See also: Jeremy Lewis, "Dilemma in the Desert." March 17 (to Rotary International.)

complex game of maneuver in which the goal is to get other players to do what you want them to do. 

Number of players varies and rules are loose.

Unilateral use of force is a violation of modern norms -- but penalty is uncertain.

One sided versus many sided dealings in international relations.

No longer limited to states: newer term world politics includes NGOs, ranging from Greenpeace to Al Qaeda.

expanded geographic scope: not just European powers.

parliamentary diplomacy (In UN, debating and voting sometimes replaces negotiation. In 1994, all UN P5 called on N. Korea to show evidence of not processing uranium.)

democratized diplomacy: not merely elite diplomats, but legislatures, interest groups and public opinion.

open diplomacy (W. Wilson.) fits well with democracy; less used by leaders to mislead own people.  But negotiations still conducted secretly.

leader-to-leader diplomacy.  W. Wilson first POTUS to travel abroad, now routine.  Breakthroughs: 1978 Camp David accords; 2000 Korean summit symbolism. But risky -- leaders can misunderstand each other, egos may clash (Kissinger).  (e.g. Clinton ad-libbed N. Korea would not be allowed to hold nuclear bomb -- then was informed they already had one.) 

public diplomacy

multilateral diplomacy: congress system, conferences, UNO.

has progressed to multilateral diplomacy.

Beginnings in congress of Vienna, 1814.

Hague conferences on peace, 1899 & 1907, with 44 actors including non-Europeans.

President Woodrow Wilson's ideal of self-determination and creation of League of Nations led to multilateralism.

UN today has almost 200 members.

Global cooperation is essential for tackling some global issues such as environment, world trade.

Small countries have greater influence in multilateralism.

Communications technology permits more frequent contacts.

Lack of interest in environmental or arms control treaties.

Pres. Bush's need for moral clarity in dealing with evil, disposed towards going alone..

Exception in dealing with UK's PM Blair.

Exception in stating US forces would not be used for nation building (implies UN).

Initial reaction to Sep 11 atrocity was to use unilateral force.

Bush demands "forward leaning" posture, urgency in building force in Afghanistan, fits better with unilateralism.

All presidential speeches on Al Qaeda were directed towards US public rather than the world community, until the UN speech, Nov 2002.

State Dept under Colin Powell, as always, more multilateralist.

CIA's need for intelligence on Al Qaeda networks required at least multiple bilateral deals (Indonesia, Pakistan, France, Germany, UK).

Defense Department's need for forward basing of CSAR teams led to multiple bilateral agtreeements, e.g. Uzbekistan.

Bush is isolated on his goal.of action on Iraq being regime change -- even British PM Blair's public goal has been reduction of Weapons of Mass Destruction, not regime change.

Unilateralism risks winning a war at the expense of political losses elswhere.  European public reaction to Bush initially has not been favorable. 

CIA plan for use of local Afghan forces shifts towards multilateral relations

after fall of Kabul, need for allies as peacekeepers

Switch in direction towards Iraq requires UN inspectors, allied intelligence.

Woodward, Bob.  2002.  Bush at War.  NY: Simon & Schuster.

Notice how Bush's meetings of foreign policy principals, focussed heavily on unilateralism, then bilateral agreements as military bases were needed, gradually turned to multilateralism as planning turned to peacekeeping and nationbuilding in Afghanistan after the war.

• Americans’ negative perceptions:  status of women, strict religion.
• Saudis- US crime rates, public morality, drunkenness,
• Geography:  Remote-even coastline.  Most religiously conservative

• Most conservatives found in rural areas (as in US).
• Cave dwellers in rural S. gorges near Yemen- for protection
• Eg. Access to village only by rope
• Wahhabism fits with tribal culture
• Post-prophet technology is forbidden, but Al Saud insisted 
• on radio, then TV, even this God is only one to make images of man
• Al Saud modernizing influence, but women’s education (segregated) almost cost a coup d’ etat
• Saudi hijackers anti-government as well as anti-US
• Founder married 52 brides from 52 tribes. 
• Then bought people off.
• Staying in power by this means also funded Al Qaeda.

• Government only is exporter of oil- probably over 300 Bu be.  But 
• They pump little.  They pump more or less to regulate 
• market often in harmony with US.
• Iraq 2nd with 98 Bbl. Others far behind.
• Alberta and Orinoco have largest supplies but expensive to refine

• Iran and Iraq neighbors to the North.  Both working on weapons of mass destruction
• Saudi religious conservatives inhibit a close relationship with US.
• Deal with Saudi family because replacement government much worse on rights 

•  Wahhabism Reaction against pagan influences 
• All of Islam is fundamental, but Wahhabism is most extreme
• Wahhabism means Unitarianism
• Family corruption and debauchery when away in Europe
• Saudis don’t work many foreign workers, guest workers
• Herding tradition only.
• (foreign workers) Pakis, Thais, Yemenis, Americans, Canadians, and French
• University for prestige (or Islam) rather than for work; People do not fail or take exams
• More prestigious to import US workers than Yemenis
• Only women can serve other women so women guest workers
• Economy limited by lack of women even though female education is quite good
• Peace Brokering sounds good at diplomacy in 80’s and 90’s but lately less successful
• Encouraging revolt in Iraq, but unlikely because of repression Even among generals.
• Iraqi population makes democracy difficult- large minorities
• Kurds in north where oil- also in turkey, fear of Kurdistan
• Sunni…….
• Shia Majority anti US in long run
• Iran- now pro American population and even Islamic Rock- till placed on axis of evil

Student Comments

• reduce dependence on oil, or diversify sources
• try to press Saudi into gradual reform
• press then on American values, more important than economic dependence

• Only 12% of US consumption of oil from gulf—Can, Mex, Ven, Nig, Ra
• Only 9% of Pakis support US
• Syrian regime actually helping interrogate, including one captured 
• Ger—US encouraged Ger to send to Syria
• Palestinian Council controls Arafat 
• Palestinians not allowed into Saudi because destabilizing
• Palestinians economy shrinking worst in the world
• Nobody has leverage over Palestine
• Population in Israel is Palestinian at most pessimistic level ever

Student Comments

• oil Companies influence on US/ embargo on Saudi to change regime
• Saudis depend on US for arms (largest share of market)
• US sells most advanced fighters
• But Saudis trade in consumer goods is with pacific rim, not US, and declined last year

• ex dir, Harvard CFIA
• Food security
• - min is 2350 cals per day, UN.
• - 2850 cals per person day avail but uneven distribn.
• 54 countries fall below std
• -earth resources could support 12 Bn pop -- but only w/perfect prodn & distribn.
• Top 5 nations have 3,700 cals avail.US lgst food exporter & importer.(Latin veggies.)
• beef takes 10 x grain.
• increase food production by programs for trade, subsidy, transport, direct food aid, micro-finance, nutrition education.
• Food aid is 22% of int aid, down to 3% in 1990s because problematic.
• Groameem bank in Bangla Desh.
• -Agri protected all countries
• -rural pop gets pol favors.
• -labeling of food major instrument of trade protection.
• -CAP 2/3 of EU deficit, growing.
• -US oprice of sugar is well above world price.
• -Rural constits most constant, have longest serving reps.
• -1% of US farmers collect majority of subsidies.
• -- often paid NOT to grow crops.
• --BioTech & Food: farm to pharm.
• began w/ Indian wheat production in 1960s, quadruped, now exporter.
• - 75M acres of GM crops, much under Monsanto.
• -small farmers v corps, carcingoens.
• - patent requires novelty, utility & inventiveness.

A. What does "human rights" mean?
B. Justifications and origins

a. Western Views
b. Other views

C. Two major perspectives: Universalist versus cultural relativist view
D. Where do "women’s rights" fit in?

A. Is the glass half-full or half-empty?
B. Initial progress beginning in 1948—Universal Declaration of Human Rights
C. Focus on women’s rights beginning in 1975 with United Nations a. Convention on the Elimination of all Forms of Discrimination Against Women (CEDAW) adopted in 1979
b. Violence against women (war crimes) recognized separately in 1993 D. Continued efforts by international governmental and nongovernmental groups

A. Domestic policies versus international policies
B. Not at the forefront in international organizations

a. International family planning programs a major obstacle 

C. Limited pressure on allies and other states

a. A minor consideration weighed against other concerns
b. The impact of "the war on terrorism"

A. Should we be concerned about women’s rights specifically?

a. Links between poverty, development, and women’s status
b. Development of democratic societies for the future
c. Links to breeding ground for terrorists

a. Education?
b. Laws?
c. Coordinated policies?

• People are in constant fear of each other
• Have no economy or technology- cannot support itself
• No national cohesion- very divided and constant homicide
• The map is seen differently by citizens
• Never able to give more than take
• United country could unite to kill you
• Centralized government was attempted many times, but all failed
• Same thing occurred in Ireland, but people got tired of not having anything and reunited.
• People in Afghanistan are tired of land mines, warlords, firing mortars, and groups demanding taxes for allowing others to pass- some make money from insecurities (drugs) others are all about the glory; both cause problems and threaten security
• No industry --missed industrial age and post industrial age (this causes smuggling and drug trade)
• Drug trade ensures massive money for easy work (we must hurt the trafficking of drugs to stop drug trade)
• Could start crop substitution, but the money isn’t in the new crop
• Military buildup- warlords are opposed to it (Karzai has to little power outside of Kabul)
• Money, Money, and more money around $80 billion will probably be needed
• Northern Alliance; enemy of Taliban but still warlords against democracy and working with "evil" Iranians

• Money must constantly be pushed in as well as pressure for human rights and democracy but America wants quick and easy solutions not long term investments
• Afghanistan is one of the hardest places to work with but that’s how Americans want it but the road to hell is paved with good intentions
• Only the U.S. has the power, money, and interest to even think about aiding Afghanistan
• Afghanistan is the easy part to the war on terrorism, now terrorists have blended into society, but if U.S. withdraws from Afghanistan, Afghanistan will fall and turn into a footnote- not much of a victory but it may be all we get
• Afghanistan should have been a priority beforehand because it is the breeding ground for such groups as Al Qaeda and the Taliban and may bite us again
• Keep religion in mind, poverty attracts religious fervor, people with nothing to lose want something to make them part of a greater collective (just like communism)

ECSC (1950s) via EEC (1960s) & EC (1970s) to EU (1990s).

Functional integration (1950s) strong but narrow

Coal, Iron & Steel

Agriculture: CAP is 2/3 of budget

Police: Interpol (1960s) to Schengen (1990s)

Economic cooperation (1960s - 1970s) broad but shallower

EEC and EFTA (1960s - 70s)

ERM (1980s - 1990s)

Single market, Maastricht agreement (1992)

Euro (developed 1992-2002)

Political Integration: (1990s-?): broad but shallow

Federalism versus Subsidiarity, 

Elites pro-European v masses' nationalism

Supranational Commission versus Intergovernmental Councils.

Eurocrats versus democratic deficit.

EU negotiations are uninspiring politically

Occasional referenda on membership (political cover for elites?)

Judicial Integration?

ECJ and ICC

Growing trend of judicial review of constitutionality

Comparisons with United States integration.

Federalism v states' rights

Judicial review

Powerful congress

Weak executive

US was a developing economy when Constitution ratified.

US developed single currency and single language early on.

Current period like EU's previous decisive leaps, e.g. 1989-91 with Fall of USSR.

Enlargement certain -- but nature of integration?

Collective Sovereignty (federalism) versus international cooperation (Intergovernmentalism).

15 members rising with new 10 to total 25, reaching to Russian border.

Others waiting: Bulgaria, Romania & Turkey.

Federal institutions: Euro, Central Bank (ECB), Court of Justice (ECJ).

Germany, Italy (pre-Berlusconi) plus small countries.

Intergovernmental: foreign policy, security, defense.

UK, France, Italy (under Berlusconi)

core: "reinvigorated Franco-German couple" [not looking so good since Feb. 2003 Iraq war issue.]

Byzantine decisionmaking.

Convention on Future of Europe (Giscard) 2002-2003 will plan.

July 2002 parity with dollar raised confidence and inflow of capital.

Price stability within Eurozone is main goal, via common interest rate.

Euro likely to become a global reserve currency.

12 of 15 members joined Eurozone (Not UK, Sweden & Denmark.)

Dollar has fallen rather than Euro rising -- but this raises political prestige of Euro.

Big bang of 10 members 2004, assuming negotiations conclude on:

budget, agri subsidies, structural-cohesion (regional) funds

Languages: 21 officially would need 420 combinations of translation.

Few East Europeans speak French =>> English & German.

Real seats of power at present:

Commission

Council of Ministers

Includes Euro Council (heads) & Council of Foreign Ministers.

COREPER (15 ambassadors.) -- less effective if enlarged?

BUT: smalls can veto on taxation, foreign affairs, spending on infrastructure.

Changing system:

Small countries to grow from 10 to 19

large countries to grow from 5 to 6 with Poland.

Population will be 2/3 in large countries.

French call for informal Directorate of large countries.

Germans will be physically in center with eastward expansion.

Smalls want stronger federal Commission and Parliament.

Enlargement tensions:

by 2006, new members may qualify for Eurozone.

economic goals of growth inflation and debt may vary.

Qualified majority vote must be re-balanced.

majority = 75% of total votes

majority of members

62% of EU population.

French plan of core cabinet & periphery.

Few antifederalists are in EU jobs or Parliament.

Immigration and labor market major tension.

Sex worker trafficking a difficult issue.

Welfare shrinking, population aging, low econ. growth

Foreign Policy:

Tensions with US (e.g., ICC)

Partnership with US

EU leadership potential.