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PSC 303: International Relations
Guest Speakers for Spring 2005.
Prof. Jeremy Lewis, Revised 20 Feb. 2007.

Dr. Sudha Mohan, of Mumbai, India,Senior Fulbright Fellow, Columbia University,  "Pakistan-India Relations," "Indian Constitution," "Indian Politics", "Role of Women in India."  26-30 Jan, '05.  [Notes]


Chris Carr, PhD, Air War College, "War Talk in the Caucasus," Tues 29 Mar.
PhD, London School of Economics.
"Christopher Carr joined the AWC in 1998. Previously he was Senior Researcher, Center for Public Policy and Contemporary Issues, University of Denver. From 1986-8, 1989-93 he was Distinguished Visiting Professor in the Department of Political Science, US Air Force Academy. He has written articles on arms transfer policy and most recently contributed a chapter to Arms Control: Cooperative Security in a Changing Environment. His current research focuses on human insecurity in heavily weaponized communities, for which he has received support from the Institute for National Security Studies, US Air Force. Dr Carr holds a B.A. from the University of Lancaster, UK and a Ph.D. in International Relations from the London School of Economics (LSE). His areas of expertise include sub-state conflict, light weapons proliferation, civil conflict in Africa, 'Kalashnikov cultures', arms control, international organized crime." -- from AWC web page.

Summary:
The Causasus, between the Black Sea and Caspian Sea, is a dangerous and unsettled region comprising the republics of Georgia and Azerbaijan plus disputed regions of southern Russia, South Odettia and areas controlled by mountain warlords.  There is oil soon to be exported from Baku to the west via British Petroleum, plus a new democratic interest in Georgia.  The two are in tension.  Russian troops still have bases in Georgia, and the new democracy is in tension with its neighbors.  The US faces therefore a policy tension between supporting democracy and securing steady supplies of oil from Azerbaijan.

Guest Speaker: Chris Carr, PhD, Air War College, "WAR TALK IN THE CAUCASUS"
Notes by Alexander Zachos, March 29, 2005

  • Why would we be in war at the Caucasus?  [MAPS]
  • It is very plausible that a shooting war will happen in the Caucasus, Russia being the main enemy.
  • Russians owned this area of the world.
  • In Georgia, the Russians have a psychological tie.
  • In Armenia, matters are much more complex.  There are many more Armenians in the Diaspora (people living outside the actual sovereign country.)
  • Azerbaijan is the odd man out, they are a Muslim country who identifies with Turkey.  They also have oil reserves.  There is a lot of hate in this region of the world based on religion, ethnicity, etc.
  • When the Soviet Union broke up, these hatreds boiled up.  There is much hate between Armenia and Azerbaijan.  They had lived together peacefully for hundreds of years.
  • Mountain people are very different due to a regional difference, which is the mountain mentality.
  • 1988-Azerbaijan, the local community decided that the Armenians were going to attack.  They started to kill the Armenians in their own country, it occurred because of frustration.
  • Most Armenians that were inside Azerbaijan left the country to other parts of the  Caucasus.
  • Nigorno Karibak is owned by Azerbaijan, but the people are Armenian.
  • There was a nasty war between 1992-1994 where between 30,000 and 50,000 people died.  Mainly led by warlords; rape was used as a weapon.
  • The Azeries lost, and the Armenians won due to better leadership.  The Azeries talked to the Turks to blockade the Armenians, thus, the only way that the Armenians can get goods is through Iran, or Georgia.
  • Country without young people, trade and hope.  The thing that they have going for them is the Diaspora, who go out to different parts of the world and send money back.
  • This is called a remittance economy.  Without this, the Armenians would have no economy.
  • The Armenian Genocide- Happened in Turkey in 1915, where the Turks were scared of their collapsing empire, and killed between 800,000 and 2.5 million Armenians in Turkey.
  • Ther Armenians want the Turks to admit that it was genocide, then peace discussions can begin.
  • Oil: The U.S. should be concerned about the Caucasus because of oil.
  • The BTC Pipeline will pump 1 million gallons per day through, it is sweet oil, that doesn’t need to be refined very much.  It will never be more than 3 percent of the world’s oil
  • Azerbaijan had a civil war, the leader who emerged was Hadar Alyiev.  He is from Nachichevan, he makes a pact with the British government.
  • His son is known for losing three million dollars in one night in a casino, he starts grooming his son into a tough guy, Ilham succeeded to the crown the year before last.  They had fake elections, Ilham won with 92 percent.
  • Does oil trump democracy? This is the U.S.’s question that we must answer.
  • The Azeries will sell the oil to buy the weapons to take back over Nigorno Karibak.  This is always in the back of their minds.
  • There are more Azeries in Iran, than in Azerbaijan, this has interest for us.  There are many more religious radicals in Iran than in Azerbaijan, this could convert some of the modest Muslims to radicals.
  • Azerbaijan has a very corrupt government in Baku, Armenia is a concern because of the Armenian Diaspora in the US.
  • Georgia is the real concern for the U.S.
  • The Russians have a deep feeling for Georgia, Georgia died badly at the end of the Soviet Union, collapsed into civil war.
  • A group of Georgians called the foreign minister from Russia to get the people and country out of chaos.
  • Pankrisi Gorge is a harbor for terrorists, 2001 there were members of Al Quaeda, GTEP, to train.Georgians to clear out the bodyguards.
  • The Russians in Georgia see Americans to train the Georgians, to the Russians it looks like we are allying with the Georgian Sakashvilli government.  This is where the threat lies that there could be a shooting war with Russia.
  • Sakashvilli is young and in a hurry with less experience.  The things that make someone a good revolutionary doesn't make them a good peacetime president.
  • The Georgians will ask the Americans for help if they should fail for the two provinces inside Georgia against the Russians.  South Assetia, and Abkhazia.
  • Should Americans defend Sakashvilli and the Georgians against the Russians?
  • This is the debate that could lead to war
  • Ultimate paradox: We might actually get into a shooting war with Russia now, something that never happened during the 45 year Cold War.


    • Grant Hammond, PhD, Air War College,  "Technology, Globalization and Non-State Actors: A Revolution in Security Affairs" Thurs 31 Mar '05.
    "Dr. Grant T. Hammond is Deputy Director of the Center for Strategy and Technology (CSAT) and Professor of Strategy and International Security at the Air War College since 1989. Dr. Hammond is a frequent guest lecturer at home and abroad on defense issues, future conflict, creative thinking, strategy, and airpower. He was a major participant in two CSAF sponsored studies (SPACECAST 2020 and AF 2025). His publications include Countertrade, Offsets and Barter in International Political Economy(1990); Plowshares Into Swords: Arms Races in International Politics, 1840-1991 (1993) and The Mind of War: John Boyd and American Security (2001). He has published in a number of journals including Aerospace Power Journal, Defense and Security Analysis, Joint Force Quarterly, The Journal of Conflict Studies, Washington Quarterly, Small Wars and Insurgencies, and the Journal of Innovation and Management among others. He has contributed numerous book chapters as well. Dr. Hammond holds an A.B. from Harvard and M.A. and Ph. D. in International Relations from the School of Advanced International Studies of The Johns Hopkins University. His major areas of research are the strategic consequence of technological choice and future conflict." -- from AWC web page

    Dr. Grant Hammond, Air War College,  "Technology, Globalization and Non-State Actors: A Revolution in Security Affairs"  [Material has been removed from its temporary position on web site, as the author continues to develop his drafts for publication.]
    Summary:
    The future of conflict, with the development of new generations of high-tech weapons and control systems, may look very different.  Disruption of command and control, and the long term economics of developing new weapons, may mean adversaries are mismatched and wars may be very short.  Biological, radiological and electronic weaponry may supersede high explosives.  Proliferation of new tech could on the other hand erode the US hegemony in military force.  Non state actors are of growing importance, and asymetric warfare may continue to grow in frequency.  The goals of war may include destroying the confidence of a people in its government, hence information warfare may be increasingly important.



    Col. Steven Wright,  PhD candidate, Tufts U., Air War College, "Communitarian and Cosmopolitan IR Theory," T Apr. 19.
    "Colonel Stephen E. “Wilbur” Wright is a Professor of Warfighting, Air War College (AWC), Maxwell Air Force Base, Alabama. Before this assignment, he was a PhD student at The Fletcher School, Tufts University in Medford, MA. His operational expertise includes assignments in both the B-52D/G/H and B-1B, air operations center experience as the chief air strategist for 8th Air Force, and as a crisis action director for Air Combat Command (ACC) and division chief for ACC Director of Operations Information Operations Division. His command tours include the 9th and 28th Bomb Squadrons at Dyess AFB TX. He earned his BS at Texas A&M University and was a distinguished graduate of the Reserve Officer Training Corps. He holds master’s degrees in Industry and Technology (East Texas State University), National Security and Strategic Studies (Naval Command and Staff College), and Airspace Studies (School of Advanced Airspace Studies). He is currently working to complete his dissertation in International Relations and International Security Studies. He is a distinguished graduate of Squadron Officer School and a graduate of the Naval Command and Staff College. In 1997-98, he served as a National Defense Fellow in the International Security Studies Program, The Fletcher School, Tufts University. He is a command pilot with over 3,900 flying hours in the T-37, B-52, and B-1 aircraft." -- from AWC web page
    Wright, International Relations theories, notes [DOC] [PPT diagram [diagram, htm]
    President W. Bush, National Security Strategy 2002, PDF
    Wright, Communitarian Theory Notes [DOC]
    Wright, Cosmopolitan Theory Notes [DOC]

    Wing. Cmdr. Chris Luck, RAF, MBE, MA, Air Command and  Staff College, "The US and Europe", T 12 Apr.
    Wing Cmdr. Luck, currently teaching at the ACSC, is a Puma medium lift helicopter pilot, and a veteran of several conflicts since 1981, including the Falklands, the Balkans and both Gulf wars. [PPT] [HTM slides]



    Richard Chambers, PhD Princeton, Prof. Emeritus U. Chicago, "16th Century Superpower: the Ottoman Empire of Suleyman the Magnificent," Th 21 April.  [MAPS] [Ottoman Empire Government]
    (These notes do not include the hard copy handouts.)
  • Ottoman Empire


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