2001-2002 Notes:
AWC Briefing | Robert Hunter | Christopher Meyer | Andy Mack | Larry Korb | 
2000 Notes: AWC Briefing

India & Pakistan by Amit Gupta, Visiting Professor.

Arab and Israel by Christopher Hemmer, Assoc. Prof. of  International Security.

Russia by Mary Hampton, Assoc. Prof. Political Science, University of Utah.

Christopher Hammer middle east
Ex Colgate & Cornell, psych & arab-israeli conflict.
War on terror in Jordan -- 2nd closest to US in region, intell valued by US in saving US lives. but Jordan works quietly, between Iraq & a hard place.  Jordan surrounded by more powerful states and dependent on Iraqi oil, chain of Iraqi oil tankers on road.  60% of pop is palestinian not Jordanian.  Govt. pro US but not pop 
Israelis used to terror, and suffered multiple WTC attacks in proportion to pop.  Israelis have little strategy v terror -- going in to destroy what they can, and return in 5 yrs to do the same.  Tactics overwhelm strategy.  Since Oslo 183, leadership on both sides has failed to  lead pop into acceptance of reality.  Complete mixture now of settlements, West bank checkpoints humiliating for palestinians.  Arafat has not prepared people for acceptance of any deal. -- need to accept partial solution.  PA is corrupt.  Now both sides in crisis management, no long term thinking.  US intervention not the answer -- sides would just blame the US instead of developing peace agreement.  Now in death spiral -- but violence is not yet so costly as to drive them to peace.. 
Mary Hampton, Kosovo
Europe security specialist, and esp changes in russia.  BUsh administration saw Russia as marginal player -- and is still a work in progress  and Rns viewed this with resentment -- coupled with domestic problems for Putin, still trying to consolidate his position.  Rn mil esp offended but since Sep 11 watershed, détente III: Putin had pushed anti-terrorism before this because of Chechnya problem.  Large Muslim pops and insurgencies in "Near abroad".  Russia nato council now, acknowledges shared interests with Russia, Russian intell useful in afghan, and central asia.  Putin has consolidated power, 3 yrs of growth, can now pay the military, can collect taxes, attacking mafia leaders.  Positive story.  Russian military would not meet with AWC group, though, because of resentment.  Putin uses undemocratic methods, so question whether democracy will last five years, after Putin.  Last year Russians brought up China all the time, but now ignores China , western centric foreign policy and lacks strategy for  Asia.  Oil  mostly in Siberia and far east, where increased Chinese immigration, will be problem in future and Russia now dependent  on oil, largest supplier to Germany.

Gupta, India.  800K troops massed on India Pakistan border, and both nuclear armed.  India will be IT giant.  GLobalization not all good, trade doesn't make nations more democratic, do not share same values.  India does respect dem and rules of international system.  Islamic insurgency in Kashmir, plus high altitude battlefield in north Kashmir.  .   RUnway at 11000' feeds troops at 20000' at cost of $1M per day.  Indirect artillery duels; and 90% of casualties are from avalanches.   Insurgents attacked Indian parliament, died but provoked India into sending entire army into the border.  Both sides have nuclear delivery systems, missiles, bombers, India two subs.  Both have good record of not transferring weapons to others, esp India.  Risk of terrorism  lower than other places, because both sides separate bombs from launchers.  They use movement as diplomatic signal.  In summer snow melts and troops can move vs terrorists, but hostilities not likely till Sept. because of extreme heat in desert. 
Question Time:
Hemmer: US welcomed in Afghan but Israel not welcomed in west bank by any Palestinian group.  Syrian threat is of sponsoring terrorism but not capable of attacking directly; northern Golan heights is still a flash point.  Danger is that Syrians have only huge chemical weapons program to strike back at Israel -- Conventional forces not strong. 
Gupta -- Indians still ahve problem with unions, foreign competition, standard car still 1954 Morris Oxford, a monopoly.  About 40M Indians live like n fr

6M Indians live like France, mass still poor.
Hemmer: failure of leadership on Isareaeli side, few Israelis support settlements -- but in 120 seat Knesset, 30 parties and current PM only has a few seats.  For settlement, PM must uproot settlements but will destroy any governing party. 

Hampton -- US needed Russians intell recently, has changed relations.

Putin westernizer, spent career in KGB in Germany w/ perfect language, oil dependency growing of Germany on Russia, Putin from st. Petersburg (western).  Will russians join EU?   Russians not sure and EU against.  80K pages of requirements and Russia far behind on dem, markets, civil military relations. 
Membership in EU is Combination of issues and interests.  Fissures in US, EU relations as always, but will constrain US leadership in war on terror. 
Duma increasingly pro nationalist and pro communists. 
Indian has electoral fraud and economic backwardness; problems in Kashmir.  In Islamic insurgent countries, governments have left no avenue of disagreement except in Mosques. 
 
 

AWac  4/16/02 Amb. Robt Hunter
Former amb to NATO

Alistair Buchan pointed to dates 1776 & 1941 as Amer character -- but Sep 11 equal in imp.
62 nationalities in 9/11 -- Brits lost more than all in Irish terrorism.
Saw quality of Amer troops in Bosnia. 
1991 coalitin of 41 countries, mostly not needed militarily but for poiltical regins, to give lie to Saddam's propaganda.
It was necessary to send a message to terrorists that they & supporters wold pay a price. 
Reestablished credibility of US -- others have got it wrong in Japan, Korea & Iraq.
Cold War end was most collosal strategic retreat in histry, by USSR. 
US incipient power mil pol, economic & cult.  US mil outspends all, incl. allies -- US increase this yr exceeds entire Brit mil budget.
More imp than collaps of Rome.
Few threats to homeland, no attention span in US after cold war.
US contain, confound comm & lead global economic -- total focus of cold war.  Now paradigm gap! Waht will replace this in US fon pol..
Most rapid engaget of country in international trade in history except meiji Japan.
Nap said do anything with bayonet except sit on it.
Use mil power in interests & values, incl. Glf War -- but even there Sen reluctant.  Kosovo had no strategic value except protecting rep of NATO -- but dominant consideration was limiting casualties -- and there none kiled in action.
NAFTA, WTO, NATO. 
NATO raatifies US as Europe power.. 
unprecented alliance.
Abolishes war between major powers for first time.
Merging E Europ into west, bringing them back into
Now when there is knock in ingiht, it is just that the house is burining down.
Partnership for peace soon to be succeeded by council of 20.
NATO force confronting Russia was turned 120 degrees to face Balkans.
Will NATO get involve in Russia today or in weapons of mass dstruction?
Homeland secrity needs to avoid destroying civil libs -- goal of asymmetrrical warfare.  Psych effect stupendoous - more than actual deaths on 9/11.
Axis of Evil term emphasizes WMD, in short term Iraq.  IIn 1991 if Iraq had WMD, we would have paid a higher price.
Need new international financial instn.
War on terror was to exclude IRA and ETA.
Initial response was to avid war by ctee --  but now administration realizes needs allies.   Even after win, become resp fr defeated pop eg in Afghan.  Europe allies se it differently -- sees enemies having middle eastern pop suppoort.
Bush 43 has been talking (eg in Monterrey, Mex) of alliances and need to earn spport in midle east.
Moral nterest n Isreael.  Colin Powell trying to return to US braoder interests from Israeli peace agreet -- but but any negotiated setttlet will involve US peace keepers.
Need strategic partnership with EU, because have resources.

Camp David II was too late.
US is nly potential leader capable of underwriting peac agreets.
Clnton was too late in starting, BUsh also.  Too many staff & pres papers are removed upon changeover -- eg in 1981, Iran hostage papers were sent to Atlanta.
Agreet in Eypt 2001 contains the obvious peace plan but not picked up by Bush.
Right of return f refugees more imp to Israelis than is Jerusalem, common with Palestinians.
Barak never actually extended offers -- and too much was lost between changovers n US and Israeli regimes.
Saddam has little to do with Al Qaeda.
His WMd are more sgnif coz dominate the Gulf.
Why end to Glf war? 1- highway of death. 2-commanders said nothing more militarily to do.  3-allowed Saddam to slaughter Kurds to protct Turkey.
Have missed oppys to deal with Iran when Hajemi offers we riase the bar before dealing.  Better to deal & build relationship to prevent Iraq getting WMD.
Still need halt to Arab Israeli fighting.
Need comprehensive non prolif regime from soup to nuts.  Nunn Lugar bill of Rn nonprofi program has been cut back .  Destructin of Iraqi reactor ini 1981 as good.  Little chance f Pelstinians getting Bmb is low but states can.  Only case of transferring nuke RA-Chi
 
 

Diplomacy has changed in 3 ways.
Blurred line between foreign and domestic policy.
Politics & economics blurred.
Foreign policy (what is done) and diplomacy (how done) have been dragged into limelight.
Contrast with subtle signals of old.  Metternich: on death of Russian ambassador, "what did he mean by that?"
Now age of CNN, ambassador discuss minor policy matters publicly.
440 staff in DC embassy and only few from diplomatic service -- experts on many types of policy.
New diplomacy requires new flavor in Wash.
Job: Pundit, saloon keeper, lobbyist
14,000 guests in embassy per year.
Atlee: visited US 1946, reported Democrats like Rubs were like Cons party.
With Al Capone: don't get the idea I'm knocking the American system.
Pursuing British national interest is different when in US -- 9/10 times working for common goals with US.
"War on Terror has made intimacy of relationship more intense than at any time in my career."
Thesis: Britain has been in permanent revolution since 1979 Thatcher, transformed country for better, bipartisan now under Blair.  Reversed decades of economic decline.  Deregulation, privatization, flexible labor market, conversion of Bank of England into Federal Reserve with independent rights of interest rates setting; devolution to Scottish & Welsh, and (god willing) Northern Ireland.
Tourism $4bn to see castles etc.
New cutting edge though -- modernization is watchword, e.g. fiber optics, info tech second only to US, also bio science sector.
Huge British economic success: lowest inflation and unemployment for a generation, long term interest rates, growth greatest in G7.
American investor: US business surging vote of confidence more than Asia or in major continentals, almost as much as in Latin Am.
British investment to AL $2.5Bn; to US, largest.
Difficult & contentious relationship with continent under Conservatives but improved under Labour.
(Ethnic Joke: Brit poll: vision of heaven & hell.
Mark Twain: a German joke is no laughing matter.)
Does European link weaken special relationship?  Absolutely not!
Gen. De Gaulle offered choice of Europe or America.  But there is not a choice -- more we lead in Europe, better allied partner to USA, & vice versa.
Is cornerstone of Brit foreign policy today.
New Labour: old virtues of free trade, NATO, stand firm for liberty, democracy, values of US.
Blair spoke a few days later, "we are with you from the beginning and will stay with you till end" true come hell or high water.
18th Century -- 1775 Edmund Burke sympathetic to US colonists, "strong as iron, light as air" ties across Atlantic.

Thanks to a record large group of Public & World Affairs Club students (at least 11) who attended the World Affairs Council tonight;  I am confident everyone found it valuable.

Prof. Andy Mack, now visiting at Harvard following several years as a deputy to Kofi Annan, the United Nations Secretary General, and a long standing academic expert on security issues, argued for a two pronged policy against terrorism.

Of course, he argued, the US must remove the current leadership of the Al Qaeda organization.  But it must also prevent the base from renewing its leadership, by removing the conditions of poverty and oppressive governments that breed young radical followers, antagonism to the US and would-be martyrs.  Economic development seems to lead to political development and eventually the authoritarian regimes become less repressive, taking away much of the stimulus to terrorism.

The US has a very low and declining rate of donating foreign aid, yet this is less expensive than coping with the outbreaks of terrorism or (much worse) genocide and civil strife around the world.  The nation state is still the primary actor in world affairs, and places limits on the United Nations.  [So much for Sam Huntington's thesis that the clash of civilizations is replacing the clash of nation states.]

Nonetheless, the US should pay its UN dues, and the UN perhaps needs a Rapid Reaction Force able to prevent disturbances escalating until fuller forces can be raised (typically with a three month lag, and subject always to national calculations of self interest.)

Prof. Mack illustrated his points with many examples from his multiple careers around the world, including Rwanda, Srbrenicia, East Timor and Iraq.  His previous careers have included RAF pilot, Antarctic base administrator, visiting professor at various universities, and author of books and articles.
-- Jeremy L.

John Albert Phd history Oxford, not Yugo specialist. but 4 yrs NATO. 
Aviano being expanded w/ NATO $ as control base for Balkans. Perhaps other failed states to come.
Ethnic hatred thesis is not cause of violence -- only when permitted by governments.
De-mining still going on by hand.
Based in Split. Top officer left Fed forces in fear for lives -- did not have to make difficult choice of patria.

Matt Rowe, German specialist, taught at Luther College. 
Slovakia & Poland trip. 
NATO EXPANSION TOUR.
P most imp in EE for NATO owing to size & dem support. Has ex-comt ldr now.  Country still below potential but rgcovering.
Slovakia needed tractors to pull fighters because poor. Still vendettas of thuggish leader to critical MPs & jts. Albright: critical of Slovakia sliding away from NATO.
New reform PM now elected.

Buck Grinter (Asia)
Phd UNC
VISITED S.KOREA & JAPAN
Japan most imp after UK : essential store for material for defense of Asia.  But changing US interest -- 10 yrs of economic & pol stagnation, no breakthrough in sight, serious if not critical.
S.Korea in 40 yrs has gone from $800 to $14000 pc income -- but stll subject to artillery barrage.
Kim Dae Jung now engaging w/ N.
But Taiwan has to work w/corrupt regime & engage w/China in endless talks.

Slovenia wants NATO but lacks force. Is land bridge between Italy & Hungary -- but cant be admitted w/out Romania.