have difficulty understanding Korean way of thinking and doing business. Korean companies now being sued by employees, in news. Koreans have to adjust to being sued by employees and former employees. Korean employers may find Americans are not good workers. Articles show Korean managers are top down - if boss even looks at something, it gets done. US workers seen as not seen as hard workers - when finished for day, expect not to help neighbor but in SK you naturally get helped by neighbor.
Education helps relations; Koreans impatient notoriously but must be patient with them. Told own children to travel far from home when unattached, to learn from others, then come home if choose.
Koreans can be very genuine and loyal friends.
Zone of business joint of NK and SK? Will work until leader in NK stops everything.
Best negotiators in world were from NK because irrational?Rational actor in development of weapons programs that are in violation of UNSC resolutions. Years of broken promises, South not willing to return to negotiations until steps are taken by North towards denuclearization.Is there a danger of SK overreactng to NK provocation, and how is SK reaction different from US reaction?
Probability of NK regime collapse?
Kim Jong Un's power consolidated by removal of uncle. You never really now with NK what will happen, but US committed to defense of SK. Unknown variables in NK, so US always on alert.SK not reacting irrationally to NK - e.g. NK torpedoed corvette, but SK [merely] stated this was unacceptable - did not overreact. During recent confrontation, people in Seoul were going about their shopping as usual, not living in fear. Used to this as normal. China funds NK and supplies power. China is talking to NK about not detonating the fourth bomb test.Reintegrating North to SK society bigger problem than with Germany?
US on same page with President Park, laying groundwork of building trust by steps. She has policy speech in Germany on reunification there, and saying it is in SK's interest of gradualism, not overreacting to NK actions.
Regional effort close allies with NK-China. Old problem - so not overreacting to incidents.Cultural differences. SK more than 10x economy of NK - much bigger gap than with W&E Germany. Still, a good idea for Korea to reunify.Korean managers and American workers in US plants - should there be American middle managers?Agreed, but happening slowly.What can be offered to NK to give up nuclear weapons and military power?
Koreans stay here only 3-5 year, so once they learn US ways, they have to return.
Korean grammar is almost the opposite, with verb at end of sentence. Managers shy of managing in English and know their language is not good. Encouraging change but not happening fast enough.They have clearly decided that nuclear weapons are essential for survival. Trying to convince them that nuclear weapons not needed for survival, providing incentives; can end international isolation and improve economic prospects and rejoin the international community. Nuclear weapons making it more difficult for NK to survive.Who really wants reunification? China and US do not seriously want reunification - hence a distant possibility.TB affects many in NK, so President Park reaching out to stop the scourge of TB (disease does not respect DM). Trying to bring together people of NK and SK in other ways with Nutrition programs. Reunification provides hope for SK dreams.What have we done for economic relations and how can we improve?
Lack of interest in reunification among younger generation that has not grown up with any relatives in NK, and have great jobs, benefitting from 60 years of economic development.2 years of FTA as controversial in both countries, and successfully expanded trade though US imports far more than exports but removing coal and corn in two years of SK during slower growth, numbers still looked good. SK agriculture did not die as feared from American imports.Marriage and women in SK culture: what will change in next decade over work ethic of SK managerial men, working late and dining together, Russia, US and SK have highest divorce rates?SK average hours worked per year is much above US. However, Gallup survey found among engaged workers (highest category) SK only at 11%, whereas US highest in world at 30% of workers engaged in work (associated positively with having time for family). Promotion based on seniority; and evaluation based on team work is difficult.
Problem of men working excessive hours away from family is much more difficult in SK than among SK workers here. Do not see their children M-F, play golf with business partners on Sat and only the good ones see kids on Sunday. Families from SK working in America say finally we have family time. Invite Korean family to your home and show them how good American husbands are.
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15 May 2013: Air War College Instructors "Report to Alabama" on their recent trips to areas of interest around the globe as part of the AWC Regional and Cultural Studies Program.Senior Air War College (AWC) instructors report on their recent trips as part of the AWC Regional and Cultural Studies Program.Introduction by Gen. Cleveland
Moderator & Presenter: Dr. Mark Conversino, Dean: Russia and Estonia
Presenter: Dr. David Sorenson, Professor: Turkey and Morocco
Presenter: Dr. Martin Loicano, Assistant Professor: Vietnam and CambodiaSponsored by Morgan Stanley (members present were recognized) and David Thrasher.Dr. Mark Conversino, Dean: Russia and Estonia
Honor flights co-founder Dr. Ed Mullins was recognized.
Dr. Mark Conversino, moderator, planned on Russia & Ukraine, but (owing to recent tensions on border) unable to enter Ukraine and moved to Estonia.Even though did not enter Ukraine, it colored the whole field study. Putin's Eurasian project: Eurasian trade union and restore Soviet empire. Ukraine has always been the brass ring. US government cancelled most events for tour, though embassies managed to save some events. Students were exposed to media including Russia Today, which is very slick and gives impression [humorously] US Navy Seals are responsible for the unrest in Ukraine.
First day in St. Petersburg consulate there was a crowd outside and we were quickly shepherded into consultate for a rundown on events. Detained and questioned by FSB as to why there and when leaving. Estonians very nervous, NATO allies and ... photos from Radio Europe of Kiev riots. Russian troops had 29,000 troops in Crimea protecting the black sea fleet, plus those on border with Ukraine.
Claimed 1700 polling stations, claimed 80% turnout, but voters had no privacy and armed pro-Russian observers could see how they voted. Therefore, referendum was merely a clown act. Crimea has been annexed outright to Russian Federation and Putin drove home the point by visiting to celebrate. Corrupt Yanokovoic, leader of Ukraine . Putin projects self as protector of Russian speakers wherever found (most of Eastern Ukraine. Belarus is a fictional country, not universally recognized - but Estonia is in NATO as is Latvia. Across river in Estonia, tidy houses and streets contrast with poverty and mess on Russian side of border. Transnestria, breakaway republic of Moldova, where Russians are handing out Russian passports, and 1500 Russian troops remain from the soviet days. If Putin takes on NATO with his eyes open, that is way history is made But if does so unintentionally ... [fault of West for not setting boundaries on action].
Lithuania now patrolled by aircraft from NATO countries.
Putin level of approval in Ukraine ranging from 20% in West and 76% in East. Over 80% in Russia. Putin has now guaranteed that rest of Ukraine is anti-Russian.
Dr. David Sorenson, Turkey & Morocco.No happy news about Turkey, some challenges. Also went to Morocco for Q&A.Dr. Martin Loicano, Vietnam & Cambodia
Met with all four parties, all four papers, military leaders -- except those in prison.
Turkey has modern military, large force with modern equipment, trading partner with US and aspirant to enter EU.
Highest number of jailed journalists in world, now rated Not Free by international association of Journalists. Increasingly authoritarian, repressive. Most of senior Mil officers are now in prison on trumped up charges of a coup. Ones we talked to were frightened to talk to us. Fastest growing economy in Europe, unlike Greek rivals. Ankara and Istanbul have new skyscrapers but based on easy money and some corruption. Turkey in tough neighborhood near Russia, with borders with Syria, Iran, Iraq, Armenia, Georgia as well as Bulgaria. Thousands of Arabic speaking Syrians there now. 9% of world's trade goes through Bosphorus -- mostly under Russian flags. Could be dangerous since Turkey is a NATO partner. Atatturk secular, reformed Turkey, modernity over religion. Erdogan PM and soon likely President. First to run under Islamist party banner, increasingly repressive style of government; now turning against prosecutors. Still a democracy, but repressive. Took picture of pro-Russian demonstration -- then of police suited up to beat up the crowd. Gazi park demos were ostensibly pro-environmentalist but really pro-secular government; Gazi park was empty because protests repressed. Opposition leaders jailed along with journalists and military officers.
Challenges for US because of location, neighbors and NATO.Son of PM is a General in Cambodia – a sign of nepotism. Smaller countries stuck between rock of China and hard place of US. Forced to align with one or other, though trying to balance between them. Russia wishes to reoccupy old bases, and US has asked for Cam Ranh Bay - always met with smiles but no acceptance.Question Time:
Security dilemmas seem small but are not. Smaller states can potentially back the major powers into war. Vietnamese American voters put Jim Webb in VA into Senate office - are influential in US politics. Aso trying to influence VN economy. Trade larger now as partners, clothing, coffee and rice for examples. US not going to leave VN to Chinese, not an option. VN a bellwether, people extremely pro-US, very surprising. Has grown over time. Vietnamese-American population growing here and so are family contacts.
One party system of CPVN, gravitates more towards China - so contrast with people on streets. CP, military also owns large part of economy. Two of very few Marxist-Leninist countries left in world. Sense of inevitability of VN about living with Chinese influence for centuries.
Cambodia also one party state but squarely in US camp. Requested deuce and half trucks for military - State Dept gave them stacks of regulations and human rights advice -- but Chinese then sent them large number of free, new trucks with few conditions. Chinese got some basing and acted quickly. Cambodia now firmly in Chinese camp. VN has little control or money - but in Cambodia, Chinese hiring unemployed people. Vietnam claims defending maritime boarder and islands, heavy propaganda in cities on behalf of forces; people do continue to protest. Rapid urbanization, so 1 million people move to city with need for work and Chinese can respond with job creation much more quickly than US can.
Fishing disputes important because staple diet for the small countries - and large Chinese fishing operations can cause shortages and affect the local diet. After water cannon attacks between coastguards of both countries. Resource stress, China taking water from Mekong delta, that may cause starvation in SVN in some years. Salt water encroaching on all these areas, and some areas previously visited are now under water. Rice farmers had to switch to less profitable seafood business.
How can US help SE Asia from China's pressure, using simple direct techniques to buy off elites, when most of population favors US instead. Most explosive of these regions for long term.
Is US in ‘hurry up and hold’ mode? Can US counter these problems or must wait for next presidential election?Conversino: not a matter of US elections. For example, getting Europeans to impose economic sanctions on Russia is not easy. Russian leadership follows our politics, and Chinese following too. Media coverage of these trouble spots is lacking.Would Europeans keep sanctions in place till Crimea returned?
Sorenson: all countries in region agree on no Kurdistan so could only talk about Kurdish areas. In some areas Kurdish is spoken and Kurdish night clubs. Turkish fear is that this becomes a model for Kurds there. Afraid of Kurds talking about autonomy. Turkey is irrigating Anatolian plateau for Kurds, but attacks continue and military is going after PKK Marxists, but attacks sometimes hit over border or hit smugglers instead. When PKK grows, repression returns - with Generals in jail, a problem.Conversino: Little chance because of heavy dependence of parts of continental Europe on Russian oil & gas.Probability of conflict erupting in each region? [Long question, partly inaudible]Conversino: French going along with sale of 2 Mistral fighter bombers. Main issue for Russia is capital outflow. In 2008 Putin tried to blame downturn in Russian economy on collapse of Lehman brothers, but no longer convincing. Crimea is probably gone, frankly.Turkey likely to have a more repressive regime in Fall 2014? [inaudible and rapid, but answer seemed to be yes, very probably]
Sorenson: Continuation of violence in Syria is likely, with Iranians, Jihadi fighters against each other, US correct not to get involved because no one group had enough strength to be supported. Increasingly religious schism between Sunni and Shia; not easy to end because about emotion.
Loicano: Spratly islands have limits because VN has only one warship and one sub. From point of view of VN, this conflict started again in 1974 after 250 years. Can see older, historical Chinese and VN inscriptions across islands. Is Hanoi going to risk conflict with China, given its limited forces? 1979 Chinese border conflict occurred when VN army was at its peak of size and battle experience - now much reduced. Nobody is willing or capable of stopping China.
Likely miscalculation in Estonia because of Russian economy?Conversino: Truman doctrine emerged from Russian threat to Turkey. Turkey has increased its trade relationship with Israel and (following incident with Israeli forces at sea) has tried to ‘bandage over’ the relations with Israel. Helps its relations with Israel.Baltics?
Need to stop referring to Belarus as last dictatorship in Europe, but even Putin is not Stalin. Putin has been tightening down further with laws to prevent questioning Soviet's actions in WW2; elevating ‘nut jobs’ to status in government positions. If he sees daylight between US and allies, will exploit it -- and shame on us if too stupid to figure that out.Conversino: Dropped off in Finland and took train to St. Petersburg - invited by Finland to return next year, rethinking NATO membership. Baltics view time in USSR as Soviet occupation - and are frightened now. New Europe does hope for US and Northern Europeans to aid them, but does not expect Germans and French to put Baltics above trade with Russia. If we do nothing about a NATO border incursion, we are done as a power. Two Europes are involving. East European states are in some cases 90% dependent on Russia for oil and gas. When Soviet troops left, could only convert 3,000 rubles to new currency -- but population that lost life savings is still willing to eat potato peels to be independent.
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