Telegraph, The [2nd] Blix statement
in full
(Filed: 15/02/2003)
Here is the full text of the statement by Hans Blix to the
UN Security Council:
Mr President, since I reported to the Security Council on
27 January Unmovic [the UN weapons inspection agency]
has had two further weeks of operational and analytical
work in New York and active inspections in Iraq.
This brings the total period of inspections to 11 weeks. Since
then we have also listened on the 5th of February to the
presentation to the council by the US Secretary of State
and the discussion that followed.
Lastly, Dr ElBaradei
and I have held another round of talks in Baghdad with
our counterparts and with Vice President Ramadan on the
8th of February.
Let me begin today's briefing with a short account of the
work performed by Unmovic in Iraq. We have continued
to build up our capabilities. The regional office in Mosul is
now fully operational at its temporary headquarters.
Plans for a regional office in Basra are being developed.
Our Hercules L 100 aircraft continues to operate routine
flights between Baghdad and Larnaca. The eight
helicopters are fully operational. With the resolution of the
problems raised by Iraq for the transportation of minders
into the low-fly zones our mobility in these zones has
improved.
We expect increased utilisation of
the helicopters. The number of
Iraqi minders during inspections
had also reached a ratio as high as
five per inspector. During the talks
in January in Baghdad the Iraqi
side agreed to keep the ratio to
about one-to-one. The situation
has improved.
Since we have arrived in Iraq we
have conducted more than 400 inspections covering more
than 300 sites. All inspections were performed without
notice and access was almost always provided promptly.
In no case have we seen convincing evidence that the
Iraqi side knew in advance that the inspectors were
coming.
The inspections have taken place throughout Iraq at
industrial sites, ammunition depots, research centres,
universities, presidential sites, mobile laboratories,
privates houses, missile productions facilities, military
camps and agricultural sites.
At all sites which had been inspected before 1998, rebase
lining activities were performed.
This included the identification of the function and
contents of each building, new or old, at a site.
It also included verification of previously-tagged
equipment, application of seals and tags, taking samples
and discussions with the site's personnel regarding past
and present activities.
At certain sites ground-penetrating radar was used to look
for underground structures or buried equipment.
Through the inspections conducted
so far we have obtained a good
knowledge of the industrial and
scientific landscape of Iraq, as well
as of its missile capability. But as
before, we do not know every
cave and corner.
Inspections are effectively helping to bridge the gaps in
knowledge that arose due to the absence of inspections
between December 1998 and November 2002. More than
200 chemical and more than 100 biological samples have
been collected at different sites. Three-quarters of these
have been screened using our own analytical laboratory
capabilities at the Baghdad centre.
The results to date have been consistent with Iraqi
declarations. We have now commenced the process of
destroying approximately 50 litres of mustard gas
declared by Iraq that was being kept under Unmovic's
seal at the Muthanna site.
One third of the quantity has already been destroyed. The
laboratory quantity of thiodiglycol, a mustard gas
precursor which we found at another site, has also been
destroyed.
The total number of staff in Iraq
now exceeds 250, from 60
countries. This includes about 100
Unmovic inspectors, 15 IAEA
[International Atomic Energy
Agency] inspectors 50 air crew
and 65 support staff.
Mr President, in my 27 January
update to the Council I said that it
seemed from our experience that
Iraq had decided in principle to
provide co-operation on process
most importantly and prompt
access to all sites and assistance
to Unmovic in the establishment of
the necessary infrastructure. This impression remains and
we note that access to sites has so far been without
problems, including those that have never been declared
or inspected, as well as the Presidential sites and private
residences.
In my last updating, I also said that a decision to
co-operate on substance was indispensable in order to
bring, through inspection, the disarmament task to
completion and to set the monitoring system on a firm
course. Such co-operation, as I have noted, requires
more than the opening of doors.
In the words of resolution 1441 (2002) - it requires
immediate, unconditional and active efforts by Iraq to
resolve existing questions of disarmament - either by
presenting remaining proscribed items and programmes
for elimination or by presenting convincing evidence that
they have been eliminated.
In the current situation, one would expect Iraq to be
eager to comply. While we were in Baghdad, we met a
delegation from the government of South Africa. It was
there to explain how South Africa gained the confidence
of the world in its dismantling of the nuclear weapons
programme, by a wholehearted co-operation over two
years with IAEA inspectors. I have just learned that Iraq
has accepted an offer by South Africa to send a group of
experts for further talks.
How much, if any, is left of Iraq's
weapons of mass destruction and
related proscribed items and
programmes? So far, Unmovic has
not found any such weapons, only
a small number of empty chemical
munitions, which should have been
declared and destroyed. Another
matter - and one of great
significance - is that many
proscribed weapons and items are
not accounted for.
To take an example, a document,
which Iraq provided, suggested to
us that some 1,000 tonnes of
chemical agent were "unaccounted
for". One must not jump to the conclusion that they exist.
However, that possibility is also not excluded. If they
exist, they should be presented for destruction. If they do
not exist, credible evidence to that effect should be
presented.
We are fully aware that many governmental intelligence
organisations are convinced and assert that proscribed
weapons, items and programmes continue to exist. The
US Secretary of State presented material in support of
this conclusion. Governments have many sources of
information that are not available to inspectors.
Inspectors, for their part, must base their reports only on
evidence, which they can, themselves, examine and
present publicly. Without evidence, confidence cannot
arise.
Mr President, in my earlier briefings, I have noted that
significant outstanding issues of substance were listed in
two Security Council documents from early 1999
(S/1999/94 and S/1999/356) and should be well known to
Iraq. I referred, as examples, to the issues of anthrax,
the nerve agent VX and long-range missiles, and said that
such issues "deserve to be taken seriously by Iraq rather
than being brushed aside ".
The declaration submitted by Iraq on 7 December last
year, despite its large volume, missed the opportunity to
provide the fresh material and evidence needed to
respond to the open questions. This is perhaps the most
important problem we are facing. Although I can
understand that it may not be easy for Iraq in all cases to
provide the evidence needed, it is not the task of the
inspectors to find it. Iraq itself must squarely tackle this
task and avoid belittling the questions.
In my January update to the Council, I referred to the Al
Samoud 2 and the Al Fatah missiles, reconstituted casting
chambers, construction of a missile engine test stand and
the import of rocket engines, which were all declared to
Unmovic by Iraq.
I noted that the Al Samoud 2 and the Al Fatah could very
well represent prima facie cases of proscribed missile
systems, as they had been tested to ranges exceeding
the 150-kilometre limit set by the Security Council. I also
noted that Iraq had been requested to cease flight tests of
these missiles until Unmovic completed a technical
review.
Earlier this week, Unmovic missile experts met for two
days with experts from a number of Member States to
discuss these items. The experts concluded unanimously
that, based on the data provided by Iraq, the two
declared variants of the Al Samoud 2 missile were
capable of exceeding 150 kilometres in range. This
missile system is therefore proscribed for Iraq pursuant
to resolution 687 (1991) and the monitoring plan adopted
by resolution 715 (1991).
As for the Al Fatah, the experts found that clarification of
the missile data supplied by Iraq was required before the
capability of the missile system could be fully assessed.
With respect to the casting chambers, I note the
following: Unscom ordered and supervised the destruction
of the casting chambers, which had been intended for use
in the production of the proscribed Badr-2000 missile
system. Iraq has declared that it has reconstituted these
chambers.
The experts have confirmed that the reconstituted casting
chambers could still be used to produce motors for
missiles capable of ranges significantly greater than 150
kilometres. Accordingly, these chambers remain
proscribed.
The experts also studied the data on the missile engine
test stand that is nearing completion and have assessed it
to be capable of testing missile engines with thrusts
greater than that of the SA-2 engine. So far, the test
stand has not been associated with a proscribed activity.
On the matter of the 380 SA-2 missile engines imported
outside of the export/import mechanism and in
contravention of paragraph 24 of resolution 687 (1991),
Unmovic inspectors were informed by Iraq during an
official briefing that these engines were intended for use
in the Al Samoud 2 missile system, which has now been
assessed to be proscribed. Any such engines configured
for use in this missile system would also be proscribed.
I intend to communicate these findings to the Government
of Iraq.
At the meeting in Baghdad on 8 and 9 February, the Iraqi
side addressed some of the important outstanding
disarmament issues and gave us a number of papers,
e.g. regarding anthrax and growth material, the nerve
agent VX and missile production. Experts who were
present from our side studied the papers during the
evening of 8 February and met with Iraqi experts in the
morning of 9 February for further clarifications.
Although no new evidence was provided in the papers and
no open issues were closed through them or the expert
discussions, the presentation of the papers could be
indicative of a more active attitude focusing on important
open issues.
The Iraqi side suggested that the problem of verifying the
quantities of anthrax and two VX-precursors, which had
been declared unilaterally destroyed, might be tackled
through certain technical and analytical methods.
Although our experts are still assessing the suggestions,
they are not very hopeful that it could prove possible to
assess the quantities of material poured into the ground
years ago. Documentary evidence and testimony by staff
that dealt with the items still appears to be needed.
Not least against this background, a letter of 12 February
from Iraq's National Monitoring Directorate may be of
relevance. It presents a list of 83 names of participants
"in the unilateral destruction in the chemical field, which
took place in the summer of 1991". As the absence of
adequate evidence of that destruction has been and
remains an important reason why quantities of chemicals
have been deemed "unaccounted for", the presentation of
a list of persons who can be interviewed about the actions
appears useful and pertains to co-operation on substance.
I trust that the Iraqi side will put
together a similar list of names of
persons who participated in the
unilateral destruction of other
proscribed items, notably in the
biological field.
The Iraqi side also informed us
that the commission, which had
been appointed in the wake of our
finding 12 empty chemical weapons warheads, had had its
mandate expanded to look for any still existing proscribed
items. This was welcomed.
A second commission, we learnt, has now been appointed
with the task of searching all over Iraq for more
documents relevant to the elimination of proscribed items
and programmes. It is headed by the former Minister of
Oil, General Amer Rashid, and is to have very extensive
powers of search in industry, administration and even
private houses.
The two commissions could be useful tools to come up
with proscribed items to be destroyed and with new
documentary evidence. They evidently need to work fast
and effectively to convince us, and the world, that it is a
serious effort.
The matter of private interviews was discussed at length
during our meeting in Baghdad. The Iraqi side confirmed
the commitment, which it made to us on 20 January, to
encourage persons asked to accept such interviews,
whether in or out of Iraq. So far, we have only had
interviews in Baghdad.
A number of persons have declined to be interviewed,
unless they were allowed to have an official present or
were allowed to tape the interview. Three persons that
had previously refused interviews on Unmovic's terms,
subsequently accepted such interviews just prior to our
talks in Baghdad on 8 and 9 February. These interviews
proved informative.
No further interviews have since been accepted on our
terms. I hope this will change. We feel that interviews
conducted without any third party present and without
tape recording would provide the greatest credibility.
At the recent meeting in Baghdad, as on several earlier
occasions, my colleague Dr ElBaradei and I have urged
the Iraqi side to enact legislation implementing the UN
prohibitions regarding weapons of mass destruction.
This morning we had a message that a Presidential
decree has now been issued containing prohibitions with
regard to importation and production of biological,
chemical and nuclear weapons. We have not yet had time
to study the details of the text of the decree.
Mr President, I should like to make some comments on
the role of intelligence in connection with inspections in
Iraq.
A credible inspection regime requires that Iraq provide
full co-operation on "process" - granting immediate
access everywhere to inspectors - and on substance,
providing full declarations supported by relevant
information and material and evidence.
However, with the closed society in Iraq of today and the
history of inspections there, other sources of information,
such as defectors and government intelligence agencies
are required to aid the inspection process.
I remember myself how, in 1991, several inspections in
Iraq, which were based on information received from a
Government, helped to disclose important parts of the
nuclear weapons programme.
It was realised that an
international organisation
authorised to perform inspections
anywhere on the ground could
make good use of information
obtained from governments with
eyes in the sky, ears in the ether,
access to defectors, and both eyes
and ears on the market for
weapons-related material.
It was understood that the
information residing in the intelligence services of
governments could come to very active use in the
international effort to prevent proliferation of weapons of
mass destruction. This remains true and we have by now
a good deal of experience in the matter.
International organisations need to analyse such
information critically and especially benefit when it comes
from more than one source. The intelligence agencies, for
their part, must protect their sources and methods.
Those who provide such information must know that it will
be kept in strict confidence and be known to very few
people. Unmovic has achieved good working relations
with intelligence agencies and the amount of information
provided has been gradually increasing.
However, we must recognise that there are limitations
and that misinterpretations can occur.
Intelligence information has been useful for Unmovic. In
one case, it led us to a private home where documents
mainly relating to laser enrichment of uranium were
found. In other cases, intelligence has led to sites where
no proscribed items were found.
Even in such cases, however, inspection of these sites
were useful in proving the absence of such items and in
some cases the presence of other items - conventional
munitions.
It showed that conventional arms
are being moved around the
country and that movements are
not necessarily related to weapons
of mass destruction.
The presentation of intelligence
information by the US Secretary of
State suggested that Iraq had
prepared for inspections by
cleaning up sites and removing
evidence of proscribed weapons
programmes.
I would like to comment only on
one case, which we are familiar
with, namely, the trucks identified by analysts as being
for chemical decontamination at a munitions depot. This
was a declared site, and it was certainly one of the sites
Iraq would have expected us to inspect.
We have noted that the two satellite images of the site
were taken several weeks apart.
The reported movement of munitions at the site could just
as easily have been a routine activity as a movement of
proscribed munitions in anticipation of imminent
inspection.
Our reservation on this point does not detract from our
appreciation of the briefing.
Yesterday, Unmovic informed the Iraqi authorities of its
intention to start using the U-2 surveillance aircraft early
next week under arrangements similar to those Unscom
had followed.
We are also in the process of working out modalities for
the use of the French Mirage aircraft starting late next
week and for the drones supplied by the German
Government.
The offer from Russia of an Antonov aircraft, with night
vision capabilities, is a welcome one and is next on our
agenda for further improving Unmovic's and IAEA's
technical capabilities.
These developments are in line with suggestions made in
a non-paper recently circulated by France, suggesting a
further strengthening of the inspection capabilities.
It is our intention to examine the possibilities for
surveying ground movements, notably by trucks.
In the face of persistent intelligence reports for instance
about mobile biological weapons production units, such
measures could well increase the effectiveness of
inspections.
Unmovic is still expanding its capabilities, both in terms of
numbers of staff and technical resources.
On my way to the recent Baghdad meeting, I stopped in
Vienna to meet 60 experts, who had just completed our
general training course for inspectors.
They came from 22 countries, including Arab countries.
Mr President, Unmovic is not infrequently asked how
much more time it needs to complete its task in Iraq.
The answer depends upon which task one has in mind -
the elimination of weapons of mass destruction and
related items and programmes, which were prohibited in
1991 - the disarmament task - or the monitoring that no
new proscribed activities occur.
The latter task, though not often focused upon, is highly
significant - and not controversial.
It will require monitoring, which is "ongoing", that is,
open-ended until the Council decides otherwise.
By contrast, the task of "disarmament" foreseen in
resolution 687 (1991) and the progress on "key remaining
disarmament tasks" foreseen in resolution 1284 (1999) as
well as the "disarmament obligations", which Iraq was
given a "final opportunity to comply with" under resolution
1441 (2002), were always required to be fulfilled in a
shorter time span.
Regrettably, the high degree of co-operation required of
Iraq for disarmament through inspection was not
forthcoming in 1991.
Despite the elimination, under Unscom and IAEA
supervision, of large amounts of weapons,
weapons-related items and installations over the years,
the task remained incomplete, when inspectors were
withdrawn almost eight years later at the end of 1998.
If Iraq had provided the necessary co-operation in 1991,
the phase of disarmament - under resolution 687 (1991) -
could have been short and a decade of sanctions could
have been avoided.
Today, three months after the adoption of resolution 1441
(2002), the period of disarmament through inspection
could still be short, if "immediate, active and unconditional
co-operation" with Unmovic and the IAEA were to be
forthcoming.
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