October 8, 2002: Maj. Gen. Perry Smith, USAF Retd., "The Coming War with Iraq."

December 3, 2002: Amb. Yang Sung-chul, Korean ambassador to the US. (No notes submitted).

February 4, 2003: Dr. Robert Gallucci, "The Axis of Evil -- What Next?" 
Images, low-res: [Gallucci]; [members]; [HC students]; [Hi-res images List].

March 11, 2003: Dr. Michael Ledeen, "War Against Terrorism", author and former Reagan administration national security council official.

May 13, 2003: Air War College Regional Studies Program Report.  (Limited to Middle East this year.)

Intro:
Organized UNSCOM to inspect Iraq.
Negotiated Agreed Framework w/ N. Korea.  During Desert storm, instructor at National War College. Reconstruction of Bosnia.
Speech: "Axis of Evil"

• 1814 precedent, Brits burned our capital, defenseless -- but oceans protected, neighbors posed no threat. 
• Splendid isolation. 
• Defense by denial (of access to shores).
• Isolationist v engagement debate in WW1.  AIr power began in WW1, had ability to shrink oceans and hit battleships in future.
• WW2 Pearl, but end of WW2 brought intercontinental range aircraft & rockets.  2nd was atomic bomb. 
• End of defense by denial, even with air defense.
• Offense needed, w/ Triad.  Deterrence, not denial.  Psych concept. 
• 1960s return to ABM for denial, various architectures. 
• Offense -Defense cost exchange ratio (offense cheaper).  ABM Treaty.  President Reagan returned to President Kennedy and President Johnson interesting defense if tech could reverse ratio.  But didn't work.
• SDI: research but not deployment. 
• President Bush 43 interested in defense by denial, strategic goal of dominance. 
• Dec 2002 doc declares this forces stronger than any other state could hope to match.
• - end arms control agreements.
• - Russia no threat as power, but does leak fissile material, bio tech & scientists -- and does transfer e.g. to Iran nuke power program. 
• - China only traditional threat, esp Navy subs, nuke weapons modernizing.
• - rogue states not negotiable.  Appeasement, ineffective because cheating -- so use force.
• - SORT Treaty not a traditional Treaty. Withdrew from ABM Treaty. Test ban ended, because US has the means.

• Vulnerable to unconventionally delivered weapons, & fanatics.
• Intersection of 2 sets: fanatics and weapons.
• 13-14M containers opened in ports per yr.
• Might not know who attacked, from where -- and they might not care.
• Back to 1814.
• Nuke weapons still too complex except for Govts, w/ plutonium (Nagasaki) -- but two enriched uranium masses are simple to force together like Hiroshima.
• Continuity of govt. program -- weekends n moountain and now not just an exercise.
• NEST now deployed to Washington.
• National Security Document indicates nuke to be dropped on MidEast countries in event of war.
• Preventive [not Pre-emptive] strike right in Bush doc.
• Preventive war now asserted: before they even threaten them.  Not used by President Kennedy or President Reagan even.  "Provocative and not prudent" because could be claimed by other nations e.g. india or Pakistan.

• Iraq lines to terror are faint.
• Inspections found mustard, Sarin, VVX evidence.  Bio weapons, certainly some.  Nukes -- only a year away.
• Almost certainly leftovers from 1991-98, plus opportunity to regenerate.  Iran, Libya, syria Pakistan, India, N. Korea have bio weapons.
• Nuclear -- lack material & facilities so long as monitored.
• Iraq however violated 1441.
• N. Korea: mid '80s developed nuke facilities.  Crisis '93.  Choices: contain N. Korea, 2 bomb nuke program 3 negotiate (did so).  3 years later N. Korea cheated as Clinton left office.  Still best to negotiate.
• Bush: don't negotiate w/ rogue states.  Now N. Korea has enrichment program.  Bush generally rejects negotiation -- major crisis.  N. Korea might transfer weapons to terrorist groups.
• IRAN: may be most imp.  Has medium range missiles, nuke weapons program from Russia, has transferred to terrorists to past -- but now a dem.
• W/o negotiations, will have to accept.  Far preferable to negotiate than to whack 'em.

• UN inspectors did return because of Bush unilateral policy, but real threat is in Asia, not midEast.
• Bush skeptical of Nunn-Lugar threat reduction programs (securing fissile material in Russia).
• Not worth it to label country evil if intend to negotiate -- unless simply intend to bomb.
• Detonation of WMD in a city?  Tech cannot be uninvented, must live with this indefinitely.
• Great Framework, N. Korea: series of interlocking steps, each observable.  Big nuke program, 3 peer year capability -- frozen for 2K Megawatt light water reactors & interim fuel oil supplies.   But N. Korea cheating w/ new secret enrichment program w/ Pakistan tech.  Can't imagine Bush handling crisis worse -- no negotiation, then axis of evil, then targetted publicly with nuclear weapons.  SK now feels Washington is problem, not N. Korea.

 

Introduction:
1970 Viet Nam war, Tailwind into Laos, 150 SF & Montagnards, faced tremendous resistance by NVN, almost overrun, air strikes w/ tear gas, saved the mission. 
1998 Times & CNN story was nerve gas Sarin dropped on enemy & American defectors.  Bogus story. -- Gen. Cleveland.
Speaker:
Perry on CNN at time. resigned in protest.
Raising money fr Medal of Honor foundation to fund their speakers.
Born at West Point, mil family.
Saw Pearl attack at age 6.
Parrallels between Pearl & 9-11:
surprise, tactical success, operational & strategic level though a huge mistake -- joined US together, defeated fascism.
90 countries now support US against terror.
Unlike Pearl, everyone saw the event (via TV).
"If not me, who?  If not now, When?"
Must do something about Saddam -- has to be US and soon.
Will be Jan - Feb. next year, following overwhelmingly Congressional Resolution, stronger than in 1990.  Assumes inspectors will not have full access.
UN Resolution will be passed, authorizing force.
Unlikely Saddam would be killed quickly, so war likely.
War very different from 1991: must take down Saddam, his clan, the Republican guard -- but must leave country in good shape for rebuilding.
SInce Kosovo we can take down electrical system for any length of time with temporary putty bomb -- & select bridges, transport, allowing for quick rebuilding.
FOcus on Saddam, not infrastructure, or most of mil forces.
Most of Iraqi forces will stand aside.
Some SF, much air power.  Couple of weeks only.
Who will put country together, how long?
Iraq has no history of dem or free enterprise -- and little tradition in mid E.
Iraq has 10% of world oil, with good capacity -- don't need marshall plan, just restart pumping.
Iraqi secular state since 1932 -- not fundamentalist.
Remember in youth Italians were seen as undemocratic -- but it worked.
Best analysis: Kenneth Pollock book very careful.
Franks will run war.
SF Operations Command large role as in afghan..
SF Command and Central Command are neighbors in Tampa.
J-3 is Nordie Schwartz, strong SF background.
SF coming to fore these days.
Gulf War used Sf very little -- more now.

• What if Iraq attacks Israel?  Saddam will fire Scuds -- while Israel has both high and low alt interceptor missiles.  Sharon may not fire back.
• N. Korea just as bad?  Saddam has used Weapons of Mass Destruction -- only one since WW2. 
• Long peace?  Possible except for mini wars.

• Lack of support form EU allies?  Lack of long term policy?

• Can we push UN owing to our money deficit with the organization?

• What if Iraq cooperates with inspectors thru March.?

• Scott Ritter?  Wrote good book -- but now strange.  WSJ claimed Ritter is paid by a saudi now.
• Jordan to play role in seeking new leaders for Iraq?

• Iraq v Iran as demon?  Iranians have not used nerve gas, on mass scale.  Should not impose dem on all -- but should consider dem as a choice for people.  General t ...
• Public leadership of Bush?

Because of what he considers the “two scandals” the intelligence agencies have little or no
power.

     Assassination Scandal 
          Because of this we cannot penetrate terrorist organizations 
          We have not only been prohibited from assonating heads of state, but also any
          assignations and fraternizing with known or planning assigns.

     Toracelli Scandal 
          Scandal involving a man captured by guerilla forces in a South American country
          whom was tortured and killed.  One of the men involved was a paid informant for
          the CIA.  Senator Toracelli brought this information to light and the following
          scandal imposed new rules on intelligence agencies. 
          Because of this our intelligence agencies are not allowed to work with those who
          have “bad” human rights.

As of September 10, 2001…

     The FBI was not able to clip newspaper articles about terrorist organizations or enter
     mosques to listen to anti-Christian or anti-U.S. conversations.

The only options available to the CIA:  to Interpol and have known terrorists arrested when
they move (country to country) or bomb the entire camp, thus killing other people.

     This is because they could not assonate anyone. 
     Regardless of what they knew about them. 
     They also cannot follow a known terrorist around as long as they have not committed a
     crime in the U.S.

 The Soviet Union was the biggest sponsor of terrorism for a long time.

A terrorist organization cannot be made out of money, one needs a country to help back it.

     Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria were the four biggest sponsors of terrorism at the time
     of 9-11. (North Korea not far behind, and even closer today.) 
     That is why we make no distinction between the country and terrorist group. 
     In the beginning we liked Saddam—because he wasn’t a religious fanatic.

Terrorism will not end as long as there is tyranny.
     This is because the U.S. is a treat to their control. 
     Their people look up to us as far as wealth and happiness and freedom which
     undermines their control. 
     These countries are all bound by tyranny and hatred for the United States. 
     When polled by the Iraqi government hired polers 70% of the Iraqi people said that they
     were dissatisfied with their government and would like to see a change. 
          Taking into consideration that all knew they were being polled by the government,
          we can reasonably assume that the percentage is much higher than that.

 NATO nations wanted to help us when we said “We are going over there whether you like it or
not.”
     This is because they knew that they could not fight a war on their own, they need to
     “help” us so that they will not seem to be letting the U.S. take control. 
     The European countries are not able to fight a war because they do not possess the
     manpower or equipment to do so. 
     A majority of European nations spend 1% of their GDP on their military, this is not even
     enough to pay and clothe the soldiers.

 While we are waiting around on the U.N. to decide what we need to do and who will help us
the “axis of evil” countries are banning together.

“My biggest worry is that before we act the ‘axis of evil’ nations will band together and make
the job messier than it has to be.”

AWC Briefing, 13 May '03 (raw notes)
Senior War College instructors report on their visits to international hot spots.  (Often one of the best received presentations of the year).
Modified in 2003: Owing to the cancellation of trips, Dr. Record and Dr. Sorenson spoke on the Middle East.

Cleveland: German Consul General coming to AL Power, lunch @ Cap city Tues. June 3rd, noon, first 50 taken.  Free.
240-9430 chamber of commerce.

Lawrence Grinter, China expert.
Preemption: first US attack on recognized govt.  Had an ambassador did 1990, and sold weapons to Saddam regime.   How far might Bush go?   Decapitation issue: legitimate going after foreign leader if you have gone to war with country.  Crossed Rubicon here.
Costs: no one estimated within $40 Bn before the war..  CBO est $60 Bn.  Budget requests higher than that.
Casualties: no est on Iraqi side, hospitals in chaos, media not peering too deeply.  Assume 100 to one ratio, 13,000 Iraqis, equiv. to 150K Amer. proportionate to pop.
Regime change. 
No WMD found so far - now saying may have been destroyed before war ended.  Powell saying they had a program.
Theories of Perle Wolfowitz, Ajami and Ledeen that dem can be fashioned in Middle East are in question.

Jeffrey Record
Assassination ban was E.O. of Ford.  FDR approved attack on Yamamoto, and would so on Hitler if had been possible.
Bush doctrine, Sep. 2002 nat sec strategy.
Threat Undeterrable enemy getting WMD (esp nuke) 
Rome was only a regional superpower -- no precedent for global superpower.
Bush sees threats fm Terrorist organizations, regimes that harbor them, and rogue states.
Solution is to strike first and clean them out.
Many Cons feel fist Gulf war should have cleaned out Baghdad.  Saddam is deterrable.
Need to separate threats from different regimes -- nixon first pres. to separate communist states. 
Rogue states constrained -- N.Korea and Iraq have not used them against other states (even Israel) only against non-states.
N.Korea believed to have delivery systems.
Preemption when enemy attack is imminent.  Has legal standing.
Pearl Harbor justified to Japanese by feeling war w/ US was inevitable.
Will other countries attack nations pre-emptively?
Easier to win war than peace -- but war was won with few troops on ground-- but perhaps too few to win the peace. Occupation of Japan not a good precedent.
No wMD -- either did not exist or got rid of them.

Sorenson: still trying to sort out mideast, but where were anti-American mobs in mid east?  Ended after a couple of days -- not a dem trade in middle East.   saddam hd little pop support in Middle East, wars, drank alcohol, `bad Muslim.
Terrorism in WMD? if Iraq had the he would have showed them to deter us.
Sea changes in Mid east -- Bush now paying attention
Pales & Is have given up on peace.  Have learned to live with violence. 
Is election trounced Labor, party of peace -- for Likud. 
Syria now has Amer. troops on one border and Israel on another. Regime not as ruthless s Iraq.  Might understand indirectly threatened.
Iran -- 60% under 30, and realize imams have destroyed economy. 
Both syria and Iran might improve regimes.  Shah's son pipes in radio rock, countered by imams' islamic rock.
Democratization not necessarily in interests of US -- e.g. Turkey islamist party voted against US alliance. 
Dem not progressive, e.g. Kuwait emir blocked on women's rights by imams.
Some of our best friends are not democratic.
Iraq lost dem 1958 and few remember it.  Federal system is real possibility -- so is monarchy.  2d son of Jordan king is available and Oxford educated -- for Iraq.

Question Time:
Linkage between 9/11 and saddam Hussein? 
Sorenson worth it to get rid of Saddam -- but little connection between Laden and Saddam.  Both obnoxious so doesn't matter if they had link. 
Record: Saddam was effectively deterred.
Sorenson: royal family rules Saudi by combo of brute force and benefits: eastern poor part of Saudi receieved newly constructed palaces with no occupants just for the construction jobs.
Saudi most Bedouin country, most conservative.  Dem would sweep aside modernity, to 7th century.
Analogy to occupation of Japan?
Record: seen as legitimate, and emperor legitimated Macarthur's policies; Japanese society homogeneous unlike mid east .  Took 7 yr. of mil rule -- and no act of violence against US.  Macarthur had 23 divisions and x00,000 men.
Sorenson: Stupidity index Saddam ignored warnings that US would take him out.  Syria smart -- Bashar Assad a doctor; kicked out Arafat when threatened by Israel -- and Syrian mil much worse than Iraqi now. 
US recently declined to exempt N.Korea from preventive war against rogue states.  N.Korea has had uranium for 50 yr. till got weapons 992.  1992 Framework agreement cheated on but N.Korea is deterrable.  Searching for multilateral leverage to deter.
Political Islam did not rear till pan-arabism failed in 1967 war of Nasser. 
Extreme version adopted when frustrated when other causes failed.  Islamists fail when they take over a country (Afghan and Iran) 
Israelis (Sorenson) should desist from targeted assassination and Pales govt. should arrest Hamas leaders.  The Israelis withdraw gradually including settlers.
Syria willing to discuss Golan and return -- less thorny.  Reduce fear factor.