Election '06 Notes

Sixth year curse: normally costs President's party 20 seats in HR
unpopular and failing war in Iraq, with crescendo of casualities and attacks in October
receding tide of terrorism issue
Scandals damaging Republicans' moral claim to power

sex scandal of Rep. Mark Foley in October surprise
much larger Abramoff lobbying for cash scandal, especially sensitive issue in Midwest, potentially affecting many leading Republicans
broader context of K street project
voter exclusion scandal left over in Ohio from 2004, damaging Republican machine there

Disaffected Bush coalition: evangelicals feeling let down, had November surprise sex scandal of their own leadership
Economy growing, but not salient issue to voters after oil price reductions in late summer

Republicans emphasizing local issues, distancing from President and from war in Iraq
Republicans having plenty of cash for campaign but few themes to use
Democrats using President in their TV ads against local Republicans

Democrats running against President rather than for a positive manifesto of policies
Rahm Emmanuel's congressional campaign committee tries to target resources on close races
Howard Dean's DNC tries full-court press

Electoral tide: a shift of several points from Republican to Democrat across all groups

A British type swing election (reversing 1994), in which almost all groups, even those heavily Republican, across whole country, swung towards Democrats

Times series data from NYT exit polls, by party ID and demographics: These groups all swung towards Democrats compared to several recent elections

Highest Independent voting for the Democrats in years, among all types of Independents.
Even upper income groups
Even those who thought standard of living getting better
Even groups of Republicans
Urban, rural and suburban voters
all major religious groups

South: Dems actually lost some % compared to 2004
black voters steady, highly Democratic as normal
Those who disapproved of the presidential performance, surprisingly more likely to vote for Bush
Black women and Republican women, no change from 2004

House: a shift from Republican to Democratic control, 229-196 seats, Dems +28

Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld resigned after election, following criticism by retired military leaders
Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco) likely to be first female Speaker of House

DNC chair, Howard Dean, suggests Dems will call for draw down of forces in Iraq spread over 2007.
Pelosi and Rangell call for cooperation, bipartisan work

talk of increasing minimum wage and cutting Alternative Minimum Tax before any more controversial measures

About 1.2 million turned out Tuesday, close to half of the state's 2.5 million registered voters. Of those, 717,287 cast ballots for Riley. -- B'ham News

Republicans ... pointed principally to Gov. Bob Riley's re-election romp over Lt. Gov. Lucy Baxley, Beth Chapman's ouster of embattled Secretary of State Nancy Worley, and Attorney General Troy King's win over John Tyson Jr., Mobile County's district attorney. -- Mobile Press-Register
"partisan commitment of Alabamians remains weak," Stewart said, noting that the once Democratically dominated state has shifted to the GOP in most federal and gubernatorial races, while continuing to split ballots for other state and local offices. -- Mobile Press-Register
"Democratic-drawn district lines and the majority's commanding money advantage." -- Mobile Press-Register
Gov. Riley (R) reelected with 58% over Baxley 42%

economy growing, better campaign speaking and TV ads
Lt. Gov Folsom (D) beat Strange (R) despite major ad campaign
Folsom or Cobb possible contenders for governor in 2010 -- Mobile Press-Register
sixth consecutive statewide election, voters on Tuesday divided the state's top two offices between the parties. -- Mobile Press-Register
Democrat Jim Folsom Jr., a former governor and lieutenant governor, edged Birmingham lobbyist-lawyer Luther Strange -- Mobile Press-Register

Democrats also now control two of three Public Service Commission seats. -- Mobile Press-Register

"Democratic Party added to its probate, circuit and district judgeships.
The Republican Party made gains in circuit clerks, while
the party division on sheriffs didn't change," -- Phil Rawls, AP, 11/9/06
Democrat Sue Bell Cobb foiled Republican Drayton Nabers' attempt for a full term as Alabama Supreme Court chief justice. Nabers served as Riley's state finance director -- Mobile Press-Register
"Democrats also picked up seven district and circuit judgeships around the state and won local offices in usually Republican areas" -- Mobile Press-Register

Republicans did pick up two seats in the Senate, -- Mobile Press-Register
Republicans with just 12 of the chamber's 35 seats, -- Mobile Press-Register
Senate, the ruling Democratic majority led by Lowell Barron of Fyffe appeared to hold its ground -- Mobile Press-Register

Democrats emerged with the same 62-43 House majority they had before. Barring an unforeseen upset, that breakdown should yield Democrat Seth Hammett of Andalusia a third term as speaker of the House. -- Mobile Press-Register