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PSC 302: Comparative Government | PSC 303: International Relations
Compiled by Prof. Jeremy Lewis, revised 13 Apr. 20065. 

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ACSC National Security Workshop, 10 April 2006
Human and Economic Security Issues

• Infectious diseases have killed more than warfare: 'enemy at the gates, killing our women'
• Victims of plagues suffer out of sight.
• Warfare killed 1M per year, less than communicable diseases, 26% of deaths worldwide, cf less than 1% from wars. e.g. influenza pandemic post ww2, 32M lost.
• Petroleum barrel tripled price, requires 2-day loss of $1 Bn, and Chinese financing.
• Damage of 9/11 is much less than cost of oil price rise.
• Avian flu may do a major job of pruning populations.
• Natural disasters are often caused by man's actions, setting conditions.
• Eco security needs Dynamic equilibrium, balance of man & insects; man & organisms; human & human.  Disequilibrium characteristic of all three much of time.
• Whenever two human pops live side by side, differential growth becomes an issue.  Pop decline also creates insecurities, e.g. Russia, W. Europe smaller youth pop for military.
• Chinese and Indians seeking oil and other resources now.
• Changes in nature: warming or cooling; ice caps melting, most significant security threat for next 20 years, especially to small island nations; hurricanes more furious and frequent.  Pathogens, diseases jumping from nature to humans because more contact.  SARS from cats and bats in southern China.
• Water more imp in global warming.
• RApid change in security challenges expected, harder to identify -- but large scale over the border warfare less likely.
• Losing countries also have ability to unleash WMD on way out.
• Expect millions of casualties lost to pandemics.
• Missions ambiguous and victory ill defined.
• Living closely together, hence pathogens will be unfamiliar; bio terror & bio weapons much more important..
• Major pandemics may be major threat (bird flu may be only the first -- flu has recurred every 40 years on pandemic scale.

Security and sustainability systems are interconnected: e.g. west coast air full of Chinese coal plant particulates.

Security is knowing everything is going to be all right.

Being able to meet all human needs trough the generations within the means of nature.

Each is a necessary condition for the other.

Scientific American Sep. 2005: pop. energy, environmental issues.

Best & worst of times, e.g. Exxon made $36 Bn last year.

Nano tech, AI, good trends in science.

Unexpected consequences, destruction of numerous ecosystems, including virgin forests decimated.  Earth warmer now than ins  400,000 years and will severely disrupt habitats.  Glaciers all melting. Mt. Kilimanjaro 11,000 yrs of snow will soon be gone, and large pop at base will lose water supply.

Coastal land sinking--  e.g. LA losing football field per day.  ALl of south Florida plus coast would be lost with 10 meter rise in sea level.  IF all ice melts in world, no FL left at all.

Coral reefs all dying.  Aussie Great Barrier Reef is now doomed regardless of human decisions from now on.  Coral reefs esp Indonesia region all at high risk, with large pops dependent on fish from reefs.

WAter short across N Africa especially, spreading.

90% correlation between military intervention by US and resource stress around world.

Roman Empire period only 100M pop.  Then India and China developed by 400 AD.  Mongols killed millions in China 100 AD, then 1/3 Europeans killed in plagues.  1800s Europe suddenly multiplies -- then in C20th massive growth of pop with exponential growth.

Pop tripled since WW2.  China has many cities with multimillion pop.

Oil discovery peaked in 1960s, rate of discovery declining even though rate of production has not yet begun to decline, will shrink badly in this century -- hence major conflicts.

UN Champagne glass view of reality, top 1/5 consumes 86% of world, bottom 1/5 only 1.3%.  Richest 1% have a much income as poorest 57%.

map www.povertymap.net/ shows fat countries and shriveled poor countries incl. all of Africa looks like a chili.

All major living systems of life support are declining, all consumption rising..

Pogo the possum cartoon: 'Met the enemy and he is us.'

Four conditions for sustainable society: need control of

earth crust substances

substances produced by society

degradation by physical means

human means met worldwide.

new book Resource WArs.

Precious metals are very scarce and cause fights.  But many substances plentiful like oil or water have local or temp shortages.

Using 85m barrels of oil daily on global basis.  Petroleum liquids still increasing production for next decade but less than demand will increase.  2025 demand will increase 50% based on pop and economic growth.  Growing motorization of world, 125M per day DoE estimate.  About equal to output on their estimates -- but very unlikely hat output will reach even 100M a day ten years from now.

Global oil discovery declining since 1960s and output now was discovered then.  Some fields cannot sustain output because of pressure drops underground.

Few places left for increased production -- Kazakh, Iran Nigeria etc. -- all are corrupt and unstable states, discouraging investment.  Natural gas curve runs slightly behind oil output curve.

Hence source of international stress and conflict.

Oil is critical resource, valuable and concentrated. Fuels 40% of world energy.

Carter doctrine 23 Jan 1980: (Iran rev and Afghan invasion) Oil vital interest of US and would protect with force.

Oil is most important commodity in international trade and often only source of income for producing countries -- who controls state controls wealth in that country.

Powerful incentive to grab and retain power in oil states (petroleum regimes) hence family autocracies. New KGB dynasties in Azer, Kazakh emerging.

Niger delta region pop excluded from oil wealth, kidnapping oil workers to raise money.

Oil wealth contention is a factor in Iraq -- Sunnis fear exclusion from oil.

Dispersal of oil resources has had a huge impact on military history: US had oil in WW2, axis did not and were unable to secure more oil.

Russia declining miliary power but rising energy power.

Higher prices pushing us to conservation efforts -- but some countries resorting to state intervention.  Three large Chinese state corps seeking assets around world, large state enterprise. China providing military assistance to small countries that might become oil producers.

Bush May 2001 energy policy calls for vigorous state aid to open up oil for US corps.

Clinton admin. saw Caspian sea as imp, persuaded Caucasus countires to build pipeline.

China like US pursing 'resource nationalism'.  Risk of conflict arising from dependence is growing.  Could lead though unlikely to direct conflict between major powers -- e.g. China-Japan maritime boundary sits on oil field.  Both have forces there, China is drilling.  Nationalist feeling growing in both.

More likely involvement of great powers in regional conflicts.

Need to reduce consumption of oil and research alternatives much faster, one of highest priorities for society.

Need to collaborate with China and India on new tech for energy and to limit global warming.  E

Energy tech, innovation nd transition.