Huntingdon College: Political Science, Program | PSC 311 | PSC 305 | What's New?
Election Results, 2004.
Compiled for classes, by Jeremy Lewis , revised on 3 Nov. '04.
  • The biggest causal factors in voting this time were not atittudes to the economy, but attitudes to traditional values (favoring Bush) and the wars against terrorism (Bush) and in Iraq (Kerry).
  • Bush's coalition (51% as of the morning after the election) comprised a majority of these groups:
  • married mothers ("Security moms") concerned about safety from terrorists.
  • those citing terrorism as most salient issue.
  • gun owners.
  • increased numbers of fundamentalist christians (he repeatedly used the term "faith" in speeches.)
  • those favoring traditional values (see above)
  • married people
  • white males
  • some Hispanics, about 40% of them this time, an increase for the Republicans.
  • those who thought presidential character based on strong leadership and clear values.
  • Plus the usual suspects among the Republican base since 1980:
  • white males (as usual)
  • the retired
  • gun owners
  • military and retired military
  • the usual wealthier & more educated Republican classes.
  • the usual southern, eastern seaboard, plains and mountain states.
  • Bush successfully kept the debate framed on national security, faith and traditional values.
  • Kerry's coalition (48% as of the morning after the election) comprised a majority of these groups:
  • single women (if not married women)
  • young adults (under 29) including students -- but they remained only 17% of voters.
  • those citing the War in Iraq (against) as most salient issue
  • those citing the economy or health care as most salient issue
  • those who thought presidential character based on intelligence or caring for people like me.
  • Plus the usual Democratic suspects since 1932:
  • trade union members (whose numbers have declined)
  • African Americans
  • Jews
  • Catholics (less so this time among male Catholics)
  • lower income and less educated classes.
  • north eastern states plus some middle westerners and the west coast.
  • Kerry may regret a lost opportunity at the Dem. convention, in which he pitched closely to the national security theme rather than trying to reframe the debate on other issues.
  • The US House will be more heavily Republican than before, the Senate slightly (55) more Republican than before.
  • Sen. Dem. leader Tom Daschle lost his seat, an historic event.
  • There were few offsetting Democratic gains except for Barack Obama's victory in Illinois.
  • A majority of state Governors and legislatures (27?) will remain Republican -- a reversal of the previous generation of leadership, 1945 - 1980.
  • No president has been rejected in a wartime re-election bid.
  • the challenger established a record challenge vote by wartime standards.
  • In peacetime, Bush's low (barely 50%) approval rating and lackluster economic figures would probably have cost him re-election.  Hence his national security campaign strategy looks a good one.
  • The president has the largest absolute vote ever, as the electorate increased.
  • Turnout rose and young people's turnout rose with the rest of the electorate.
  • There are at least weak signs of a young generation returning to the Democrats.