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PSC 305: Presidency & Congress | PSC 311: Voters, Parties & Elections | Charts of '07-'08 Polls
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award-winning teacher, author, and my former tutor in psephology, who died in Fall 2007. He would have loved this election season. |
Awarded the Silver Star, the Bronze Star, the Legion of Merit, a Purple Heart and the Distinguished Flying Cross after his release as a POW in Vietnam. McCain's father and grandfather were both U.S. Navy admirals. They were the first father and son to achieve that rank. He is often described as a "maverick" for his independent and sometimes divisive stances on issues. In 2002, he became the first sitting U.S. senator to host "Saturday Night Live." He is author of "Faith of My Fathers" (1999); "Worth the Fighting For: A Memoir" (2002); "Why Courage Matters" (2004); and "Character Is Destiny" (2005).
Abortion: Opposes abortion rights except in cases of rape, incest or to protect the life of the mother. Immigration: Co-sponsored Bush-backed immigration reform legislation, which would have increased funding and improved border security technology, improved enforcement of existing laws, and provided a legal path to citizenship for some illegal immigrants. Voted to authorize construction of a 700-mile fence along the U.S.-Mexican border. Iraq: Voted for use of military force in Iraq. Supported Bush veto of war spending bill that would have withdrawn most U.S. troops by March 2008. Was an early proponent of sending additional American troops to Iraq. Same-sex marriage: Supports definition of marriage as a union between a man and a woman, but opposes a constitutional amendment banning same sex-marriage. Says individual states should decide the issue. Says a federal marriage ban might be appropriate if courts overturned state marriage laws. Supports legal benefits for same-sex partners. Social Security: Supports Bush plan to allow workers to divert some Social Security payroll taxes to private retirement accounts. Taxes: Voted against 2001 and 2003 Bush tax cut laws, but later voted in favor of extending tax cuts through 2010.
Rick Davis, Campaign manager, Served as campaign manager for McCain's 2000 presidential run. Phil Gramm, Campaign co-chairman, U.S. representative and senator from Texas from 1978 to 2003. Tom Loeffler, Campaign co-chairman, Lobbyist, former U.S. representative from Texas and Reagan administration official, national finance co-chair for Bush's 2000 campaign.
TOTAL as of 12/31/2007 Raised: $42,094,077 Spent: $39,145,649 Cash-on-Hand: $2,948,427
Filed a statement of candidacy with the FEC on January 3, 2007 Current job: Term as Massachusetts governor ended in January 2007 Birth date: March 12, 1947; Detroit, Michigan Family: Married Ann Davies (1969-present); five children Religion: Mormon Education: Brigham Young University, B.A., 1971; Harvard University, M.B.A., J.D., 1975 Campaign Web site: www.mittromney.com
1978-1984: Vice president at management consulting firm Bain & Company Inc. 1984: Founded Bain Capital, a venture capital and investment company. 1994: Ran unsuccessfully as the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate against incumbent Ted Kennedy. 2002: With the 2002 Winter Olympics mired in controversy, he took over as president and CEO of the Salt Lake Organizing Committee. 2002: Elected governor of Massachusetts. He did not seek a second term in 2006.
His father, George Romney, was a three-term governor of Michigan and made an unsuccessful run for the GOP presidential nomination in 1968. Romney is the author of "Turnaround: Crisis, Leadership, and the Olympic Games" (2004).
Advisers:Abortion: Opposes abortion rights except in cases of rape, incest and to protect the life of the mother. Supported abortion rights as a 1994 Senate candidate. Immigration: Opposes Bush-backed guest worker plan, saying it goes too far in expanding future immigration levels. Calls for a better system for employers to verify legal status of workers. Opposes allowing illegal immigrants to gain legal status apart from existing procedures available to all non-citizens. Opposes in-state tuition breaks for illegal immigrants. As governor, authorized use of state police for immigration enforcement. Iraq: Supported Bush veto of Iraq war spending bill that would have withdrawn most U.S. troops by March 2008 at the latest. Opposes troop withdrawal. Supported the president's plan for additional troops in Iraq. Same-sex marriage: Opposes same-sex marriage. Opposes civil unions, though had supported a Vermont-style civil unions law for Massachusetts. Social Security: Has suggested creating an independent panel to formulate a plan to reform Social Security. Taxes: Supports Bush tax cuts.
Beth Myers, campaign manager, Served as Romney's gubernatorial chief of staff. Carl Forti, deputy campaign manager/political director, A former communications director at the National Republican Congressional Committee. Matt Rhoades, communications director, A former research director at the Republican National Committee. Alex Castellanos, senior advisor, Has worked for several GOP presidential campaigns including that of President Bush; principal in the Alexandria, Va. Firm National Media Inc. Kevin Madden, national press secretary, A former spokesman for House majority leaders John Boehner, R-Ohio, and Tom DeLay, R-Texas; a spokesman for President Bush's 2004 presidential campaign. Alan Philp, head of "Idea Factory", Policy director for then-Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, director of anti-Democrat Colorado 527 group, executive director of the Colorado Republican Party Vin Weber, policy chairman, Chair of National Endowment for Democracy and CEO of Clark & Weinstock, former U.S. representative from Minnesota Sally Canfield, policy director, Policy adviser to then-House Speaker Dennis Hastert, former deputy chief of staff at Department of Homeland Security
TOTAL as of 12/31/2007 Raised: $90,076,402 Spent: $87,644,955 Cash-on-Hand: $2,431,447
Adam Nossiter and David Barstow, "Charming and Aloof, Huckabee Changed State" NY Times, 22 Dec. 2007 Gov. Huckabee took numerous gifts and attacked any critics Gov. Huckabee commuted sentences of numerous convicts, gave few reasons, and was angry at critics. He appeared gullible to stories of redemption and conversion. Gov. Huckabee allied with democrats to close numerous redundant schools in rural areas, antagonizing small towns with football team identities.
Huckabee is the author of several books, including "From Hope to Higher Ground: 12 STOPS to Restoring America's Greatness" (2007), "Quit Digging Your Grave With A Knife And Fork" (2005) and "Living Beyond Your Lifetime" (2000). In 2003, Huckabee was diagnosed with Type 2 diabetes and lost more than 100 pounds over the next year.
Abortion: Opposes abortion rights. Immigration: Supports Bush-backed immigration plan that provides a path to citizenship for some illegal immigrants. Believes some Republican plans to deport illegal immigrants are "unworkable." Iraq: Has offered qualified support for Bush Iraq policy, saying the president has access to military and diplomatic information that is not publicly available. Opposes congressional resolutions that express opposition to the president's plan to increase the number of American troops in Iraq. Opposes proposals to cut funding for the war. Same-sex marriage: Opposes same-sex marriage. Social Security: Supports Bush plan allowing workers to divert some Social Security payroll taxes into private retirement accounts. Taxes: Supports a "FairTax" plan.
John "Chip" Saltsman, campaign manager, Senior political advisor for former Sen. Bill Frist's VOLPAC, chairman of the Tennessee Republican Party. Kirsten A. Fedewa, communications consultant, Communications director and press secretary to the National Republican Governors Association, vice press secretary for the National Republican Congressional Committee, owns communications/strategy firm. Alice Stewart, press secretary, Huckabee's gubernatorial press secretary, weekend anchor and reporter for KARK-TV in Little Rock, worked at several television stations in the South. J. French Hill, finance chairman, Chairman and CEO of Delta Trust & Banking Corp. and a director of Delta Trust & Bank. Served as a special assistant to President George H.W. Bush for economic policy. Eric Woolson, Iowa consultant, President and CEO of the media and government relations firm The Concept Works, communications director on then-Gov. George W. Bush's Iowa caucus campaign, communications director for Gov. Terry Branstad. Dick Dresner, political consultant, Principle in the GOP consulting firm Dresner, Wickers & Associates, clients include former California Gov. Pete Wilson, Vermont Sen. Jim Jeffords, Minn. Sen. Norm Coleman, Nebraska Gov. Mike Johanns as well as Russian President Boris Yelstin, New York Democratic Sen. Daniel Patrick Moynihan and then-Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton. Gov. Mike Rounds, chairman of the National Steering Committee, South Dakota's governor since 2003
TOTAL as of 12/31/2007 Raised: $8,990,477 Spent: $7,107,364 Cash-on-Hand: $1,896,445
Famous keynote speech at 2004 democratic convention Barack Obama videos on YouTube
Janny Scott, "Obama’s Account of New York Years Often Differs From What Others Say", NY Times, 30 Oct. '07 Obama's memoir leaves out much of his New York experience, omits people around him [strange in a future politician] and gives a different perspective about his work than colleagues recall -- widespread poetic license is used in his memoir. Dan Armstrong, who worked with Mr. Obama at Business International Corporation in New York in 1984, blog corrects Obama's memoir of work in NY city, although supportive (search for Obama). "But when Barack Obama invents facts in a book ranked No. 8 on the NY Times nonfiction list, it not only fails to be noticed but it helps elevate him into the national political pantheon." The company was an informal business publisher, not a formal consultancy. His aloofness as a young man is echoed by his keeping at arms length the press on the campaign bus. Note on his voting "present" in Illinois legislature on anti abortion measures, equivalent to "No". From PolitiFact.org
Famous keynote speech at 2004 democratic convention
Current job: U.S. senator from Illinois Birth date: August 4, 1961; Honolulu, Hawaii Family: Married Michelle Robinson (1992-present); Children: Natasha (2001) and Malia Ann (1999) Religion: Christian; attends Trinity United Church of Christ in Chicago Education: Columbia University, B.A., 1983; Harvard University, J.D., 1991 Campaign Web site: www.barackobama.com
1990s: Practiced civil rights law and taught constitutional law at the University of Chicago Law School. 1997-2005: Illinois state senator, representing the 13th District. 2000: Ran for a U.S. House seat but lost primary to former Black Panther Bobby Rush. July 27, 2004: Delivered keynote address at the Democratic National Convention. November 2004: Won the U.S. Senate seat in Illinois, defeating Alan Keyes. It was the first time in history a Senate general election race was between two African-American candidates. He is author of "Dreams From My Father: A Story of Race and Inheritance" (1995); "The Audacity of Hope: Thoughts on Reclaiming the American Dream" (2006) and "It Takes a Nation: How Strangers Became Family in the Wake of Hurricane Katrina" (2006). Obama won a Grammy Award in 2006 for best spoken album for his reading of "Dreams From My Father." In his 1995 autobiography, Obama confessed to experimenting with marijuana and cocaine as a teenager. In 2006, he toured five African countries, including a visit to Nyangoma-Kogelo, Kenya, his late father's hometown. He was the first African American to be president of the Harvard Law Review.
Abortion: Supports abortion rights. Immigration: Supported Bush-backed immigration reform legislation, which would have increased funding and improved border security technology, improved enforcement of existing laws, and provided a legal path to citizenship for some illegal immigrants. Voted to authorize construction of a 700-mile fence along the U.S.-Mexican border. Iraq: Opposed use of military force in Iraq. Voted for war spending bill that would have withdrawn most U.S. troops by March 2008. Supports phased redeployment of U.S. troops. Opposed Bush's plan to send additional troops to Iraq. Had once called for troop withdrawal to begin by the end of 2006. Same-sex marriage: Opposes same-sex marriage, but also opposes a constitutional ban. Supports civil unions. Social Security: Opposes Bush plan allowing workers to divert some Social Security payroll taxes into private retirement accounts. Taxes: Opposed extending 2003 Bush tax cut law through 2010. Supports eliminating marriage penalty and extending child tax credit. Supports scaling back capital gains and dividends tax cuts and re-examining tax benefits for the top one percent of earners.
David Axelrod, Senior strategist, A former Chicago Tribune political reporter who advised Edwards during his 2004 presidential bid. David Plouffe, Campaign manager, Former executive director of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and senior aide to House Minority Leader Richard Gephardt. Pete Rousee, Chief of staff, Former chief of staff to Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle Julianna Smoot, Finance director, A former finance director for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, raised more than $25 million in the first fundraising quarter of 2007. Jim Margolis, Senior advisor, A media strategist with close ties to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. Steve Hildebrand, Campaign adviser and strategist, An "early state" expert who served as Iowa director of Vice President Al Gore's presidential run Robert Gibbs, Communications director, A former communications director at the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Betsy Myers, Chief operating officer, Clinton administration official, sister of former Clinton press secretary Dee Dee Myers
TOTAL as of 09/30/2007 (more out of date than the other reports) Raised: $80,256,427 Spent: $44,169,236 Cash-on-Hand: $36,087,191
Abortion: Supports abortion rights. Immigration: Supported Bush-backed immigration reform legislation, which would have increased funding and improved border security technology, improved enforcement of existing laws, and provided a legal path to citizenship for some illegal immigrants. Voted to authorize construction of a 700-mile fence along the U.S.-Mexican border. Iraq: Voted for use of military force in Iraq, but now says she would have voted differently "if we knew then what we know now." Supports de-authorizing the war. Voted for war spending bill that would have withdrawn most U.S. troops by March 2008. Opposed Bush plan to increase the number of American troops in Iraq. Supports a phased redeployment and a cap on the number of American troops in Iraq. Same-sex marriage: Opposes same-sex marriage but supports civil unions. Says states should ultimately decide the issue. Opposes a constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage. Social Security: Opposes Bush plan allowing workers to divert some Social Security payroll taxes into private retirement accounts. Taxes: Opposed 2001 and 2003 Bush tax cuts. Opposed extending tax cuts through 2010.
Patti Solis Doyle, Campaign manager, An advisor for Clinton who started working for the senator when she was the first lady of Arkansas Mark Penn, Pollster, with additional strategic duties. Terry McAuliffe, Campaign chair, A longtime Clinton confidante and former Democratic National Committee chair Howard Wolfson, Communications director, A former executive director of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and partner in a Washington public relations firm. Mandy Grunwald, Media consultant, A political aide long associated with the senator and President Clinton Jonathan Mantz, Finance director, A former chief fundraiser for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. Ann Lewis, Senior adviser, women's outreach, Communications director for Sen. Clinton's PAC, counselor to President Clinton, chair of DNC's Women's Vote Center, Planned Parenthood executive Peter Daou, Internet director, Edited "Daou Report" on Salon.com, online communication adviser to Sen. Kerry's 2004 presidential campaign
TOTAL as of 12/31/2007 Raised: $118,301,659 Spent: $80,353,785 Cash-on-Hand: $37,947,874
No amnesty, but 2M here, those who committed crimes must be deported. Cannot be rewarded for illegal behavior, must secure borders first. Deportation selective -- may have grandchildren locally, must be humane and compassionate. Temp. worker program to fill jobs -- mass deportation would hurt economy.
OBL is instructing recruits in terrorism, a continuing threat, not merely holed up somewhere. I have relationship with Musharraf, would not attack OBL at expense of Musharraf.
Yes, so long as none being killed or wounded (examples of South Korea, Kuwait, Saudi), but depends on relations with local governments. Permanent bases OK, if local conditions fit. Depends on nat sec threat. AQ is on the run and surge has succeeded. Problem with Iraq was not going in, it was mishandling afterwards. We had causes (listed) of war, other than WMD. Lawlessness, disorder and Abu Ghraib scandal helped recruit for AQ.
Presidents who were Governors (RWR, JEC) without foreign experience? RWR did have some experience abroad.
Change exchange in last night's debate, Edwards provoked Clinton into angry and aggressive response but she did better when relaxed in second part of debate. Possibly a mistake to Clinton campaign in IA, but would have had to decide some time ago. In any other year, turning out 72K voters in IA for Hillary would have been hugely successful. Meet the Press was turned down by several candidates this week. Several states this week, followed by Super Tuesday. Cannot win 5 Feb. without early wins to raise good buzz and money. Obama will start to win black vote, which is currently loyal to Clinton. NH poll, recently: 32 McCain, 25 Romney, 12 Huckabee -- H has no bounce from IA. Independents are heavily for McCain, important in NH -- like Obama among democrats. NH gives high negatives to Huckabee -- NH doesn't like southerners with belt buckles. Michigan coming up, native state for Romney.
McCain called Romney candidate of change -- R has changed all positions. Others do not like Romney, do not see him as authentic. They ganged up on him in debate. He has not had to suck up to donors as they have. Huckabee embraced Obama, unlike other Republicans -- H has great ear for voterspeak. Obama and McCain will be nominees, say both consultants.
Gibson drew out candidates well, giving them seated format with chances to debate each other, with limited interventions by moderator. Second part was questioning by Gibson and a local TV reporter, Scott Spradling. Republicans: McCain clearly attacked Romney for having changed his positions during campaign. Democrats: Edwards attacked Clinton on issue of agent of change -- positioned himself with Obama rather than against him. Neither Giuliani nor Clinton established themselves as dominant executives in the debates. ABC partnered with Facebook for the debate, though that part was a spurious online polling and commenting page, with low quality discussion.
Nuclear terrorism not much discussed this year, video by Brian Ross. Would Obama go into Pakistan and go after them? O: would cooperate with government of Pakistan, encourage democracy -- but if they would not do so and we had actionable intelligence, we should strike. Worked by Sen. Lugar on foreign relations in Senate. Rebuild nuclear nonproliferation policy. O: would strike if actionable intelligence, even in Pakistan. Edwards: presently ad hoc policy, nation by nation, but this does not work in long term. Richardson: use diplomacy first, avoid inflaming muslim world, policy of principles and realism. We have leverage to get Musharraf to step aside for a caretaker government. Clinton: tried years ago to take out OBL with missiles, based on oactionable intelligence. Failed. We lacked enough troops to capture OBL in mountains. When missiles launched, Pakistani government has to know because of paranoia there about india. Richardson: we are paying for support of Shah in past in Iran. Must be on side of people not dictator, have opportunity to get Musharraf to step aside. $11 Bn assistance he has not used against terrorism -- has diverted. O: flaw in Bush program was going after those who did not attack US -- iraq a distraction. actions after any nuclear terrorist attack? E: would ahve to strike back O: would ahve to retaliate against a nuclear attack, but need to rebuild NPT after Bush administration. C: there would be no safe havens, every state that harbors terrorists must know we would retaliate. R: as Sec of Energy, securing nuclear stockpiles in USSR was part of job. Now has been eroded, and port security is weak. ALso environmental challenges (listed) but Bush believes in unilateralism and preemption. Domestic policy and spending, entitlements, Betsy Stark on video, Social Security by 20xx will start paying out net, Medicare earlier, by 2017. How, based on recent statements by C, does O not have experience for change? C: O has proposed different plans on health care, we all need scrutiny. O: entirely consistent, would design system from scratch, our system costs twice as much per capita as any other nation. Problem is not people avoiding health care, they can't afford it. Need to raise payroll tax ceiling so rich pay it also. C: you have changed positions over 3 yrs, voted for Patriot Act after saying against it. Charges against Edward and myself apply to you also. O: mandate health care for children because they have no choice -- but adults do. We have legitimate differences. E: Both O and I are for change, and we came top in IA. Forces of status quo always attack those who rep. change. We have differences, but now we are attacked by Sen. C. when she is no longer ahead. H: real change is children in NH having health care from my plan. 35 years of change. Need to deliver change. [Forceful] R: I have been in hostage negotiations that have been more civil [laughter.] I love change, but examine record. E: fight for middle class. Corps can be good or bad. Need to take on entrenched special interests. O: government transparent and accountable, greatest reforms since Watergate. Surge you all opposed has signs of working -- video by Terry McCarthy, on decline of US and local deaths in last few months. Political progress frustratingly slow. Has surge worked? C: still skeptical because purpose of surge was to give time for political solution but Iraqis are not doing what they need and we should bring the troops home. Will start withdrawal within 60 days. R: 3900 Americans lost lives, 60,000 wounded including mentally. No reconciliation or oil revenue sharing. Zero. Maliki government training, end to terrorist activities, No. Until we end war, cannot talk about issues at home. Bring all troops home within a year. [Impassioned] O: it was a mistake to go in from the start, cost over $1 Tn, lost troops, not safer as a consequence, surge did improve security. E: would listen to uniformed military directly, but Brit withdrawal led to reduction of violence. No political progress made under US security. In first year, will pull out 40-50K troops, then rest over 9 months. Will listen to military on tactics. Must end occupation. R: bring troops back within a year. Sick of flying flags at half staff on a death, as Gov. Health care, schools, children. C: intensive dipomatic efforts, reverse Bush policy, must deal with Iraqis who helped us, eg translators. Last spring, mandated Bush administration tell us about planning for end of war, they are not and we must. [Break before new format, questioning session.] Scott Spradling, experience vs change, why do people like Obama more? C: That hurts my feelings [laughter, great comic timing]. Bush was president people felt they would enjoy a beer with, and not in power what he seemed. 35 yrs of change. Like and respect E and O -- but experienced. O: did not focus on Repubs attacks, was switching between them and football game (Redskins lost). Set up searchable database of spending to embarrass people who support bridge to nowhere. Can draw independents into coalition. R: I'm only one who has negotiated with NK and Saddam, has highest nat sec clearance. Scott Spradling: remember you came to Boston as Energy Sec., but now same debate over energy -- failure? R: we need (list of energy improvements, fuel efficiency, mass transit) and list of attempted achievements in past. Prior executive experience, relative youth a disadvantage? E: used to fighting irresponsible corporations, deeply personal fight for middle class. Scott Spradling: 6 yrs in Senate, what accomplished? E: patient's bill of rights was first act of new Dem majority in Senate. Natalie Sarkesian denied medical insurance payout till died. Need a president who will take these people on. Did so with McCain, proud of enactment. O: agree, and prohibited lobbyists from taking Reps to meals, or gifts. Bundling money is disclosable. C: reality break. Patient's bill did get through Senate but not House and Bush killed it. Lobbyist is chair of Obama's NH campaign. Energy bill 2005 was larded with give aways I voted against it & Obama voted for it. Words are not actions, even beautifully presented, must translate talk and feelings into reality. C: special ed act years ago, worked for health care for kids in WH. C: President Clinton changed deficit and took on special interests. [impassioned again] E: no corp lobbyists working for me in WH. Teddy Rvt took on monopolies, busted trusts. O: Bill Clinton did take on interests but we have not built in majority coalition. Sometimes there is a moment for inspiring change [impassioned]. R: Washington bickering is frustrating. As Governor, I feel the same way. Gave college for one year of national service. E: a fight for the American people against special interests. None of you, unlike Dodd and Gore, has favored a carbon tax. Is it a bad idea? R: need mandate to reduce emissions by a certain target, cap and trade system. Carbon tax is passed on to consumers. O: have to combine it with 100% option, to charge polluter for every emission. Can invest proceeds in environment. C: ... Talking about letting Bush tax cuts lapse? 2 Professors here would make $200K threshold. C: no only on the rich, not only the middle class. O: change Scott Spradling: health insurance and businesses, economy R: need line item veto, end to corp welfare, energy incentives, education. What said in campaign you would like to take back? C: one or two moments I would have taken back, but Dem stands in contrast to Repubs, who are not talking about issues that will really face the next president. R: Whizzer White not a good SC hero. E: teasing Hillary about jacket. O: many things but we have more in common, differences with Repubs. Top of Page