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Election '06 Analysis:
Notes | Maps & Charts
| Deval Patrick (D-MA) & Sen. Obama
at Rally
revised 9 Nov. '06 by Jeremy
Lewis.
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Context of campaign
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Sixth year curse: normally costs President's
party 20 seats in HR
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unpopular and failing war in Iraq, with
crescendo of casualities and attacks in October
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receding tide of terrorism issue
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Scandals damaging Republicans' moral claim to
power
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sex scandal of Rep. Mark Foley in October surprise
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much larger Abramoff lobbying for cash scandal,
especially sensitive issue in Midwest, potentially affecting many leading
Republicans
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broader context of K street project
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voter exclusion scandal left over in Ohio from
2004, damaging Republican machine there
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Disaffected Bush coalition: evangelicals
feeling let down, had November surprise sex scandal of their own leadership
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Economy growing, but not salient issue
to voters after oil price reductions in late summer
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Campaign Strategy:
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Republicans emphasizing local issues, distancing
from President and from war in Iraq
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Republicans having plenty of cash for campaign
but
few themes to use
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Democrats using President in their TV ads
against local Republicans
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Democrats running against President rather than
for a positive manifesto of policies
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Rahm Emmanuel's congressional campaign committee
tries to target resources on close races
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Howard Dean's DNC tries full-court press
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President truncating his speaking campaign, belatedly
drops "stay the course"
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Electoral tide: a shift of several points
from Republican to Democrat across all groups
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A British type swing election (reversing
1994), in which almost all groups, even those heavily Republican, across
whole country, swung towards Democrats
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Times series data from NYT exit polls, by
party ID and demographics: These groups all swung towards Democrats compared
to several recent elections
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Highest Independent voting for the Democrats
in years, among all types of Independents.
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Even upper income groups
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Even those who thought standard of living getting
better
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Even groups of Republicans
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Urban, rural and suburban voters
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all major religious groups
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Minor Exceptions:
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South: Dems actually lost some % compared to
2004
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black voters steady, highly Democratic as normal
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Those who disapproved of the presidential performance,
surprisingly more likely to vote for Bush
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Black women and Republican women, no change from
2004
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Results:
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House: a shift from Republican to Democratic
control, 229-196 seats, Dems +28
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Dems gained 28 seats by Thursday, far more than
usual 20 seats turned over
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Democrats' leaders are liberals (Pelosi, Rangel,
Dingell)
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Democrats' caucus is more moderate
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Senate: overall Democratic majority 51-49
seats
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Republicans lost 6 seats to Democrats in Midwest
and northern plains
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Close wins for Democrats in MT and VA, fairly
close in MO
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Substantial victory in OH and PA
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2 independents from CT (Lieberman) and from VT
(Sanders) caucus with Democrats
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Republicans held across most of South and Southwest
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Democrats held across country
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state legislatures and governorships turned
over to Democrats
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Governors: Democrats +6, 28-22 (reversal of
previous)
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Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld resigned after
election, following criticism by retired military leaders
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Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco) likely to be first
female
Speaker of House
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Policy changes?
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DNC chair, Howard Dean, suggests Dems will call
for draw down of forces in Iraq spread over 2007.
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Pelosi and Rangell call for cooperation, bipartisan
work
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talk of increasing minimum wage and cutting Alternative
Minimum Tax before any more controversial measures
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Alabama?
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About 1.2 million turned out Tuesday, close to half of the state's
2.5
million registered voters. Of those, 717,287 cast ballots for Riley.
-- B'ham News
on Wednesday claimed success, as well, despite their failure
to reach their most lofty goals of effective legislative control.
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Republicans ... pointed principally to Gov. Bob Riley's re-election
romp over Lt. Gov. Lucy Baxley, Beth Chapman's ouster of embattled Secretary
of State Nancy Worley, and Attorney General Troy King's win over John Tyson
Jr., Mobile County's district attorney. -- Mobile Press-Register
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"partisan commitment of Alabamians remains weak," Stewart said, noting
that the once Democratically dominated state has shifted to the GOP
in most federal and gubernatorial races, while continuing to split ballots
for other state and local offices. -- Mobile Press-Register
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"Democratic-drawn district lines and the majority's commanding money
advantage." -- Mobile Press-Register
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Gov. Riley (R) reelected with 58% over
Baxley 42%
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economy growing, better campaign speaking and
TV ads
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Lt. Gov Folsom (D) beat Strange (R) despite major
ad campaign
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Folsom or Cobb possible contenders for governor in 2010 -- Mobile
Press-Register
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sixth consecutive statewide election, voters on Tuesday divided the
state's top two offices between the parties. -- Mobile Press-Register
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Democrat Jim Folsom Jr., a former governor and lieutenant governor,
edged Birmingham lobbyist-lawyer Luther Strange -- Mobile Press-Register
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Executive:
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Democrats also now control two of three Public Service Commission seats.
--
Mobile Press-Register
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Judges: Democrats gained, e.g. Sue Bell
Cobb
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"Democratic Party added to its probate, circuit and district judgeships.
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The Republican Party made gains in circuit clerks, while
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the party division on sheriffs didn't change," -- Phil Rawls, AP,
11/9/06
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Democrat Sue Bell Cobb foiled Republican Drayton Nabers' attempt for
a full term as Alabama Supreme Court chief justice. Nabers served as Riley's
state finance director -- Mobile Press-Register
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"Democrats also picked up seven district and circuit judgeships around
the state and won local offices in usually Republican areas" -- Mobile
Press-Register
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Senate:
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Republicans did pick up two seats in the Senate, -- Mobile
Press-Register
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Republicans with just 12 of the chamber's 35 seats, -- Mobile
Press-Register
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Senate, the ruling Democratic majority led by Lowell Barron of Fyffe
appeared to hold its ground -- Mobile Press-Register
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House:
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Democrats emerged with the same 62-43 House majority they had before.
Barring an unforeseen upset, that breakdown should yield Democrat Seth
Hammett of Andalusia a third term as speaker of the House. -- Mobile
Press-Register
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Huntingdon College alumni:
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Judge Reese McKinney (R)
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Mary Sue McClurkin (R)
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Judge Lucie McLemore (R) defeated