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PSC 201: American Government

• The traditional spectrum for analyzing political ideologies, from Left (communist) to Right (Conservative), is based on the single dimension of belief in government control of the economy (Left) versus free market (Right)
• The US spectrum of ideology is only the right half of the rich-countries spectrum.  Socialism and communism are generally not acceptable in the US. Liberals, the Left of the US spectrum, are the center of the West European spectrum.
• Janda offers a two dimensional model, based on Freedom (Left) versus Order (Right) and government action to advance Freedom (down) versus Equality (up).
• That gives us four quadrants: high (Equality) and left (Freedom) is Liberal
• High (Equality) and Right (Order) is Communitarian
• Low (Freedom) and Left (Freedom) is Libertarian
• Low (Freedom) and Right (Order) is Conservative
• Most of the class (though by no means all) proclaimed conservatism (several were libertarian or communitarian).
• Some members of the class proclaimed conservatism -- but when it came to rules of their own behavior in the dorms, sounded like liberals!
• Conservatism has changed over time.  Conservative students may not want to return to the formal dress codes of the 1950s.
• There are varieties of conservatism: economic and moral issues produce different flavors of conservatism.

presidential elections only?

do we as citizens have enough information?

can we collectively make a rational choice?

Why govern by representatives, not directly by referenda?

Lobbyists: give information, support, money

interest groups in competition for political benefits

do they establish an equilibrium?

in the pluralist heaven, does the choir sing with an upper class accent?

do potential groups fill gaps by becoming actual groups?

The Tea party movement calls for a return to the C18th ideals of small government and minimal taxes, enshrined in the original US Constitution.
Some US Supreme Court justices (eg Clarence Thomas) and leading law scholars (e.g. Richard Bork) call for original interpretation

• But interpreting the original intent is complex, requires historical understanding and sense of multiple intents of Founders.

• enumerated powers of Congress in article I
• enumerated powers of Presidency in article II,
• proscriptions on US action
• (no bills of attainder, no ex post facto laws, difficult to prove Treason, no religious tests in Article VI)
• difficult to amend Constitution

• common defense and general Welfare clause, in preamble giving purpose
• elastic clause: make all laws necessary and proper
• commerce clause: Congress regulates commerce among the states
• C-in-C clause, permits military expansion and prescribes power over state militia
• supremacy clause (US over the states)
• Courts left open to expansion (Article III)
• Presidency left open to expansion (Article II)
• Bureaucracy left open to expansion

money bills, shared power

treaties made by President and Senate

Appointments made by President and Senate

Veto and pocket veto awarded to President (but not line-item veto)

slavery not mentioned, but is implied in dirty 3/5 compromise

• It may appear that politicians are more scandalous, but it is likely that they actually behave better than before Watergate.
• examples: compare Clinton to Kennedy; Nixon knowledgeable of public policy but brought down by scandal
• It appears that under 30s have less civic knowledge than a previous generation had
• but is it caused by the people or by the media -- or both?
• the media have changed in recent years, losing their focus on straight news in favor of more pungent opinions
• there are more media outlets now, which put them in intense competition for audience and advertising
• there is little foreign news, except when there are spectacular visuals, in wars or protests
• social media and the internet have risen at the expense of broadcast and print media
• but is this a good or bad trend for civic knowledge?

• How accurate is Gallup's prediction of presidential elections, the week beforehand?
• Showed chart of historical predictions (Janda, Essentials, p.115)

Journalists and editors make framing choices of what issues to discuss
Example of Christian Coalition's rise in Iowa 1996 via 'stealth campaign' -- not selected until later, after the event.

Sampling

sample size 150-400-700-1,200 = N
with likely voters (difficult to predict)
margin of sampling error (sample matches universe) +/- 3% pts

formula is based on a square root, inversely related to size of sample

random sample, every seventh number or person on street
structured sample (by ethnicity, income, location)

don't predict voting just by questioning shoppers in mall (consumers, not voters)

questions

no dichotomies -- unless indexed?
one/two tailed wording
no skewing questions or push polling (to spread Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt)

answer categories

Likert scale of 4/5 answers -- with or without neutral in center
dont knows

Desired characteristics to predict a universe of voters at 95% confidence level (15/20 times)

reliable
valid

strategy: telephone v in-person polling, RDD
Accuracy of early polling in 1940s:

Gallup in US or mass observation in UK? Postwar shock of Labour defeating Churchill

• From parties to elections and campaigns: American exceptionalism.
• Registration, Primary and general elections (need to vote three times, affects participation)
• Low turnout, second to Switzerland

(but Swiss are contented, plus they run policy via referenda)

• Election finance: almost unlimited spending by candidates
• Candidate-centered campaigns
• Voters have only moderate party loyalty
• Split ticket voting
• cf. in Europe, voters vote for party rather than candidate
• State Parties: are only national organizations to some degree and only once every four years.
• Elections and parties are run state by state (cf. national in Europe)
• Demographics: red and blue states based on population and cultural traditions
• 3 'R's: Region, Race, Religion

Contrast with postwar Britain where Conservatives held thumping majorities in South East England and country areas; Labour in Wales, north of England and industrial cities of Scotland.

In UK, Church of England used to be Conservative party at prayer; Methodists and Baptists were socialist in Wales, Presbytery liberal in Scotland.

Where are the regional party bases in US and Alabama politics?

Where are the local party areas in Alabama: city, suburb, rural; north, central and south?

What are the religious bases of parties in US?

• Social Class

little deference to upper class in US -- Tocquevillian, but not Burkean

little working class identity: most WC say are middle class

little working class attachment to socialism (President Debs?)

social class explains much of postwar European politics -- but in US, only one factor

Social class less important in C21st Europe, more like US (convergence?)

• Demographic movement

Census data every ten years help parties develop strategy

• Party coalitions established by each new presidential campaign
• The New Deal memorial coalition of Jimmy Carter, 1980
• American campaigns and elections system is unique:
• long, decentralized, and heavily funded
• candidate centered rather than party centered
• heavily media based, increasingly negative
• phases: "money primary", winnowing season, consolidation phase [slide]
• before convention, decision on nomination is essentially locked in
• front loaded: IA caucuses and NH primary attract heavy attention early
• after Super Tuesday, few candidates able to continue
• American parties, as we have seen, are exceptional
• only mild loyalty of members
• only mild ideological attachment and differences
• in most states, cannot even choose (nominate) candidates without primary elections
• declining further in interest (true of other liberal democracies also)
• straight ticket giving way to split ticket
• still, presidential candidates expect most of party identifiers to vote for them [slide]
• Voter behavior has changed greatly in last generation:
• White South has switched
• Women have developed separate economic interest and support government benefits
• Turnout is low and gradually decreasing, only half turnout even for presidency
• bonds of party have loosened
• fickleness has increased, new issues salient each year
• Polling: benchmark, tracking, trend, focus group -- and push poll
• example, in IA found '92 election gender gap across issues and candidates
• Media are an independent variable (have their own effects), whether free or paid
• powerful tool but high cost requires fundraising
• favor candidates with charm and timing, rather than deep policy knowledge
• sound bites have powerful effect, replace full speeches in coverage
• news has less substance now than tv spots (except PBS News Hour)
• contrast ads not same as negative, attack ads
• emphasis on visuals favors cuteness over substance
• negative spots tend to lower trust in other candidate -- and overall, in politics
• new group media and internet: example of JibJab cartoons' popularity
• New environment -- whether better or worse -- requires different skills for survival
• unlike League of Women Voters or Girls' State
• fundraising ability: millions for congress, tens of millions for presidency
• television speaking ability: charm, timing, sound bites
• Clinton example of new style politician, turned in 1994 Democratic loss to triangulation, won reelection in 1996.
• but state of economy strong, biggest factor.
• Incumbent advantages not removed by new environment: never need to fund own campaigns

Should we limit campaign fundraising and spending?

Should we publicly fund US campaigns?

Should we eliminate independent (527) organization spending?

Should we eliminate primaries -- and let parties choose their own nominees?

Is American politics too polarized?

Do we need a new, center party in the US?

Will the Republican party dominate the South for the next generation?

Will the Democratic party dominate Congress for the next generation?

Will Hispanics determine the future of US politics for the next generation?

Notes from discussion, Monday October 19, 2009

A. Primary elections in America choose candidate for a particular party that will run for the general election. [This doubles the number of elections]

B. Citizens register themselves to vote
 - Help American Voters Act, or the “Motor-Voter Act,” was designed to aid Americans in the
   process of registering to vote.  [This triples the effective number of elections]

C. America has the second lowest voter turnout.
 -Presidential elections- 50-52%
 -Off years, like Congress- 40%
 -Local elections- 20%
 -SGA at state colleges- 8%

D. United States, exceptional
 -Americans vote based more on the individual, rather than the party
 -[+ candidate-centered campaigns]
 -Published opinion polls
 -Almost unlimited television ads
 -Campaigns are run state-by-state, creating separate politics
 -Peoples' votes [float] between political parties
 -[Parties only come together nationally every four years; in between, only RNC/DNC]

E. Circumstances affect voters
 -A Methodist in Alabama would be conservative, but a Methodist in Wales would be Socialist.
 -People who live in rural areas in both places would tend to be conservative.
 -[Episcopalians in US liberal -- but in Bournemouth, southern England, Conservative]

F. Americans won’t tolerate a strong leadership
 -Newt Gingrich wrote up [Contract with America] in 1994 [and Republicans won historic majority in HR]
 -his leadership [as Speaker] only lasted only two years [before he was deposed by his own party]
 -In the United States, party leadership is weaker than places like Great Britain

G. Americans have several reasons for voting for an individual, [other than party]
 -May vote for personal relationship
 -May vote for a candidates ability to get school buildings or roads in their town [localism]
 -May vote based on “hatch, match, or dispatch” letters

H. Should the money spent on campaigns be limited? If so, Why?
 -Uneven spending causes uneven publicity.
 -Just because a candidate isn’t as rich, doesn’t mean his ideas aren’t better.

  -a bicameral system, which has geographical representatives
 -Who to put in the house?

  -Could do it by classes or estates, as in old France
  -The U.S, standard is by districts, because it was already operating under this model

 -How many votes should each state receive?

   -Virginia Plan-favored large states
  -New Jersey plan- favored small states
  -Great Compromise
   -Number of House representative is decided by population.
   -Number of Senate members is always the same, 2 for every state
  -In the European Union, there is a [qualified] majority vote of states and votes, apportioned
    to the population. Since there is no Senate, there is [less development of] a political class [Siedentop, following de Tocqueville].

  -Population Shifts

   -Every “2 year” of the decade, the national census is taken, and districts are redrawn. Currently, the trend is more districts moving to the South.

 -Divisions of Duties

  -Ratification power of foreign treaties belongs to the Senate.
  -Revenue, money, tax, or spending bills have to originate in the House.
   -This custom came from the House of Commons in England, who were the property owners, and thus decided taxes.

  -Power to declare war belongs to Congress as a whole.

  -Raising an army and navy belongs to both, and was originally opposed by the Jeffersonians, because they resented the redcoats.
   -Eventually, after the War of 1812 people saw the benefits
    -Barbary Pirates attacked the spice and silk trading ships, and held hostages for ransom.

  -Power of Impeachment is possessed by the House, and trial by the Senate.

   -Equivalent to an indictment in court of an official, claiming what they have done wrong
   -The Supreme Court Chief justice presides over the trial, with case for removal made by the House committee.
   - Andrew Johnson was acquitted only with the vote of his VP
   - Clinton was acquitted and the public sided with him, against the Republican accusers. [Nixon resigned rather than face conviction for campaign corruption]

  -The Senate also has the power to confirm Supreme Court judges.

   -almost all are approved, and we hear about the controversial cases only.
increasing tendency to "Bork" the high profile nominees, though (Clarence Thomas)

  -The power to confirm treaties with foreign powers belongs to the Senate.

   -Although Woodrow Wilson campaigned for the League of Nations, a brilliant idea, the Senate lacked 2 votes to approve the U.S. joining.
   -Jimmy Carter proposed the Panama Canal Treaty, which was unpopular.
    -There was rioting in Panama, caused by stress of American Colonization. The Treaty gave the canal to Panama, but included a clause for the right for the military to return. They did, under Bush (41), to depose Gen Noriega.

Electing Congress
 -Incumbency Effect

  -Advantage lies in name recognition [and delivering benefits to district]
  -The Party deficiencies in American make it harder for Congressional leaders to get their name out there.
   -Color coding in England makes it easy to identify with a party-- but no coding in US.
   -Candidate-centered electoral order: Americans vote for individuals.
   -Sophomore surge desired -- but a scandal without a quick response makes the incumbent easier to defeat.
  -Incumbents receive seven times more money than challenging candidates.
   -Republicans usually receive more than Democrats. Corporate and professional associations give generously.

• quid pro quo is illegal as bribery; benefits can only be given in general

Non-partisan movements frequently occur (in 2011, AmericansElect.org)
Minor parties can attract new voters who join a major party 2-4 years later (Perotistas 1992, Tea Party 2010).

 -Redistricting

  -Different in the U.S. -- no neutral boundary commissions, but is done every decade
   -Not bipartisan, which creates a more normal rectangular shape,

• but highly partisan, dictated by the majority in state legislatures.
• Geographic info systems are a high priority for legislatures' technology.
• Republicans successful in 2010, winning majorities before redistricting (historic in AL)

   -gerrymandering is done to eliminate challengers.
    -Is not unconstitutional, except if based on race, to achieve

• removal of black representation (Tuskegee, 1960s)
• "majority minority" districts (the NC interstate district, 2002)

Governing

HR larger, more fractious, and more rule bound, time bound

Very little debate is actually confrontational: serial speeches to empty chamber are normal

Senate smaller, loose rules, loose calendars, 98% of business by UC agreements

HR much more partisan since 1995, and Senate only moderately so

formerly 50-50-50 rule in HR 1945-1995

Gingrich revolution: British style opposition and manifesto ("contract")

Traditionally HR guardian of taxpayers, Senate more the policy visionary body

Tax bills begin in HR, owing to Commons tradition

Exceptionally large staffs, exceptional percentage of lawyers

Senate also is plutocracy

Bills derived from lobbyists in W. Bush admin, also from non-profits in Obama admin.

Bills considered for twenty years in Congress before opportunity taken to legislate.

Typical bill becomes law diagram is misleading.

Provisions of Article II, focussed on Hamilton's issues of taxation; coinage, and war power.
Elastic clause and interstate commerce clause.

Differences in folkways between HR and Senate.
Differences in rules of debate between HR and Senate.
Time for debate and rule committee (HR) versus filibustering & UC agreements, holds (Senate)
Thousands of bills introduced but die in committees, only about 400 emerging per year on floor, and many co-sponsor the succeeding bill, especially in Senate.
Wide distribution of subcommittee chairs and staff, since LBJ in the 1950s in Senate, and 1970 in HR.

Speaker Gingrich attempted role of British PM -- successfully but only in short term.

Contract (like UK manifesto) and partisan voting, majoritarian style
but Congress most of the time is pluralistic, and earmarks are a sign of interest group pluralism
American voters not interested in straight party ticket, and color coded parties, unlike European voters