Huntingdon College | Political Science | Courses
PSC 307: Public Policy Analysis.
Spring 2000, 2002 & 2004 Student Notes on
John Kingdon, Agendas and Public Policies, 2e, 1995.
Compiled by Jeremy Lewis; revised 15 Mar. 2006.

---

CONTENTS:

Kristin Goodrich, 2002

* Processes of public policy making
    1. setting of the agenda
    2. specification of alternatives from which a choice is to be made
    3. authoritative choice among those specified alternatives
    4. implementation of decision
* agenda: a list of subjects or problems that are being paid attention serious attention by governmental officials and
those outside of the government that are close to those officials.
* purpose of the agenda setting process is to narrow the range of issues to those that are focused upon
* governmental agenda subjects is that which is receiving the attention
* decision agenda is the list of the subjects within the government that are considered to be activated
* aside from the agenda , alternatives are ; in addition, looked upon which may fall under a separate process
* good examples of the process of agenda setting can be found in the carter administration with the issue of health
care and the Nixon administration with the issue of transportation
 
 

Civil Servants
They are not nearly as influential as the Administration.  They are preoccupied mainly by implementation.  Line Bureaucrats
administer existing programs.  Staff Bureaucrats work on changes.  They have more impact on the alternatives.  Their resources
include longevity, expertise, and relationships with Congress and interest groups.

Capitol Hill
Have an impact on both agendas and alternatives.  Their resources include legal authority, formidable publicity, blended information,
and longevity.  The incentives they have are to satisfy constituents, enhance the reputation of Washington, and achieve individual
conception of public policy.  Also, their staff operates within the realm of people who have hired them.
 

A. The Administration
- Actors include the president, Executive Office Staff, and Political Appointees

The President- Can single-handedly set agendas through these resources:

2. Presidential Staff

3. Political Appointees

B. Civil Servants
- Not nearly as influential as the Administration

C. Capitol Hill
- Have an impact on both agenda and alternatives

• Resources

• Incentives

Three subjects discussed

1.  the importance of each participant
2.  the ways each is important
3.  the resources available to each participant

The Administration
1. usually considered one of, or a combination of three actors:  the president himself, the staff in the Executive Office that is responsible to the president and the political appointees in departments and  bureaus who are responsible to the president.

2.  when the Administration considers an issue a top priority, others do too
3.  the president
I.  can single handedly set the agendas of the executive branch, the people in  Congress and  outside of govt
II.  does not totally control the policy agenda, for many events beyond his control  impinge on the agendas of various participants and even on his own agenda
III.  he can dominate and determine the policy agenda, but cannot dominate the  alternatives and cannot determine the final outcome

IV.  his resources

a.  the veto and prerogative to hire and fire
b.  organization
c.  command of public attention
d.  he may have a partisan advantage
e.  involvement or how much he talks about the issue

5.  political appointees

I.  those who have positions appointed by the president
II.  are the most frequently mentioned
III.  issues that are important to them are considered important to many
IV.  president’s policy take precedence over appointee’s
V.  appointees tend to bend with political wind
VI.  the disadvantage: impermanence

I.  alleged to have expertise, dedication, interest and staying power

a.  longevity

b.  expertise
c.  relationships with people in Congress and in the interest groups

I.  legal authority
II.  formidable publicity
III.  blended information
IV.  longevity

I.  publicity
II.  enhancing intra-Washington reputation
III.  conception of good public policy

I.  aides to members of congress
II.  specialize in one policy area
III.  draft legislation, negotiate the details of agreements among the interested parties,  arrange for hearing witness lists and write speeches and briefing materials for the members
IV.  get their ideas from a wide range of sources
V.  are set by the limits of the member of Congress that hires them
VI.  only have influence in  the alternatives; not in agenda setting
VII.  staffer and member work together to create the agenda

Interest Groups
*Participants without formal government positions include:  Interest groups, researchers,
academics, consultants, media, parties and other elections-related actors, and the mass public
*Governmental position- to have the formal authority granted by statute and by the constitution
Types of Interest Groups
    -business and industry,
        *In business and industry transportation is the most important in the cases analyzed
        *business and industry are 9 of 12 transportation cases
    -professional
        *health is prominent in the professional cases studies
    -labor
        *show up more in interviews
    -public interest groups
        *sometimes influences policy agenda
        *the consensus that used to exist among the participating parties has diminished
because of the emergence of public interest groups
    -government officials (lobbyists)
        * mostly representatives of the states and cities
        * they lobby for change within their environment (Medicaid Program)
Types of Group Activity
    -some activities affect the agenda setting
    -some activities affect the alternatives considered by policy makers
    -some  activities are positive
            *promoting new courses of governmental action
    -some activities are negative
            *blocking changes in public policy
Group Resources
    *resoures can give a group an advantage or disadvantage
Academics, Researchers, and Consultants

Types of Activity
        *academics affect the alternatives more than governmental agendas
        *importance of academics might be the short and long term affects

The Media
      *mass media affects the public opinion attention to governmental issues
        *mass media should have a impact on public agenda
Elections-Related Participants
Campaigners
    -candidates promise actions on many policy fronts
    -campaigns leave data which influences agenda
Political Parties
    - affect policy agendas through the content of their platforms,
    -the impact of their leadership in Congress and
    -the claim they might have on their adherents,
    -and the ideologies the represent
Public Opinion
    *general public opinions treated as important in 57 percent of the interviews
    *public opinion is in the middle of insignificance and prominent total sources
    *can have positive or negative effects
 
 

1. There are no leaders that stretch across many possible subjects

3. Topics do not move among communities with any set pattern

 

3. Steps of Rational decision making

• Define goals
• Find out all possible alternatives and their costs

• Unable to canvass many alternatives
• Does not usually clarify goals

• Decisions are made in small building steps on previous policies
• Result is that changes are in small, gradual steps
• Due to reluctance to take big steps: fear of:
• political fallout by politicians
• unanticipated consequences by specialists
• Does not describe how there are large shifts in public interest are caused by a gradual buildup
• Characterizes the alternatives more than the policy

• Garbage Can Model developed by Cohen, March, and Olsen

• Problematic preferences- defined properties cause conflict within
• Unclear technology- members do not understand the processes
• Fluid Participation- participants drift in and out of decision making

2. Four Streams Running through organized anarchies

• problems, solutions, participants and choice opportunity
• Choice opportunity:

1. Various participants become involved
2. Various problems are introduced
3. Various solutions may be considered

• Streams flow fairly separate through the system
• Outcomes heavily depend on the coupling of the streams

1. Three Processes of Federal Government Agenda Setting

• problems, policies, and politics

2. Three Major Streams in Federal Government

• problem recognition, formation and refining of policies, politic
• Each may act as an impetus or a constraint

•  Indicators, focusing events and feedback
•  Indicators used to asses magnitude of and change in problems, interpretation of indicators is a complicated process
•  Focusing events (disasters, crises, personal experience & symbols) need accompaniment
•  Feedback gives info. on current performance (may not = intent of legislative & administration), indicates failure to meet goals or suggest unanticipated consequences

•  Why problems fade—growth rate of problem levels off, people become used to condition or “b/c attention is faddish.”

•  Budgetary conditions act as impetus. (Sometimes prevent a problem from emerging to gov’t officials after attention).
•  Budgets more often act as a constraint by reducing enthusiasm for expensive solutions to problems.
•  Slack resources in the economy make budget constraints less severe.

•  A problem does not gain attention by accident
•  Bringing focus of the public & gov’t to a problem is
•  Other reasons gov’t enacts solutions (Page 114)

- policy making is compared to function as the process of biological natural selection
- policy communities are made up of specialist on certain policy areas
- specialist act towards political events
- some communities are more closely tied than others
    examp: the health community though diverse in divisions makes an effort to communicate
with each other, for example, a health staff seminar is held each yr. with all divisions to discuss
policies and trade information
               on the other hand, the transportation community is divided in modes; highway,
waterways, railways, and aviation. committees rarely have interest in crossing over because
the technology in each division is very different
- fragmentation within communities can develop difficulties or conflicts within policies, for
example, it may occur that one division passes a policy that has a bad effect on another
division
    examp: location of new highways conflicted with railroad success
- a closely knit community can act more efficiently because of a common understanding of
goals
    examp: most health specialist, when asked, state that there are three main concerns; cost
access and quality, in respect to Medicare to the people and the government
- " structural anchors to agenda" : it is the anti- fragmented communities that develop strong
anchors to prevent a high degree of change from yr. to yr., this prevents a crisis and instability
within the community
- some entrepreneurs " soften up" the policy communities who are traditional in the way of
thought to prepare them for a trend of upcoming change
- specialist begin to have a sense of what policies are in the right direction and what policies
include technical characteristics
- criteria for public policies: technical feasibility, value acceptance, and reasonable change for
receptivity among elected decision makers
-technical feasibility: staffers must pay close attention to details because the proposal must
be as solid as possible when it is presented for approval, there must not be any inconsistencies
- value acceptability: there are several considerations; equity vs. efficiency and liberalism vs.
conservatism, each specialist attempts to fill in the gaps of policies with their values
   examp: social sec. pension
- anticipation of constraints: this is the final step in the consideration of a policy, the specialist
must predict the constraints the politicians and the public will have towards the particular
policy
   types of constraints: budget constraints; the policy must be looked over many times to
ensure that the cost is manageable to the federal budget, it may be slimmed down to the
barest minimum, or dropped if a financial equilibrium is not achieved
                                public acquiescence; most often specialist consider the sentiment of
politicians foe a close look at the public's sentiments towards issues
                                   examp: health care officials would like to do more about habitual
habits { i.e. smoking} but because of the public sentiment warnings and education are as far
as it goes
- through the process of diffusion a policy is able to be caught up on a band wagon
 

The Political Stream is made up of public mood, pressure group campaigns, election results, partisan or
ideological distributions in Congress, and changes of administration.  These developments largely impact
the agendas and what issues become more or less of a priority.  In the political stream, there is always
change which is caused by the shifts of important participants in the system or a response to shifts in
national mood or interest group configurations.

The National Mood
People in and around government sense a national mood.  It is important to be able to read when the
national mood shifts.  The national mood indicates that there is a consensus among people in the way
they are thinking and that the consensus changes over time in recognizable ways.  Further, these changes
have significant impacts on policy agendas and outcomes.  The changes in national mood are described in
general terms such as the "antigovernment mood."  The national mood can create the "fertile ground" for
a policy's promotion or it can slow a policy down.  The changes in the national mood are fundamental to
the process and inevitable--just as a pendulum swings.  If the pendulum goes one direction it will surely
swing back in the other direction.  This can cause realignments of parties.  Often the general mood of the
public can drive policies that are contrary to what the consensus is on specific issues.  Discovering the
national mood is done by politicians judging their constituents in various ways and by nonelected officials
who try to sense the mood from the information politicians give them.  National moods must be given
attention--they often dictate what happens to policies.

Organized Political Forces
The organized political forces are interest group pressure, political mobilization, and the behavior of
political elites.  When an issue is supported or leaders lean in favor of an issue it pushes the issue and can
cause it to become more prominent on the agenda (the opposite is also true).  Often the determining
factor in a policy's survival or downfall is who is one which side and who is the most adamant about their
position on the issue.  Often a balance of organized forces on both sides of the issue creates a deadlock
in which there is no change made.  Observers will often conclude that one side is stronger or is right
based upon their beliefs.  Governmental programs have groups of supporters who will defend them.  If
an issue does not have significant supporters it is often not a high priority on the agenda.  The politicians
must consider the consequences they would face if they go against a powerful interest group.

Government In The Political Stream
The changes in administrations and changes in members of Congress cause for agendas to change.
Agendas can change by incumbents changing their priorities or by new people filling government
positions who have different priorities.  Turnover of officials produces new agenda items it also makes
agenda items that were previously important no longer a priority in some cases.  When an administration
changes the participants in government are waiting to see what the priorities will be and how successful
the new administration can be in pushing them.  Not only does turnover in Congress and administration
changes affect the priorities but changes in the bureaucracies also affect agendas.
Also, when speaking of government jurisdiction must be considered.  This considers constitutions,
charters, statutes, and regulations.  This is often shown by a struggle between different agencies and
officials who all have different interests.  "Where you stand depends upon where you sit."  The is also this
same sort of competition between executive branch departments.  These disputes can often cause an
item to rise in importance on the agenda, which sometimes forces movement and sometimes causes
stalemate.

Consensus Building In Political Stream
Consensus building is governed by bargaining.  The coalitions are built by the granting of concessions to
each group that makes up the consensus.  This means that to be effective in consensus building each
group must be willing to compromise on minor details to keep a good policy in tact.  To begin, the
participants usually are adamant about their positions and are unwilling to compromise, but when it
becomes clear that the policy and all the work that has gone into it will fail without some compromise
there must be a decision.  One can either compromise or can not compromise risking the loss of the
entire project, which can cause significant political loss as well.  When an issue becomes popular almost
everyone wants to have input on it, which makes is almost impossible to not compromise.

Conclusion
The political stream flows with its own dynamics and rules.  Politician believe they can sense changes in
the political stream which helps them to make decisions.  Turnover has a large effect on the agendas.
When an item is on the agenda, the forces begin to have input trying to shape the policy to their
advantage.  The impact on the agenda is not by any means control over the alternatives or outcomes.
 

-The Policy window is an opportunity for advocates to push their pet solutions, or to push attention to their special problems.  A problem is recognized, a solution is developed and available in the policy community, a political change makes it the right time for policy change, and potential constraints are not severe.

What are Policy Windows and why do they open?
-Windows open in policy systems.  The opportunities for action, on given initiatives, present themselves and stay open for short periods.
The participants must take advantage or wait for another window.
Policy windows happen when separate streams come together.
*governmental agenda- list of subjects to which people in and around government are paying serious attention.
*decision agenda- proposals moved into position for legislative enactment or under review for a decision.

-Decision agenda does not always mean enactment or favorable bureaucratic decision.  Some items moved ahead of others because they stand a decent chance of enactment.  Also, without window some items never rise on the agenda because advocates conclude it isn’t worth their time to invest in them.  They want them to bear fruit.  Also no bargaining when no policy window.  Instead stake out extreme position early, then bargain when window opens.
*EX- Lyndon Johnson in control of House, Large majority of Liberal Democrats in House, Medicare/Medicaid passed even though mostly used by the old (where the healthcare would go most used and who would die soon
making the recent healthcare paid for useless), was passed because was high on national agenda and congress new that it would pass.

-Windows open because....
Change in the political stream(change in administration, a shift in national mood, a shift in the partisan or ideological distribution of seats in Congress) or because a new problem catches the attention of government officials.
-Window closes because....
Participants feel they have addressed the problem, they fail to get action, events that opened window may pass from the scene, personnel may change again, there is no available alternative or solution.

-predicting policy window is not simple. Some features define a window
( change of administration, a renewal, or imminent collapse of a major sector of the economy).  But policy windows are often missestimated  or misperceived.
*EX- 1977-78, Senator Kennedy and organized labor think open policy window for National Health Insurance proposals.  Carter strongly and publicly committed to NHI and there is a majority of Democrats in Congress.  They believed it wise to push quickly because policy window might not open again for long time.  Others opposed..... “It’s not going anywhere, so why spend time on it”.... “No way to finance it and no public demand”....The window closed if it was ever open and there was no NHI.

-Coupling is an important idea.  Solutions float around government, searching for problems to become attached to or political events that increase their likely hood of adoption.  Proposals are constantly in the policy stream, but then suddenly they become elevated on the governmental agenda because they can be seen as solutions to a pressing
problem or because  politicians find their sponsorship expedient.

-If a problem is pressing, are looking for a theme for their administration, or cast about for proposals that will serve their reelection or other purposes...problem window.
-Political window....a change of administration, a shift in National Mood, an influx of new members of congress.

*policy entrepreneurs- advocates who are willing to invest their resources to promote a position in return for anticipated future gain....material, purposive, or solitary benefits.

-Policy entrepreneurs are linked with coupling because they often grasp the solutions and tie them with the problems or play a heavy part in the coupling process.

*Kingdon’s multiple streams model offers a theoretical framework for analyzing and emphasizing the process of problem definition, agenda setting, and selection of policy alternatives. Kingdon does this by conducting a four year study based on hundreds of interviews with policy actors.

*The central feature of Kingdon’s model is the notion of three streams flowing through the policy system and consisting of problems, policies, and politics.

*The problem stream contains information about policy problems. Information comes from sources such as indicators, dramatic events or crises, and feedback from existing programs. Many actors in the media and government are constantly gathering information on conditions that may represent problems. These actors seek to identify the existence of conditions, potential consequences of conditions, and trends in conditions over time. Kingdon also points out the fact that these studies are not generally used to determine whether or not a problem exists, but rather to examine the magnitude of, or changes in, an already existing problem. Finally, according to Kingdon, problems can be illuminated through feedback which comes from systematic monitoring of programs, complaints, and casework, and through the daily bureaucratic administration of programs.

*Kingdon referred to the policy stream as a “policy primeval soup” in which a process similar to natural selection determines which ideas survive and which fade. Actors in the policy community generate and discuss ideas for policy change: these ideas evolve over time. The viability of a policy proposal depends on its technical feasibility, cost, public, and political support, and the prevailing value choices in the associated society. Most of the policy ideas that survive are not new; rather they are mutations or recombinations of alternatives floating in the soup. When ideas meet certain criteria, they are more likely to survive. Kingdon argues that the end result must be realistic and compatible with individual or socially held values.

*The last stream is referred to as being political. Unlike the other streams this stream is independent of the problem and policy streams and includes thing like “public mood, pressure group campaigns, election results, partisan or ideological distributions in Congress, and changes of administration”.

*Kingdon also goes on to describe what he calls a policy window. According to Kingdon a policy window is “an opportunity for advocates of proposals to push their pet solutions or to push attention to their special problems”. The problem and political streams provide policy window openings. When problems come to the forefront trough indicators, crises, or feedback, and when the political stream opens due to national mood swings or administrative turnover, policy windows open, and policy entrepreneurs must take advantage of the opportunity.

* Policy change is likely when a problem is widely recognized, a solution is either swiftly developed or is already available, and the politics are favorable. Policy change is unlikely if the problem goes unrecognized, or if a solution is lacking, or if the politics are unfavorable.
 
 

- when issues aren’t hot, advocates are extreme; when issue becomes prominent, advocates become more flexible--compromising to stay active

- open due to--change in administration, political turnover, nat’al mood shifts
- close due to--address problem, fail to get action, opening event passed, change in personnel, no available alternative
- timing is important to get policy through
- "solutions float around in and near government searching for problems to which to become attached or political events that increase their possibility of adoption"
- advocates hook solutions onto the problem of the moment or push them at a good time in the political stream

- two types--problem and political windows
problem--pressing, need immediate solution
political--theme of administration

- seizing opportunities--" Accidents are unfortunate, but you do get more money for facilities when they happen"
-policy entrepreneurs-put problems & solutions together from stream through window
- must have: ability to be heard, political connections; persistent
- advocate proposals but they act as brokers, negotiating & making couplings
- smaller issues can come up when big ones are not in forefront--education, taxes,...
-issues must pass through bottleneck to get noticed

-" Government does not come to conclusions. It stumbles into paradoxical situations that force it to move one way or another. There are social forces that you can identify, but what comes out of them is just accident."

- spillovers--one window allows other issues to come through
- est. principle for later decisions
- spillover to adjacent areas--airline regulation to train and auto

-using recent events as examples of concepts developed on book
- Reagan Budget in 1981

-Policy Primeval Soup--policy development is evolutionary, deny sharp ups and downs
-proposals developed for Problem A can be transferred to solve Problem B
-policy and political streams are different \ involve different people, bec/ different preoccupations