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PSC 305: Presidency & Congress | PSC 311: Voters, Parties & Elections | Charts of '07-'08 Polls

Democrats will meet in Denver, Colorado, August 25-28.

Republicans will meet in Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minnesota, September 1-4.

Conventions used to be lengthy, deliberating bodies making a real choice of presidential nominee.  Since the 1960s, however, the nominees have been essentially predetermined by the delegate count from the primaries and caucuses.

The first day is taken up with the platform debate over issues, the third night with vice presidential nomination, and the final night with presidential nomination (usually anointment).  Junior leaders have their moments in prime time to speechify.

Media network coverage used to be blanketing, but nowadays involves only an hour of prime time per evening.

NC:

In early March, Real Clear Politics average of polls showed a 9 point lead for Obama.

The state's black community is somewhat similar socially and economically to that of SC, which favored Obama.  NC also has more universities and more upscale white communities, which also might favor Obama.

COmmentators raised the issue of whether Obama can take the "Reagan Democrats" in the Fall.

Clinton gained substantial funds in the 24 hours after the victory.

Hillary Clinton won by almost 10 points, claiming a victory, and gathered slightly more delegates than Obama

Obama was damaged by a comment in San Francisco that in hard economic times, bitter rural voters cling to guns and religion.  THis was replayed by the Clinton campaign in blue-collar areas of PA such as Scranton.

Obama displayed a lack of bowling ability, inability to connect to blue collar white male voters.

CLinton took majorities of women, older voters, and white blue-collar males, especially CAtholics.

Obama took the upper-class suburban counties of the southeast, as well as black votes.

Clinton took the rural center of PA, women, older voters, and the western corridor, plus the rustbelt cities of the eastern corridor.

In early March, Real Clear Politics average of polls showed an 11 point lead for Clinton.

The state is fairly similar socially and economically to Ohio, which favored Clinton.

By the end of March, Obama's lead in the national opinion polls reaching 10% for the first time.  Some of this trend might influence PA.

Greenblatt's NYT Op-Ed piece, 2004, on Shakespeare's Brutus and Mark Anthony, and the Bush-Kerry debate.  (Thanks to Prof. James Truman.)

Around 19 March, Clinton pressed Obama to accept re-voting in MI and FL, two states which were stripped of their delegates for breaking party rules on Super Tuesday.  Both state parties, however, declined the cost ($23-30 million) of a second vote.  It therefore became highly unlikely that Sen. Clinton could win without a major shift in superdelegates.

he resigns from Obama's campaign committee, and Obama rejects the rhetoric, if not the man. [YouTube]

Potentially this gives ammunition for the general election opponents, although by then it may be old news.

when David Paterson, the Lt Gov of NY (legally blind and African American) takes office as Gov. after Gov. Spitzer's fall in a scandal, and admits his wife and he have an open relationship, with both having affairs.

Tony Rezco scandal is reviewed also on TV: property developer and longtime associate of Obama, fundraiser, Obama denies association with his corruption trial.

As expected, Obama won MS with 61 to Clinton's 37%.

Obama swept the large black vote, all western counties and some eastern.

Clinton did campaign briefly in MS to limit the loss of (proportionally allocated) delegates.  She won most of the white voters.

Rep. Geraldine Ferraro of Queens, NY, a former VP candidate in 1984, made remarks in the media that Obama would not be in the position he is without being black.  The remarks were only partly disowned by the Clinton campaign.

On the day, headlines were stolen by the exposure of the purchase of expensive prostitution services by Gov. Elliott Spitzer of New York, an aggressive former prosecutor who had been tipped as a future presidential candidate.

Notably, the Democrats pulled voters from a range of age groups -- while the earlier Republkican primary was largely limited to older voters.

won by Barack Obama 61 to 38%

as he had won caucus states before, with early intervention and a well organized "ground war" of volunteers contacting party members.

Sen. McCain surpassed the "magic number" of delegates causing Mike Huckabee to drop out, and President Bush to endorse McCain at the White House.

Sen. Clinton narrowly won the Texas primary, won Ohio convincingly, and Rhode Island.   She trumpeted in her victory speech that Ohio had successfully predicted the eventual winner for 44 years.

Sen. Obama, though he rose in the last week of pre-polls, won only Vermont -- plus the Texas caucus, a unique second stage of the voting.

Popular vote totals:

Dems: RCP shows Obama 13 M | Clinton 12.4 M, not counting FL & MI

Repubs: RCP shows McCain

Media issues before or after 4 March:

Obama let go two campaign advisers (one an academic who undercut his statements on ending the Iraqi war and the other who criticized Clinton.)

Clinton averred McCain would make a better national security president than Obama.

McCain confirmed that he had been asked by Sen. Kerry in 2004 about the vice presidency, but (as a Republican) had turned it down.

Chelsea Clinton continued to campaign for her mother (especially among college voters) without giving access to the press.

Clinton's "It's 3 am and who do you want in the white house answering the phone" ads were thought by commentators to have had an impact in TX and OH.

Delegates:

Sen. Obama retained his lead in delegates, which were divided almost equally.

It was not statistically probable that either candidate could achieve the "magic number" of democratic delegates on pledges alone.  Either one would also need a majority of superdelegates.  Thus the decision might go all the way to the convention, for the first time in decades.

Dems: Obama 1567 | Clinton 1462 | Edwards 26

Repubs: McCain 1253 | Huckabee 271 | Romney 2451 | Paul 14

States:

Texas:

Dems: Clinton 51% | Obama 47% | Edwards 1%

Repubs: McCain 51% | Huckabee 38% | Paul 5% | Romney 2%

Dem. caucus: Obama 56% | Clinton 44%

Repub. caucus: not available

The SW border zone holds many hispanic voters, likely to be loyal to Clinton.

The university city of Austin, plus black urban and white suburban areas elsewhere were likely to favor Obama.

The state's Republicans as a whole were likely to give a strong minority of votes to AR neighbor, Huckabee.

Obama did rise in the pre-polls from about 5 points down to about 3 points down, but Clinton was a well known figure from a neighboring state.

Ohio:

Dems: Clinton 54% | Obama 44% | Edwards 2%

Repubs: McCain 60% | Huckabee 31% | Paul 5%

The heavy proportion of rust-belt industries, having lost jobs over 20 years to foreign competition, and with a heavy proportion of union households, favored Clinton.

The southern half of the state, less industrial, and less populated, and including university towns, would be more favorable to Obama.

Expected to favor McCain, rather than the more-southern Huckabee.

A bellwether state, Ohio would have significance for the media as a predictor of the presidential vote.

Rhode Island:

Dems: Clinton 58% | Obama 40% | Edwards 1%

Repubs: McCain 65% | Huckabee 22% | Paul 7% | Romney 4%

small, urban (Providence) and with substantial blue-collar and Catholic vote, likely to favor Clinton.

Vermont:

small, with university towns and Yankee, independent voters, likely to favor Obama.

Sen. Clinton, with new campaign management, transmitted an ad, which asked, which candidate the parents of sleeping children would want to answer the White house phone, when an emergency occurred at 3am.

Sen. Obama responded with a similar ad, probably not as effective.

Sen. Clinton also appeared relaxed and humorous on two TV comedy shows, Saturday Night Live and Jon Stewart's Daily Show, which are often watched by younger voters.  The SNL sketch pointedly showed the press aggressively questioning Clinton while fawning over Obama.

By 1 March, CNN (from various polls) found:

Obama leading democrats in Texas with 46%, McCain leading republicans with 49%

Clinton leading democrats in Ohio with 47%, McCain leading republicans with 55%.

Clinton leading democrats in Rhode Island with 52%, McCain leading republicans with 65%.

Obama leading democrats in Vermont with 60%, McCain leading republicans with 73%

By the end of May, Obama held a lead in national surveys of about 6 points on Real Clear Politics.

the CNN national poll of polls showed Obama 50%, Clinton 40%.

the CNN National poll of polls showed 49% preferred McCain over 30% for Huckabee.

Real Clear Politics had stopped polling in February, and no polls on OH and TX were uploaded to its site.

USA Today poll tracker found Obama rising in nearly all recent polls in OH, TX and PA, within a few points of Clinton.

Obama had established a lead in delegates of 1,369 to 1,269

On the Republican side, Sen. McCain had 1,033 delegates of the 1,191 needed

Conspicuous superdelegates who switched to Obama included John Lewis (Civil rights pioneer) and US Sen. Chris. Dodd (experienced in foreign policy)

Hillary Clinton announced that since super Tuesday, when the campaign had almost run out of cash flow, she had received $35M.  Obama's staff announced that he had received about $50M.

In Ohio, Clinton was leading by about 19 points in surveys with two weeks to go.  Ohio voters include numerous union workers whose jobs are at risk from international trade -- a constituent group for Clinton.

In Texas she was about 5 points up -- a margin Obama could overcome with a campaign surge.  Texas has a substantial bloc of Mexican-American voters (about a quarter of Democratic voters), though, with historic antipathy to the black community (12% of the population).

Republican turnout was still well below the democrats, causing concerns for their performance in the Fall.

Sen. Clinton curiously warmly congratulated Sen. Obama in a televised debate, then strongly criticized him in a speech.

Sen. Clinton pointed out in debate that while Obama had "denounced" Louis Farrakhan, he had not "rejected" him.  Obama, bemused, won the exchange by saying he was happy to both denounce and reject.

Sen. McCain slipped up in a speech and said he was a conservative liberal Republican, meaning to contrast his conservatism with the liberal positions of Clinton and Obama.  He corrected himself with a joke, no harm done.

This appears to be the consolidation phase of the season, with minor candidates (except Ron Paul) already winnowed out.

McCain spoke as virtually the Republican nominee, refocussing his rhetoric against Obama rather than Huckabee.

Obama is still attracting record crowds and voter turnout, plus some types of voters who have previously supported Clinton.

Obama took not only Wisconsin's University zone of Madison, and black zone of Milwaukee in south east -- but also most counties, except for some rural counties.

McCain 47% | Huckabee 37% | Paul 5%

Obama 49% | Clinton 42%

Obama won WS and is biting into Clinton coalition -- Bill Schneider, polling

Obama on Super Tuesday was 42%, today 49%

Economic voters -- now a majority for Obama

White vote up from 41% to 53%

No college degree up from 42 to 54%

Obama's curves still rising among four groups:

white men (especially), middle income, age 50-60, white women

If Obama wins HI tonight, will have 23 states

Mountain got steeper for Clinton and after March 4 will face calls to drop out.

Thursday 21 Feb at 7pm CT, there will be CNN debates:

Hillary needs new message -- Jeff Toobin, CNN

experience v change

strong union supporter

plagiarism of Obama

needs economic message, strip out other references, too confusing to voters -- Roland Martin

Clinton return is being rejected, elections are mystical, -- Bernstein

McCain victory speech, focussed against Obama for the first time

I am not the youngest but I am the most experienced

"Americans are not deceived by an eloquent but empty call for change" [and other digs at Obama]"Promises no more than a holiday from history", "trusts more to government than the people."

will the next president have the judgment ...  and strength of purpose ... or risk the inexperienced ... who once suggested bombing our ally, Pakistan ..."

national security theme

McCain "I know what I am and I know what I want to do." -- Amy Holmes

McCain's speech was most important tonight -- Carl Bernstein

Obama

interwove policy speech on economics with inspirational message. -- Begala

Obama speech sounded substantive and Clinton's sounded empty this evening -- Carl Bernstein

Obama emphasized it will take more than speeches and policy positions to effect change

"Washington has become a place where good ideas go to die."

Clinton

uses "shattering tallest glass ceiling"

fighting for unions

president who relies on not just words but work, get America back to work

not not just speeches but solutions, get America back in solutions business

running to solve her problems

Clinton's speech was interrupted on CNN by switching to Obama live, though CNN played the rest of her speech right afterwards.

Obama took majority of : Health care and economy voters, union voters, all ages except elderly

Clinton staff admit that they really need Obama to stumble, and OH and TX are their firewall states, must hold.

Of the main candidates, it is Clinton who is having most trouble keeping her base.

Needs to stop talking about the whipping she has taken for 20 years, needs new speechwriter, exploit any weaknesses  -- Donna Brazile

Clinton campaign political malpractice, not contesting caucuses, speeches have not found her voice, now gave Obama ten victories (too focussed on major states), must reconnect emotionally with voters, not just another three point policy plan -- Dave Gergen

McCain 47% | 37% | {Paul 7%

Obama 49% | Clinton 48%

results announced 20 Feb., owing to time zone.

Why Conservatives dislike McCain, a claim checker article from PolitiFact.org

Note on Obama's voting "present" in Illinois legislature on anti abortion measures, equivalent to "No".

Note on Obama's voting "present" instead of “yea” or “nay” as Illinois state senator -- 129 times on bills dealing with issues including abortion rights, gun control and the privacy of sex-abuse victims.

Yes, Hillary Clinton did fail the DC Bar exam

Hillary Clinton's statement on mixed feelings about vote on tightening bankruptcy law

Heavy turnout in all three primaries, despite icy storms.

Dems: With a clean sweep of 3 primaries, Obama overtook Clinton in total delegates pledged -- as well as in states won.  She retains a lead in superdelegates.

Exit polls (Bill Schneider, CNN):

Obama carried Latino voters for the first time

economic voters now a large majority

McCain continued to win a majority of veterans (1/4 of MD Rub voters)

Conservative voters in MD (but not VA) gave a majority to McCain -- a first

Southern conservatives continue to vote for Huckabee

CNN conducted exit polls in VA but not in DC

Donna Brazile pointed out Obama now wins "Dunkin Donuts" Dems as well as "Starbucks Dems".  "Barack Obama has become a metaphysical force in Democratic polics."

Rubs: McCain also had a clean sweep -- and reached about 3/4 of the delegates needed to win the nomination

What if?

John King (CNN) demonstrated even if Obama "runs the board" with 55% in all remaining states, he still doesn't win the nomination without the help of superdelegates.

Rubs: same applies to Huckabee in the partly winner take all system.  (He would have to sweep all states with landslides to have any chance.)

Candidates' reactions:

Obama gave a victory speech from Madison, WS., his stock speech, still aimed at the Republicans (critical of Bush, more respectful of McCain -- but pointing out McCain now supports the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy that he previously opposed).

Clinton's "victory" speech from Texas was a slightly visionary speech ("I see an America where ...")

McCain's victory speech warned how the democrats would campaign on visions without accountability -- but added his own vision, that Americans are the makers of history, not its victims.

McCain's jabs at Obama "Not a promise of hope -- it's a platitude."  Approaching presidency not to save my country but with the humility that my country saved me.  Will listen to those who disagree (jab at W?) but will fight for what is right for country.

Clinton campaign shake-up:

Mike Henry, Deputy to Campaign manager Patty Solis Doyle, for Clinton, has resigned, following the manager's resignation. Maggie Williams, longtime chief of staff for Clinton, recently took over as manager.

Staff have commented that the money was spent too early for the protracted campaign -- the strategy had been to win decisively on super Tuesday. -- Suzanne Malveaux, CNN.

Clinton turned to attacking Obama's record today (on his vote to weaken a nuclear leak prevention bill in Illinois) -- Paul Begala on CNN (former Bill Clinton campaign consultant) supported this, a fair attack rather than a personal attack.

Clinton was already speaking in TX before the results came in from VA & MD -- presumably to create positive headlines and coverage, diverting attention away from losses in the Potomac primary.  She spoke to a backdrop of enthusiastic young women democrats, implying W. Bush is "all hat and no cattle."

Virginia:

Obama (63%) won a landslide over Clinton (36%)

McCain (50%) won a narrow victory over Huckabee (41%)

Western VA: Huckabee and Clinton took less populous rural and western VA counties

North VA: Obama and McCain took populous suburban north VA (middle class and upper middle class and military)

Eastern coast of VA: Obama mostly, but the Repubs are divided between military (McCain) and religious right (Huckabee)

Obama won every income group -- not just the over $50K family incomes, this time.

Maryland: extended voting hours because of foul weather

Dems: Obama (67%) beat Clinton (30%)

Rubs: McCain (55%) beat Huckabee (33%) in winner-take-all system

Exit polls show surge for Obama as he broadens his coalition

Women voters -- Obama took 59% of women in Maryland, a big increase over super Tuesday.

Rural voters -- Obama took 59% of rural voters, a similar increase over super Tuesday

District of Columbia: slow reporting from poll stations

Dems, as expected, supported Obama (75%), through large African American population -- to Clinton's 24%

Rubs (much smaller group) as expected, supported McCain (67%) over Huckabee (17%)

Superdelegates: Clinton and Obama campaigns courting them daily in phone calls.  One student who has never voted, revealed he even had a lunch with Chelsea Clinton, but is still undecided.

Hillary Clinton admitted to having lent her own campaign $5M in order to compete with Obama, but it was repaid in a few days with the increased funding post Super Tuesday.  She has raised $10 M since Super Tuesday 5-9 Feb.

Obama raised $32 M in January and claims more than Clinton in early February.

No polls were available in advance on Real Clear Politics -- perhaps indicating the campaigns were expected to be over by now.

Louisiana primaries occur in heavily black population in south, white & Republican population in north.

exit polling (Bill Schneider, CNN) shows personal reaction to Katrina and to national economic malaise show cleavage between party voters.  Most democrats know someone who suffered from Katrina -- and 90% of democrats believe economy is poor or not good.

republicans responded to exit polls they are born again and overwhelmingly conservative.

Huckabee won the Kansas caucuses (19,000 voting), and all 36 delegates: Huckabee 60% | McCain 24% | Paul 11% | Romney 3%

Kansas has a sizeable moral right population, (even if their champion, Sen. Brownback, did not support Huckabee.)

Romney announced -- to great disappointment -- he was suspending his campaign.  Reporters note he has applied his businessman's eye to the exit polls, and calculated he cannot win the presidency.

Romney's parting shot is that he is quitting because he loves his country, and by splitting the Republican vote he might be helping the democrats "surrender" to terrorism.  This inflammatory comment is ignored by the press.  (Notably, Romney did not say he loved his party.)

McCain used the word "conservative" repeatedly to this audience.  Reactions were mixed, some still considering him insufficiently conservative on moral issues like gay marriage (though he is anti-abortion).  Also noted were his resistance to Bush administration measures such as tax cuts and detaining without legal rights.

Huckabee gave a rousing top-of-the-bill speech to CPAC, from his lone-Republican roots in Arkansas, to conversion via Phyllis Schlafly's 1960s book A Choice, not an Echo, to his right-wing Christianity, tax cuts and other policy stands.

His lively and humorous speaking, without notes, surely makes him a rising star for 2012.  In college he did not major in economics -- he majored in miracles, and still believes in them.

McCain's staff notes the two get on very well, with mutual respect, and Huckabee's continuing campaign will maintain media interest in the Republicans, hence it seems likely they will become running mates.

McCain himself pointed out the Clinton-Gore example implies VP nominees do not have to balance geographically, so long as they balance politically.

President Bush called for party unity, implying conservatives should fall in behind McCain -- though without naming McCain.  He announced that the Executive Order against committee spending earmarks (those not voted on the floor) would bind his successors until reversed publicly.

Clinton and Obama are still tied in national polls at 42-41%.  They too have avoided denigrating each other for a while, and polls show voters would like a "dream ticket" of both of them.

Their policy arguments have been largely limited to shades of universality in health care, giving them essentially a united front on issues other than the war in Iraq.

The economy is confirmed as the top issue for half of the electorate, hence it seems a democratic year for both the presidency and the congress.  This gives a major incentive for the democrats to avoid attacking each other.

Veteran analysts on the Tim Russert Show (MSNBC) note the 50/50 Rule: Clinton takes democrats over 50 or with under 50,000 family income.  In other words, she takes the traditional democratic base while Obama takes more of the non-base voters and late deciders.

more evidence of late deciders surging for those two insurgents, and of their attraction to black voters (Obama) and white evangelicals (Huckabee)

A black, Yankee, presidential candidate has actually drawn more votes in "Alobama" than a white southern Baptist preacher!

Democrats:

Obama won 300,000 votes, 56%, 20 delegates -- above the pre-election opinion polls

Clinton second with 223,000 votes, 42%, 21 delegates

Edwards 8,000 votes, 1%, 0 delegates

votes were 60% female, older (62% over 40 years.)

Republicans:

Huckabee won 226,000 votes, 41%, 14 delegates -- above the pre-election opinion polls

McCain 207,000 votes, 37%, 13 delegates

Romney 100,000 votes, 18%, 0 delegates

Paul 15,000 votes, 3%, 0 delegates

Democrats (N=1006):

no gender gap: Obama took 57% of men, and 56% of women (who were 60% of Dems)

age: Obama took each age group save the over 60s (for Clinton)

race: Obama took over 80% of black vote

race: Clinton took 70% of white vote

religion: Obama took 60% of those who attend frequently, Clinton most of those attending rarely

Denomination: Clinton took Protestants, Obama the others.

Important Kennedy endorsement?: yes respondents helped Obama

most qualified C-in-C? half rated Obama best, and all voted for him.

education: Obama took all except those without High School

attitude to Bill Clinton: Alabama took all except the 42% strongly favorable.

gender of candidate important? 70% replied not important, and little effect.

regions: Obama led in all except north central (Huntsville.)

income and education: college educated preferred Obama, but little effect of income groups

Issues: half said economy, 1/4 Iraq, 1/4 health care -- Obama led in all

economic conditions? 90% said not so good or poor, but all groups favored Obama.

Party ID? Obama led among Democrats (82%) and the Independents split half and half.

Party & Race? Clinton led among white democrats and independents -- Obama took 83% of blacks.

Ideology? no effect, Obama took majority of each group.

Candidate quality? Obama led on change and cares, Clinton won on experience -- but they split electability.

Was race of candidate important? 69% said no.  (Belied by demographics, though).

Republicans (N=833):

No Gender gap: Huckabee took both men and women (men were 53% of Repubs)

age: Huckabee took young and middle aged, McCain over 60s (Repubs even older than dems)

abortion: McCain took Yes, Huckabee took No voters.

Church attenders: Huckabee took majority of the "more than weekly" 43%, McCain the rest.  There were hardly any "Never" or "Catholic" voters in the Republicans.

Giuliani endoresement important? Half said yes, favored McCain.

Democrats (60 delegates)

Clinton leading Obama by a few points (except AEA/Capital survey showed Obama leading).

The Intrade market valued Obama at 60 to Clinton's 40.

Republicans (48 delegates)

McCain (about 37%) leads in all recent polls by 2-9 points over Huckabee (about 31%).   Romney is third with about 18%.

The Intrade market valued McCain at 75, well ahead, but in low trading

In one Press-Register early January poll, Huckabee had led

delegate counts (from CNN Politics):

Democrats' new delegates: a dead heat with Clinton 540 | Obama 539

Total delegates now (including Clinton's lead in superdelegates):  Clinton 783 | Obama 709

Republicans' new delegates: a lead for McCain, with 447 | Romney 171 | Huckabee 140:

total delegates now: McCain, 559 | Romney 265 | Huckabee 169 | Paul 10

Candidates' sources of voters, from John Harwood, NY Times online video: each candidate strong with core constituency

• Dems:
• Clinton with women, older voters
• Obama with blacks, upper income
• next big date OH & TX for dems will favor Clinton
• LA vote will suit Obama
• Repubs:
• McCain strengthened lead
• Huckabee not pulling well outside his core Cons Christians
• Romney also not pulling well

Clinton leading over Obama nationally, and in all major states except Obama's Illinois.

McCain leading strongly over Romney and then Huckabee, nationally, and in all major states except Romney's Massachusetts.

In general election match-ups (though it is early days for prediction):

McCain leads over both Clinton and Obama, but within the marginal of sampling error.

both Clinton (narrowly) and Obama (handily) are likely to beat Romney

Clinton and Obama are likely to beat Huckabee, though narrowly

it may not entirely end both contests, since it seemed (in January) possible that there will be multiple winners of states in both parties.

at the beginning of Feb., a sweep by McCain and a narrow sweep by Clinton seemed possible.

even though delegates might be divided more closely, this would put pressure on lesser candidates to drop out to help their party.

Large states that have more delegates at stake (and major media centers) include California, Illinois, Massachusetts and New York.

Proportionate delegates are normal in Democratic primaries

but Republicans have some important, winner-take-all states: NY, CT and AZ.

Southern states include Alabama, Georgia and Tennessee.  (CNN may magnify AL and GA slightly, since they are based in Atlanta.)

These hold many values voters, southern evangelicals important in the Republican primary.

Huckabee may show strength in these states

Obama is expected to have some African American strength in AL and GA.

Western states include some that are based more on economic conservatives in the Republican primary.

Winner-take-all states are major prizes, even where they do not have large population, since the winner may take more delegates than in a larger state where delegates are awarded proportionately.

Clinton:  New York (39), California (20), New Jersey (10), (+ others in single digits)

Obama: Illinois (20), California (9), (+ others in single digits)

Edwards: North Carolina (9)

for Romney over McCain and Huckabee, until McCain won the Florida primary and gained media momentum (and presumably funds)

for Hillary Clinton over Barack Obama -- but Kennedy machine added to Obama's side could make a substantial counterweight. -- Tim Russert, 28 Jan.

No Democratic delegates at stake, owing to violation of party rules on dates.

Dem candidates agreed not to campaign in Florida, though Clinton decided to arrive when polls close.

Republicans have not won the White House without Florida since 1924

African Americans (15% of pop.) have been 1/5 Democratic voters, likely to favor Obama

Older voters, which may tend to favor Clinton and McCain -- and females at 55% may favor Clinton.

Hispanics are 17% of population, sought after by multiple candidates.

Northeastern Democrats have won since 1988.

Establishment Republicans (W. Bush, Dole, G. Bush) have won since 1988.

Democrats: Clinton 50%, Obama 33%, Edwards 14%

even without delegates at stake, over 1.6 M democrats turned out to vote.

Republicans: McCain 36% (57 delegates), Romney 31%, Giuliani 15%, Huckabee 14%

Over 1.7 M turnout

Giuliani, after spending $35 M to win only one delegate, his Florida-centered strategy in ruins, announced he will withdraw and support McCain.

McCain won on "best chance of winning in Nov." & among those critical of President Bush.

McCain lost on "shares my values" -- will need to talk more about appointing conservative judges, reach out to rightwing base.

Party seems to be in post-Reagan era, but not clear where it is headed.

47% reported (NBC) that the economy was their dominant issue, no longer national security.

by 28 Jan, RCP reported last-weekend polling found McCain rising even faster than Romney, both exceeding 30%.

by 26 Jan., in Real Clear Politics average of multiple polls

early leaders Giuliani and Huckabee were suddenly dropping from about 26% to under 18%

Romney and McCain were rising sharply from under 15% to 27%.

CNN poll by 22 Jan showed among Democrats: Clinton 42%, Obama 23%, Edward 12%

among Republicans: McCain 25%, Romney 23%, Giuliani 15%, Huckabee 15%

which attracted more coverage than the state of the union message.  The Kennedys indicated they sought a nicer tone to the campaign than had been interjected by president Clinton's comments about Obama's victory in SC.

Sen. Kennedy said Obama had opposed the war from the beginning and let no one tell you otherwise (a slap to Bill Clinton who had called his opposition to the war a fairy tale.)  This man is ready to be president on day one.  (Echoing Hillary's claim for herself).

Kennedy family members endorsed Clinton in LA Times article. (Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Kerry Kennedy -- offsetting the endorsement of Obama by Caroline, Teddy and Patrick).  "The loftiest poetry will not solve these issues [torture, eavesdropping and imperial power]. We need a president willing to engage in a fistfight to safeguard and restore our national virtues."

James Kirchick, "Angry White Man: The bigoted past of Ron Paul." The New Republic online, Tuesday, January 08, 2008.  A hard-hitting look at the racism, confederate revivialism, homophobia and anti-semitism of Ron Paul's old newsletters.

Giuliani, who has been a lively speaker for many years, has seemed lacklustre in his performances this time.  (It may be he is not in good health, following treatment for cancer.)  One reporter noted he doffs his glasses to speak except in question time -- and doesn't seem to connect with voters as he used to.

McCain and Giuliani have both been able to attract Hispanic voters in Florida, hence dividing that group.

Giuliani has input staff and effort to Florida, lining up advance voting which is a substantial portion of the Florida vote. (See James Carney, "The Phoenix", Time, 4 Feb. '08 -- but delivered 26 Jan.'08)  Advance voting in the week before the election accounts for 1M of the 10 M eligible voters, and exceptionally high proportion. -- Potus 08 channel, Xm radio, 28 Jan. '08.

His primary focus in the Senate has been on national security issues, whereas economics (the new focus of the campaign, given signs of recession) is not his strong suit.  (See Meet the Press, NBC, 27 Jan. '08)

McCain's frustration is that he -- as a southwestern Republican with a conservative voting record -- tends to attract more noticeable support from moderates, independents and democrats than he does from the southern and conservative bases.

McCain was endorsed 26 Jan by Gov. Charlie Crist of Florida a former college quarterback and intersted in the referendum on cutting property taxes.  Early endorsements and support sometimes imply the possibility of a Veep nomination.

• Obama wins an astonishing landslide with nearly 300,000 votes (a huge increase in turnout), especially late deciders, youth, 80% of the black vote and 20% of the white vote (mostly men).

Clinton is largely reduced to her base of white women voters, and only takes the upper class Myrtle Beach county.

Edwards only takes two northwestern rural counties (including his home).

• Voter % (delegates): Obama 55% (25) | Clinton 27% (12) | Edwards 18% (8)

This is a greater victory for an African American candidate than Jesse Jackson's pioneering win in 1988.

Commentators emphasized the 55% majority of SC voters who are black -- but failed to note the high female percentage, 61%, which could have favored Clinton.

Obama took a 54% majority of women, just as he did with black voters.

Obama took a majority of every age group under 60 years -- and two thirds of those under 30 years.

Among white voters over 30 years, Edwards led and Clinton came second.  This is not a god sign for Obama as the race moves into the mass of "whiter" states for Super Tuesday.

CNN Exit Poll: see http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#SCDEM

• Delegate totals now, pledged (total including superdelegates): Clinton 48 (230) | Obama 152 | Edwards 61

These have withdrawn: Biden, Dodd, Kucinich & Richardson -- but Gravel is still listed.

• Obama may now have -- at least -- a strong claim on the Vice presidential nomination, since he combines a similar set of policy positions with a different voter base than Clinton's.
• For the demographic argument, "It’s the demographics, stupid: The black candidate won the black vote. The white woman won white women. The white man won white men." see David Paul Kuhn, "The exit polls: Why Obama won" Politico.com, Jan 26, 2008 10:54 PM EST

2004: Sen. John Edwards won primary with 45 percent after campaigning as native son

Democrats had not held SC primary regularly before that.

24 Jan. Congressional leaders announce plan to give $150 Billion, to nearly all Americans below $75,000 income (couples below $150,000) $600 each ($300 more for each child), for an economic stimulus.  Those too poor to pay taxes will still receive $300.

This follows suggestions by Fed. Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke and by president Bush.  Bernanke, though, called for "Timely, Targetted and Temporary" payments -- but these will not be paid till summer, apply too broadly (including upper middle class who have a low propensity to spend, and include money for numerous small businesses, whose investments would not take effect for months.)

It seems likely the polls were accurate but were offset by a late surge in turnout for Obama in the last 24 hours.  The huge turnout suggests this.

Obama argued in resonse to the Clintons that he had accounted for all the cost of his programs, and theat people are looking for a different tone in politics this year.

Hillary claimed could not find cost of international aid and other programs in Obama's web site or in his speeches.

Distinction between words and actions by Clinton: Obama had voted against the war but consistently for the funding.

Obama responded effectively (early, 7:25 pm CT) that he had not supported Reagan's ideas, only remarked that Reagan had attracted Democrats.  Obama had been working among unemployed Chicagoans while Hillary was a corporate lawyer on the board of Wal-Mart.

Hillary attacked Obama for having represented a slum landlord in Chicago.  He replied that as an associate counsel, he had billed only five hours, and to a church client that was connected to the slum lord.  (Then he moved on to other matters.)

Obama defended voting against credit card limit of 30% on the grounds it was too high and ill prepared -- said Hillary had worked with banking and credit special interests.

Strategy: Hillary aggressively attacked Obama on his record, including Illiniois state legislature (this implies he is seen by her campaign as a leader for the SC primary.)  She and Edwards both ed about his habit of voting Present instead of for or against a bill, thereby suggesting he was indecisive.  Obama defended his having voted on 4,000 bills in IL.

Hillary also stood up firmly for universal health care, declaring she would never give up on the uninsured, and would expand the congressional health care system to those uninsured.

Overall, Obama took fire from both sides, as the likely leader in SC.  But he replied well and firmly.

Delegate scorecard: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/candidates/

Huckabee did slightly better with (the few) youth and with women, McCain slightly better with men and (the larger group of) older voters.

Huckabee pulled extremely frequent protestant church goers and those against abortion.

McCain attracted Catholics, less frequent protestant attenders, and those not against abortion.

Huckabee pulled those born in SC, and McCain those born outside SC.

43 percent thought McCain had the best chance of winning the general election.

Huckabee attracted the minority who thought campaign ads important, and those who were satisfied with the Bush administration -- McCain attracted those dissatisfied with the Bush administration.

Huckabee attracted the anti-immigrant voters.

Huckabee took Conservatives, Protestants | McCain took Catholics, Liberals and Moderates.

Huckabee took tax-cutters | McCain took budget balancers

Republican voters were 96 percent white, and 82 percent were Protestant.

2000: George W. Bush reversed John McCain's New Hampshire win with a solid SC victory

1996: Bob Dole won with 45 percent to Pat Buchanan's 29 percent

45% of Republican voters were over 60 years old.  Only 11% were under 30. 52% were male.

Romney swept to victory with support from conservatives, late deciders and veterans.

59% of Democratic voters were female. Voters were middle aged rather than elderly.

Edwards: 'I got my butt kicked'

The Clintons' supporters sued (unsuccessfully) to have the caucuses removed from workplaces such as casinos.

However the Clintons may have used this to play down expectations of their performance.

57% of Democrats were female, and spread across ages.

56% of Republicans were male, and 37% were 45-59 yrs.

An historic primary with record turnout, intense voter interest and with a female and an African American each attracting over 100,000 votes.

Democrats remained close: Clinton 39%, Obama 36, Edwards 17%

delegates won: Clinton 9 (total now 24), Obama 9 (25), Edwards 4 (18).

Republicans: McCain 37%, Romney 32%, Huckabee 11%, Giuliani 9%.

delegates won: McCain 7 (total 10), Romney 4 (24), Huckabee 1 (18).

Romney had won 67% of votes, 8 of 14 pledged Wyoming delegates in a recent contest ignored by the other candidates, and hence the media.  Fred Thompson took 25% and 3 delegates. (Time.com)

McCain won handily, despite having let go most of his staff in the summer, when he ran low on support.

Whereas Clinton took women over 60 in IA, she carried women over 40 in NH.

Exit polls showed those who were primarily concerned with immigration favored Romney; those primarily concerned with the war favored McCain and Obama. Economic voters favored Obama; experience voters favored Clinton; while traditional values voters favored Huckabee, but there were not so many as in Iowa.  (Bill Schneider, in CNN coverage and on CNNpolitics.com)

Obama and McCain both attracted independents, but Clinton took the Democratic base, and McCain more of the Republican base in NH than he is likely to take elsewhere.

Many NH voters registered as Independents, as usual, were able to vote in the Democratic primary.

In the 2000 primary, McCain had benefitted from the entry into the Republican primary of 60% of the undeclared. (Karen Tumulty, "Independents Day.  Why 'undeclared' voters could well be this year's kingmakers." Time 14 Jan., p.36.)

The pattern of voting districts in NH, with the west side + UNH Durham being more liberal, and the southeast with its inflow of Boston suburban professionals being more moderate, seemed to hold tonight.  Obama districts tended to fall west of the line and Clinton districts southeast.  The Dartmouth (west border) and UNH (southeast) academic voters came in later, but by 10 pm they were judged not enough to turn the Clinton victory to an Obama win, and the networks (led by AP) called Clinton victorious.

Tom Brokaw of NBC earned kudos for not calling NH to Obama earlier in the day.

Soon afterwards, Bill Richardson dropped out of race, even though he was expected to gain Hispanic votes in the Super Tuesday states.

All campaigns were running low on cash after NH, though reportedly some large sums flowed in via the internet right after the results were announced.

Heard Hillary and Barack giving two victory speeches in NH primary, and McCain did well -- so we have three competent and attractive candidates for November, none of whom has ever run a state or any large public organization.

Obama's speech was as usual more eloquent than the others, invoking the intonation of Martin Luther King -- and he looked fresher than the others.

Huckabee is also rising rapidly in the polls in several major Feb 5 states -- making four of them.  At least he has governed a small state for 2 years, like Carter in 1976.

Although there was a high turnout of youth, there was a surge of older voters deciding late and turning out for Clinton in the last two days.

Polls favoring Obama in the last two weeks were a surprise -- but these made the result for Clinton a bigger surprise on the night.

Some commented that Obama had taken fewer risks in the last 48 hours by holding back on his appearances with the media -- when he needed to go all out to motivate voters.

Others argued Clinton's late surge was due either to the emotional moment on TV, or -- much more powerful -- her large and well run ground staff and GOTV effort.

The media hype over misleading polls was embarrassing (especially Lou Dobbs of CNN), since few except Bill Schneider and John King of CNN (and Nora Donnell of NBC) were careful to look at demographic groups.  Groups that actually turned out were simply different from the balance of likely voters surveyed several days beforehand.

I'm so sick of hearing the word "change" in everyone's speeches for the past week.  Clearly, poll respondents were emphasizing change and values over experience.

Of those who favored experience, Clinton won overwhelmingly.  She (like Obama and McCain) has never served as a cabinet secretary or Governor.  The Senate is not the best place to develop executive ability over large organizations.

Carlton Tucker on XM radio POTUS 08, explained McCain's unusually favorable press: he's by far the most open candidate, joshing on the bus and off for 18 hours a day, joking with Sen. Lindsay Graham and an entourage.  Most other candidates are far less accessible -- even those who appear accessible in public speeches.

The media's faith in polls conducted more than a month before the NH primary makes the heroic assumption that voters pay attention and decide before the hectic final week of campaigning.  Yet we know from previous years that NH voters often decide in the final days.

Treated by the press as a human moment for a candidate seen as too disciplined.

Compared with Ed Muskie's [D-ME] emotional moment in Manchester in 1972, which cost him the press despite winning the NH primary, in Vaughn Ververs, "Choking Up in NH?", Horserace '08, CBSnews.com, 7 Jan. '08.

MSNBC version: Matt Lauer's video package, interviewing Hillary "after a long campaign day" about the video, then showing it.

However, CNN later reported the woman who had asked the question later voted for Obama.

[Obama lacks the high disapproval ratings of Clinton.]

CBS video of Huckabee bumping into Giuliani, asking for his vote.

CBS video: Hillary greets sexist protesters who demand she iron their shirts.

"Among likely Democratic primary voters, Obama leads Clinton 35 percent to 28 percent with John Edwards getting 19 percent in the poll. The poll re-interviewed the same group of voters that CBS News surveyed in November. In that poll, Clinton led Obama 39 percent to 19 percent with Edwards getting just nine percent support."

"Forty-two percent in the latest poll said they believe Obama has the best chance of winning the general election, up from just 11 percent in November."

"Forty-one percent of independents [many, in NH] support Obama, compared to just 24 percent who say they are backing Clinton."

"This poll was conducted by telephone January 5-6, 2008 among registered voters in New Hampshire, first interviewed by CBS News and the New York Times November 9-12th, 2007. CBS News re-interviewed 323 likely Democratic Primary voters for this poll. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample of Democratic primary voters could be plus or minus five percentage points. The error on measures of individual change is much smaller."

Rudy Giuliani's once solid lead in nationwide polling of Republican voters has vanished. The latest nationwide survey finds about equal levels of support for John McCain (22%), Rudy Giuliani (20%), and Mike Huckabee (17%).

Huckabee led among white evangelicals, Giuliani among Catholics.

The poll, conducted Dec. 19-30 [note long period, masks some change] among 471 Republican and Republican-leaning registered voters nationwide, finds that Giuliani's support has slipped 13 points since September. Huckabee has gained 13 points over that period, and McCain has rebuilt his base nationwide from a low of 16% in September to 22% today.

Among Democrats, Pew did not find Clinton's lead had dropped by December, though they did record a slight rise for Obama and Edwards in their December poll.

Pew Center's data archive, contains poll results on various policy questions

Pew Center's note on telephone poll methodology

Pew Center "NewsIQ" Knowledge Quiz, compares you to national sample, early 2007

2004 Howard Dean led before IA but lost IA & NH to Kerry

1996 Dole led in trial heats, but Buchanan won in NH, got large bounce, but Dole won nation.

1980 Reagan led, lost IA to Bush, but Reagan won NH and then nation

1976 obscure Carter won IA & NH, then nation

Name identification has risen greatly for Edwards and Obama during the year

In the poll, taken Friday through Sunday:

•McCain narrowly trails Romney among Republicans but leads him among independents by almost 2-1. They can vote in either primary. [Note that NH independents do consistently vote for one party].
•Obama leads Clinton by eight points among Democrats and 23 points among independents. Women split between them evenly; he leads among men, 49%-20%. Obama also leads narrowly among seniors [formerly her strength] and by an overwhelming 3-1 among voters under 35.

Among Republicans, McCain (up) at 33%, Romney (down) 25, Giuliani 14, Huckabee 11, Paul (up) 9.

McCain leads on experience, inspiring and shared values, but Romney equals him on chance of beating Democrats and bringing needed change.

20% would not vote for a Mormon

Among Democrats, Clinton 33%, Obama (up) 33, Edwards (up) 20.

Clinton wins on experience, but Obama wins on values and inspiring.

Obama equals Clinton on chance to beat Republicans.

Likely Dem. Voters prefer change to experience by 61 - 29%

Overwhelmingly they believe the country is ready for a black or a female president.

Candidates with the most cross-party support were Obama and McCain.

Poll N= 675, +/- 4 points for electorate, 5 points for each party.

See http://i.a.cnn.net/cnn/2008/images/01/05/top10.pdf

441 will come from California alone, on 5 Feb.

Only 57 actually come from IA and only 30 from NH.  These states are far more important for media coverage than delegates.

Over 3000 pledged delegates will be selected in primaries and caucuses.

Almost 800 unpledged delegates (super delegates) come from party officials.

A few states, that attempted to move up their contests, were stripped by the party of some or all delegates.

See  http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/primaries/democraticprimaries/index.html

The "magic number" of delegates needed to win is 2,025 (CNN)

173 will come from California alone, on 5 Feb.

Only 40 actually come from IA and only 12 from NH.  These states are far more important for media coverage than delegates.

A few states, that attempted to move up their contests, were stripped by the party of some or all delegates.

See http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/primaries/republicanprimaries/index.html

The "magic number" of delegates needed to win is 1,191 (CNN)

Democrats' results, from NY Times.com: Obama 38%, Edwards 30%, Clinton 30%, others well behind.

Obama took the urban areas; Edwards took south central (Methodist) counties; Clinton the conservative north and west river counties.

Republicans' results: Huckabee 34%, Romney 25, Thompson 13, McCain 13, Paul 10, others well behind.

Huckabee took most counties, including all of the interior; Romney took the East and west river borders, Paul the University of Iowa.

Republican county conventions in Wyoming, 5 Jan. '08: Romney 67%, Thompson 25%, others well behind.  There was little or no media coverage.

Romney put in some effort, unlike the other candidates.

See  http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/index.html

 

Polls before Iowa

The final Des Moines Register poll — Mr. Huckabee up by six points and Mr. Obama by seven

The war is still seemingly a major background factor in the campaign.  Polls in the past six weeks — Pew, ABC News-Washington Post and Wall Street Journal-NBC News -- all showed the percentage of Americans who believe that the war is going well has risen just as violence has declined — from about 30 percent in February to 48 percent in November. However, the public continues to oppose the war and disapprove of President Bush -- and favor withdrawal of troops regardless of the surge. See http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/06/opinion/06rich.html?em&ex=1199854800&en=9bb5369649eba7fb&ei=5087%0A

Mike Huckabee's "arrogant bunker mentality" criticism of Bush's foreign policy seemed to be appreciated even among fellow Republicans.  "American foreign policy needs to change its tone and attitude, open up, and reach out. The Bush administration's arrogant bunker mentality has been counterproductive at home and abroad." [Michael D. Huckabee.  2008.  "America's Priorities in the War on Terror: Islamists, Iraq, Iran, and Pakistan,"  Foreign Affairs, January/February 2008 .]