Tuesday 21 Sep.
'04: Jack Jacobs, "Why has the US not been attacked since 9/11/01?"
Tuesday 19 Oct. '04: Victor
Comras, Minister Counselor (Ret.) State Dept, International Trade Sanctions.
9 Dec. '04: Ambassador Jean-David Levitte, French Ambassador. on
Tuesday 15 Mar. '05: Paul
Smyke, WEF, on Globalization of Trade.
Tuesday 12 April '05: Dr.
Edward L. Morse, "The Oil Market: 2005 and Beyond."
Tuesday May 10, '05: Air
War College Regional Studies Program. Instructors' reports on
visits to global hot spots.
Tuesday 21 Sep. '04
Jack Jacobs, "Why has the US not been
attacked since 9/11/01?" [images],
McDermott distinguished professor at West Point and
military news analyst for NBC and MSNBC. A successful businessman
in finance and real estate, he is the recipient of three bronze stars,
two silver stars, and the congressional medal of honor (for heroism as
an infantry officer in Vietnam). He retired from the army as a Colonel
and is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations.
Introduction: During the Tet offensive
of 19 March 1968, Jacobs, while advising ARVN troops, was hit in the head
by shrapnel, suffering partial blindness. A slight man only 5'4"
tall (which saved his life) he nonetheless pulled 25 soldiers out of the
ambush zone, some of whom survived their wounds.
He is the last medal of honor recipient to be
Jewish, and likes to quote the rabbinical scholar, "If not me, who?
If not now, when.?"
A man of many one-liners, he noted that his head
surgery was performed by a recently drafted gynaecologist.
Preamble: Prof. Jacobs was full of
insights on many topics. [After a depiction of himself as non-partisan
and non-political, he delivered a stout defense of current policy.]
He noted that 20% of the troops in Iraq are from
the Reserve and Guard, but have much better training than his troops did
As for casualties, he reminded us that half the
members of the famous "Iwo Jima" photo did not survive the island's conflict.
As for second tours of action, he pointed out
that Vietnam in 1972 was much more intense than in 1968, since the enemy
had heavier weapons such as 30mm artillery.
"Why has the US not been attacked
Allies are able to get intelligence that
we cannot. But this won't last and neither will Pres. Musharraf.
Money: we are at least partially successful
in cutting the flow. Musharraf still may have to pay tribute to the
enemy, but has done good work and snet his legions into the Hindu Kush.
Iran: most dangerous nation, above North
Korea -- but there allies are carrying the load.
Film shown of living Medal of Honor recipients,
for their Foundation. Book sales.
Iran? has nuclear materials from China.
When asked why they haven't attacked the centrifuges, the Israelis replied,
why doesn't US?
Right wing in Iran is now strengthening its control,
including over women.
Force may be the only solution.
Iraq? disbanded its army and let militias
keep sanctuaries, e.g. Fallujah.
Didn't want casualties -- but this causes more
because it inhibits courses of action.
Need overwhelming combat power -- to squash enemy
like a bug.
Eventually in 3.5 years, will declare a victory
Antiterrorist war? recommended Richard
Posner article 2 weeks ago, opposed 9/11 Commission Report. We don't
need more stuctures, we need to use them smarter. DOD hold 85% of
Osama bin Laden? 1899 Afghan / Pakistan
border drawn by British raj to divide Pashto on either side of Hindu Kush,
permeable. Can't go in there after him. Paying Pakistanis to
do that but probably won't get him.
[Members have objected to the webmaster that
this is not quite correct historically, as to the date, motivation and
effect of the British designed border.]
French? Won't supply troops. (Humor: 200
years without victories, and other one-liners we won't repeat here. Even
the jews of Warsaw with only rocks held off the Nazis for longer.)
[Members have also objected to the webmaster
that this depiction of French defeats is also not correct historically,
and would have been news to Napoleon and Clausewitz -- and even to the
French SNCF, whose train station is named after a victory.]
Media? Even basketball is a profession
compared to journalism. Humor: Dan Rather not "fair and balanced
news" but "fairly unbalanced."
Tuesday 19 Oct. '04
Victor Comras, Minister Counselor
(Ret.) State Dept, a noted authority on international trade sanctions.
Following years as a diplomat in Africa, Canada and eastern Europe, he
led the implementation of UN sanctions on Yugoslavia. He recently
served as one of five members of the United Nations group overseeing implementation
of sanctions against Iraq, Al Qaeda, the Taliban, and other terrorist groups.
"International Trade Sanctions Against
Emerging from retirement after 9/11/01, Mr. Comras
joined in implementing United Nations measures to combat terrorism: to
find Al Qaeda (AQ) and cut off their resources.
New legal obligation on all countries, with an
organization to report directly to UN Security Council.
Comras one of 5 international experts -- asked
goverenments around the world, published series of reports.
Very critical, great shortcomings in many countries.
Mandate was not renewed.
AQ product of disastrous Soviet war in Afghanistan.
Many recruits indoctrinated by new wave of religious
Extensive support from oil rich middle east kingdoms
Wahabism austere form of Islam. Suadi growing
rivalry with Shiite Iranian orthodoxy. Saudis funded teaching centers
around middle East.
$75 Billion Saudi contribution -- new imams with
Imams in Pakistan and indonesia, seeking nations
teacher of OBL: fighting more valued than prayer.
But rejected by most muslims. Found support
from youth, resenting W culture.
AQ home Sudan, then Afghan, grew rapidly to 60
'96 Khobar Towers, '98 two embassies bombed,
2000 USS Cole attacked, 2001, 9/11 attacks.
US response swift against Afghan. AQ lost
physical base, clearly severe loss.
$130 M AQ and Taliban assets frozen with allies.
AQ resilient: Iraqi war provided new impetus.
New AQ emerged with new emphasis. Pace of attacks accelerated.
Bali, Modina [?], Tashkent, Moscow and Berlin.
US spared -- but for how long?
Constant vigilance, concrete international coorperation,
police cooperation, system-wide financial control.
Detention of supporters -- but what we don't
know is serious:
where is OBL and his chief Al Zawahiri?
1,000 cells now, with new management.
Information from captives is getting outdated
-- using 3 yr old info.
Little done to close down AQ recruitment centers.
Rumsfeld -- risk of turning out terrorists faster
than we can kill them.
Madrassahs still preaching ideology.
Funding sources -- little hard info. 9/11
Commission said charities and deep donors, but little done.
Banks new principle "know your customer" -- report
suspicious transactions -- but much more difficult because AQ switched
assets out, using informal transfers like hawallah storefronts. Regulations
Charity nets (Zakat, muslim donation) mix good
& bad spending.
International drug trade: billions in unregulated
Local cells businesses and petty crime.
Financial system weak link -- no assets frozen
in AQ operating countries.
No prosecution anywhere of AQ funding persons.
Progress: ferreting out leaders and hunting
Losing: battle to influence youth. Hatred
of West is increasing. Pool of AQ youth is growing.
Countermeasure must be tolerance and pluralism.
American muslims must speak [??] to world --
organization in New Jersey requested list of safe charities during Ramadan
-- but rebuffed by State.
Saudi real friend of US? Saudis in total denial
until recently -- said Saudis would never give roots to AQ -- 2 weeks before
Riyadh bombings. Now taking first steps. Difficult because
so many implicated in funding AQ via charities. Saudis promised Al
Haram chairty would be closed -- but still operating in most of 35 countries.
Administration could only go so far without bringing
Funding from US? Has happened. Difficult
to separate Hamas and AQ funding -- often from same sources. Extremely
difficult to prosecute. US Treasury authorities used to designate
groups and freeze assets. Canadians did creditable job also.
But like a needle in haystack -- especially before attacks occured.
Attacks before election? -- No special
French and German Cooperation? Good from
Europe generally -- but only a limited number of countries have ability
to monitor (developed coutries).
International banking community needs international
mechnaism -- not bilateral efforts. No international database exists
-- each case is treated as new.
How cupable is UN in oil for food scam?
Very -- but so were we all. Corrupt from beginning. Let Saddam
choose Company, lifting oil and did not police it. Only checking
bill of lading before paying from escrow account in New York.
GAO said Sddam had skimmed $6 to 10 Billion.
UN CTC (Counter Terrorism Committee).
1267 Series Resolutions versus AQ, listed , identified
and freezing assets.
1373 resolution created CTC -- but has not achieved
Newer CTC hiring 60 people -- but have lost several
AQ leadership? Zarqawi restated fealty to OBL
-- worked with Iraqi and Iranian intelligence.
9 Dec. '04
Ambassador Jean-David Levitte, French
Ambassador to the United States since December 2002. Educated as a lawyer,
oriental linguist and political scientist, he has been in the French Foreign
Service for 34 years, last serving as Ambassador to the United Nations.
For five years, he was an advisor to President Chirac.
Introduction by Gen. Cleveland.
Presentation on US- French Bilateral relations.
French Foreign service since 1970.
Far east and Africa, staff of Giscard d'Estaing.
Amb. to UN before US, worked as adviser to Chirac
before UN. Witness to WTC fall.
See biographical notes handed out.
Pres Bush said on presenting credentials France
was best ally in war on terror.
Why in Afghanistan & not in Iraq?
France unfortunately has experience with terrorism,
eg on streets of Marseilles in '80s, '90s -- and shared intelligence with
CIA & FBI on daily basis.
Saw NYC towers' destruction from office windows.
Took initiative to change international law to
France participated fully in Afghan war.
Still maintain troops there, & French General
in charge of NATO operations in Kabul. Only French & US have
Special Forces on Pakistani border -- and training Afghan army.
Did not consider war necessary at that time --
did not exclude and did cooperate with troops in 1991 -- not with rush
to war while UN inspections were under way. Not sure there were stocks
of WMD -- but sure they were no immediate threat.
War could trigger resentment all over Arab world
-- based on bitter French experience all over arab world, should not underestimate
Could be a disaster if Iraq does not succeed,
for several regimes including Jordan.
France will help -- not with troops -- but will
offer to train Iraqi gendarmerie and agrees with forgiving 80% of Iraqi
debt, will help with Iraqi elections.
You will see convergence of policies between
US & France and Europe in coming years, cooperation in several areas
If we had a big difference over war with Iraq,
we have agreement on many issues.
This year 2 miracles:
I read in media Chirac and Schroeder want to
build European counterweight to US.
BUT Franco-German goal of EU has always been
to make war in Europe impossible.
France historically invaded and has been invaded
by all neighbours. Enough was enough for DG & Adenauer.
Put together steel & coal, then nuclear industries
because of military applications.
Common market followed and common currency for
300 M Europeans.
Enlargement of EU:- ten new countries with xx
M [??] population, most recently part of old soviet empire, 3 were part
of old soviet union.
Started with Marshall plan of 1948.
US was based on one language, enlightenment culture.
EU has 2,000 yrs of different histories, wars,
confrontation -- different legal traditions, 21 languages, treaties from
Rome to Maastricht.
If ratified, will have one EU presi, one fon
min, will help cooperation to develop.
will continue to build EU defense, not to compete
with US but as stronger ally.
Need to integrate better our forces -- good news
for America -- will help NATO to be more balanced, more efficient, more
ready to confront threats of terrorism and WMD.
France is second investor in US, after only UK.
$180 BN in FDI, worth 650,000 US jobs.
Important to meet CEOs and discuss AL for investment,
For France, many new jobs and $1Bn daily in trade
New big Airbus 380 half built in US, assembled
in Toulouse -- shows integration of economies.
Hope new Boeing will be partly built in France.
More imp to help new generations to work together.
Youth obliged to learn 2 foreign languages, common for students to take
year abroad, building integrated generation of Europeans.
Developing partnerships between US & French
French soldiers in American Revolution, French
revolution bult on American Liberty, Equality, Fraternity.
Close at end of both ww1 and ww2. Was with
Bush and Chirac at Normandy memorial and reunion for D-day vets this June.
True Heroes, never forget.
Disagreement within family should be accepted
-- disagree without being disagreeable. Admire Colin Powell.
For 225 years we have been in marriage with counselling.
EU Trade Commission is only interlocutor for
2/3 of FDI comes from EU -- and vice versa.
4M US jobs come from EU.
difficulties: mad cows, chickens, cheeses, wine,
but minor matters.
Only a week away from wine agreement.
Damage to relations over last 2 years?
Quite severe -- most since '66 De Gaulle withdrawing
from NATO structure.
French had difficulties understanding depth of
tragedy of 9/11 -- & some US reactions went too far, disinformation,
in DOD following war with Iraq -- accused French of giving passports to
Saddam & family to escape from Iraq. Questioned both DOD and
DOS but no answer -- media reported this & caused outrage, but now
known untrue. Sent public letters to US administration about this
disinformation, gave 8 examples of Pentagon disinformation
You can strongly disagree with Pres. Chirac,
half of France is strongly against Chirac's policy, as Americans are.
But in France not the same kind of America bashing
-- just opposed to war.
Surveys show 72% of French positive opinions
about American people.
Important to maintain good relations with US
-- 90% yes.
10% of French population muslim?
No, 8%, 5M muslims approx but cannot question
officially by law -- also largest Jewish community 700,000.
New development in France since Algerian independence.
Not a problem for 95% of these muslims, just
building a better future like US Mexicans or Cubans.
5% creating problems in impoverished suburbs,
good education as French citizens -- but tensions at home with muslim faith.
Need French schools to train French imams, to
replace the extremist immigrant imams expelled from Algeria, Morocco &
Nuclear proliferation -- will France take
lead on Iran?
UK, German & French initiative on Iran.
Wait for fall of ayatollahs, some say.
But in Europe we feel cannot wait, took initiative
last year, Iran has accepted to sign protocol to open door for more IAEA
Most threatening development is enrchment of
uranium, now suspended and verifiably.
NK on other hand has ousted inspectors and building
four to six nuclear bombs.
But for next phase need full support from US,
we don't have enough leverage to convince hard liners in Teheran to stop
for ever nuclear ambitions, need US.
Engage maybe in secret dialog -- needed because
of Shias in Iraq, Afghan. Iran can create trouble.
Need to discuss their support of Hizballah.
Sanctions would need consensus and switch roles
of good cop and bad cop, EU playing bad cop this time.
Full membership of Turkey in EU?
Chirac is totally in favor of full membershipof
Turkey in EU. Nine days to decide whether to start the negotiations
-- no doubt it will be positive, and begin in one year or so
Big debate all Europe over Turkey, not important
that it is muslim -- ex Yugoslav muslims OK -- but a big country.
In 10-15 yrs of negotiation, Turkey will have 100 M pop. New constitution:
policy needs 55% of states & 65% of pop. Blocking minority by 35% --
half of which is Turkey alone.
Like giving CA half of blocking minority of US
Economic: Turkey is dynamic economy but low developmental
level -- like ten newcomers who have less pop together than Turkey.
EU helps newcomers to catch up with money transfers, $40Bn per year transferred
to newcomers -- costly.
Should join, provided respect criteria.
Religion as private matter -- but problem
of islamic militants converted in prisons??
Worst thing would be a clash of civilizations,
Huntington proven right. Prevent by respectful dialog wth 100M muslims
all over the world.
How help them to adopt our values.
Defeated communism thru dialog, partnership --
but not comparable because do not want to defeat or eliminate islam, a
How can we separate moderate muslims from extremists,
Another reason why opposed war wth Iraq -- war
is not best way to help people discover democracy.
Took 6 yrs s kingdom of ?? [Morocco??] to set
emancipation of women, coming directly from religious laws.
Should not impose values like crusaders of
21st Century -- should be century of dialog and civilization, not confrontation.
Tuesday 15 Mar. '05
Paul Smyke, [Images]
senior adviser to the World Economic Forum on its relations with the US
public and private sectors. A Swiss-American political analyst, on the
effects of globalization, nationally and in Alabama.
Paul Smyke, "Reflections on Globalization
of Trade and Alabama."
WEF 35 years
3 parts --
1 what is WEF
Core Business organizations, surrounded by NGOs,
academia, religious organizations, govt., labour, youth, media.
2 Conclusions of recent Davos summit January
5 days in Alpine town.
Founded 1971 by Prof. Klaus Schwab, funded
by business membership, HQ Geneva, NGO like Red /cross.
Annual meetings, industry meetings, initiatives,
regional summits, Center fr Strategic insight.
For disasters, drug companies provide supplies
Turbulent & complex world, due to interdependence,
volatility, time compression, asymmetry, signals vs noise.
12 main challenges
* China -- likely soft landing for
rising trade surplus with US may cause political
backlash, 20 M jobs needed every yr.
* Education - developed and developing countries
-- especially girls & women.
Primary, secondary & university but linked
to job creation.
Jordan Education initiative -- internet in
* Equitable globalization for developing countries.
NEt gain, lifted millions from poverty, countries
with free trade have grown faster.
Globalization also ruthless to some limited
by education, infrastructure, education, democracy or health deficits.
DOha Development agenda should be implemented.
* Europe aging, lacking dynamism, diminishing
world role. Failure of Lisbon agenda -- but some dissent.
* Global economy up 4% in 2004, slightly
higher in emerging markets, forecast 3.25% for 2005.
Risk factors US deficits, weakness in Europe.
* Global governance, international organizations
Institutional gap, needs new international partnerships, corruption a problem.
Climate change - growing consensus that problem is real.
* Islam -- ideological conflict with
west, fault of rulers in mid E and conflict between secular & sectarian
* Middle East window of Opportunity in Palestine.
Iraq great unknown, Iran nuke ambitions, need for high growth to soak up
* Poverty 3 Billion live on $2 per day (Africa
* US leadership - debates over benign hegemon
question. US is a net debtor while only superpower.
* Global trade. Doha round not advancing.
Four scenarios for Future in NIC
2020 from US Govt. -- cited WEF & DAvos brand.
Davos World -- robust growth, non-western
face to globalization
New Caliphate -- radical religious.
Harmony of govt., business and media needed
to market state to businesses. More effective than a simple pitch
prepared by advertising agency.
CEO attracted more by another CEO than by
an official alone.
Student exchanges valuable -- e.g. Harvard
Encouraging student travel.
e.g. 6 yr. old daughter taking Chinese 3
Sister city & state programs w/ Latin
Amer. & China. Costs money without direct benefit, but valuable
AWAC helpful to state?
Needs younger people -- essay contest and
send winner overseas -- costs $10-15K but helps reach beyond typical audience.
state has transport network.
e.g. Singapore has recruitment program to
attract talent, offer incentives to move.
Chinese soft landing scenario?
Grudging respect shown fr US in what Bush
has done -- contrast with 6 months ago. But still trust deficit among
very intelligent people outside US. US not supporting ICC, Kyoto.
Europeans still object to lack of US health
care coverage etc.
Exporting jobs? Outsourcing discussions?
Last year one of top issues, but this year not among leading issues.
Global governance -- corruption issue.
Kofi Annan recognizes Rwanda was greatest failure. WEF has launched
anti corruption initiative, statement of pledge fr companies -- see web
Tuesday 12 April '05
Dr. Edward L. Morse, "Oil prices and the
International Energy Sector: What's Next?"
Senior director and executive adviser for
Hess Energy Trading Company and former owner/publisher of Petroleum Intelligence
Weekly. A renowned international expert on energy, he spoke on the
conflict between Russia and Saudi Arabia for international oil ascendancy.
Johns Hopkins MA, Princeton PhD. CFR
research project, Taught at Princeton. First senior fed officer on
energy issues, during Iranian crisis in Carter and Reagan admins.
He created consulting energy Co which became leading Co. -- intro
by Jim Nathan.
The Oil Market Outlook: 2005 and Beyond.
Oil prices increased since 2003 to $56 barrel,
May be like the doubling of prices in 1973 or
Limited by rigs, refining capacity and transport,
given high demand.
75% of resources located in OPEC countries, but
OPEC has failed to increase capacity for a generation.
Although large resources exist, the issue is
Peak of capacity in different measures was 1981,
when in surplus.
April and May weakest period of demand in year,
then increases in summer.
Gas prices going up because of lack of refinery
capacity, and crude oil is constrained.
Russia is world's most imp incremental supplier
of oil -- was all of increase in 2003 and 04.
Oil extremely politically imp in Russia for Putin
and Kremlin. Kremlin's oil authority was challenged by private oil
Cos -- but main Co. leader had his oil Co taken and he was jailed.
Production slumped among other Cos.
World was dependent on Russia and Russia is failing
Gaddafi's takeover led to permanent reduction
of oil production in Libya.
Iran 1978 similarly constrained its oil production
Chavez in Venezuela had similar effect on lowering
Loss of staff with advanced degrees in revolutionary
regimes is a problem.
demand driven by age of population and mobility.
China has 6 M now, 1/4 size of Russia's, 1/10
of US. Hence China will keep on increasing cars. Power is oil
based in China, and this will increase oil needs also.
US share of consumption is still increasing dramatically.
US supply declined in 1990s. US is #1 consumer, China now 2nd, Japan
Germany and France are half of Japan.
US pop grew by 30M in last decade.
Cannot predict refinery accidents, revolutions,
2004 reached 92% of capacity, essentially full
Baku pipeline postponed a year, could reduce
China oil importing country, growing astronomically.
Caspian Basin and Iraq both are landlocked, need
oil pipeline through neighbors.
Shared public-private pipeline russia, exxon
Mobil and others has been a failed experiment. This discourages other
partnerships with governments.
Europe is stagnant in oil demand -- demand is
only growing in western hemisphere and in Asia.
Iranian perspective: surrounded by US on all
sides and at sea. Intransigence on both sides has impeded Caspian
sea oil and Iranian oil flow.
US sanctions on Iran have worked.
Chinese oil cos in Gulf and elsewhere -- competition
and possible conflict with other oil cos?
We thought the age of resource nationalism was
over and private cos would manage oil resources. But premature.
We now see oil nationalism still with us.
Putin came via KGB, which controlled oil flow
and all foreign exchange flows under USSR.
Putin can see growing threat from China, and
holds oil in east with little population in region, e. Siberia.
China has to consider oil imports require navy
and many bilateral arrangements to ensure.
US has not invited China (#2) to join the oil
forum. Chinese must feel rules are rigged against them, deals bilaterally.
Chinese calculation is not money, it is power.
Mexico? Not in OPEC but has state oil Co
monopoly so operates like saudi in some ways.
German taxes at $6 gallon have protected consumer
from major price increases effect.
Many oil producers have stagnant economies --
e.g. over generation Kuwait still at $25 bn oil economy -- whereas BP started
same size and now 10 times size, profits alone $25bn.
Environmental movement in US effect? US had not
had open debate about tradeoffs between environment and price stability.
Tuesday May 10, '05 [Images]
Air War College Regional Studies Program.
Senior War College instructors reported on their recent visits to global
Col. (Dean) Stef Eisen moderator
Dr Chris Hemmer on Arab-Israeli
Dr LE Grinter on Vietnam and China
Dr Glenn Lamar on France and Spain
Col. Stefan Eisen Jr., DPA, (moderator)
is Dean of Academic Affairs for the Air War College. He previously
commanded training squadrons, instructed in training jets, and introduced
Warrior Week to AF Basic Military Training. He was designated top
graduate at SOS and Naval War College, and distinguished graduate at ACSC.
He holds the BS from the USAF Academy, MS from St. Mary's University, MA
from the Naval War College, and DPA from Alabama.
Reports on regional tours. --
7 week study of region followed by 2 weeks
with Combatant Commanders Theater Security Coop Plan.
This year took retired 4 star generals as
mentors, plus outreach to International officers.
Christopher Hemmer, "The Middle East"
Christopher Hemmer, Ph.D., is Associate
Professor of Strategy and International Security at Air War College, specializing
in political psychology and the Arab-Israeli conflict. He holds the
BA in political science from SUNY Albany, and the Ph.D. in international
relations from Cornell University. He is the author of Which Lessons
Matter? American Foreign Policy Decision Making: The Middle East,
1979-87. (SUNY Press, 2000), and most recently, "I Told You so:
Syria, Oslo, and the Al-Aqsa Intifada" Middle East Policy 10,3 (Fall
But Mostly arab - Israeli conflict because
people in region consider it most important. Creating two states
in area 1/6 size of Alabama, very tiny.
Optimism now, because:
Insurgency in Iraq
Iran nuclear weapons
Libya denouncing WMD programs
Saudi & Egypt dem reforms hints
Pessimism: also 3 reasons.
Start of Bush 2nd term is most auspicious time,
experienced team that does not seek reelection.
New PLO leader Mahmood Abbas elected president
2005, committed to peace, considers violence strategic disaster for PLO.
Sharon's decision for unilateral withdrawal from
gaza strip, 360 sq. mi but crowded. Surprise because Sharon one architect
Nezerene loneliest settlement, critical withdrawal.
Sharon got agreement in cabinet by firing two
opponents before vote.
Conclusion. Better now than for
Bush team lacks desire. Opposed to Clinton's
activism in Mideast.
Ceasefire remains tenuous.
West Bank barrier still being built, hardships
Sharon is trying to come to a settlement unilaterally
by drawing borders where he wants them via barrier (wall or fence are loaded
terms, sate Dept. uses barrier.)
Glenn Lamar, "France & Spain, Security
Glenn Lamar, Ph.D., is Visiting Professor
in the Department of Strategy at the Air War College, and adviser to the
West Europe regional studies trip. He holds the BA in French and
MA in History from Auburn, and the Ph.D. in History from Florida State
University. his book,
Jerome Bonaparte: The War Years, 1800-1815
(Greenwood, 2000) won the 2001 International Napoleonic Society's Literary
Old NATO or new EU?
Rivals in some ways, working to same purposes -- mostly same states.
Still allies in NATO for 5 years, esp on war
n terrorism, excellent intelligence services esp in N Africa and Mid East.
Spain still ally in war on terror, despite pulling
out troops from Iraq after election.
Visited NATO HQ etc.
Turkey in NATO but not EU --
Norway is rare -- in NATO but not EU, though
may join EU in near future.
big issue because Bush pressure for admitting
turkey. Belgians gave technical response, spanish similar but more
negative, French blunter -- like Americans, they are not european.
EU is not unified, more a confederation, still voting on issues; Turkey
would be largest nation in europe and would have largest vote.
NATO long future? Still a necessary
bridge between US and Europe.
9/11 and 3/11 Spain -- public opinion
strongly against Iraqi war.
French troops still in Afghanistan.
Constitution, 1/3 states referenda, looks
like failure in France.
Not a threat to NATO.
NRF = NATO response Force, airlifted outside
Europe. Being created in case US not involved. (NATO now means
US to Europeans).
Intervention in Ivory Coast & Congo
-- US not involved. Eu Battlegroups n future.
Europeans will continue to be strongest allies
Lawrence E. "Buck" Grinter, "Hong Kong Viet
Nam and Singapore"
Lawrence E. "Buck" Grinter, Ph.D.,
is Professor of Asian Studies, Dept. of War Fighting, Air War College,
Editor of the Maxwell Papers, and Founder board member of AWAC.
He is co-editor of six books and has authored 52 published articles on
Asian and international security affairs. Dr. Grinter holds the BA
from the University of Florida, and MA and Ph.D. in political science from
the University of North Carolina. He has extensive military and intelligence
experience in East Asia.
Economic Development despite communist
Flew to Hanoi, first time in North.
First experience outside gates of army hotel
was female invitation on street (market communism).
Images of real estate speculation near airport.
40% of industry still state owned and slow growing,
but growth from roaring private sector, 8% growth officially.
Hidden economy may equal official economy, robust
trading nation, rubber, fish, coffee exports.
Corruption endemic, could be 5% of GDP.
Dilemmas of modernizing: how to open economy
but keep political control.
Vietnam running behind China, old men still around,
but Sec Gen. a reformer, possibly illegitimate son of Ho Chi Minh (does
Cannot protest or form other party -- but growing
freedom in media and associations, earlier in Saigon than Hanoi.
Moving toward a new interpretation of Human Rights
but cannot risk disturbances, top priority is stability. Just can't
accept other parties or bearing arms. -- leader.
Diplomatic: improved relations with China
Russia and US.
People's rule, protection of fatherland, and
economy. 40% of Vietnam mil budget is earned in business. Mil
leaders see that business is vital to their budget.
Borders still insecure, but ten years of normalization
with US and 4 years of trade.
60th anniversary of Ho's declaration of independence.
We have visited there but so far do not pay Vietnam
to study in US.
Parallels Vietnam and Iraq now?
Burgess: Withdrawal from Palestine this summer?
Hemmer -- nature of opposition much less
in Iraq, not unified, disparate groups.
Therefore US prospects better.
In Jordan met Iraqi officers being retrained
for new Air force. All have families threatened for collaboration,
but still committed to building AF.
Hemmer: there was fear of civil war and
having to evict Jews. Met officers planning the operation to evacuate,
expecting most people will accept compensation. But some zealots
from outside gaza could be blocked from entering Gaza. Sharon put
a lot behind it. Despite some ugly moments will succeed.
France and NATO?
Negotiation on West Bank to follow this?
Probably not, because still creating facts n ground by settling E, N and
S of Jerusalem.
European defense with own infrastructure?
Lamar -- France now very active in NATO
exercises, sending most troops, flying flag at NATO.
No will be NATO with Americans on coffee break.
Berlin Plus Agreement: can borrow NATO assets (i.e. US) for nearby regions,
Europeans lack transport.
Hemmer: polls among Palestinians
show since Arafat's death favor peace & negotiations -- but Hamas is
strongest organ and has still rejected peace process. Hamas ran away
with local elections. Next vote in June July for Pales legislature,
where less corrupt and local service is less a factor.
Vietnam, China, India relations?
Syria relations in middle east?
Grinter -- Vietnam skillful but Chinese
and Indians on their minds. Chinese have 17x pop, flood of imports
Indians and Vietnam greatly interested because
f difficulties with Chinese in past. Indians training Vietnam on
Sukhoi fighters. BUt Chinese work through bilateral arrangements
to offset the Indian and US influences in their underbelly.
Role of Europeans?
Hemmer: Syrians know when to back down,
when go too far. Issues ar Golan and WMD as well as flow of terrorists
to Iraq. Syrians very clever at closing a process down when Powell
visits, reopening soon after. Can extract concessions -- more skilled
Lamar -- lack door kicking ability.
Fr and Brits level 2, but steep drop off below them in capability.
Have large infantry as peacekeeping troops -- but only US has more creative