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Dr. David Lai, AWC, "China," March 17. NEW
Dr. Bryant Shaw is associate Professor of History and Director of the General Studies Program at Troy State University in Troy, AL, where he teaches courses in African history, American history, and Western Civilizations.
He received his Ph.D. in African History from the University of Wisconsin-Madison.
Dr. Shaw’s Africa related experience has include service as a Peace Corps volunteer in the Republic of Botswana, Academic Dean of he Africa Center for Strategic Studies, which is a US Government initiative to help African military forces adjust to democratic principles of political rule, and as a consultant on African military issues for the Defense Department and US Embassies in Africa. He made numerous trips to Africa during his 29 years as an Air Force Officer.
Dr. Shaw has also taught African history and political issues at the
Air Force, Academy, the National University in Washington, DC, and the
Air War College.
notes by Zach Tribble, LAMP
What you say is not always what someone else hears. This especially applies to Africa where the culture as a whole is so much different.
Africa is 75 to 80% agriculture
Oil in Nigeria
Oil companies want stability, but don’t mind if the only method to stability is paying off the government
Civil wars in the Ivory Coast or anywhere in Africa
African policies vary incredibly from country to country; complications arise.
Africa is the world’s second largest continent and therefore
Sierra Leone is drastically different from Nigeria just as Sicilians are
to Swedes event though we tend to generalize Africa as a whole
U. N. Endorses both:
Nationalism is an ideology that does not always agree with economy
U.S. throws money at Africa but problems worsen
raw notes by Jeremy Lewis.
1971 watershed in US recognition change from PRC to RoC.
Kuomintang government changed.
Communist party changed in PRC.
Can China become with 1.3 Bn a prosperous country. Even the .3 Bn exceeds the US pop.
China's external behavior.
Can China become a responsible power? Definition problem.
Korean issue: US confronting NK but China taking a low profile approach.
CHina prefers to work in Chinese way, behind the scenes.
China most common country referred in AWC lectures.
Two reports July & Aug. 2002:
DOD mil power of CHina.
US congressional Commission n security aspects of relations.
Asia Week mag : Highway construction and automobile pollution. Only 16 yrs ago there were no highways -- now second only to US. Lawmaking: new because for 5000 yrs ruled by men, not law.
Last year China joined WTO. Significant because establishes rule of law meets stds. Accepts intellectual property, free market, etc. After many years, can now talk in same terms in negotiation. China has to abolish its internal party regs and adopt transparency.
Tradition of guilt until proven innocent. Police arrest brings shame to family.
Previously, confession brought reduced sentence -- but now right to remain silent. Reduced police beatings. Fundamental change.
Recent national people's party congress, invested titles (5 yrs) standing members of politburo. People's congress ratifies choice of party convention held earlier.
Chairman, premier, chair of people's congress ... Standing Politburo. (9)
below this group, Politburo (20)
then below is Central Party Committee. (1,000).
Then every 5 yrs, elected by 2,000 delgeates to convention.
Two branches of executive area ministers and provinces.
patronage system? Yes, no checks and balances.
Chinese very sensitive to separation of powers now and may introduce some form of it in future. Growing calls for news media as check. Many news outlets now.
Still unlimited terms but now talking about Sup Ct having second term, if not unlimited.
WHy China's economy not in trouble like russia and E. Europe.
1989 post Tiannanmen square, 77 of we diplomats defected, hoped this would speed reform. CP. felt really threatened at that time. But t regained control of China. Students were not prepared fr running country, and economic reform would have been derailed.
NO grassroots democracy; all Govs and mayor appointed from above.
1978, 2 yrs after Mao's death, party launched economic reform. But this could undermine principle of one party rule. If not reform, starvation.
Solution is to declare China is still in early stage of socialism.
Private businesses limited to 8 employees, otherwise capitalist. Then limit raised gradually. Almost all f GDP came from state enterprises -- but private sector has grown rapidly as many have quit state jobs and jumped into sea (private sector). By 1990 close to 50% -- in only twelve years.
Now turning family assets and state assets into stockholding companies. Chinese learned from US that they could control Co with 5% of shares -- until Govt. came in & bought 25%.
Tibet? Mst Chinese see it as part of China ad expect Taiwan to be reunited --- long part of culture.
Tibetans different race from Han chinese -- who have assimilated many others e.g. Mongols. Buddhism still deep in Tibetans.
1950 invasion was to Chinese just a consolidation of Middle Kingdom.
Vassal states had had to pay tribute to Emperor for long period. Dalai Lama now negotiating about some autonomy but no longer seeking absolute independence -- trying to negotiate a settlement. Tibet occupies a very important geo-strategic position and this makes the stakes quite high.
The Cultural Revolution was a disaster after two years (1968) and Army had to be called in to regain control. Sent mass of youth to countryside to do labor (reeducation was a myth except to work) as a means to diffuse situation, All universities closed for nearly a decade and there was great dislocation. David di
personal experiences in cultural revolution. Factory shift work n machine made in 1930s in Russia. 2 yrs later 1978, cult rev ended and deng launched econ reform. 1966 all schools closed down for decade -- so students then tried to catch up, largely self taught. 1978 took exams, standing room only at soccer field awaiting test, only 1% could get to university. Lai studied English for years, which then saved him -- one of 300 of 70,000 passing English test -- got him English place in college.
Many gave up after three years because of intense competition.
Chinese look at NK as like their own isolation and restriction in latter part of cult rev.
Monthly salary was 24 Yuan. Chinese can survive on very low incomes.
Russian and Chinese changes are very different - Russians had hard landing n political change, but still economy got nowhere. Chinese grateful to not follow that example.
Chinese sense of freedom does extend t some -- brother a high ranking official in a province was able to visit US, but lower level people do not have real elections.
50 years time?
one china, several chinas?
Depends on 60 yr. olds in power, likely to run 2 x5 yr. terms in power. Policy is very clear, will try to double econ development to $900 per yr. per capita and likely to do so. Will become a middle class power.
Owing to world terrorism, China now attractive to world business.
REform also on right track.
Corruption difficult because no checks & balances, one hand cannot hit the other very hard.
Unemployment requires reorganization (layoffs) in state agencies. Expect early retirements.
100s of Millions of peasants moved to cities. Schools were hotels at night, in summer sleeping outside railroad station.
I somehow have confidence they will keep this situation under control. Americans like more development of political freedom .. workers cannot demonstrate, strike, join unions. But dangerous to Chinese -- disruptive. Could derail economic reforms.
Emergence of middle class eventually, better educated, will ask for more political participation.
Party corrupted but leaders genuinely committed to change. Nobody sees any alternative, so opposition has no chance. All 9 are engineers.
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