Telegraph, "The Blix report
in full"
(Filed: 27/01/2003)
The resolution adopted by the Security Council on Iraq in
November last year asks Unmovic and the IAEA to
“update” the Council 60 days after the resumption of
inspections. This is today.
The updating, it seems, forms part of an assessment by
the Council and its Members of the results, so far, of the
inspections and of their role as a means to achieve
verifiable disarmament in Iraq.
As this is an open meeting of the Council, it may be
appropriate briefly to provide some background for a
better understanding of where we stand today. With your
permission, I shall do so. I begin by recalling that
inspections as a part of a disarmament
process in Iraq started in 1991, immediately after the Gulf
War. They went on for eight years until December 1998,
when inspectors were withdrawn.
Thereafter, for nearly four years there were no
inspections. They were resumed only at the end of
November last year. While the fundamental aim of
inspections in Iraq has always been to verify
disarmament, the successive resolutions adopted by the
Council over the years have varied somewhat in
emphasis and approach. In 1991, resolution 687 (1991),
adopted unanimously as a part of the ceasefire after the
Gulf War, had five major elements.
The three first related to disarmament. They called for
declarations by Iraq of its programmes of weapons of
mass destruction and long range missiles; verification of
the declarations through Unscom and the IAEA;
supervision by these organizations of the destruction or
the elimination of proscribed programmes and items.
After the completion of the disarmament: · the Council
would have authority to proceed to a lifting of the
sanctions (economic restrictions); and the inspecting
organizations would move to long-term ongoing
monitoring and verification. Resolution 687, like the
subsequent resolutions I shall refer to, required
co-operation by Iraq but such was often withheld or given
grudgingly.
Unlike South Africa, which decided on its own to eliminate
its nuclear weapons and welcomed inspection as a means
of creating confidence in its disarmament, Iraq appears
not to have come to a genuine acceptance – not even
today – of the disarmament, which was demanded of it
and which it needs to carry out to win the confidence of
the world and to live in peace. As we know, the twin
operation ‘declare and verify’, which was prescribed in
resolution 687, too often turned into a game of ‘hide and
seek’.
Rather than just verifying declarations and supporting
evidence, the two inspecting organizations found
themselves engaged in efforts to map the weapons
programmes and to search for evidence through
inspections, interviews, seminars, inquiries with suppliers
and intelligence organizations. As a result, the
disarmament phase was not completed in the short time
expected. Sanctions remained and took a severe toll until
Iraq accepted the Oil for Food Programme and the
gradual development of that programme mitigated the
effects of the sanctions.
The implementation of resolution
687 nevertheless brought about
considerable disarmament results.
It has been recognized that more
weapons of mass destruction were
destroyed under this resolution
than were destroyed during the
Gulf War: large quantities of
chemical weapons were destroyed
under Unscom supervision before
1994.
While Iraq claims – with little
evidence – that it destroyed all
biological weapons unilaterally in
1991, it is certain that Unscom
destroyed large biological weapons
production facilities in 1996.
The large nuclear infrastructure
was destroyed and the fissionable material was removed
from Iraq by the IAEA. One of three important questions
before us today is how much might remain undeclared
and intact from before 1991; and, possibly, thereafter;
the second question is what, if anything, was illegally
produced or procured after 1998, when the inspectors
left; and the third question is how it can be prevented that
any weapons of mass destruction be produced or
procured in the future.
In December 1999 – after one year without inspections in
Iraq – resolution 1284 was adopted by the Council with
four abstentions. Supplementing the basic resolutions of
1991 and following years, it provided Iraq with a
somewhat less ambitious approach: in return for
“co-operation in all respects” for a specified period of
time, including progress in the resolution of “key
remaining disarmament tasks”, it opened the possibility,
not for the lifting, but the suspension of sanctions. For
nearly three years, Iraq refused to accept any inspections
by Unmovic.
It was only after appeals by the Secretary-General and
Arab States and pressure by the United States and other
Member States, that Iraq declared on 16 September last
year that it would again accept inspections without
conditions. Resolution 1441 (2002) was adopted on Nov 8
last year and emphatically reaffirmed the demand on Iraq
to co-operate.
It required this co-operation to be immediate,
unconditional and active. The resolution contained many
provisions, which we welcome as enhancing and
strengthening the inspection regime. The unanimity by
which it was adopted sent a powerful signal that the
Council was of one mind in creating a last opportunity for
peaceful disarmament in Iraq through inspection.
Unmovic shares the sense of urgency felt by the Council
to use inspection as a path to attain, within a reasonable
time, verifiable disarmament of Iraq. Under the
resolutions I have cited, it would be followed by
monitoring for such time as the Council feels would be
required. The resolutions also point to a zone free of
weapons of mass destruction as the ultimate goal.
As a subsidiary body of the Council, Unmovic is fully
aware of and appreciates the close attention, which the
Council devotes to the inspections in Iraq. While today’s
“updating” is foreseen in resolution 1441, the Council can
and does call for additional briefings whenever it wishes.
One was held on Jan 19 and a further such briefing is
tentatively set for Feb 14. I turn now to the key
requirement of co-operation and Iraq’s response to it.
Co-operation might be said to relate to both substance
and process. It would appear from our experience so far
that Iraq has decided in principle to provide co-operation
on process, notably access. A similar decision is
indispensable to provide co-operation on substance in
order to bring the disarmament task to completion
through the peaceful process of inspection and to bring
the monitoring task on a firm course. An initial minor step
would be to adopt the long-overdue legislation required
by the resolutions. I shall deal first with co-operation on
process.
Co-operation on process
It has regard to the procedures, mechanisms,
infrastructure and practical arrangements to pursue
inspections and seek verifiable disarmament. While
inspection is not built on the premise of confidence but
may lead to confidence if it is successful, there must
nevertheless be a measure of mutual confidence from the
very beginning in running the operation of inspection. Iraq
has on the whole co-operated rather well so far with
Unmovic in this field.
The most important point to make is that access has been
provided to all sites we have wanted to inspect and with
one exception it has been prompt. We have further had
great help in building up the infrastructure of our office in
Baghdad and the field office in Mosul. Arrangements and
services for our plane and our helicopters have been
good.
The environment has been workable. Our inspections
have included universities, military bases, presidential
sites and private residences. Inspections have also taken
place on Fridays, the Muslim day of rest, on Christmas
day and New Years day. These inspections have been
conducted in the same manner as all other inspections.
We seek to be both effective and correct. In this updating
I am bound, however, to register some problems.
Firstly, relating to two kinds of air operations. While we
now have the technical capability to send a U-2 plane
placed at our disposal for aerial imagery and for
surveillance during inspections and have informed Iraq
that we planned to do so, Iraq has refused to guarantee
its safety, unless a number of conditions are fulfilled. As
these conditions went beyond what is stipulated in
resolution 1441 and what was practiced by Unscom and
Iraq in the past, we note that Iraq is not so far complying
with our request. I hope this attitude will change.
Another air operation problem – which was solved during
our recent talks in Baghdad – concerned the use of
helicopters flying into the no-fly zones. Iraq had insisted
on sending helicopters of their own to accompany ours.
This would have raised a safety problem. The matter was
solved by an offer on our part to take the accompanying
Iraq minders in our helicopters to the sites, an
arrangement that had been practiced by Unscom in the
past. I am obliged to note some recent disturbing
incidents and harassment.
For instance, for some time farfetched allegations have
been made publicly that questions posed by inspectors
were of intelligence character. While I might not defend
every question that inspectors might have asked, Iraq
knows that they do not serve intelligence purposes and
Iraq should not say so. On a number of occasions,
demonstrations have taken place in front of our offices
and at inspection sites. The other day, a sightseeing
excursion by five inspectors to a mosque was followed by
an unwarranted public outburst. The inspectors went
without any UN insignia and were welcomed in the kind
manner that is characteristic of the normal Iraqi attitude
to foreigners. They took off their shoes and were taken
around.
They asked perfectly innocent questions and parted with
the invitation to come again. Shortly thereafter, we
receive protests from the Iraqi authorities about an
unannounced inspection and about questions not relevant
to weapons of mass destruction. Indeed, they were not.
Demonstrations and outbursts of this kind are unlikely to
occur in Iraq without initiative or encouragement from the
authorities. We must ask ourselves what the motives may
be for these events. They do not facilitate an already
difficult job, in which we try to be effective, professional
and, at the same time, correct.
Where our Iraqi counterparts have some complaint they
can take it up in a calmer and less unpleasant manner.
Co-operation on substance
The substantive co-operation required relates above all to
the obligation of Iraq to declare all programmes of
weapons of mass destruction and either to present items
and activities for elimination or else to provide evidence
supporting the conclusion that nothing proscribed
remains. Paragraph nine of resolution 1441 states that
this co-operation shall be “active”. It is not enough to
open doors. Inspection is not a game of “catch as catch
can”.
Rather, as I noted, it is a process of verification for the
purpose of creating confidence. It is not built upon the
premise of trust. Rather, it is designed to lead to trust, if
there is both openness to the inspectors and action to
present them with items to destroy or credible evidence
about the absence of any such items.
The declaration of Dec 7
On Dec 7 2002, Iraq submitted a declaration of some
12,000 pages in response to paragraph three of resolution
1441 and within the time stipulated by the Security
Council. In the fields of missiles and biotechnology, the
declaration contains a good deal of new material and
information covering the period from 1998 and onward.
This is welcome.
One might have expected that in
preparing the Declaration, Iraq
would have tried to respond to,
clarify and submit supporting
evidence regarding the many open
disarmament issues, which the
Iraqi side should be familiar with
from the Unscom document
S/1999/94 of January1999 and the
so-called Amorim Report of March
1999 (S/1999/356).
These are questions which
Unmovic, governments and
independent commentators have
often cited. While Unmovic has
been preparing its own list of
current “unresolved disarmament
issues” and “key remaining
disarmament tasks” in response to requirements in
resolution 1284 (1999), we find the issues listed in the two
reports as unresolved, professionally justified.
These reports do not contend that weapons of mass
destruction remain in Iraq, but nor do they exclude that
possibility. They point to lack of evidence and
inconsistencies, which raise question marks, which must
be straightened out, if weapons dossiers are to be closed
and confidence is to arise. They deserve to be taken
seriously by Iraq rather than being brushed aside as evil
machinations of Unscom. Regrettably, the 12,000 page
declaration, most of which is a reprint of earlier
documents, does not seem to contain any new evidence
that would eliminate the questions or reduce their
number.
Even Iraq’s letter sent in response to our recent
discussions in Baghdad to the President of the Security
Council on Jan 24 does not lead us to the resolution of
these issues. I shall only give some examples of issues
and questions that need to be answered and I turn first to
the sector of chemical weapons.
Chemical weapons
The nerve agent VX is one of the most toxic ever
developed. Iraq has declared that it only produced VX on
a pilot scale, just a few tonnes and that the quality was
poor and the product unstable. Consequently, it was said,
that the agent was never weaponised.
Iraq said that the small quantity of agent remaining after
the Gulf War was unilaterally destroyed in the summer of
1991. Unmovic, however, has information that conflicts
with this account. There are indications that Iraq had
worked on the problem of purity and stabilization and that
more had been achieved than has been declared. Indeed,
even one of the documents provided by Iraq indicates
that the purity of the agent, at least in laboratory
production, was higher than declared.
There are also indications that the agent was weaponised.
In addition, there are questions to be answered
concerning the fate of the VX precursor chemicals, which
Iraq states were lost during bombing in the Gulf War or
were unilaterally destroyed by Iraq. I would now like to
turn to the so-called “Air Force document” that I have
discussed with the Council before. This document was
originally found by an Unscom inspector in a safe in Iraqi
Air Force Headquarters in 1998 and taken from her by
Iraqi minders. It gives an account of the expenditure of
bombs, including chemical bombs, by Iraq in the
Iraq-Iran War.
I am encouraged by the fact that Iraq has now provided
this document to Unmovic. The document indicates that
13,000 chemical bombs were dropped by the Iraqi Air
Force between 1983 and 1988, while Iraq has declared
that 19,500 bombs were consumed during this period.
Thus, there is a discrepancy of 6,500 bombs.
The amount of chemical agent in these bombs would be in
the order of about 1,000 tonnes. In the absence of
evidence to the contrary, we must assume that these
quantities are now unaccounted for. The discovery of a
number of 122 mm chemical rocket warheads in a bunker
at a storage depot 170 km southwest of Baghdad was
much publicized.
This was a relatively new bunker and therefore the
rockets must have been moved there in the past few
years, at a time when Iraq should not have had such
munitions. The investigation of these rockets is still
proceeding. Iraq states that they were overlooked from
1991 from a batch of some 2,000 that were stored there
during the Gulf War. This could be the case.
They could also be the tip of a submerged iceberg. The
discovery of a few rockets does not resolve but rather
points to the issue of several thousands of chemical
rockets that are unaccounted for. The finding of the
rockets shows that Iraq needs to make more effort to
ensure that its declaration is currently accurate.
During my recent discussions in
Baghdad, Iraq declared that it
would make new efforts in this
regard and had set up a
committee of investigation. Since
then it has reported that it has
found a further four chemical
rockets at a storage depot in Al
Taji. I might further mention that
inspectors have found at another
site a laboratory quantity of
thiodiglycol, a mustard gas
precursor.
Whilst I am addressing chemical
issues, I should mention a matter,
which I reported on Dec 19 2002,
concerning equipment at a civilian
chemical plant at Al Fallujah. Iraq
has declared that it had repaired
chemical processing equipment
previously destroyed under Unscom supervision, and had
installed it at Fallujah for the production of chlorine and
phenols. We have inspected this equipment and are
conducting a detailed technical evaluation of it.
On completion, we will decide whether this and other
equipment that has been recovered by Iraq should be
destroyed.
Biological weapons
I have mentioned the issue of anthrax to the Council on
previous occasions and I come back to it as it is an
important one. Iraq has declared that it produced about
8,500 litres of this biological warfare agent, which it states
it unilaterally destroyed in the summer of 1991.
Iraq has provided little evidence for this production and
no convincing evidence for its destruction. There are
strong indications that Iraq produced more anthrax than it
declared, and that at least some of this was retained after
the declared destruction date. It might still exist. Either it
should be found and be destroyed under Unmovic
supervision or else convincing evidence should be
produced to show that it was, indeed, destroyed in 1991.
As I reported to the Council on 19 December last year,
Iraq did not declare a significant quantity, some 650 kg,
of bacterial growth media, which was acknowledged as
imported in Iraq’s submission to the Amorim panel in
February 1999.
As part of its Dec 7 2002 declaration, Iraq resubmitted
the Amorim panel document, but the table showing this
particular import of media was not included. The absence
of this table would appear to be deliberate as the pages of
the resubmitted document were renumbered. In the letter
of 24 January to the President of the Council, Iraq’s
Foreign Minister stated that “all imported quantities of
growth media were declared”.
This is not evidence. I note that the quantity of media
involved would suffice to produce, for example, about
5,000 litres of concentrated anthrax.
Missiles
I turn now to the missile sector. There remain significant
questions as to whether Iraq retained Scud-type missiles
after the Gulf War. Iraq declared the consumption of a
number of Scud missiles as targets in the development of
an anti-ballistic missile defence system during the 1980s.
Yet no technical information has been produced about that
programme or data on the consumption of the missiles.
There has been a range of developments in the missile
field during the past four years presented by Iraq as
non-proscribed activities. We are trying to gather a clear
understanding of them through inspections and on-site
discussions.
Two projects in particular stand out. They are the
development of a liquid-fuelled missile named the Al
Samoud 2, and a solid propellant missile, called the Al
Fatah. Both missiles have been tested to a range in
excess of the permitted range of 150 km, with the Al
Samoud 2 being tested to a maximum of 183 km and the
Al Fatah to 161 km. Some of both types of missiles have
already been provided to the Iraqi Armed Forces even
though it is stated that they are still undergoing
development.
The Al Samoud’s diameter was increased from an earlier
version to the present 760 mm. This modification was
made despite a 1994 letter from the executive chairman
of Unscom directing Iraq to limit its missile diameters to
less than 600 mm.
Furthermore, a November 1997 letter from the executive
chairman of Unscom to Iraq prohibited the use of engines
from certain surface-to-air missiles for the use in ballistic
missiles. During my recent meeting in Baghdad, we were
briefed on these two programmes. We were told that the
final range for both systems would be less than the
permitted maximum range of 150 km. These missiles
might well represent prima facie cases of proscribed
systems.
The test ranges in excess of 150 km are significant, but
some further technical considerations need to be made,
before we reach a conclusion on this issue. In the mean
time, we have asked Iraq to cease flight tests of both
missiles. In addition, Iraq has refurbished its missile
production infrastructure. In particular, Iraq reconstituted
a number of casting chambers, which had previously been
destroyed under Unscom supervision.
They had been used in the
production of solid-fuel missiles.
Whatever missile system these
chambers are intended for, they
could produce motors for missiles
capable of ranges significantly
greater than 150 km. Also
associated with these missiles and
related developments is the
import, which has been taking
place during the last few years, of
a number of items despite the
sanctions, including as late as
December 2002. Foremost
amongst these is the import of 380 rocket engines which
may be used for the Al Samoud 2.
Iraq also declared the recent import of chemicals used in
propellants, test instrumentation and, guidance and
control systems. These items may well be for proscribed
purposes.
That is yet to be determined. What is clear is that they
were illegally brought into Iraq, that is, Iraq or some
company in Iraq, circumvented the restrictions imposed
by various resolutions. Mr President, I have touched upon
some of the disarmament issues that remain open and
that need to be answered if dossiers are to be closed and
confidence is to arise.
Which are the means at the disposal of Iraq to answer
these questions? I have pointed to some during my
presentation of the issues. Let me be a little more
systematic. Our Iraqi counterparts are fond of saying that
there are no proscribed items and if no evidence is
presented to the contrary they should have the benefit of
the doubt, be presumed innocent. Unmovic, for its part, is
not presuming that there are proscribed items and
activities in Iraq, but nor is it – or I think anyone else
after the inspections between 1991 and 1998 – presuming
the opposite, that no such items and activities exist in
Iraq.
Presumptions do not solve the problem. Evidence and full
transparency may help. Let me be specific. Find the items
and activities Information provided by Member States
tells us about the movement and concealment of missiles
and chemical weapons and mobile units for biological
weapons production.
We shall certainly follow up any credible leads given to us
and report what we might find as well as any denial of
access. So far we have reported on the recent find of a
small number of empty 122 mm warheads for chemical
weapons. Iraq declared that it appointed a commission of
inquiry to look for more. Fine.
Why not extend the search to other items? Declare what
may be found and destroy it under our supervision?
Find documents
When we have urged our Iraqi counterparts to present
more evidence, we have all too often met the response
that there are no more documents. All existing relevant
documents have been presented, we are told. All
documents relating to the biological weapons programme
were destroyed together with the weapons.
However, Iraq has all the archives
of the Government and its various
departments, institutions and
mechanisms. It should have
budgetary documents, requests for
funds and reports on how they
have been used. It should also
have letters of credit and bills of
lading, reports on production and
losses of material.
In response to a recent Unmovic
request for a number of specific
documents, the only new
documents Iraq provided was a
ledger of 193 pages which Iraq
stated included all imports from
1983 to 1990 by the Technical and Scientific Importation
Division, the importing authority for the biological
weapons programme. Potentially, it might help to clear
some open issues.
The recent inspection find in the private home of a
scientist of a box of some 3,000 pages of documents,
much of it relating to the laser enrichment of uranium
support a concern that has long existed that documents
might be distributed to the homes of private individuals.
This interpretation is refuted by the Iraqi side, which
claims that research staff sometimes may bring home
papers from their work places. On our side, we cannot
help but think that the case might not be isolated and that
such placements of documents is deliberate to make
discovery difficult and to seek to shield documents by
placing them in private homes.
Any further sign of the concealment of documents would
be serious. The Iraqi side committed itself at our recent
talks to encourage persons to accept access also to
private sites. There can be no sanctuaries for proscribed
items, activities or documents. A denial of prompt access
to any site would be a very serious matter.
Find persons to give credible information: a list of
personnel
When Iraq claims that tangible evidence in the form of
documents is not available, it ought at least to find
individuals, engineers, scientists and managers to testify
about their experience. Large weapons programmes are
moved and managed by people. Interviews with
individuals who may have worked in programmes in the
past may fill blank spots in our knowledge and
understanding. It could also be useful to learn that they
are now employed in peaceful sectors. These were the
reasons why Unmovic asked for a list of such persons, in
accordance with resolution 1441.
Some 400 names for all biological and chemical weapons
programmes as well as their missile programmes were
provided by the Iraqi side. This can be compared to over
3,500 names of people associated with those past
weapons programmes that Unscom either interviewed in
the 1990s or knew from documents and other sources.
At my recent meeting in Baghdad, the Iraqi side
committed itself to supplementing the list and some 80
additional names have been provided.
Allow information through credible interviews
In the past, much valuable information came from
interviews. There were also cases in which the
interviewee was clearly intimidated by the presence of
and interruption by Iraqi officials. This was the
background of resolution 1441’s provision for a right for
Unmovic and the IAEA to hold private interviews “in the
mode or location” of our choice, in Baghdad or even
abroad.
To date, 11 individuals were asked for interviews in
Baghdad by us. The replies have invariably been that the
individual will only speak at Iraq’s monitoring directorate
or, at any rate, in the presence of an Iraqi official. This
could be due to a wish on the part of the invited to have
evidence that they have not said anything that the
authorities did not wish them to say.
At our recent talks in Baghdad, the Iraqi side committed
itself to encourage persons to accept interviews “in
private”, that is to say alone with us. Despite this, the
pattern has not changed. However, we hope that with
further encouragement from the authorities,
knowledgeable individuals will accept private interviews,
in Baghdad or abroad.
Unmovic’s capability
Mr President, I must not conclude this “update” without
some notes on the growing capability of Unmovic. In the
past two months, Unmovic has built-up its capabilities in
Iraq from nothing to 260 staff members from 60
countries.
This includes approximately 100 Unmovic inspectors, 60
air operations staff, as well as security personnel,
communications, translation and interpretation staff,
medical support, and other services at our Baghdad office
and Mosul field office. All serve the United Nations and
report to no one else.
Furthermore, our roster of inspectors will continue to grow
as our training programme continues - even at this
moment we have a training course in session in Vienna.
At the end of that course, we shall have a roster of about
350 qualified experts from which to draw inspectors. A
team supplied by the Swiss government is refurbishing
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